understanding the intel/micron 3d xpoint memory · 2015 storage developer conference. © objective...
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Understanding the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory
Jim Handy Objective Analysis
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
2
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
3
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Intel Has Researched PCM For 45 Years!
6
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
How Many Ways Have Been Tried?
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
8
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
NAND Laid The Path To Increased Hierarchy Levels
9
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ave
rage
Pric
e pe
r Gig
abyt
e
DRAM
NAND
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Ratio of DRAM-NAND Prices
10
0X
2X
4X
6X
8X
10X
12X
14X
16X
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Rat
io o
f DR
AM
to N
AN
D P
rice
per G
B
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Why This? Why Now?
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1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06Price per Gigabyte
Ban
dwid
th (M
B/s
)
Tape
HDD
DRAM
L3
L2
L1
101
100
102
103
104
105
106
107
101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1
Semiconductor memories becoming faster and cheaper
Disks becoming cheaper, but no faster
Result:Speed gap is widening
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Where 3D XPoint Fits In The Memory/Storage Hierarchy
12
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06
Ban
dwid
th (M
B/s
)
Price per Gigabyte
Tape
HDD
SSD
DRAM
L3
L2
L1
101
100
102
103
104
105
106
107
101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1
3DXPoint
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
13
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Patents Leaked Intel’s Plans
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
How Much Does XPoint Help?
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
3D XPoint’s Place in the Memory/Storage Hierarchy
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Great Gains at Low Queue Depths
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Clear, But Complex Economic Benefits
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
19
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
About That Timing…
Timing is good because: DRAM is running out
of speed NVDIMMs are
catching on Some sysadmins
understand how to use flash to reduce DRAM needs
Timing is bad because: Nobody can make it
economically No software supports
SCM New layers take time
to establish
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
21
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
What 3D XPoint Means To You
Better cost/performance ratio Lower power consumption Less DRAM More performance per server Lower OpEx
In-memory databases start to make sense
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2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?
23
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
The Issue of Learning
25
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
Aver
age
Pric
e pe
r Gig
abyt
e
Cumulative Gigabyte Shipments Over Time (Thousands)
DRAM Learning Curve
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Server DRAM Gigabyte Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ann
ual G
igab
yte
Ship
men
ts (M
illio
ns)
Without 3D XPointWith 3D XPoint
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Server DRAM Revenue Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint
27
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ann
ual D
RA
M R
even
ues
($B
illio
ns)
Without 3D XPointWith 3D XPoint
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
3D XPoint Optimistic Server Revenues
28
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
2017 2018 2019
Ann
ual 3
D X
Poin
t Rev
enue
s ($
Bill
ions
)
Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Summary What Is It?
A New, fast, cheap crosspoint memory Why Is This Happening?
The market’s ready, and memory can’t keep up Who Wants It?
Everyone… eventually! Is The World Ready For It?
Not yet Why Should I Care?
It has a direct impact on your systems When Will This Happen?
Launch, 2016. Big impact, much later 29
2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.
Resources A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint
Memory, Objective Analysis, September 2015: http://Objective-Analysis.com/Reports.html#XPoint
How PC NAND Will Undermine DRAM, Objective Analysis, 2011: http://Objective-Analysis.com/Reports.html#DRAM-NAND
Intel/Micron 3D XPoint introduction: http://newsroom.intel.com/docs/DOC-6713
Intel Developer Forum (IDF) 2015 presentations: http://myeventagenda.com/sessions/0B9F4191-1C29-408A-8B61-65D7520025A8/7/5
Micron Summer Analyst Day: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-45YXOQ/363551033x0x846418/07F3EDAB-8D71-4F5D-BFB9-139E9EE1AB0F/2015_Summer_Analyst_Day_Presentation_V31.pdf
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