understanding the demands and preferences of today’s “post-traditional” student, carol...

CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013

Adult Students 2013

Carol Aslanian, Senior Vice President,

Aslanian Market Research

Understanding the Demands and Preferences of Today’s “Post-traditional” Student

July 16, 2013


2004

17.3M

2006

17.8M For-Profit Sector Share: 11% (BMO Cap.)

2008

19.5M

2010

21.6M

Overall Higher Education Enrollment (Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount)

2

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

2012

21.6M

• Growth trend flattened beginning 2011 • Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013

Adult students (25+) make up

about 50% of all higher education

enrollments.

Noncredit: 20m+

© Aslanian Market Research


2020

23.7M 2016

22M

…and what’s to come?

3

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

Projections



50% of college students finish in four years…

…50% do not (DOE)

4



US Higher Education Enrollment Trends

Growth by Age Group

2010 2021

18 - 24 years: 10%

25 - 34 years: 20%

35+ years: 25%

5



Percent Age 25+

Undergraduate 31%

Graduate 81%

Total 42%

Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50%

12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment.

Higher Education Enrollments

6

Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment



For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share

2010 2.43m students (11.2% share of all postsecondary enrollments)

2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection)

**Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)**

Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**

(degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions)

7



FEEDER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

| 8


High School Graduation Trends (National)

WiCHE

9


High School Graduation Trends (Regional)

Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028

WiCHE

10


High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education?

• In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students

on college campuses

• One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds

• Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education

• Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school


11



What does this mean for your Enrollments?

• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to the traditional higher education market

• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market

• Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment


12


Who Are College Students Today?

or…

13


The Changing Profile of a College Student

• 27% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students

– 18-24

– living on campus

– attend full-time

• 73% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional”

– working

– live off-campus

– financially independent

– often first-generation

• Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…)

14



The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids

25%

28%

58%

63%

69%

Open a web browser

Make a mobile phone call

Play a basic computer game

Turn a computer on/off

Operate a computer mouse

Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can…

15


2.3m 3.5m

4.6m

6.1m

9.9m 10.8m*

780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m

3.3m 3.4m*

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est)

Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online

Market Trends in Online Education

16

* 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth

(Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010)

Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012;

Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011 © Aslanian Market Research


Future of Online Enrollments

2012 15% of all enrollments

2016 20% of all enrollments (est.)

17



Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing) is

3-4 times the rate of

classroom enrollment

18



ADULTS AS STUDENTS 2013

| 19


Adult Students: Snapshot

• Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations

nationwide

• Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years

20



• Majority are female

• Getting younger

• Majority are non-minority

• More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials

• Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study

• Most often finance their own study

General Personal Characteristics

21



Undergraduate

To change careers 30%

To advance in current career 23%

To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree

10%

To keep up-to-date in current career 11%

To enter a first career 11%

Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job

5%

Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education

1%

Personal reasons not related to job or career 9%

Motivation for Study

22



Undergraduate Graduate

To change careers 30% 24%

To advance in current career 23 39

To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree

10 12

To keep up-to-date in current career 11 10

To enter a first career 11 6

Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job

5 4

Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education

1 1

Personal reasons not related to job or career 9 5

Motivation for Study

23



• Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses

• Study in career fields

• Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and, Health Professions

• Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less

General Learning Patterns

24



• Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%)

• Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study

• Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online

General Learning Patterns (cont.)

25



PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIME OF ENROLLMENT

26


32%- Bachelor’s plus

Education-Level: Undergraduate

27

20%

20%

18%

9%

21%

4% 5% 1% 1% High school diploma / GED

One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree

Associate’s degree

Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate© Aslanian Market Research


32%- Master’s plus

Education-Level: Graduate

28

57%

11%

25%

4% 3% Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate



Age at Time of Study

29


25-29 24 27

30-39 26 26

40-49 20 17

50-59 17 18

60 and older 7 5

Median 32 Years 33 Years



Gender

30


Female 71% 67%

Male 28 32



Ethnicity

31


White 77% 79%

African-American 7 5

Asian or Pacific Islander

6 9

Hispanic 5 3

Native American 1 1

Other 2 1



Employment Status at Time of Study

32


Employed full time 56% 69%

Employed part time 19 16

Not employed 19 13

Retired 4 2



Income at Time of Study

33


Under $25,000 15% 10%

$25,000 - $39,999 16 11

$40,000 - $54,999 15 11

$55,000 - $69,999 13 13

$70,000 - $84,999 11 12

$85,000 - $99,999 9 12

$100,000 - $114,999 8 9

$115,000 - $129,000 4 6

$130,000 - $149,000 3 5

More than $150,000 5 12

Median income $55,000 $70,000 © Aslanian Market Research


HOW DO THEY PAY FOR COURSES?

| 34


Course Payment Method

35


Personal funds 61% 65%

Student loans 38 34

Pell Grants or other

federal/state/local government

grants and scholarships

28 14

Tuition reimbursement 17 28

Personal loans 8 10

Private scholarships 7 9

Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10

Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2

Other 3 2 © Aslanian Market Research


WHAT CREDENTIALS DO THEY SEEK?

| 36


Credential - Undergraduate

37

Enrolled in a degree program

32%

Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree

program 21%

Certificate, license, or diploma in a

professional area 27%

Individual Courses 20%



Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate

38

Associate 16%

Bachelor’s 84%



Credential - Graduate

39

Enrolled in a degree program

59% Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s

degree program 17%

Certificate, license, or

diploma in a professional

area 24%



Degree Level Pursued- Graduate

40

Master’s 81%

Doctorate 19%



FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME STUDY?

