unemployment approaching fed-set nairuassets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/events/conferences/... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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#MIGlobal
Unemployment approaching Fed-set NAIRUCivilian unemployment rate, NAIRU=Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Percent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Labor market gaining momentumNonfarm employment, United States
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year agoDifference from previous month, thousands
Absolute change (left)
Percent change (right)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Manufacturing jobs starting to grow again, but slowlyManufacturing employment, United States
5
10
15
20
25
30
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Manufacturing share of total nonfarm (right)
Manufacturing employees (left)
Manufacturing employees, millions Percent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Unit labor costs rising as productivity growth slowsUnited States
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent change, year ago
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Productivity growth slowsOutput per hour among nonfarm businesses, United States
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent change, year ago
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Weak U.S. jobs recovery compared with previous recoveriesChange in total nonfarm employment from the start of recession
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87
Percent change, monthly
2001
1990-91
1981-82
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1973-75
2007-09
Number of months since peak of recession
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#MIGlobal
Youth labor force participation still at historic lows16-24 year olds
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Percent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Labor force participation rate lowest since 1979United States
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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#MIGlobal
Private employment grows but government employment stagnantU.S. employment
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Private
Government
Percent change, year ago
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Purchasing managers index indicates continued growthU.S. ISM diffusion indices
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Index
Non-manufacturing
Manufacturing
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Moody’s Analytics.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. small business mood improvesSmall business optimism Index
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Index
Sources: National Federation of Independent Business, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. small businesses find less difficulty in accessing credit
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net percent
Firms reporting credit is harder to get
Firms planning to add inventory
Sources: National Federation of Independent Business, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Domestic banks tighten standards, commercial and industrialNet percent of bank respondents, annual change in C&I
-30-20-10
0102030405060708090
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Percent
Small firms
Large and medium-sized firms
Sources: Federal Reserve, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. commercial and industrial lending
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterly change, US$ billions
Sources: FDIC, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Consumer spending fluctuating around 4% growthPersonal consumption expenditures
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Declining gasoline prices and severe winter curtail retail salesTotal retail sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Sources: Census Bureau, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. corporate profits
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US$ trillions
Source: BEA, Bloomberg.
Note: U.S. corporate profits without IVA and CCA profits before tax, seasonally.
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#MIGlobal
Headline CPI inflation a non-issue, for nowOverall vs. core Consumer Price Index
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Overall
Less food and energy
Source: FRED.
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#MIGlobal
Oil prices plummet to recession lowsWest Texas intermediate crude
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$ per barrel
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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#MIGlobal
Extraction of natural gas and crude oil from shale drives growth in
productionUnited States, annual
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Trillions of cubic feet Trillions of barrels
Natural gas production (left axis)
Oil production (right axis)
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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#MIGlobal
Oil rig count falls but U.S. production increases
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Oil field production (left axis)
Rotary oil rig count (right axis)
CountMillions of barrels a day
Sources: Thomson Datastream, Energy Information Administration.
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#MIGlobal
Value of the U.S. dollarTrade-weighted value of U.S. dollar against major currencies
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Index 1973 M3=100
Source: Thomson Datastream.
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#MIGlobal
Vacancy rates still low for apartments in U.S.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vacancy rates (percent)
Office buildings
Apartments
Retail shopping center
Sources: Thompson Datastream, REIS.
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#MIGlobal
Office construction increasingConstruction completions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Square feet
Office building
Retail shopping center
Retail community shopping centers
Source: REIS.
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#MIGlobal
Auto sales are bright spotLight-vehicle sales, United States
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millions, SAAR
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Some strength in nondefense capital goods, but will it last?Value of U.S. manufacturing new orders (excluding aircraft)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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#MIGlobal
Imports outpacing exports as dollar appreciates U.S. international goods and services trade
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change year-over-year
Imports
Exports
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Housing values appreciate at slower rateMedian price of existing home sales, single family
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Sources: National Association of Realtors, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. home sales show modest gainsSingle-family home sales
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent change, year ago
Sources: National Association of Realtors, IHS Global Insight.
