understanding your market: leveraging trends and research to enhance admissions and communications...

Understanding Your Market:Leveraging Trends and Research to Enhance

Admissions and Communications

Myra McGovern, Director of Public Information, NAIS, [email protected]

Amada Torres, Director of Academic Research, NAIS, [email protected]

Overview

Demographic Trends

Demographic Research Tools

Perceptions of Independent Schools

Messages that Resonate

How to Counter Stereotypes and Capitalize on Strengths

Demographic Trends

Changing School-age Population

After a 20 percent increase between 1990 and 2003, enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at lower rates between 2003 and 2015.

Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools is projected to increase 7% between 2003 and 2015 (as opposed to a projected 6% increase for public schools).

Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

Changing School-age Population

Source: Projections of Education Statistics to 2015, U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, September 2006.

Aging of America

Today, 12 percent of the total population in the United States is over 65 years of age. By 2050, it is projected that 21 percent of the total population will be over 65 years of age. (U.S. Census Bureau, “Facts for Features: Older American Month Celebrated in May”).

As the baby boomer generation ages, health care and pension costs will greatly increase and cause social and financial institutions to become strained. These strains could lead to a decrease in political and financial support for K-12 education.

Aging of America

Population of the United States by Age: 1950-2050

38%

26%

58%53%

21%

34%29% 27% 26%

53%

59% 60%54%

8% 9%12% 13%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0-19 years 34% 38% 38% 32% 29% 29% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26%

20-64 years 58% 52% 53% 57% 59% 59% 60% 57% 54% 54% 53%

65+ years 8% 9% 9% 11% 12% 12% 13% 16% 20% 20% 21%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: U .S. C ensus Bureau, International Data Base-Population Py ramids, http://w w w .census.gov /ipc/w w w /idbpy r.html

Family Structure

In 2003:

– 68 percent of children under the age of 18 lived with two married parents (compared to 77 percent in 1980)

– 23 percent lived only with a mother

– 5 percent lived only with a father

– 4 percent lived with neither parent. (U.S. Census Bureau, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2003”)

The number of two-parent families is projected to slowly decrease to 23.1 million by 2010. (U.S. Department of Commerce, “Projections of the Number of Households and Families in the United States: 1995 to 2010”)

Family Structure

Race and Ethnicity

Whites will make up only 58% of those in the 0-24 age range by 2015 (compared with 70% in 1990). (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Hispanics are expected to nearly double from 12 % in 1990 to 21% in 2015. (Vernes and Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”)

Half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

Race and Ethnicity

Projected Population of the United States: 1970-2050

72%

15%

3%8%

78%

87%

80% 81%79%

76% 74%

83%

12%13% 13% 14%11%

1%6%5%

18%

9%6%

13%15%

20% 22% 24%

80%76%

69%65%

61%58%

54%50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneHispanic (of any race) White alone, not Hispanic

Source: U .S. C ensus Bureau, 2004, 'U .S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex , Race, and H ispanic Origin,' http://w w w .census.gov /ipc/w w w /usinterimproj/.

The 65% increase in diverse populations will be absorbed by only 230 counties, with California, Texas, and Florida getting about three-fifths. (Hodgkinson, “Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know”)

82% of US population growth since 2000 has been from non-whites (Johnson, “People on the Move: Implications for U.S. Higher Education.” College Board Review, Fall, 2006, pp. 4-9.)

At least 40% of all Americans have had some racial mixing in the last three generations. (Hodgkinson, “Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities”)

Race and Ethnicity

Race and Ethnicity

Projected School Population by Top Populated State (Excluding CA, TX, NY, and FL)

Pennsylvania

Georgia

New Jersey

North Carolina

Arizona

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Year 2000 Year 2010 Year 2030

Illinois

Pennsylvania

Ohio

Michigan

Georgia

New Jersey

North Carolina

Arizona

In Thousands

Educational Attainment

The share of children to be raised in families with college-educated parents is projected to increase from 27% in 1990 to 30% in 2015.

