understanding the automotive industry: german …...solutions to deal with arising discussions on co...

EVS27 International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium 1

EVS27

Barcelona, Spain, November 17-20, 2013

Understanding the automotive industry: German OEM

behaviour during the last 20 years and its implications

Christoph Mazur 1,2,*

, Marcello Contestabile 3, Gregory J. Offer

1,4, N.P. Brandon

1, 2

1Energy Futures Laboratory, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, UK 2Earth Science and Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

3Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

4Mechanical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

*[email protected]

Abstract

This work presents a study of how the automotive industry has responded in the last 20 years to pressures

driven by economic and environmental issues, and by the transition towards electric mobility. Timelines for

the major German automotive OEMs are presented to understand the industry’s behaviour in the past in

order to design suitable policies that are appropriate to reach future goals around the electrification of road

transport. Based upon a comparison of the pressures arising in the automotive sector and the companies’

behaviour with regard to technology choice and R&D, a set of hypotheses concerning this behaviour is then

presented.

Keywords: low emission vehicles, regulation, Germany, vehicle manufacturers

1 Introduction

The automotive industry continues to experience

a number of pressures. Not only are the

automobile producers increasingly perceiving oil

scarcity, as a potential future issue, but, more and

more, these companies are aware of changing

customer expectations and behaviour, and are

challenged by governmental and regional

policies driven by climate change and local air

quality issues. As a result, the on-going

discussion on emissions has led, and will lead, to

a variety of changes in behaviour, responses in

strategies and products in the automotive

industry; especially as automobiles are

responsible for a high amount of energy-related

GHG emissions (26% in OECD countries). So

the last years’ were dominated by discussions

concerning fuel efficiency and emission

reduction goals and efforts [1, 2].

One way of addressing those pressures is the

introduction of technologies such as hybrid,

battery or fuel cell electric vehicles [1, 3] as it is

argued that the whole spectrum of those electric

power train technologies are likely to be needed in

a future decarbonised road transport system, each

playing a different role [1, 4]. Scenarios, such as

those analysed by the IEA and World Energy

Council, highlight futures with a fast rapid

diffusion of those different drive trains [1, 2].

The study presented here has the aim to illustrate

how major German automotive OEMs have

responded to pressures and events in the

automotive sector, including national and

international policies, technology hypes or

economic developments. The goal is to understand

the decisions that have been taken in the past by

the automotive industry in order derive


behavioural patterns with regard to the focus on

technologies (such as drive trains).

Understanding how the automotive industry

responds to different events or pressures, shall

allow to understand what policies are most

effective at driving the transition towards electric

mobility.

In the long run, this work has the aim to provide

insights that could be used to explore the effects

of transitions towards electric transport on the

automotive sector with the help of modelling.

Information on the proposed model can be found

in [5].

The current structure of the model requires a

description and formalization of the automotive

industry’s behaviour including:

the pressures that lead to changes,

the companies characteristics

and the way the sector responds to those

pressures such as the choice of vehicle

propulsion technologies.

The work here presents qualitative insights that

have been obtained on the path towards the

creation of the model.

2 Understanding the Transition

and OEM's technology choices

2.1 Past research

There have been a number of studies that explore

the role of the automotive industry in the

transition towards alternative vehicle propulsion

technologies.

Mainly qualitative studies such as [6-16], outline

the challenges as well as relationships between

the various actors (such as car manufacturers,

suppliers, policy makers, etc.), and describe their

roles and significance, in the diffusion of electric

mobility. In this context, studies such as [17, 18]

describe and formalize transition systems with

the help of innovation management; mainly

based on [19-21].

A number of works point out the challenges for

the industry, which is facing uncertainty with

regard to future technologies and strategies [22-

24]. The automotive industries activities are

interpreted as a response against pressures from

external actors, like regulators, consumers or

competitors. Other findings describe how short-

term strategies of the industry lock it into using

combustion engines, avoiding extensive

investments into alternative propulsion

technologies, as they anticipate and wait for spill-

overs from other companies executing this

research [10, 25].