New homes
Existing homes
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#MIGlobal
Housing starts continue to disappointUnited States
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Thousand of units
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Multi-family units
Single-family units
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#MIGlobal
Case-Shiller home price index stabilizesSeasonally adjusted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Thousands, US$
Sources: Standard and Poor’s, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Foreclosures decline from peak in 2009Number of new home foreclosures
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thousands
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Total U.S. credit market debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
'45 '49 '53 '57 '61 '65 '69 '73 '77 '81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13
US$ billions
Total credit market debt owed
GDP
Debt to GDP ratio(1950-1980): 1.5
Debt to GDP ratio(2013): 3.5+
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. households reduce financial obligationsDebt service ratio as a percent of disposable income of disposable income
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Percent
Mortgage debt
Consumer debt
Sources: Federal Reserve, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Household debt fallsPercent of disposable personal income
9
10
11
12
13
14
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Percent
Sources: Federal Reserve, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. consumer outstanding creditExtended to household and personal expenditures, annual change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Percent, annual change
Sources: Federal Reserve, IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Composition of the U.S. household debt balance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mortgage Auto loan HE revolving Credit card Student loan Other
US$ trillions
Source: IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
Historical trend of U.S. household financial obligation ratioU.S. household financial obligation ratio
14
15
16
17
18
19
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Percent of disposable income
Source: IHS Global Insight.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. economy is still below its potential output trendReal GDP in chained 2009 U.S. dollars
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US$ trillions
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Potential real GDP
Real GDP
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#MIGlobal
Repeated QE has led to unprecedented amount of Fed assetsTotal assets of Federal Reserve banks
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US$ trillions
Nov. 2008:QE1 announced
Mar. 2009:QE1 expanded
Nov. 2010:QE2 announced
Sep. 2011:“Operation Twist”
Sep. 2012QE3 announced
Dec. 2013“Tapering” begins
Source: Thompson Reuters Eikon.
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#MIGlobal
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have dropped
-1
0
1
2
3
1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y
Percent
1/1/15
3/20/15
Source: Bloomberg.
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Industrial production has recoveredIndustrial production Index
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Index, 2007=100
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank, IHS Global Insight.
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High-yield corporate spreads near lowsCorporate bond spreads over U.S. Treasuries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Basis points
A rated
Source: Bloomberg.
BBB rated
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#MIGlobal
Long-term joblessness still a challengePercent unemployed for 27 weeks or more
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Percent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics.
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#MIGlobal
Unemployment gap by educationJobless rates for adults 25 and older
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Percent
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics.
High schooldiploma
Less than a high school diploma
Some college orassociate’s degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher
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#MIGlobal
Lower R&D expenditures inhibit U.S. competitivenessSelected countries, most recent year
0
1
2
3
4
5
Israel S. Korea Japan Finland Germany UnitedStates*
France China(People'sRepublic)
UnitedKingdom
R&D expenditures as percent of GDP
*Note: U.S. R&D expenditures are from 2012
Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, The World Bank.
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Durable goods lift U.S. manufacturingIndustrial production and capacity utilization, seasonally adjusted
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Index, 2007=100
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Source: Federal Reserve.
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U.S. manufacturing output above pre-recession peakProduction in manufacturing since 2007
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Index, 12/2007=100
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis.
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
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#MIGlobal
Cumulative Snowfall IndexPopulation under 6” of snow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
October November December January February March
Index (peak 2013/2014 = 100)
Average 1998-2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
Source: National Climatic Data Center.
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#MIGlobal
March high for those unable to work due to weatherDifference from historical average
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Workers, thousands
Source: Bloomberg.
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#MIGlobal
Fed Funds futures don’t see rate hike until DecemberImplied probability of target rate greater than 0.25, by 2015 meeting date
4%8%
25%
31%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
June July September October December
Percent chance
Sources: Bloomberg, Milken Institute.
As of 4/24/2015.
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Disclaimer
© 2015 MasterCard International Incorporated. All rights reserved.
MasterCard SpendingPulse™ and MasterCard Sector Insights™ reports
and content, including estimated forecasts of spending trends, (i) do not
in any way contain, reflect or relate to actual MasterCard operational or
financial performance, or specific payment-card-issuer data; and (ii) are
solely for informational purposes and shall not be relied upon by any
person for the purpose of investment or other financial decisions.
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US Gasoline Prices
Gasoline prices are now down 33.5% year over year,
granting the consumer additional spending power
Source: SpendingPulse™
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
2015-042015-032015-022015-012014-122014-112014-10
US Average Regular Gasoline Price/Gal Y/Y Change in Gasoline Average Price/Gal
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US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (ex. Auto)
Total Retail sales grew by 1.2% year-over-year in March.
Excluding gasoline, retail sales grew by 4.8% showing the gasoline
savings are now being spent by the consumer
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15
US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto
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#MIGlobal
US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (ex. Auto+ex.Gas)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto x-Gas
Total Retail xGas sales grew by 4.8% year-over-year in March.
Including gasoline, retail sales grew by 1.2%
Source: SpendingPulse™
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#MIGlobal
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto + x-Gas
US Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth
Total Retail sales grew by 1.2% year-over-year in March.