More than half (51%) of Asian children are projected to be raised by college-educated parents in 2015, compared to 45% in 1990.

Source: Georges Vernes and Richard Krop, “Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015”.

Educational Attainment

Income Level in Columbus, OH

Household By Income Level in Columbus, OH: 2007

39.2%

16.7%

20.0%

12.0%

5.9%2.7% 1.8% 1.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Less than$35,000

$35,000 to$49,999

$50,000 to$74,999

$75,000 to$99,999

$100,000 to$124,999

$125,000 to$149,999

$150,000 to$199,999

$200,000and Over

Median Household Incom e:$44,722Average Household Incom e: $56,140Per Capita Incom e: $24,509High Incom e Average: $359,830

Source: NAIS Demographic Center, NAIS-EASI Demographics.

The Barbell Effect

The numbers of very wealthy and very poor are growing, while the number of people in the middle is shrinking

The gap between rich and poor is growing.

Disposable Income

The Middle Class: Dual Income Family $75,000

~ “The Middle Class on the Precipice,” Harvard Magazine, February, 2006

Costs/ Demand Conundrum

• Wages have stagnated and costs are up.

• Tuition has grown substantially.

• Could drive down demand.

Cost vs. Affordability

Balancing operating expenses with affordable tuitions has been made even more difficult by expansion of staff, skyrocketing health insurance costs, offering competitive salaries/benefits, escalating technology expenses, and facilities maintenance and renovation costs.

The demand for individualized services has driven up tuitions. For example, NAIS schools have seen an increase in instructional support salaries from 2.8% or $500 per student in 1996 to 4.4% or $896 per student in 2006. (NAIS, “ Financial Operations Core Sample Stats-Online Participating Schools,” June 2007)

Gen Xers Parents

Some characteristics of Gen Xers:

– Are children of divorce. 40% have grown up in single parent families. As a result, they want a rich family life. While financial success is important, personal lives take precedence.

– Have spent more time watching television than going to school.

– Have an unrelenting desire to use and learn more about leading edge technology.

– Are procrastinators, postponing commitments in order to continue to evaluate options.

– Are a racially diverse group.

– Will pick up and leave a job that does not satisfy them.

Data-driven Decision Makers

In NAIS’s 2004 Hot Issues Survey, school leaders cited a growing consumer attitude that is harder to manage (demands for specialized and individualized services, rising demand for information about the value-added of an independent education).

As tuitions rise, parental expectations for measurable outcomes also grow. They want hard data about outcomes—college graduation rates, job satisfaction levels, etc.

Forecasters predict that Generation X, who grew up on the Internet, will demand even more hard data.

Women as Buyers

According to market guru Tom Peters:

“Start with women. They buy everything. Consider these stats from the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Women’s share of purchases:– Home furnishings ...94%– Vacations ... 92%– Houses ... 91%– D.I.Y. (major “home projects”) ...80%– Consumer electronics ...51% (66% home computers)– Cars ... 68%– All consumer purchases ...83%– Bank account ... 89%– Household investment decisions ...67%– Small business loans/biz starts ... 70%– Health care ...80%”

Source: Peters, “Everything You Need to Know About Strategy: A Baker’s Dozen Eternal Verities”

Women as Buyers (Cont’d)

Trend spotting guru Faith Popcorn summarizes: “Men and women don’t think the same way, don’t communicate the same way, don’t buy for the same reasons. He simply wants the transaction to take place. She’s interested in creating a relationship.”

Educational Consumerism

Trend forecasters see “Ethical Consumerism” as a growing movement making its way to education in the years ahead. Ethical consumers base their purchasing decisions on ethical criteria such as environmentalism and social responsibility.

In the coming years, parents and students may evaluate schools on more than educational criteria.

What are the Challenges with These Parents?

Parents who are consumers are less loyal than they were a generation ago. No longer good enough to say “just trust us.”