However, these papers discuss the role of the

automotive manufacturers only in a broader

context. They outline in a qualitative way how the

industry is part of or is affecting the transition

towards low emission vehicles. For the purpose of

quantification and a robust linking of causes and

consequences of the industry’s behaviour, they are

not sufficient and therefore this work (building

upon those presented here) has the aim to present

an extensive study of the automotive industry.

3 Methodology

In this study, an analysis on the German

automotive sector and the institutions as well as

relevant events on the period of the last 20 years is

presented. The major German OEMs, BMW,

Daimler and Volkswagen are analysed.

Based upon the multi-level perspective approach

within transition science [19, 21], the system is

classified into three levels, the landscape, the

regime and niches. While the landscape and

regime describe and define the socio-technical

system and the established set of rules OEMs are

embedded in, niches can be alternatives, such as

the upcoming of TESLA Motors. First, the

landscape and regime are discussed in section 4.1,

describing events that are expected to have

influence on the automotive sector. This is then

followed by a description of how the three major

German players responded to those changes. Those

stories are then put into time lines (see Annex) for

comparability reasons.

The study includes aspects that have been

identified to have major impact on strategies in the

automotive industry. Extracted from a number of

studies [14, 26-32] those aspects include

technology trends and hypes, national and

international policies, competitors, economic

pressures, fuel prices and infrastructures, as well as

insights on future expectations [33, 34]. But it also

has the aim to identify further links between causes

and consequences with regard to technology

choices and changes in the automotive industry.


The approach we follow in this study is the

following: First, the automotive sector and

aspects such as relevant regulations and

developments are discussed from 1990 on until

2013. Then, as a second step, each company has

been examined during this period. The focus is

put on the research and development and the

choice of propulsion technologies, including

technologies surrounding petrol, diesel, hybrid,

battery or hydrogen based power trains. Those

are then summarized in timelines.

Those timelines are then put (in a qualitative

way) into relation and the comparison is used to

derive recurring links and patterns in the

behaviour of the automotive industry.

The summaries and timelines are derived from

those works and are significantly further

supplemented with actual data on economic

growth and fuel prices as well as the insights

provided by media, mainly drawing from articles

of major established journals such as Spiegel,

Handelsblatt, Focus, FAZ, ... ) or For examples,

articles around major exhibitions such as the

International Automobile Exhibition IAA in

Frankfurt and Detroit Motor Show), were

reviewed to check the mood of the whole sector

and the trends and fashions at those times. The

information on the automotive companies are

then additionally supplemented by an analysis of

company annual reports.

4 The German OEMs since 1990 This section describes the German OEMs' power

train activities since 1990. 4.1 describes what had

happened worldwide while 4.2-4.4 focus on the

manufacturers themselves. For each of these an

illustration of the timeline can be found in the

Annex.

4.1 The automotive regime &

landscape

The Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) initiative that

outlined a number of emission targets and limits

as well as diffusion goals for zero emission

vehicles in California in 1990 was one of the first

policy measures pushing towards low carbon

transport. Although limited to California, it had a

huge signalling effect as around 25% of the US

vehicle market was in California, and

developments in California were expected to

move to further states. However, though it

triggered a number of EV and FCEV prototypes

being presented by the industry, the fact that those

goals were not expected to be met meant it was

relaxed in 1996, and a key regulatory pressure on

the automotive industry was relaxed. While until

then hydrogen vehicles had been seen as a solution

for future transport, suddenly the mood changed

and interest switched towards other technologies

such as the development of battery electric drive

trains. Around 1996/97, at a time when hydrogen

was not seen as a winner anymore, major OEMs in

Germany and Japan presented their respective

solutions to deal with arising discussions on CO2

emissions. While Daimler’s launch of the NecarII

hydrogen demonstrator surprisingly triggered a

new hydrogen/fuel cell hype (especially in

Germany), Toyota’s and Honda’s launch of hybrid

electric vehicles (Prius and Insight) directly into

the Japanese and USA markets was acknowledged

by the automotive sector without having initially

any disruptive effects. While the early 2000s were

dominated by an economic world crisis it was not

until 2004/05 that major changes were triggered in

the automotive sector. The success of Toyota Prius

HEV and the launch of its second generation, as

well as rising fuel prices, lead to a change in the

perception of the hybrid technology, that until now

lead to a ‘hybrid race’ illustrated by the significant

increase in hybrid patents, HEV/PHEV prototypes

being presented at various automobile exhibitions

as well as numerous announcements of HEV

release dates. During that time, hydrogen

technology research, still enjoyed support from

various governments (for example the US

Department of Energy Hydrogen Program).