Excluding gasoline, retail sales grew by 4.8%
Source: SpendingPulse™
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US Y/Y Small Business Sales Growth
Small Business Retail xGas sales grew by 7.5% year-over-year
in March. Including gasoline, retail sales grew by 6.5%
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
US Y/Y Small Business Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto xAuto - xGas
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#MIGlobal
Regional US Y/Y YTD Total Retail Sales Growth(ex. Auto)
The Southeast
continues to be a
leading sales region,
while the Northeast
continues to lag.
Source: SpendingPulse™
-10% +10%-5% 0% +5%
Northeast
Mid-Atlantic
Southeast
Pacific
Mountain
South Central
Great Plains North CentralGreat Plains North Central
5.7%
7.2%
14.9%
6.9%
4.1%
0.0%
Region Yr/Yr Sales
Growth
Share of
Total Sales
March 2015
Northeast
Mid-Atlantic
Southeast
North Centra l
South Centra l
Great Pla ins
Mountain
Paci fic
-3.7%
-1.3%
6.4%
-2.3%
3.3%
13.0%
12.6%
14.8%
12.9%
18.7%
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Leading
Hardware +8.3%
Grocery +8.0%
Restaurant +7.4%
Lagging
Department Stores +1.0%
Luxury excl. Jewelry (3.0%)
Automotive (3.9%)
SectorsYear-over-Year
March 2015
US Sector Performance
Hardware, Grocery, and
Restaurant were the
leading sectors for the
month of March 2015,
with luxury continuing to
underperform
Source: SpendingPulse™
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US Automotive Repairs and Tires Y/Y Sales Growth
6 months of negative Auto repairs and tires shows the
increasing new auto purchases
Source: SpendingPulse™
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
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#MIGlobal
US Auto Sales
The number of cars sold increased over 40% from early 2010.
Source:Various publicly available sources
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US Auto Sales Annualized SA
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U.S. Housing Turnover
The recent improvement in housing statistics is a positive
for future spend on home related sectors.
Source: Various publicly available sources
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Housing Turnover Y/Y Growth
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Hardware sales grew by 8.3% year-over-year in March
Source: SpendingPulse™
US Hardware Y/Y Sales Growth
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
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#MIGlobal
US Appliance Y/Y Sales Growth
Appliance sales have been volatile and largely
declining year over year.
Source: SpendingPulse™
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
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US Furniture and Furnishings Y/Y Sales Growth
Furniture & Furnishings combined sales grew by
8.4% year-over-year in March, showing that consumers are
making more larger ticket purchases
Source: SpendingPulse™
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Furniture Y/Y Sales Growth Furnishings Y/Y Sales Growth
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US Consumer Airlines Y/Y Sales Growth
The consumer continues to travel
demonstrating experiential spending
Source: SpendingPulse™
0.0%
-5%
-4%-3%
-2%
-1%
0%1%
2%3%
4%5%
6%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Airlines Y/Y Sales Growth Airlines Y/Y Price Index Growth
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US Consumer Lodging Y/Y Sales Growth
The strength in lodging outpaces airlines sales,
reflecting both driving and flying vacations by the consumer
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Lodging Y/Y Sales Growth Lodging Y/Y Price Index Growth
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US Restaurant Y/Y Sales Growth
The strength in restaurant sales continues to improve each month,
reflecting the traveling consumer and the experiential spender
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Restaurant Y/Y Sales Growth
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Grocery sales grew by 8.0% year-over-year in March
Source: SpendingPulse™
US Grocery Y/Y Sales Growth
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Grocery Store Y/Y Sales Growth
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US Fine Dining Restaurants Sales
Restaurant segment year-over-year growth rates in March:
Overall: +7.4% Fine Dining: +3.7%
Fine Dining continues to lag in growth versus other categories
Source: SpendingPulse™
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Overall Restaurants Fine Dining
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Casual Dining Y/Y Sales Growth Fast Casual Y/Y Sales Growth Quick Service Y/Y Sales Growth
US Fast Casual, Casual Dining and Quick Service Restaurants Sales
Restaurant segment year-over-year growth rates in March:Casual Dining: +6.0% | Fast Casual: +14.1% | Quick Service: +7.9%
Source: SpendingPulse™
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US Total Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth
Specialty Apparel sales grew by 6.1% year-over-year in
March, demonstrating sustained growth over a number of months
Source: SpendingPulse™
72
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth Apparel Y/Y Price Index Growth
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#MIGlobal
US Footwear Y/Y Sales Growth
Footwear sales grew by 4.9% year-over-year in March,
demonstrating the unique nature of accessories
Source: SpendingPulse™
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Footwear Y/Y Sales Growth Apparel Y/Y Sales Growth
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US Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
Jewelry sales grew by 1.0% year-over-year in March,
making it the 25th consecutive month of year over year growth
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
