ulster bank ireland dac/media/files/r/rbs-ir/credit-ratings/... · financial institutions credit...

11
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland Long Term CRR A2 Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating - Fgn Curr Long Term Deposit Baa1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Positive Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Arif Bekiroglu +44.20.7772.1713 AVP-Analyst [email protected] Romy Van Rooij +44.20.7772.1638 Associate Analyst [email protected] Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Nick Hill +33.1.5330.1029 MD-Banking [email protected] Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Interim update on credit analysis Summary Ulster Bank Ireland DAC (UBID)'s deposit and issuer ratings are positioned at Baa1/Prime-2 and Baa2/Prime-2, both with a positive outlook. These ratings are underpinned by (1) the bank’s Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba1; (2) the very high probability of affiliate support from its UK ring-fenced sister companies, National Westminster Bank Plc (NatWest Bank , A1 positive, baa1) and the Royal Bank of Scotland plc (RBS , A1 positive, baa1) 1 , resulting in an adjusted BCA of baa2; and (3) the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, resulting in a one-notch LGF uplift from the bank’s adjusted BCA for UBID’s deposits. Our assumption of a low likelihood of support from the Government of Ireland (A2 stable), in case of need, results in no additional notching uplift to the ratings. The bank's long and short term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) and Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) are A2/Prime-1 and A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr), respectively. UBID's BCA of ba1 reflects (1) the successful deleveraging measures undertaken by the bank in order to restore its balance sheet, leading to a reduction of 83% in impaired loans to €3.2 billion (14% of gross loans) at December 2017 from the peak level of €19.2 billion (44.6% of gross loans) at December 2013; (2) very high capital levels, which will remain elevated despite our expectation of a decline over the outlook period following dividend payments to RBS; (3) weak, but improving quality of earnings and pre-provision profitability; and (4) balanced funding profile and comfortable liquidity position. The high likelihood of affiliate support reflects our view that (i) UBID will remain an integral part of the ring-fenced banking group and that (ii) The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBSG , Baa2 positive, Baa2) will maintain its historically high commitment to UBID. Exhibit 1 Key Financial Ratios 17.9% 32.3% -0.4% 9.7% 24.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Ulster Bank Ireland DAC (BCA: ba1) Median ba1-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors UBID figures as of 31 Dec 2017 Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

Upload: others

Post on 26-Jun-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION24 January 2019

Update

RATINGS

Ulster Bank Ireland DACDomicile Dublin, Ireland

Long Term CRR A2

Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating- Fgn Curr

Long Term Deposit Baa1

Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr

Outlook Positive

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Arif Bekiroglu [email protected]

Romy Van Rooij +44.20.7772.1638Associate [email protected]

Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582Associate Managing [email protected]

Nick Hill [email protected]

Ulster Bank Ireland DACInterim update on credit analysis

SummaryUlster Bank Ireland DAC (UBID)'s deposit and issuer ratings are positioned at Baa1/Prime-2and Baa2/Prime-2, both with a positive outlook. These ratings are underpinned by (1) thebank’s Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba1; (2) the very high probability of affiliatesupport from its UK ring-fenced sister companies, National Westminster Bank Plc (NatWestBank, A1 positive, baa1) and the Royal Bank of Scotland plc (RBS, A1 positive, baa1)1, resultingin an adjusted BCA of baa2; and (3) the application of our Advanced Loss Given Failure(LGF) analysis, resulting in a one-notch LGF uplift from the bank’s adjusted BCA for UBID’sdeposits. Our assumption of a low likelihood of support from the Government of Ireland (A2stable), in case of need, results in no additional notching uplift to the ratings. The bank's longand short term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRR) and Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) areA2/Prime-1 and A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr), respectively.

UBID's BCA of ba1 reflects (1) the successful deleveraging measures undertaken by the bankin order to restore its balance sheet, leading to a reduction of 83% in impaired loans to €3.2billion (14% of gross loans) at December 2017 from the peak level of €19.2 billion (44.6%of gross loans) at December 2013; (2) very high capital levels, which will remain elevateddespite our expectation of a decline over the outlook period following dividend paymentsto RBS; (3) weak, but improving quality of earnings and pre-provision profitability; and (4)balanced funding profile and comfortable liquidity position.