Some want their child and the school to be a “winner” whether it is National Merit test or soccer.

Some parents are accustomed to go to the top when they want something done.

Some demand grades be changed, their child not be cut from a team, or the school settle typical teenage social issues.

Born between 1980-1999 when the “thirty-something” baby boomers decided they wanted to have children.– Era of the “wanted child”– Era of the “protected child”

Many adults changed their behavior towards children: children as “prized possessions”-more protective of and fearful about; more “precious”; what colleges are calling “teacup freshmen”—i.e.. fragile. “I’m special, so special…I need your attention.”

The Millennials distinguishing traits (Howe and Strauss, “Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation”): – Special– Sheltered– Confident– Team-oriented– Achieving– Pressured– Conventional

The “Millennials” – “Baby on Board”

The “Millennials” as Students

Gravitate toward group activity

Believe it’s cool to be smart

Are fascinated by the new technologies

Identify with their parents’ values and feel close to their parents.

Most racially & ethnically diverse

Least Caucasian generation– 20% of under 18 population is Latino (NAIS

Demographic Center)

– 1 in every 5 has an immigrant parentSource: Oblinger, “Boomers, Gen-Xers, and Millennials: Understanding the New Students”

Demographic Research Tool

How to find out about your community using the NAIS

Demographic Center?

1. Basic Reports for Independent Schools: They include variables especially selected for their relevance in the decision-making process for independent school administrators (school population, households, income, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment).

– Summary Reports

– Detailed Reports

How to find out about your community using the NAIS

Demographic Center?

2. Additional Reports for Advanced Use: They contain more general variables that provide a more sophisticated analysis of the demographic changes in the American landscape.

– Quick Reports

– Ring Studies

– Quick Maps

– Rank Analysis

– Profile Analysis

Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends

Case Study I: Changing Gender Trends

An elementary girls’ school in Philadelphia, PA finds that the population of school-aged girls is decreasing. What strategic questions should it ask?

– What percentage of all girls would we need to attract to survive? Is that doable?

– Do we consider going coed? Or merging with another girls’ school?

– If not, what financial planning do we need to do to help us weather the downturn?

– Can we work with the local businesses and the chamber of commerce to attract new families to the area?

Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends

Case Study II: Changing Ethnicity Trends

A school in San Antonio, Texas, finds that the population of people of color in its area is growing rapidly. The school currently has 10% students of color. What strategic questions should it ask?

– Given the demographic changes, what percentage of students of color should the school aim for?

– What are the key characteristics that parents of color are looking for in a school? Does the school highlight these characteristics in its messages?

– What communication channels should the school use to reach out to the people of color in its community? Should the school include other languages in its communications with parents?

Case Study III: Changing Income Trends

Location: Boulder, CO

Cities Plotted:6

Cities Score Variable: Households with Income $35,000 to $49,999

Cities Score Colors: A B C D E A - E Scores represent Quintiles of Concentration An area with A has a top 20% concentration of the Score Variable based on the Based ranking

Case Study III: Changing Income Trends

A school in Boulder, Colorado, finds that there are fewer middle-class families in its town and the school is increasingly attracting students from the upper-most and lowest socio-economic brackets. What strategic questions should it ask?

– Can we adjust pricing to attract more middle-class families? Can we increase financial aid?

– Are middle-class families aware of all the options offered to pursue an education in our school (need-based financial aid, merit awards, tuition payment plans, and, tuition loan programs)?

Perceptions of Independent Schools

Strong Academic Programs

Small Classes

High Quality

Teachers

Individualized Attention

Elitist

Safe Environment

Involved Parents

Homogenous Student Body

Isolated from the Rest of the

Community

IndependentSchools

High Tuitions

What are the elements of a quality school? Providing a safe environment

Employing high quality teachers

Maintaining discipline

Keeping students motivated/enthusiastic about learning

Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel

Preparing students academically for college

Encouraging parents’ participationSource: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

What Attracts Parents to Independent Schools?