However, with the inauguration of Steven Chu as

new US Secretary under President Obama in 2009

and a reassessment of all technology options, the

perception and expectations concerning that

technology completely changed. Only the

intervention of the Congress and the Hydrogen

lobby prevented USA hydrogen R&D funding

being completely cancelled. During that time (a

time where the financial crisis hit) governments

such as the German or the UK launched national

programs, the “Nationale Plattform

Elektromobilität” and “Ultra Low Emission

Vehicles initiative” respectively, supporting the

uptake of electromobility in order to reach

environmental or industrial targets. Since then,

HEV/PHEVs and BEVs have dominated current

discussions (hydrogen has a minor role in the US

White House Blueprint for a Secure Energy

Future), and the presence of TESLA in the media,

the introduction of many EV demonstrator projects


(SmartEV, MiniE, and many more) as well as the

recent introduction of the Chevrolet Volt, Nissan

Leaf or Mitsubishi iMiEV support that

impression. While the financial crisis as well as

rising fuel prices in the late 2000s put the focus

on the development of small and highly efficient

vehicles, the current (2012/13) focus has

switched again slowly but steadily towards

bigger cars such as SUVs. However, PHEVs and

EVs currently figure in technology portfolios as

short- or medium-term solutions more than they

ever did before.

4.2 BMW

BMW is an automotive car manufacturer with

more than 1.6 million cars sold per year, a profit

of more than € 7 billion and more than 100,000

employees (2011). During the last 20 years

BMW has increased its output in vehicles from

less than 900,000 per year and increased profits

nearly tenfold. Since then BMW has had some

experience with hydrogen (both internal

combustion and fuel cells), battery electric Minis

and is currently launching its first hybrid

vehicles, and especially its i-series (BMW i3).

While it has been always seen as the smaller

premium automobile manufacturer, its sales

numbers overtook those of Daimler a few years

ago. BMW’s image is located around

medium/large luxury and performance segment

cars, a fact that is reflected in the average fleet

emissions (145 gCO2/km in 2011).

While in the early 1990s ZEV regulation driven

experiences with alternative vehicle power

technologies were disappointing, it was not until

1996 that BMW established serious hydrogen

research activities. Though it was in a time of

hydrogen disappointment in the automotive

sector, the decision was mainly motivated by a

hydrogen vehicle demonstration by its main

competitor, Daimler. Though the work focused

on PEM fuel cells and later SOFC fuel cells as

well, BMW presented in 1998 the BMW 750hL,

a large segment vehicle with a hydrogen

combustion engine and a 5kW PEM APU. Since

then, BMW built more than 100 hydrogen

combustion vehicles that were used at various

events (such as the EXPO 2000 in Germany) and

a number of demonstrator programs where those

vehicles proved themselves in over more than

4,000,000 kilometres driven. Also, a petrol

fuelled vehicle using a SOFC APU with a fuel

processor instead of an alternator was introduced.

Though BMW announced it would bring its

hydrogen combustion vehicle to market in 2002,

those vehicles did not go beyond the status of

demonstrator fleet programs.

While the average fleet emissions of BMW had

been stable (though at a relatively a high level),

emission target discussions at the European level

had led in the late 90’s and the beginning of the

2000’s to an introduction of a variety of engine

efficiency improvements as well as the higher use

of diesel in the fleet, leading to a slow but steady

decrease in average fleet emissions. However,

hybrid or electric vehicle development was not

intensified in this period of time. The acquisition

of Rover brought in Range Rover SUV

technology, leading to the design and production

of BMW’s X5 SUVs. Also, the early 2000’s were

more focused on the world economic crisis, the

new emerging Chinese market and the opening of

BMW’s new production facility in Leipzig in

2005. This changed in 2005/06, mainly with the

success of Toyota’s Prius and rising fuel prices,

causing customers to demand similar solutions.