The high likelihood of affiliate support reflects our view that (i) UBID will remain an integralpart of the ring-fenced banking group and that (ii) The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc(RBSG, Baa2 positive, Baa2) will maintain its historically high commitment to UBID.

Exhibit 1

Key Financial Ratios

17.9% 32.3%-0.4%

9.7% 24.0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Ulster Bank Ireland DAC (BCA: ba1) Median ba1-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

UBID figures as of 31 Dec 2017Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

Page 2: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit Strengths

» Strong capital ratios, which we expect to decline owing to dividend payments, but to remain adequate in relation to the bank's riskprofile;

» Solid funding profile, primarily made of deposits and long-term funding;

» Comfortable liquidity position, supported by a portfolio of high-quality liquid assets.

Credit Challenges

» Sizeable stock of problem loans, although declining and adequately provisioned, and large share of loans in forbearance andnegative equity;

» Weak pre-provision profitability, although expected to gradually improve over the outlook period.

Rating OutlookDeposit and issuer ratings of UBID carry positive outlooks, in line with the outlook on UBID's UK ring-fenced sister companies fromwhich we incorporate a very high probability of affiliate support, in case of need.

Factors that Could Lead to an UpgradeUBID's BCA could be upgraded if the bank continues to strengthen its credit fundamentals, reduces the amount of legacy and non-performing assets on its balance sheet and improves its pre-provision profitability.

UBID's deposit and issuer ratings would likely be upgraded if the adjusted BCA were to be upgraded. Additionally, alterations to UBID'sliability structure may change the notches of uplift provided by our Advanced LGF analysis and lead to higher notching from the bank'sAdjusted BCA, thereby improving the local-currency deposit rating notching.

Factors that Could Lead to a DowngradeUBID's BCA could be downgraded due to a decline in its capital levels beyond that already factored into Moody's assessment; asignificant increase in the use of market funding; or a deterioration in the bank's liquidity position.

A downgrade in UBID's long-term debt and deposit ratings could be triggered if the approved ring-fencing reorganization of RBSG wereto be materially modified or in the case of significant dependence on secured funding sources, which would result in higher loss givenfailure for depositors under our LGF analysis.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Ulster Bank Ireland DAC (Consolidated Financials) [1]12-172 12-162 12-152 12-142 12-133 CAGR/Avg.4

Total Assets (EUR million) 30,248 30,694 31,019 33,841 35,375 -3.85

Total Assets (USD million) 36,322 32,375 33,696 40,949 48,745 -7.15

Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) 6,402 6,484 7,834 6,527 4,611 8.65

Tangible Common Equity (USD million) 7,688 6,839 8,510 7,898 6,354 4.95

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 14.0 15.9 23.9 43.5 44.6 28.46

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 32.3 30.9 29.9 21.0 11.9 28.57

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 42.3 47.2 53.9 89.9 100.0 66.76

Net Interest Margin (%) 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.36

PPI / Average RWA (%) -0.5 -0.4 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.27

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 3: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) -0.4 0.4 3.5 6.9 -12.8 -0.56

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 115.7 115.2 73.4 62.1 74.2 88.16

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 9.7 12.8 12.3 17.9 28.1 16.26

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 24.0 23.6 21.7 19.0 16.3 20.96

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 117.1 123.5 149.9 193.0 224.2 161.56

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS. [3] Basel II; IFRS. [4] May include rounding differencesdue to scale of reported amounts. [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of periods presented for thelatest accounting regime. [7] Simple average of Basel III periods presented.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

ProfileUBID is a full service retail and commercial bank. The bank is ultimately owned by RBSG. As of 31 December 2017, UBID's asset shareamong Irish domestic credit institutions was 9.1%2, based on its total consolidated assets of €30.2 billion. UBID provides bankingservices to individuals, companies and institutions in the Republic of Ireland.

The bank was founded in 2001 following the restructuring of Ulster Bank Group (Ulster Bank Limited (UBL) and its subsidiaries), whichoffered retail and corporate banking services in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. In order to simplify its legal structure,UBL transferred its banking business in the Republic of Ireland to UBID, in accordance with the Central Bank Act 1971. For furtherinformation on the bank's profile see Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Key Facts and Statistics - FY Dec 2017.

Detailed Credit ConsiderationsThe financial data in the following sections are sourced from UBID's consolidated financial statements unless otherwise stated.

