UN-OHRLLS

THE COMPREHENSIVE TEN-YEAR REVIEW OF THE ALMATY PROGRAMME OF ACTION

Global perspectives

Sandagdorj Erdenebileg UN-OHRLLS

Tel: 212 963 7703, email: erdenebileg@un.org

APoA – comprehensive development agenda focused on transit cooperation.

• Key objectives - Increase export competitiveness through reducing trade transaction costs

• Develop genuine partnerships at national, bilateral, sub-regional, regional and global levels -between LLDCs and transit countries with their development partners and between the private and public sectors

• Priority areas: i) Fundamental transit policy issuesii) Infrastructure development and

maintenanceiii) International trade and trade facilitationiv) International support measuresv) Implementation and review

Almaty Programme of Action - 2003

UN-OHRLLS

Transit and transport related problems:– Inadequate transit infrastructure – Remoteness from major international markets– Inefficient logistics systems– Delays in transit – due to checkpoints/unscheduled

roadblocks, cumbersome customs and border crossing procedures and insufficient application of ICT, excessive number of documentation

Other challenges:– Heavy reliance on low-value – high-bulk commodities

which make them vulnerable to commodity price volatility– Limited productive capacities– High vulnerability to the global financial and economic

crisis, food security, climate change and desertification and land degradation UN-OHRLLS

LLDCs continue to face problems

Cost of being landlocked: Results of OHRLLS study

• Study applied a gravity model to data from 150 including LLDCs and coastal countries over the period 1980-2010.

• LLDCs’ trade was just 61% of the trade volume of coastal countries in 2010. In 2004 it was 57%.

• Transport costs for LLDCs were 45% higher than the representative coastal economy in 2010 and have increased over time.

• Because of landlockedness the level of development in the LLDCs is on average 20% lower than what it would be were the countries non-landlocked.

======Improved Transport and Trade Facilitation are

still key to reducing the costs for LLDCs.UN-OHRLLS

Since 2003 LLDCs experienced high economic growth

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GDP growth (percentage)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

World LLDC average

LLDC per capita GDP increased – Less than transit countries; 14 African LLDCs below $

1,000

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LLDC Average African LLDCs Transit Countries Average

Declining value addition in manufacture and agriculture LLDCs economies

Manufacturing Value Addition (Share of GDP)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Per

cent

age

of G

DP

LLDC LDCs TRANSIT COUNTRIES

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Human Development Index (HDI) has improved but lower than other

groups

African LLDCs have lower HDI

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

All LLDC African LLDCs

2000

2005

2010

2012

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MDGS

Advances on some MDG indicators• Net primary school enrolment increased

from 64% in 2000 to 83% in 2011• Share of women in national parliament

increased from 7.8% in 2000 to 23.5% in 2013

• HIV prevalence rate decreased from 4% in 2001 to 2.8% in 2011

• Under-5 mortality rate declined from 121.5 per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 80.9 in 2011

However challenges remain• Prevalence of undernourishment in all

LLDCs was 22% in 2011 and African LLDCs 31%

• In half of the LLDCs the proportion of the population living under $1.25 per person per day is greater than 20%

• GDP per capita (constant 2005 $) is below $1,000 in 19 LLDCs, 13 of which in Africa

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Poverty headcount ratio at 1.25 dollars per day (% of total pop) has decreased but still

high

Selected key achievements

Increased harmonization of policiesStreamlining of border procedures Institutional frameworks have been set

upFacilitation measures include: • one-stop border posts; • TIR System, • introduction of single window processing; • harmonization of axle load limits; • third party motor insurance schemes

UN-OHRLLS

Priority area 1: Fundamental transit policy issues

• 57 international conventions on transit, 7 are particularly important for LLDCs

• Asian Highway Agreement entered into force in July 2005

• Trans-Asian Railway Agreement entered into force in June 2009

• Asian dry ports agreement ready for signature• Trans-African Highway Agreement being negotiated

Increased harmonisation of transport and transit policies, procedures and practices with transit countries

UN-OHRLLS

Convention No. LLDCs that ratified/ acceded (Jan 2013)

Road Traffic (1968) 13

Road Signs and Signals (1968) 8

TIR Convention (1975) 11

Temporary Importation of Commercial Road Vehicles (1956) 5

Customs Convention on Containers (1972) 6

Harmonization of Frontier Controls of Goods (1982) 11

Contract for International Carriage of Goods by Road (1956) 10

• Progress has been made on the development of the Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks.