In a 2003 NAIS survey, current independent school parents highlighted the following factors as influential in choosing an independent education:

– Academic quality

– Small class sizes

– More challenging than public school options

– Reputation for college admissions.

One of the top reasons for sending children to independent schools is dissatisfaction with public system.

Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - General Public Opinion

94 93 90 89 87 87 87 86 86 85

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nt

Random Sample (n=501)

Providing a safe

environment


Keeping students

motivated and enthusiastic

about learning

Preparing students

academically for college

Supporting a climate that

says it’s okay to study and

excel

Employing high-quality

teachers

Encouraging parents to

participate in their child's

education

Attending to the needs of students

with learning

disabilities

Preparing students for life and career in a

global economy

Preventing drug and

alcohol use

Source: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

Top Ten Characteristics That Affect School Quality - High Income Families Opinions

97 97 95 93 91 8884 84 83 82

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pe

rce

nt

Targeted Sample (n=500)

Providing a safe

environment


Keeping students

motivated and enthusiastic

about learning

Preparing students

academically for college

Supporting a climate that

says it’s okay to study and

excel

Employing high-quality

teachers

Encouraging parents to

participate in their child's

education

Using computers and other

technology to enhance

learning

Preparing students for life and career in a

global economy

Preventing drug and

alcohol use


Safe environment

Preparing students for college

Climate that says it’s okay to study and excel


Encouraging parents’ participation

In what areas does the public think that independent schools excel?

Small class sizes Using computers/tech to

enhance learning High-quality teachers Individualized attention Offering opportunities to

be leaders Keeping students

motivated about learning


Preventing drug and alcohol use

Music and arts programs/curriculum

Having students involved in community service

Involving students in athletics and sports

Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities

Having students drawn from a range of cultures/ races and income groups.

In what areas does the public think that independent schools don’t meet

expectations?


Gap Analysis Among Targeted SamplePercent Rating as

Extremely Important (n=500)

Percent Rating Independent Schools As Excellent(n=360)

Percentage Gap Between General And Independent School Ranking

Attending to the needs of students with learning disabilities 76% 24%* -52%

Preventing drug and alcohol use 83% 41%* -42%

Employing high-quality teachers 97% 66%* -31%

Having students drawn from a range of cultures, races and income groups 53% 24%* -29%

Keeping students motivated and enthusiastic about learning 91% 66%* -25%

Offering solid programs in music and the arts 76% 57%* -24%

Providing a safe environment 97% 74%* -23%

Maintaining discipline 88% 65%* -23%

Preparing students for life and a career in a global economy 82% 60%* -22%

Encouraging parents to participate in their child’s education 84% 64%* -20%

Supporting a climate that says it’s okay to study and excel 95% 78%* -17%

Note: “Extremely Important” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Not At All Important and 10 is Extremely Important.Note: “Excellent” represents those respondents answering an 8, 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Very Poor and 10 is Excellent. *Indicates a significant difference from the characteristic ranked as important at the 95% confidence levelSource: Public Opinion Poll, 2006

Messages that Resonate

What are all parents looking for in schools?

There are two principles that parents in our research indicate they most want to find in schools for their children:

Educating the whole child: nurturing critical thinking, intellectual and personal growth.

Attending to the child’s own particular needs.

Source: Marketing Independent Schools to Generation X and Minority Parents, NAIS, 2005

Gen X parents with young children are most concerned about…

Development and opportunity: Emphasis on finding a school that offers a variety of activities and classes. They want school to engage their children and expose them to many things.

Safety concerns: need to see that schools will keep their children safe from accidents, bullies, or other dangers.

Too much selectivity and standardized testing: concerned that putting too much pressure on their children will teach them to dislike school.


Parents of older children are most concerned about…

Rigorous academics: look for schools that provide the necessary skills to prepare their children for college and career.

