Understanding the Tipping Point of Urban Conflict: Violence, Cities and Poverty Reduction

in the Developing World

Introduction to the study Caroline Moser and Dennis Rodgers

Global Urban Research Centre/ Brooks World Poverty Institute

University of Manchester, UK

Background to the research project

Urban violence acknowledged as increasingly significant global phenomenon

Conventional wisdom associates it with four factors:

Poverty Youth bulges Political exclusion Gender-based insecurity

UTP basic conceptual premise

Cities are inherently conflictual spaces

Conflict is understood as a situation where individuals or groups have incongruent, or differing, interests that are contradictory and potentially mutually exclusive

Conflict generally ‘managed’ peacefully by a range of mechanisms, but sometimes these cannot cope and different forms of violence can emerge

Violence is understood as the forcible imposition, by individual or group, of their interests to the disfavour/exclusion of others

Introduction of new research concepts

UTP project hypothesizes that transition from conflict to violence happens when a tipping point is reached

‘Small events and actions that produce big changes’ (Gladwell) ‘An event that changes the trajectory of development’

(Walby)

Research Question: What determines a tipping point of urban conflict

when violence breaks out on a large scale?

Introduction of new research concepts

Notion of violence chains Builds on concept of ‘commodity chains’ to

identify the processes that increase the scale and inter-connectedness of different types of violence

Research Focus: On processes rather than violence

phenomena, identifying the shift from one state to another

Four case studies

City case studies chosen on basis of four factors conventionally identified as causing urban violence

Each city paradigmatically associated with one factor, but displaying different levels of overall violence:

City Country Paradigmatic issue Level of violence

Dili Timor Leste Youth High

Patna India Poverty Low

Nairobi Kenya Political exclusion High

Santiago Chile Gender-based insecurity

Low

Combined research components 1. City profile City-level data to contextualize the study as well as

urban violence trends based on quantitative secondary data

2. Sub-city study Primary data perceptions of types of conflict and

violence, tipping point factors, and chains linking different types of violence

Santiago; Nairobi: common conceptual framework and participatory violence appraisal methodology

Patna: inductive interviews, FGDs, survey, Dili: in-depth narrative conversations, FGDs

Research Partners

Research Centre Researchers Country and city

University of Manchester

Caroline Moser Dennis Rodgers

(PI) (CI)

Eco-Build Africa, Nairobi

Alfred Omenya Grace Lubaale

Kenya, Nairobi

Corporacíon SUR, Santiago

Alfredo Rodriguez Marisol Saborido Olga Segovia

Santiago, Chile

Centre on Conflict, Development & Peacebuilding, Geneva

Oliver Jütersonke Jovana Carapic

Dili, Timor Leste

Institute for Human Development, New Delhi & Patna

Alakh Sharma Shivani Satija Dennis Rodgers

Patna, India

Research process

1. Nov 2010: Inception Workshop, Manchester

2. March–July 2011: City case studies

3. Nov 2011: Mid-term Workshop, Manchester

4. February-May 2012: City-level consultations with

Local communities Municipal authorities/civil society stakeholders Media

5. March 2012: South-South consultations, Santiago

6. June 2012: Global policy workshop, Geneva

WEBSITE DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT PROJECT

Geneva global policy workshop

Dissemination of results and policy recommendations, at local, national, and international levels

Held in Geneva to engage with global agencies and NGOs that have programmes on violence and security issues

To present UTP research findings challenging conventional wisdom to inform current policy initiatives

Dialogue about implications for research and policy, and next steps