• Africa - implementing the PIDA; with support from partners (World Bank, EU, AfDB, JICA, South-South Corp etc.) transit corridors have been developed.

• South America – implementing the Strategic Action Plan for 2012-2022 of the South American Infrastructure and Planning Council.

• The rate of cellular subscription and Internet users significantly increased in all LLDCs

• Transport of cargo by airfreight has increased in some LLDCs.

• Dry ports are being established in all regions eg. Nepal, Burkina Faso, Mongolia and Ethiopia.

Priority Area 2. Infrastructure development and maintenance

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• LLDCs have lowest percentage of paved roads - only 9 have greater than 50%. Percentage of paved

roads

• $24.4 billion needed in Africa to finance road and railway transport infrastructure projects that can be implemented under Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa in 2012-2020

• $290 billion needed annually in Asia for transport infrastructure between 2010 and 2020

• International financial institutions play important role in financing infrastructure development:

• ODA has played a major role in infrastructure development: $2 billion in ODA disbursements to LLDCs went to transport and storage sector in 2011

• Enhance the role of PPP/private sector.• Need innovative sources of funding.

Financing for infrastructure development

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Priority Area 3. International trade and trade facilitation

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0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

LLDCs African LLDCs

Merchandise Exports (millions $)

• LLDCs’ share of the world’s trade doubled from 0.6% in 2003 to 1.17% in 2012

• However LLDCs are still marginalized from the international trade markets.

Export concentration of LLDCs has been increasing

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Developing economies Developed economies LLDCs

LLDCs are still heavily dependent on commoditiesAfrican LLDCs: Minerals (diamonds, gold, copper, uranium) and agriculture (cotton, coffee, tobacco, bovine)

LLDCs have made progress in facilitating transport and trade across borders BUT still take double the time it takes transit countries to import/export

• Transit countries: number of days to export in 2013 = 23

number of days to import in 2013 = 27

cost to export in 2013 = $1,268 cost to import in 2013 = $1,567

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2006 2013 Percentage change

Import Number of documents 11 10 - 10%

Number of days 57 48 - 15%

Cost per container $2,688 $3,643 + 36%

Export Number of documents 9 8 - 11%

Number of days 48 42 - 12%

Cost per container $2,207 $3,040 + 38%

• Trade Facilitation in the Doha Development Round has the potential to address many of the fundamental transit policy issues that affect LLDC exports.

• Negotiations aim to clarify and improve relevant aspects of Articles V, VIII and X of the GATT 1994 with a view to further expediting the movement, release and clearance of goods, including goods in transit.

• A WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement could bring down the global cost of moving trade today from roughly 10 per cent of trade value to 5 per cent.

• OECD estimates that the Agreement would bring down trade costs in LLDCs by 16.4%.

• Hope that the 9th WTO Ministerial in Bali in December will deliver.

Trade Facilitation under the DOHA Round

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• Since 2003 three LLDCs were able to successfully complete their accession to the WTO – Nepal, Lao PDR and Tajikistan.

• Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Ethiopia are in advanced stages of the accession process.

• Azerbaijan, Bhutan and Uzbekistan are at various less advanced stages of the accession process.

• Support to acceding countries is needed.

WTO Accession

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Way forward - Challenges and new developments

• Reduce high trade transaction costs • Enhance productive capacities, value addition,

diversification and reduction of dependency on commodities

• Inadequate infrastructure• Strengthen legal framework, conventions, GATT

trade facilitation agreement, regional and bilateral • Regional integration/ corridor management• Increased financial resources, ODA, FDI,

remittances• Impact of global trends: slow down of economic

development triple crisis, climate change, desertification.

• Mainstream into global post 2015 development agenda, SDGs

• Strengthen role and contributions of international regional organizations. UN-OHRLLS

• Global awareness and recognition increasing…

• Global partnerships are strengthening…

Recognition of and interest in the special needs of LLDCs and transit issues for international trade has increased since Almaty Conference in 2003.

Greater recognition of LLDC issues from partner countries and international

organizations

UN-OHRLLS

… Thank You