Despite rapid deleveraging, the stock of problem loans remains high; downside risks are aggravated by a large share offorborne loans and loans in negative equityWe view UBID's Asset Risk as high and given the remaining downside risks from a large stock of impaired loans, a large share offorborne loans and loans in negative equity, we assign a caa1 Asset Risk score, one notch below its Macro Adjusted score.

UBID was one of the most severely hit institutions by the recent financial crisis, but the bank undertook drastic efforts in loandeleveraging and the restoring of its balance sheet. In 2013 UBID’s parent company established the “RBS Capital ResolutionIreland” (RCRI) segment to manage an accelerated reduction in the Group’s non-performing capital intensive assets. A portfolio of €4.8billion of net assets was identified to be managed by RCRI, which has now been entirely run down.

The measures undertaken resulted in impaired loans reducing by 83% to €3.2 billion at December 2017 from the peak level of €19.2billion at December 2013. The reduction was primarily driven by the sale of non-performing portfolios, but the pace of migration tonewly impaired loans declined as well, supported by the improvement in Ireland's economic conditions as reflected in our outlookchange to positive from stable on the Irish Banking System. The vast majority of the remaining problem loans is concentrated inthe bank’s retail portfolio (€3 billion impaired, or 17% of lending to individuals). In line with other domestic banks, we expect thatUBID’s non-performing residential mortgages would normally require a long time to be worked out given the current low level ofrepossessions by Irish banks, which is not expected to materially change in the near term.

In August 2018, the bank agreed terms for the sale of a portfolio of non-performing mortgages, composed of both buy-to letand primary residences, of €1.4 billion (approx. 40% of 2017 reported impairments) to the private equity fund Cerberus CapitalManagement L.P. The sale marks an important step in UBID’s de-risking strategy. This was in line with UBID's announcement inFebruary 2018 that it would seek to dispose of a further portfolio of non-performing loans during 2018. The European Central Bank(ECB) expects banks to reduce their NPE ratios to normalised levels (circa 5%) by the end of 2019, versus UBID's 14% calculatedby Moody's per 2017 data. Given UBID will need to realise such assets over a shorter time frame than initially expected, additionalprovisions have been set aside in 2017.

Provision coverage of problem loans at 39% is lower than the level of peers, but when taking into account UBID’s higher capital level,we view the overall coverage of problem loans as adequate (problem loans over tangible common equity and loan loss reserves ratio of42% at December 2017 versus a range of 60%-115% for Irish peers).

3 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 4: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 3

The bank's deleveraging efforts resulted in a substantial improvement in asset quality, but the stock of problem loans remains relativelyhigh

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Impaired loans, €bn (LHS) Impaired loans/Gross loans, % (RHS)

Loan loss reserves/Impaired loans, %(RHS) Problem Loans/(Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve), %(RHS)

Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

In addition to the overall high level of problem loans UBID has a significant portion of loans in negative equity - 8% of loans as ofDecember 2017 (2016: 14%) had loan-to-value (LTV) ratio in excess of 100% at December 2017. The decline in the share of loans innegative equity has been supported by strong recovery in the Irish house prices.

Another area of concern is the large amount of forborne loans (€4.4 billion, 19% of gross loans as o December 2017), which we believehave a higher probability of falling back into non-performing. We also view negatively that the bank is overly reliant on less sustainablesolutions for customers, such as payment concessions (63% of forborne loans).

As a result, we view UBID’s Asset Risk as high, a factor which continues to weigh down the bank's standalone assessment.

Strong capital ratios which, although expected to decline, will remain adequate for the bank’s risk profileWe view UBID's capitalisation as strong, a key rating strength, assessing a score of a2 three notches down from its Macro Adjustedscore. The score also takes into account future dividend payments to the parent, the bank's currently weak ability to generate capitalorganically as well as the vulnerability of the capital position to a potential stress due to the still sizeable stock of problem loans.

Owing to the historical capital injections from RBS, deleveraging and improved underlying profitability over the past three years,UBID now benefits from solid capital levels. Its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) over risk weighted assets (RWA) increased to 31.2% atDecember 2017 (29.8% at December 2016), given the reduction in RWA achieved during the course of 2017. Following the year end,the CET1/RWA ratio reduced and is now in excess of 22%, as a result of the €1.5 billion dividend payment to RBS made in January 2018.As of Q3 2018, the CET1 over RWA was 24.2% and over total asset (leverage ratio) was 14.2% and continue to provide a good lossabsorption cushion.