Until then, only hydrogen technology featured in

the annual reports as a future solution for low

emission vehicles while, from 2005/06 onwards

hybrid vehicle technology was included in the

annual reports as well. Around that time a

collaboration with GM and Daimler-Chrysler was

announced in order to develop a hybrid system to

compete with the Japanese manufacturers. Also, in

2006/2007 BMW intensified its hydrogen

combustion vehicle activities by leasing out 100

vehicles. In this period, BMW’s average fleet

emissions were increasingly dropping (approx. 170

gCO2/km), however, discussions on regulations in

the European Union on a limit of 130gCO2/km

increasingly created pressure. Apart from

recuperating energy to its lead acid battery with the

help of the alternator, BMW had not provided any

hybrid vehicle solution so far.

In 2007, a successful year for BMW, with no signs

of the financial crisis yet to come, BMW initiated a

project called ‘project i’ (under the ‘Number ONE

strategy) that reviewed the technology future

options. This led to a significant change in the

technology strategy of BMW. Shortly after the

review had finished, BMW stopped its combustion

hydrogen vehicle program and announced the

launch of a Mini EV trial fleet, a battery

collaboration with SB LiMotive and the creation of

a Joint Venture with PSA (Peugeot/Citroen). In

2010, it also announced plans to develop and

produce a BEV for the mass market, while also a


hydrogen and petrol hybrid vehicle prototype

(using a 5kW PEM Fuel Cell, see above for

APU) was presented drawing upon the

experience available in house.

Today, in the early 2010’s, after a number of

competitors have brought their PHEVs or BEVs

to market, BMW has presented its Megacity

Vehicle (BMW i3), a small lightweight BEV

vehicle that is expected to reach the mass market

in the end of 2013 (built in Leipzig). During that

phase the acquisition of SGL Carbon, the

supplier of lightweight materials for the i3 was

announced. 2012/2013, in a time, where the

amount of HEVs/PHEVs in BMW’s portfolio is

limited, BMW and Toyota have agreed to

collaborate on fuel-cell systems, lithium-air

batteries, lightweight technologies and electric

power trains.

Currently BMW is selling more vehicles than

ever and has the highest profits it has ever made.

4.3 Daimler

Daimler (at times DaimlerChrysler) is a car

manufacturers with more than 1.4 million cars

sold per annum, a profit of more than € 4 billion

and around 100,000 employees (2012). During

the last 20 years Daimler gradually has increased

its output in vehicles from less than 500,000 per

annum. This does not include its heavy duty

vehicles, trucks or buses, where Daimler has

significant market share. Daimler has introduced

the Smart brand, has presented a number of

FCEVs and is currently preparing the launch of

Smart EVs. While it has always been seen as the

bigger German premium automobile

manufacturer, its sales numbers were overtaken

few years ago by BMW. Its image is located

around medium/large luxury and performance

segment cars, a fact that is well reflected in the

average fleet emissions (150 gCO2/km in 2011).

However, with its brands Smart and Car2Go it is

penetrating the market of smaller vehicles as

well.

Daimler was at the forefront of fuel cell research

for automotive application. First trials had been

executed with FC buses, but it was the change of

the company's internal FC group from Dornier to

the car section in the early 90's that allowed

Daimler to develop a number of FC prototype

and demonstrator vehicles. A few years later, in

1994 Daimler presented its first FC prototype

Necar I (New Electric Car I), but it was the Necar

II that raised the profile for FC vehicles at those

times. Since then Daimler has presented a variety

of FC vehicles, including versions with methanol

reformers or hybrid drive trains. The FCs were

provided by Ballard, a Canadian company that had

already provided FCs for trials with FC buses. In

that domain, as well as in the segment of vans and

trucks, Daimler undertook various demonstrator

projects with FCEV. The collaboration with

Ballard led to a purchase of a stake in Ballard by

Daimler (together with Ford) in 1997, and to the

total acquisition of the Ballard's automotive FC

division in 2007. This means that Daimler has had

significant know-how in the application of FC

since the early 90's. Around the year 2000 there

was high expectations with regards to the

commercial launch of FCEVs. However, although

Daimler announced in 1999 that there would be

100,000 FCEV in 2004, until 2013 the application

of FCEV did not go beyond demonstrator

programs or small series applications.