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Jewelry segment year-over-year growth rates in March:
Overall: +1.0%Independent: +0.1%
Source: SpendingPulse™
US Independent Jeweler Y/Y Sales Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Overall Jewelry Independent Jewelers
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US High-Tier Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
Jewelry segment year-over-year growth rates in March:
Overall: +1.0% High-Tier: +0.5% - This is one of the few months
that high-tier jewelry has lagged in its growth rate
Source: SpendingPulse™
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Overall Jewelry High-Tier Jewelry
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US Luxury excl. Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
Luxury sales declined by 3.0% year-over-year in
March, again showing that the affluent consumer is
not traditionally spending
Source: SpendingPulse™
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Luxury excl. Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
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-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Monthly Sales Index Year-over-Year Change
Sales Index 3 Month Moving Average (Sales Index)
US Luxury Goods & Accessories Total Sales
The recent recovery in luxury spending
had been focused on only a few select brands
Source: SpendingPulse™
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-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30% Monthly Sales Index Year-over-Year Change
Sales Index 3 Month Moving Average (Sales Index)
US Luxury Retail eCommerce
Using a more concentrated view we see,
the concentration of the consumer on fewer brands
Source: SpendingPulse™
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US Department Store Y/Y Sales Growth
Department Store sales finally reversed their negative
trend benefiting from the early Easter, however they are not
the preferred channel for purchases
Source: SpendingPulse™
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Department Store Y/Y Sales Growth
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US eCommerce Y/Y Sales Growth
eCommerce sales share of total retail sales is 6.7% YTD
in retail 2015, with the growth rates again in single digits
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2015 YTD20142013201220112010
US eCommerce Share of Total Retail Sales US eCommerce YY Growth
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eCommerce sales grew by 8.9% year-over-year in March,
the fifth month of single digit growth
Source: SpendingPulse™
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
eCommerce Y/Y Sales Growth
US eCommerce Y/Y Sales Growth
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More generic
sectors, such as
electronics and
children’s apparel
are the clear
leaders in
eCommerce
growth
Total eCommerce +8.9%
Leading
Women's Apparel +23.1%
Children's Apparel +21.0%
Electronics +12.0%
Lagging
Jewelry +1.5%
Footwear Apparel +1.2%
Family Apparel +0.5%
SectorsYear-over-Year
March 2015
US eCommerce Sector Performance
Source: SpendingPulse™
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US eCommerce Y/Y Sales Growth
eCommerce Shares are growing but at a slower pace
Source: SpendingPulse™
84
In Store
eCommerce
Channel Share
by Sector for
Mar. 2015
Total U.S. Retail Sales x Auto
6.5%
93.5%
Jewelry
17.5%
82.5%
Electronics & Appliances
48.3%
51.7%
Department Store
16.8%
83.2%
In Store
Children's Apparel
Family Apparel
Women's Apparel
Footwear
All Other
Apparel
74.4%
25.6%
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US Dept. Stores eCommerce vs Bricks & Mortar
Department Store sales finally reversed their negative trend
benefiting from the early Easter, however they are not the
preferred channel for purchases
Source: SpendingPulse™
85
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
US Dept Store eCommerce YY Sales GrowthUS Dept Store Brick & Mortar Y/Y Sales Growth
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UK Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (ex. Auto)
The UK Consumer continued to reflect the rebound in the economy
taking advantage of both an early Easter and Mothers Day
Source: SpendingPulse™
86
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
UK Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth - Nominal, Not Adjusted
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-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Canada Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth x-Auto
Canada Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth(ex. Auto)
Total Retail sales grew by 1.6% year-over-year in March,
but was positive mostly due to the early Easter shift
Source: SpendingPulse™
87
1.6%
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-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Brazil Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (Volume of Sales)
Brazil Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth
Brazilian total retail sales rose 4.1% in March 2015,
reflecting 2 additional sales days in March due to an earlier Carnival
Source: SpendingPulse™
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Hong Kong Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth (Nominal Not Adjusted)
Hong Kong Y/Y Total Retail Sales Growth
Total Retail sales grew by 5.8% year-over-year in February, reflecting
the shift in the Lunar New Year to February from January
Source: SpendingPulse™
89
5.8%
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Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
Hong Kong Jewellery Y/Y Sales Growth (Not Adjusted)
Hong Kong Jewelry Y/Y Sales Growth
Jewellery sales declined by 9.4% year-over-year in February,
showing renewed concern by the tourist consumer
Source: SpendingPulse™
-9.4%
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Learn more at:
Sarah Quinlan
(914) 249 – 2069
www.mastercardadvisors.com