Given the progress in deleveraging and de-risking of the bank and the return to underlying profitability, we expect that UBID willcontinue to repatriate capital to its parent over the outlook period. Nevertheless, any further capital repatriation is subject to theapproval of the joint supervisory team of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of Ireland who have set minimumcapital guidance and conditions for dividend payments. We therefore expect that UBID will maintain a level of capitalisation adequateto its risk profile.

Pre-provision profitability is weak, but we expect it to improve over the outlook periodWe assign a Profitability score of b3 to the bank, one notch higher than the Macro Adjusted score. The assigned score reflects ouranticipation of a gradual improvement in UBID's core profitability, but also takes into account the volatility of earnings and a possibilityof unexpected further conduct charges or credit losses.

These are a positive results compared to the net loss of €162 million in 2017 reported by UBID, down from a €37 million profit in 2016.The bank's bottom line profitability was impacted by an impairment loss of €68 million, down from a €138 million gain in 2016. The2017 gain had been driven by increased collateral values in the residential and commercial property improved market, and by the

4 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 5: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

release of provisions due to asset sales. Whilst collateral values continued to increase in 2017, UBID still suffered an impairment lossduring the year, driven by the provision set aside in preparation of a potential sale of a portion of its non-performing loan book.

Exhibit 4

UBID was loss-making again in 2017 due to legacy issues

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Loan loss provisions, €bn (LHS) Net income/Tangible assets, % (RHS)

Source: Moody's Banking Financial Metrics

UBID’s net interest income decreased by 4% to €471 million in 2017, as improved lending margins and re-pricing actions taken wereoffset by the lower income on free funds. The bank’s net interest margin improved to 1.50% in 2017 from 1.47% in 2016, according toour calculations, but remains low compared to higher rated peers, due to a larger proportion of tracker loans3. The NIM improvementwas supported by the funding cost reduction in H1 2018. Reported non-interest income decreased to €138 million from €177 millionin 2016, primarily driven by reduced income on interest rate swaps. We expect that the forecasted credit growth, combined with thereducing proportion of tracker mortgages which currently create a drag on the bank's NIM, will lead to an increase in pre-provisionprofitability over the outlook period.

The bank's cost base remains elevated and is a drag on profitability. We calculate 116% cost-to-income ratio in 2017, or 85% ifadjusted for conduct charges which the bank reports in operating costs. These indicators remained in line with 2016. In 2016 UBIDcommenced a bank-wide transformation programme, with realigning operating expenses to the resized balance sheet is one of itscentral areas of focus. We expect investments in the bank's digitalisation and simplification to start materialising into cost savings overthe course of the outlook period.

Since the launch of the Tracker Mortgage Examination by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI), UBID recorded a total income statementcharge of €298 million. Given the scale and complexity of the review, we believe some further conduct provisions are likely in thecoming years, but do not expect them to be at the level recorded in 2017.

Solid funding profile, primarily made of deposits and long-term fundingWe consider UBID’s the liquidity position a strength reflecting bank's moderate market reliance and sound levels of liquid assetsholdings.

We assing Funding score of a2 in-line with the Macro Adjusted score and do not expect any material changes in the bank's fundingstructure in the near term. The ongoing loan deleveraging, combined with an increased focus on long term (primarily secured) funding- the bank issued a mortgage backed bond of €1 billion in H1 2018, has materially reduced UBID’s funding gap and its reliance onparent funding, bringing its funding profile more in line with its Irish peers. The bank's gross loan-to-deposit ratio is still high at 117%at December 2017, but we expect it to decline further: the bank has demonstrated strong growth in deposit balances in 2016 (up 5%to €19.8 billion), while the loan book has continued to shrink. We calculate market funds over tangible banking assets ratio of 10% atDecember 2017 (2016: 12.8%), a level broadly in line with Irish peers.