In 1994 Daimler took over Volkswagens

engagement in Nicolas G. Hayek's micro compact

vehicle project that had the aim to provide a small

city vehicle. The smart fortwo, a small two seater

vehicle was brought to market in 1998. However,

as Hayek's vision of a small and energy efficient

vehicle that could be used for car sharing had not

been satisfied by Daimler, Hayek decided to leave

the joint venture and Daimler became sole owner

of Smart. And although Daimler launched a

number of vehicles under the Smart brand, such as

a roadster, it only had generated losses. On the

other hand the Smart brand led to a decrease in

Daimler's average fleet emissions, down to around

180gCO2/km in 2005 from 230gCO/km in 1995.

The year 2005 brought significant changes, not

only for the Smart brand. In a time where the

merger with Chrysler had not led to the expected

results, where Smart was generating losses, as well

as the whole automotive branch of Daimler, and in

a time where Toyota presented the second

generation of its successful Prius, Daimler changed

its CEO and launched its CORE restructuring

program. All Smart models but the fortwo were

scrapped and nearly 10,000 workers laid off. But

2005/06 also brought changes in terms of efficient

vehicle drive trains. While consumers were

affected by rising petrol prices, Daimler introduced

together with Volkswagen and GM its Bluetec

Diesel branding, especially as an answer to the 2nd

generation of the Prius HEV that received positive


coverage, especially in the US. A number of

mild-hybrid vehicles were launched as well.

However, the announcement that Daimler was

collaborating with Zytek, a British powertrain

and vehicle specialist in 2006 with the aim to

retrofit and electrify 100 Smarts, that have been

then tested in London, was even more

significant. At the same time the car sharing

scheme Car2Go had been launched using Smarts.

Since then Daimler has build more than 2000

smart EVs that are being tested before the vehicle

is expected to be brought to market in 2014.

While the first Smarts' electric drive trains had

been provided by Zytek, the newest generations

were using batteries, battery systems and motors

from subsidiaries, that Daimler created in the late

2000's. Together with Evonik (specialist in

chemicals) it formed joint ventures for batteries

(Li-tec) and battery management systems

(ACCUmotive) and with Bosch it formed a JV

on electric motors (hubject GmbH). Before that,

in 2009 Daimler bought stakes in TESLA that

provided the batteries for the 2nd

generation of

electric smarts. To ensure economies of scale for

the JVs with Evonik, the batteries were also

offered to other OEMs such as Renault/Nissan.

Furthermore, in the early 2010's Daimler has

announced a collaboration with Toyota in the

domain of FCs and collaborations with carbon

and composite manufacturers.

With regard to the Mercedes brand, Daimler has

slowly introduced hybrid drive trains. First in

their sports car SLS (2008), then their premium

vehicles S class (2009) and recently in their E

class. Furthermore the A and B class with their

sandwich floor have been used as basis for a

number of BEV and FCEV trials. The B class is

expected to reach the mass market in 2014.

However, FCEVs are seen as the long-term

solution.

4.4 Volkswagen

Volkswagen is the biggest of the German car

manufacturers with more than 9 million cars sold

per annum, a profit of more than € 4 billion and

more than 500,000 employees (2012). The

Volkswagen family includes brands such as

Audi, Skoda, Seat and Porsche as well as Scania

and MAN in the domain of heavy trucks. In

comparison to BMW and Daimler, Volkswagen

does offer a wider variety of smaller vehicles

which is well reflected in its average fleet

emissions of 134gCO2/km in 2012, which is in-

line with EU limits. While the focus in the past

years has been put on efficient diesel engines,

Volkswagen has recently launched a number of

Hybrid Audi vehicles and is preparing the

introduction of BEVs in 2013/2014.

Although VW executed some trials on EVs,

PHEVs and FC vehicles in the 1990s, its power

train research was focussed on highly efficient

combustion engines and especially diesel engines,

as well as the use of bio fuels. While BMW and

Daimler had presented their solutions for low

emission transport, VW presented its Polo 3L with

a fuel consumption of 3l/100km in 1998 which

was followed in 2002 by the announcement of a 1

litre vehicle. However, those were soon scrapped

due to low demands (same happened for Audi A2)

before 2005. However, during that year, the

success of the Prius and rising fuel prices lead to

the creation of the collaborative brand Bluetec for

Diesel combustion engine vehicles (together with

Daimler and GM).

