Understanding America’s ‘Immigration Crisis’

Douglas S. Massey

Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton University

Regional Origins of Undocumented Migrants

57%

24%

9%

6%4%

MexicoOther Latin AmericaAsiaEurope & CanadaAfrica & Other

Percentage of Undocumented Migrants

56.8

7.13.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mex

ico

Salvad

or

Guate

mala

Canad

a

Haiti

Philipp

ines

Hondu

ras

Dom R

ep

Nicara

gua

Poland

Country

Per

cen

tag

e

Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

000

Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate

Gentlemen'sAgreement

US EntersWWI

First USQuota Law

GreatDepression

BraceroProgramBegins

OperationWetback

Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins

IRCA Enacted

IRCA Legalization

Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

000

Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate

Gentlemen'sAgreement

US EntersWWI

First USQuota Law

GreatDepression

BraceroProgramBegins

OperationWetback

Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins

IRCA Enacted

IRCA Legalization

Six Eras of Mexican Migration

• Recruitment 1907-1919• Floodtide 1920-1929• Deportations 1930-1941• Bracero 1942-1964• Undocumented 1965-1985• Contradiction 1986-2007

Two Critical Dates in New Era

• 1986– Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT

• Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment– U.S. Congress Passes IRCA

• Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans• Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring• Begins Militarization of Border

• 1994– Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA

• Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital, resources, information, services, and certain classes of people

– US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego• All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor• Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains

Indicators of Cross-Border Economic Integration

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Val

ue

Rel

ativ

e to

198

6

Total Trade Business Visitors Intercompany Transferees Exchange Visitors

Mexico Joins GATTNAFTA Takes Effect

Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year

Val

ue

Rel

ativ

e to

198

6

Border Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget

IRCA Enacted

Operation GatekeeperLaunched in San Diego

Costs of Contradiction

• Transforms Mexican Immigration from a Regional to a National Phenomenon

• Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers• Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension• Reduces Rate of Return Migration• Increases the Rate of Settlement• Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration• Shifts Composition from Workers to Families• Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and

Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers

Jorge DurandUniversity of Guadalajara

and

Douglas S. MasseyPrinceton University

http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/

Current MMP Sample

93 Binational CommunitiesSurveyed 1982-200215,992 Households

837 in U.S.Sample Yields Basic Data on:

19,850 U.S. Migrants12,089 Undocumented Migrants6,209 Complete Life Histories

Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f M

igra

nts

New Destination New Crossing

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

En

trie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Pro

bab

ility

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Do

llars

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

An

nu

al P

rob

abili

ty

Males Females Return

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Nu

mb

er in

Th

ou

san

ds

IRCA Enacted

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Average Wages Earned by Mexican Migrants to US

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Ho

url

y W

age

Undocumented Documented

IRCA Passes

Summary

• Strategy of Finessing Contradiction Through Border Militarization Has Not Worked

• On the Contrary,It Has Backfired:– Transformed a circular flow of workers going to 3

states into a settled population of families in 50 states– Doubled net undocumented migration to U.S.– Lowered probability of apprehension– Caused hundreds of needless deaths per year– Reduced wages of legal workers and citizens– All at great cost to taxpayers

From Border Enforcement to Immigration Management

• New philosophy of immigration control– Rather than viewing Mexican immigration as a

pathological condition to be suppressed by police actions along the border

– See it as a natural outgrowth of economic integration in North America and work to manage in ways that benefit of all parties

• Take lesson from the European Union– Canada & U.S. should treat Mexico in same way that

Northern Europe when it brought Spain into the E.U.

Figure 1. Openness of Spanish economy 1954-2004

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48

54

60

66

72

1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Year

Op

enn

ess

Ind

ex

Franco Dies

Spain Enters EU

Spain Appliesfor Entry to EU

Figure 2. Real GDP per capita in Spain and Northern Europe 1954-2004.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

28000

1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Year

GD

P p

er C

apita

Spain Applies for EU Entry

Spain Enters EU

Northern Europe

Spain

Figure 3. Spain's transition to EU membership: migration, income, and openness

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Ind

icat

or

rela

tive

to 1

986

Spain Enters EU

Openness

GDP Gap withNorthern Europe

Gross Emigration of Spaniards

Net Emigration of Spaniards

Figure 4. Structural adjustrment funds transferred from EU to Spain 1986-1999

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

Mill

ion

s o

f U

S D

olla

rs

Regional Development Fund

Social Fund

Cohesion Fund

Figure 5. Oppenness of Mexican versus Spanish economy 1954-2004.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Year

Op

enn

nes

s In

dex

Mexico Joins GATT

Mexico Joins NAFTA

Mexico

Spain

Figure 8. Real GDP per capita in Canada and the United States versus Mexico

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

GD

P p

er C

apita

Canada andUnited States

Mexico

Mexico Joins GATT

MexicoEntersNAFTA

Figure 9. Mexico's entry into NAFTA: migration, income, and openness

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Val

ue

Rel

ativ

e to

198

6

GDP Gap

PermanentEmigration

Openness

Figure 11. Openness of Polish versus Mexican economy 1970-2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Op

enn

ess

Ind

ex

Mexico Joins GATT

CommunismEnds in Poland

Mexico Joins NAFTA

Poland JoinsEuropean Union

Agenda for Reform

• Increase Quotas for Mexico and Canada

• Re-establish Guestworker Program– Visas to workers rather than employers

• Issue National ID to All Legal Workers• Structural Adjustment Fund Instead of Walls

• Legalize Undocumented Population– Amnesty for those who entered as minors– Guestworker visa for recent arrivals– Earned legalization for long-term residents