5 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 6: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Comfortable liquidity position, supported by a portfolio of high-quality liquid assetsUBID holds a sound level of Liquid assets which we assign a score of baa2 in-line with the Macro Adjusted score. The bank's liquidbanking assets to tangible banking assets ratio was at sound 24% at December 2017 and we expect it to remain broadly stable over theoutlook period. The level of liquid assets notably improved over the last couple of years from 19% reported in 2014, largely driven bydeleveraging and limited new business lending.

Support and Structural ConsiderationsAffiliate SupportUBID's adjusted BCA of baa2 is currently based on our assessment of a very high probability of affiliate support from its UK ring-fencedsister companies, resulting in two notches of uplift from the ba1 BCA. We expect that (i) UBID will remain an integral part of the ring-fenced banking subgroup and that (ii) RBSG will maintain its historically high commitment to UBID.

Loss Given Failure analysisUBID is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime.As a result, in accordance with our methodology, we apply our LGF analysis, considering the risks faced by the different debt anddeposit classes across the liability structure should the bank enter resolution. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3% andlosses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in “junior” wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits,and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. We also assume that the junior proportion of UBID'sdeposits is in line with its estimated EU-wide average of 26%. These are in line with our standard assumptions.

RBSG has determined with its regulator that it would apply a so-called “Single Point of Entry” resolution strategy. Nevertheless, weconsider that, in the event of a failure of UBID, the risk to the bank's liabilities would likely be determined by its own balance sheetcharacteristics, rather than being fungible with those of the UK subsidiaries of RBSG. We therefore perform our Advanced LGF analysison the basis of UBID's own Republic of Ireland balance sheet.

Our advanced LGF analysis indicates that UBID's deposits are likely to face low loss-given-failure due to the loss absorption providedby the presence of a modest amount of subordinated debt in the UBID's liability structure, as well as the substantial volume of depositsthemselves. This results in the preliminary rating assessment (PRA) of baa1, one notch above the baa2 adjusted BCA.

The bank's issuer rating of Baa2 reflects the moderate loss-given-failure it is likely to face driven by the combination of no seniorunsecured debt in the liability structure and the modest amount of debt subordinated to it. This results in a PRA at the same level asthe adjusted BCA.

Government SupportWe assume a low likelihood of systemic support for UBID deposits in the event of its failure, given its moderate size in the Irish bankingsystem, resulting in no further rating uplift above the PR Assessments of deposits and senior unsecured debt. This assessment reflectsthat Irish banks operate in an environment that has materially weakened prospects of financial assistance from the government. TheBRRD is likely to restrict the ability of the government to provide such support, even if it were willing to do so, requiring losses to beimposed on senior creditors and large depositors under many circumstances.

Counterparty Risk RatingCRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honor the uncollateralized portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities (CRRliabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honored. CRR liabilities typically relate totransactions with unrelated parties. CRRs are distinct from ratings assigned to senior unsecured debt instruments and from issuerratings because they reflect that, in a resolution, CRR liabilities might benefit from preferential treatment compared with seniorunsecured debt. Examples of CRR liabilities include the uncollateralized portion of payables arising from derivatives transactions andthe uncollateralized portion of liabilities under sale and repurchase agreements.

UBID's Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) are A2/Prime-1.

The bank's CRR takes into account the level of subordination to CRR liabilities in the bank's balance sheet, and assumes a nominalvolume of such liabilities. Our advanced LGF approach provides three notches of uplift to the CRR above the adjusted BCA. The CRRis higher than UBID's deposit rating, reflecting our view that secured counterparties to banks typically benefit from greater protections

6 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 7: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

under insolvency laws and bank resolution regimes than do senior unsecured creditors, and that this benefit is likely to extend to theunsecured portion of such secured transactions in most bank resolution regimes. We believe that in many cases regulators will use theirdiscretion to allow a bank in resolution to continue to honour its CRR liabilities or to transfer those liabilities to another party who willhonour them, in part because of the greater complexity of bailing in obligations that fluctuate with market prices, and also because theregulator will typically seek to preserve much of the bank's operations as a going concern in order to maximize the value of the bankin resolution, stabilize the bank quickly, and avoid contagion within the banking system. CRR liabilities at banks subject to operationalresolution regimes therefore benefit from the subordination provided by more junior liabilities, with the extent of the uplift of the CRRfrom the adjusted BCA depending on the amount of subordination.

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentCR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

UBID's CR Assessment is positioned at A2(cr)/Prime-1(cr).