| 41


Full-Time/Part-time Study

42

Full-time 52%

Part-time 48%

Undergraduate

Full-time 45%

Part-time 55%

Graduate



DO THEY PREFER DAY, EVENING, OR WEEKEND STUDY IF TAKING A

CLASSROOM COURSE?

| 43


Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred

44

3%

27%

16%

44%

5% 5% 2%

17% 12%

56%

8% 5%

Weekday earlymornings

Weekdaymornings

Weekdayafternoons

Weekdayevenings

Weekends No classroomcourses - online

only




ARE THEY ATTRACTED TO HYBRID AND ONLINE STUDY?

| 45


Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate

46

76%

33%

44% 43% 43%

26%

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research


Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate

47

72%

32%

40% 45%

33%

22%

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research


DO THEY PREFER ACCELERATED COURSES?

| 48


Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

15 weeks or more

14 weeks

13 weeks

12 weeks

11 weeks

10 weeks

9 weeks

8 weeks

7 weeks

6 weeks

5 weeks

4 weeks

3 weeks

2 weeks

1 week

Preferred

Actual

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks

49



0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

15 weeks or more

14 weeks

13 weeks

12 weeks

11 weeks

10 weeks

9 weeks

8 weeks

7 weeks

6 weeks

5 weeks

4 weeks

3 weeks

2 weeks

1 week

Preferred

Actual

Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate

50

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks



WHAT SUBJECTS DO THEY MOST OFTEN STUDY?

| 51


Undergrad Degrees

Business

STEM

Social Sciences

Health Professions

Humanities/Liberal

Arts

Education

Graduate Degrees

Business

Education

Health Professions

Social Sciences

STEM

Humanities/Liberal

Arts

Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand)

52



HOW DO THEY BECOME AWARE OF YOUR COLLEGE DURING THEIR

SEARCH?

| 53


Internet Search Engines

College Search Sites

Mail to Home

Emails

Television Ads

Ads on Websites

Radio Ads

Newspaper Ads

Billboards

Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5)

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate

54



Internet Search Engines

College Search Sites

Mail to Home

Emails

Television Ads

Ads on Websites

Radio Ads

Newspaper Ads

Billboards

Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5)

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate

55



1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Podcasts

Blogs

Social Media Fan Pages

Faculty/student Chats

Online Open House

Undergraduate

Graduate

Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale)

56



What Social Media do Adults Use?

57

15%

4%

5%

25%

50%

78%

15%

2%

8%

26%

38%

79%

None

Other

MySpace

Twitter

LinkedIn

Facebook

Undergraduate

Graduate



30% make NO direct contact with college until they submit their application.

58



Current or Former Students

The College’s Website

Friend, Family, Co-workers

Radio Ads

Newspaper Ads

Television Ads

Direct Mail

Other

29%

23

19

10

5

5

4

5

Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College

59



College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Undergraduate

60

Availability of a particular course or program

30%

Proximity of college to home or work 19

Cost of tuition and fees 18

Day and time courses meet 8

Reputation of the college or program 8

Accreditation of the college or program 3

Availability of online instruction 5

Length of time to complete my studies 5

Transferability of previously earned credits 1

Something else 3 © Aslanian Market Research


College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Graduate

61

Proximity of college to home or work 21%

Cost of tuition and fees 21

Day and time courses meet 21

Availability of a particular course or program 12

Reputation of the college or program 11

Availability of online instruction 7

Accreditation of the college or program 2

Length of time to complete my studies 2

Transferability of previously earned credits 3

Something else 1



RETAINING ADULT STUDENTS: WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE?

| 62


•Convenient schedules

•Multiple formats

•Adequate supply of courses at the right time

•Recognizing that “life can interfere”

•Tracking and follow-up…

•ROI

What Makes the Difference?

63



ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES

| 64


• Cost and reputation matter most

• Rising importance of “brand”

• Increasing acquisition costs/limited

marketing budgets

• Electronic marketing and recruitment

Issues

| 65



Issues

| 66

• Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research

• Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants

• Expanding demand for online format

• Importance of local/ground presence for online delivery



• Younger “adult” students • Multiple formats are essential:

classroom/hybrid/online • Customer Service/24-7 Operations • Time to completion

Issues

| 67



• Aging society: “Age 60 is the new age 40 and it has become prime time”

• Education matched to today’s jobs

Issues

| 68



• Stackable certificates

• International adult student demand for online education

• Declining share of for-profit institutions

Opportunities

| 69



• Adult student market growth

• Non-degree credentials

• Hybrid/blended and online learning

• Low residence programs

Opportunities

| 70



• Growth of non-credit career/professional development market

• Changing nature of the economy/jobs

• U.S. recession driving greater demand for graduate education

Opportunities

| 71



• Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs

• Age no longer predicts learning patterns

Opportunities

| 72



Thank you!

73

Questions?

Aslanian Market Research

[email protected]

Office 201.377.3321

Mobile 917.216.1969

Fax 201.653.2970

www.educationdynamics.com

adultstudents.educationdynamics.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.educationdynamics.com/

http://adultstudents.educationdynamics.com/

understanding the demands and preferences of today’s “post-traditional” student, carol...

Marketing

nature of adult enrollment

adult students

actual total adult enrollment

market share

rate of classroom enrollment

higher education market

online education

higher education enrollments