In 2007 VW collaborated with Porsche on hybrid

drive trains, with Sanyo in Li-ion batteries and

Continental for the delivery of hybrid drive trains.

Towards the end of the 2000's VW launched a

number of collaborations on batteries and power

electronics including Panasonic, Li-tec

(Evonik/Daimler), BYD and Toshiba. While VW

introduced a number of PHEV SUVs after 2007, it

also pursued the development of low emission

engines. Its 1.4 litre TSI turbocharged engine has

won the Best New Engine Award for 7 consecutive

years since 2006. The micro vehicle Up! (similar

to the Smart fortwo but a 4 seater) had been

introduced in 2009. An electric version is expected

in 2013/2014. Furthermore the 1 litre vehicle

project has been re-launched again in 2007 leading

to a number of prototypes, with the last one in

2013 (XL1 Super Efficient). In addition to that

VW pursued the development of bio fuels and

launched own production facilities in the early

2010's.

Volkswagen seems to be on track with its plan to

become the biggest vehicle manufacturer.

Furthermore it aims to decrease average fleet

emissions to 120 gCO2/km by 2015 and

95gCO2/km by 2020. Like BMW it also has a

stake in SGL Carbon, and recently VW has signed

a deal with Ballard to deliver FC for HyMotion

($56 million). Apart from this a wide introduction


of hybrid and battery electric vehicles is

announced for the next years to come.

5 Findings This section has the aim of outlining a number of

patterns in the behaviour of the German

automotive OEMs that has been derived from a

brief analysis of the respective timelines. For that

the timeline of the landscape has been put in

relation to the timelines of the individual

companies to find out what events lead to

reactions in the automotive industry. Furthermore

the observed changes, their extent and their

consequences were taken into account as well as

the characteristics of the company at a specific

time. So, for example were the skills of the

company at the point of a change relevant as

well. As the sample is small the findings here in

this section are of a qualitative nature.

The following hypotheses are proposed by this

work based upon the analysis of the German

automotive manufacturers since 1990:

Without significant external pressures

OEMs do not pursue significant changes:

During the early 90's as well as in the early

2000's there had been no significant external

pressures, leading to business as usual. Daimler

focused on FCEV, VW on diesel engines and

BMW on the hydrogen combustion engines.

Only in the existence of pressures such as

policies or customers perception due to rising

fuel prices did OEMs review their technology

choices.

Regulations and consumer pressure are

main drivers for technology change while

economic indicators not. Regulations such as

the Zero Emission Vehicle initiative in

California and the European tailpipe CO2

emission standards have led to intensified

efforts in the automotive industries. The same

effect could be observed when competitors’

solutions received significant attention such as

Daimler's Necar II, that led to hydrogen

research at BMW, or the launch of the 2nd

generation of the Toyota Prius HEV that led to

a rethinking in the German automotive

industry. Also does the customer response to

rising fuel cost play a significant role. The

temporarily increase in the demand for low

emission vehicles around 2005 had lead to

adjustments of technology portfolios. In

contrast to that, did low sales or the perception

of economic crisis not trigger changes in

technology strategies or did not lead to a

decrease of R&D expenditures.

New solutions are created through

combinations of available internal solutions: As expected, the automotive OEMs develop

solutions that resolve the pressures from outside

based on the knowledge available in house, i.e.

they tend to focus on, and continue research in,

what they are good at. As mentioned before

Daimler focused on FCs, VW on diesel drive

trains and BMW on the combustion of hydrogen.

For example, when BMW presented its first

hybrid concepts, the range extender was based

upon a small fuel cell that had been used as

Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) in the hydrogen

combustion vehicles, while Daimler used the

smart platform for the provision of small city

EVs.

Even if the pressure is there, disruptive

changes need to be triggered by disruptive

(internal) events: Even if there is enough

pressure from outside, only when a disruptive

event occurs, OEMs tend to adjust their

technology choices to resolve the pressures they

are facing. BMW's project i that lead to the

current focus on BEVs had been launched shortly

after a new CEO had arrived. Daimler's

disruptive restructuring of Smart towards a focus

on the fortwo and electrification (something that

Hayek had actually envisioned for Smart) as well

as the move towards hybrid and electric vehicles,

occurred shortly after the appointment of a new

CEO. On the other hand the success of the Prius

was also around this time.