The CR Assessment is positioned three notches above the adjusted BCA of baa2, based on the cushion against default providedto the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments. The main difference with our AdvancedLGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default on certain seniorobligations, rather than expected loss, therefore we focus purely on subordination and take no account of the volume of the instrumentclass.

About Moody's ScorecardOur Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

7 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 8: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 5

Ulster Bank Ireland DACMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

MacroAdjusted

Score

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 17.9% b3 ← → caa1 Quality of assets Long-run loss

performanceCapitalTCE / RWA 32.3% aa2 ← → a2 Capital retention Stress capital resilience

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets -0.4% caa1 ↑ ↑ b3 Earnings quality

Combined Solvency Score ba1 ba3LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 9.7% a2 ← → a2

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 24.0% baa2 ← → baa2

Combined Liquidity Score a3 a3Financial Profile ba1

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: A2Scorecard Calculated BCA range baa3-ba2Assigned BCA ba1Affiliate Support notching --Adjusted BCA baa2

Balance Sheet in-scope(EUR million)

% in-scope at-failure(EUR million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 9,437 31.2% 11,458 37.9%Deposits 19,817 65.5% 17,796 58.8%

Preferred deposits 14,665 48.5% 13,931 46.1%Junior Deposits 5,152 17.0% 3,864 12.8%

Junior subordinated bank debt 86 0.3% 86 0.3%Equity 907 3.0% 907 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 30,247 100% 30,247 100%

8 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 9: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Rating 16.1% 16.1% 16.1% 16.1% 3 3 3 3 0 a2Counterparty Risk Assessment 16.1% 16.1% 16.1% 16.1% 3 3 3 3 0 a2 (cr)Deposits 16.1% 3.3% 16.1% 3.3% 2 2 2 1 0 baa1Senior unsecured bank debt 16.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2 -1 1 0 0 baa2

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Rating 3 0 a2 0 A2 A2Counterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 a2 (cr) 0 A2 (cr) --Deposits 1 0 baa1 0 Baa1 Baa1Senior unsecured bank debt 0 0 baa2 0 Baa2 --[1] Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information.Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 6Category Moody's RatingULSTER BANK IRELAND DAC

Outlook PositiveCounterparty Risk Rating A2/P-1Bank Deposits Baa1/P-2Baseline Credit Assessment ba1Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Counterparty Risk Assessment A2(cr)/P-1(cr)Issuer Rating -Dom Curr Baa2ST Issuer Rating -Dom Curr P-2

ULT PARENT: THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLANDGROUP PLC

Outlook PositiveBaseline Credit Assessment baa2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Senior Unsecured Baa2Subordinate Baa3Jr Subordinate Ba1 (hyb)Pref. Stock Non-cumulative Ba2 (hyb)Pref. Shelf Non-cumulative (P)Ba2Commercial Paper P-2Other Short Term (P)P-2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

9 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 10: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Endnotes1 The bank ratings shown in this report are the bank's deposit rating and Baseline Credit Assessment

2 Moody's estimate based on the Central Bank of Ireland and company data

3 Tracker loans are a type of variable rate mortgage that follow movements of another publicly available rate

10 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis

Page 11: Ulster Bank Ireland DAC/media/Files/R/RBS-IR/credit-ratings/... · FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 24 January 2019 Update RATINGS Ulster Bank Ireland DAC Domicile Dublin, Ireland

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (“MIS”) ARE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDITRISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODY’S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THERELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITYMAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEEMOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’SRATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAYALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDITRATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSCOMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY’S PUBLICATIONSWITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDERCONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FORRETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACTYOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW,AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTEDOR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANYPERSON WITHOUT MOODY’S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.

CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSESAND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK.

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY’S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as wellas other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information ituses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However,MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody’s publications.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for anyindirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use anysuch information, even if MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses ordamages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of aparticular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.

To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatorylosses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for theavoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents,representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.

NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDITRATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.

Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (includingcorporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating,agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintainpolicies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO andrated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually atwww.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s InvestorsService Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intendedto be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, yourepresent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly orindirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as tothe creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it feesranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1157537

11 24 January 2019 Ulster Bank Ireland DAC: Interim update on credit analysis