Safety concerns: concerned about safety, specifically social dangers such as drugs, gangs, and sex.


African-American parents are most concerned about…

Providing opportunity: want schools to open doors for their children and help them succeed in life.

Economic and racial diversity: have practical concerns that their children will be isolated in majority-Caucasian schools.

Before and after school care: single parents and dual-income families in all groups say that before and after school care is important, but the sentiment is most concentrated in the African-American groups.

Standardized testing: are wary of standardized testing. They feel that tests are not always accurate representations of children’s abilities.

Religious affiliations: would prefer some religious influence in their children’s education.


Hispanic parents are most concerned about…

Rigorous academics: see a challenging curriculum as a key to better prepare their children for later life.

Emphasis on moral values and community service: say that it is important for schools to support and supplement moral values taught at home.

Economic and racial diversity: would like their children to be in diverse schools, but not if it means lowering standards.

Standardized testing: Are also put off by an emphasis on standardized testing.


Asian-American parents are most concerned about…

Reputation of the school: think that a good reputation represents a composite of all the other factors they value such as rigorous academics, attentive teachers, etc.

Allowing one’s child to be him/herself: want a school that helps their children develop in their own fashion, however they do not want a school that allows lack discipline or their children to “run wild.”


How to Counter Stereotypes and Capitalize on Strengths

Why some parents won’t choose independent schools?

Economic and racial diversity: say that independent schools are too often homogenous institutions.

Real world experience: say that the lack of diversity in independent schools is a problem because it does not give their children “real world” experience.

Elitism: say that independent schools both institutionally and their student bodies are insolated, elitist, and condescending.


How to Capitalize on Strengths?

Keep message of educating whole child front and center

– Broad range of courses…. Unique approaches to learning… not an overemphasis on standardized testing…

Demonstrate examples of individualized attention:

– “Small classes allow teachers to know students…” “We take time to talk to parents/students and learn what it takes to excite them.”

Demonstrate safety (facilities, behavior policies, etc.)


How to Counteract Misperceptions?

Diversity

– Focus on showing respect for all and communicate how the school works to prevent isolation.

Real world experience

– Counter with evidence of socio-economic, racial, and religious diversity of the student body and ways that students are engaged in their communities and the world.

Emphasize the success of alumni in post-school careers and life. Highlight student work and volunteer opportunities.


Recommendations: Delivering the message Be attentive to the informal ways that a school’s

reputation spreads. Address current parents and alums concerns openly and quickly so they remain strong ambassadors.

In addition to publications, be aware of the messages on your website. – Include information on the advantages of

independent schools and include supporting evidence (i.e. college graduation rates)

– Use pictures of children from all racial and ethnic groups.

– Display testimonials from current or alumni parents and students. Create “do-er” profiles of successful students, faculty, and alumni.


Final thoughts and strategies

Action Steps

Gather data and solicit input from key constituencies. Be data-driven rather than opinion-driven.

Stay abreast of changing trends. (www.trendletter.com or www.hermangroup.com)

Assess the school’s position in light of the larger educational landscape.

Refine/ reaffirm your mission statement. Confirm it’s still valid. Generate a one-sentence short-hand mission statement with accompanying core values.

Hone your messages and communication strategies.

http://www.trendletter.com/

http://www.hermangroup.com/

NAIS Resources that Can Help

NAIS Demographic CenterThis tool is only available to NAIS Member Schools. It is free. www.nais.org/go/demographics

Admission and Marketing Tools (brochures, ad templates, video clips, etc.) and ResearchFind these free and low-costs tools at www.nais.org/advocacy

NAIS Independent School Survey Builder – to be available to NAIS Member Schools in Oct/Nov 2007.

http://www.nais.org/go/demographics

http://www.nais.org/advocacy

understanding your market: leveraging trends and research to enhance admissions and communications...

Documents

ethnicity slide

percent increase

strengths slide

education of children

percent of children

social realities slide

family structure slide

aging of america slide