Knowledge on disruptive or less familiar technologies is obtained from third parties: In

the case where an OEM has decided to create a

solution that is not covered by available

knowledge, collaborations, joint ventures or

acquisitions are undertaken. For its Smart EV,

Daimler collaborated with a small British SME.

VW collaborated with Porsche to introduce

hybrid power trains into their own vehicles. And

even in the case where no change was sought, it

was Hayek that brought the concept of small

compact vehicle to Daimler, that led to Daimler's

entry into the car sharing business (Car2Go).

6 Conclusions This paper has presented and analyzed the

behaviour of the German automotive OEMs with

regard to alternative power train technologies. For

that it has put the automotive sector and its

environment such as regulation or economic


development into relation with the technology

choices individual automotive companies did. In

brief analysis, this work proposes a number of

hypotheses concerning the behaviour of OEMs.

These are:

Without significant external pressures OEMs

do not change.

Regulations and consumer pressure are main

drivers for change while economic indicators

not.

New solutions are created through

combinations of available internal solutions.

Even if external pressures are there, disruptive

changes need to be triggered by disruptive

(internal) events.

Knowledge on disruptive or less familiar

technologies is obtained from third parties.

These are preliminary results that are porposed

for discussion.

In the next step our work will concentrate on

worldwide operating automotive OEMs to

understand the differences in their behaviour as

well as to determine whether similar patterns can

be observed.

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge funding from the

Grantham Institute for Climate Change (Imperial

College London), the Climate Knowledge and

Innovation Community (European Institute of

Innovation and Technology) and the UK EPSRC

through the grant ’’SUPERGEN 14: Delivery of

Sustainable Hydrogen’’ and a Career

Acceleration Fellowship for Gregory Offer,

award number EP/I00422X/1,.

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Authors

Dipl. Wirt.-Ing. Christoph Mazur is a

PhD Student at Imperial College

London. He is supported by Grantham

Institute for Climate Change, Climate-

KIC and Energy Futures CDT. He

graduated in Mechanical Engineering

& Business Administration (RWTH

Aachen and Ecole Centrale Paris). His

research interests are electric cars, the

transition process towards electric road


transport and policy making.

Dr Marcello Contestabile is a research

fellow at the Centre for Energy Policy

and Technology (ICEPT), Imperial

College London. He specialises in

techno-economic, market and policy

analysis of alternative road transport

technologies, particularly with

emphasis on hydrogen fuel cell and

battery electric vehicles. Before

joining Imperial he has worked as an

R&D scientist in industry, developing

advanced lithium-ion batteries for

portable electronics applications..

Dr Gregory has a PhD in

electrochemistry but is based in

Mechanical Engineering. He holds a

Career Acceleration Fellowship from

the EPSRC and manages a medium

sized research group focussing on

understanding batteries, super-

capacitors and fuel cells in real world

applications. He also worked in

Government and Parliament advising

on zero and low emission technology,

and helped write the UK Governments

2050 pathways report.

Professor Nigel Brandon OBE FREng

is Director of the Energy Futures Lab

at Imperial College London, and

Director of the UK’s Hydrogen and

Fuel Cells SUPERGEN Hub

(www.h2fcsupergen.com). Along

with Dr Gregory Offer he leads the

UK’s Energy Storage Research

Network (www.esrn.co.uk), and his

research interests are focussed onto

electrochemical power sources for

both transport and power applications


1990

1995

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for a

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International

policies and

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rysl

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n c

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Tri

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of

hy

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FC

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cus

on

eff

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&

Bio

fuel

s

20

00

rep

ort

Cri

sis

app

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hin

g (C

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Mit

sub

ish

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Fo

cus

on

S

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rity

, FC

an

d

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bri

d

20

11

rep

ort

60

k c

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ust

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ers

3 g

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s: l

ow

em

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on

ICE

, HE

V, E

V, F

C

An

no

un

cem

ent

of

man

y E

V F

C v

ehic

les

Annual

reports

Technology

and vehiclesCollaboration

fle

et

CO

2/k

m -

--

Company

data

Do

rnie

r F

uel

Cel

l te

am

swit

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fro

m s

pac

e gl

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to

wo

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n f

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cel

l v

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le

Fir

st

FC

EV

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FC

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CE

O:

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FC

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s in

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FC

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alla

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P ,S

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lard

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Mic

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pac

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ger

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ann

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r

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FC

bu

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in M

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Die

sel

HE

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coll

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GM

& B

MW

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art

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pre

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ted

FC

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HY

FC

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20

12

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86

00

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bs

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CE

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art

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ou

r

sto

pp

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etec

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sel

in U

SA

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n E

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AC

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on

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PH

EV

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Car

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in U

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% T

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k b

att

for

smar

t

20

00

smar

t

EV

3rd

gen

fort

wo

30

00

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on

hy

bri

d b

use

s

HE

V t

ruck

tria

ls (

DH

L)

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52

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on

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lard

sse

lls

FC

EV

div

isio

n

To

yo

ta c

arb

on

JV

€6

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m i

n c

om

pac

t v

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e

SL

S

EV

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in U

S

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lard

FC

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l

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st B

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nce

pt

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00

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Tec

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nt

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ens

10

0 S

mar

t

EV

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on

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n

FC

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h T

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tec

ann

ou

nce

d

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r

AG

Qu

antu

m F

C c

arb

on

tan

k

BY

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p

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Fra

nce

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la E

V p

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nch

of

HE

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2nd

gen

HE

V t

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AC

CU

mo

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pro

du

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n s

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20

12

rep

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on

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, HE

V, E

V, F

C

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cus

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al

lian

ces,

car

2go

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art

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ote

r

& B

EV

for

20

14

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ray

in

du

stri

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van

ced

co

mp

osi

te e

ngi

nee

rin

g

Ham

bu

rg

euro

pca

r

New

pla

nt

in H

un

gary

for

com

pac

ts

FC

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ls

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us

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n p

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50

0

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st.d

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tio

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ian

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or

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cho

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mer

s

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in

20

12

an

d

FC

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15

on

mas

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et

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in

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on

mar

ket

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Mil

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to

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Pro

fit

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23

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r

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goo

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aim

ler

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fo

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res

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maj

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90

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95

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20

10

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10

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cus

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sel

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% U

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Annual

reports

Technology

and vehiclesCollaboration

fle

et

CO

2/k

m -

--

Company

data

20

12

rep

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by

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cus

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atu

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gas

veh

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eco

nd

-gen

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cell

ulo

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CE

O:

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s e-

up

in

20

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argi

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d

BM

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aim

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l M

oto

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ship

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osh

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10

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n

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lf T

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sel-

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V C

on

cep

t

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di

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HE

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on

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car

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po

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ed

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h-v

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bat

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fo

r E

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ge

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th

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ith

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kW

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ura

n

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enn

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of

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and

pet

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bi

fuel

veh

icle

s

Pil

ot

pla

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for

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nd

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l

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bri

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car

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car

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man

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xp

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n o

f

par

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ship

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onic

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hen

gin

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bac

kgr

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nd

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20

0

30

0

40

0

50

0

60

0

0

10

00

20

00

30

00

40

00

50

00

60

00

70

00

80

00

90

00

10

00

0

Pro

fit

/in

mil

/ le

ft s

cale

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(in

k /

left

sca

le)

Emp

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k /

rig

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cale

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13

0

15

0

17

0

19

0

21

0

Co

op

wit

h

Ro

snef

t

(CN

G)

8.1

8%

sta

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GL

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bo

n

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lick

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del

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nso

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mle

rCh

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lksw

agen

/ A

ud

i L

aun

ch B

LU

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cle

an d

iese

l in

itia

tive

(U

S M

ark

et)

All

ian

ce f

or

Sy

nth

etic

Fu

els

in

Eu

rop

e“ (

AS

FE

)

Fig

ure

4:

Tim

elin

e fo

r V

olk

swag

en (

tech

no

logy

fo

cus,

res

earc

h,

maj

or

dev

elo

pm

ents

, et

c si

nce

19

90

)

understanding the automotive industry: german …...solutions to deal with arising discussions on co...

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