unesco islamabad august 29, lahore education for all by 2015: will we make it?

UNESCO Islamabad August 29, Lahore

Education for All by 2015:Will we make it?

2

Main Contents of the Presentation

Gender parity goal

2000 2005 2008

2015MidpointDakar

1. Where are we towards EFA 6 goals?

2. 6 Global Positive Trends

3. 8 Major Concerns and Challenges

4. The Way Forward

31. Where are we?

4

EFA Development Index: significant progress in some countries

Out of 129 countries:

51 high achievers

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

South Africa

Dominican Rep.

Namibia

Swaziland

Lesotho

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Iraq

Bangladesh

Nepal

Malawi

Mauritania

Yemen

Mozambique

Ethiopia

Chad

Education Development Index

53 in intermediate position.

25 far from achieving EFA of which: 16 in sub-Saharan Africa 4 Arab States 4 in South and West Asia 1 in East Asia / Pacific

Index pulled down by low education quality or low adult literacy levels

1999

2005

5

EFA in South and West Asia (Source: Human Development Report 2007-08, and UNESCO Global EFA Monitoring Report 2008)

Country Ranking: EFA Development

Index

Primary Net

Enrolment Rate (NER) %

NER for Girls

%

India 105 89 85

Iran 90 95 100

Pakistan 120 68 59

Sri Lanka - 97 -

Maldives 74 79 79

Nepal 110 79 74

Bangladesh 107 94 96

62. Six Global Positive Trends

7

1) Progress in primary education

50 70 90

Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab States

South/West Asia

Central Asia

Central/EasternEurope

East Asia/Pacific

Latin AmericaCaribbean

North AmericaWestern Europe

Net enrolment ratios in primary education (%)

60 80 100

1991

1999

2005

Primary school enrolment up:

36% in sub-Saharan Africa 22% in South and West Asia 11% in Arab States

8

1a) Progress in primary education in South Asia and Pakistan

*Data of Pakistan and Punjab are from 01 and 05. (EFA MDA Country Report 2008)

5761 65

8289

97

66 68

79

95 94

79

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pakistan Punjab Nepal Iran Bangladesh Maldive

1999 2005

9

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

AfghanistanChadNiger

YemenCôteMali

BeninBurkinaDjiboutiGuinea

MozambiqueTogo

BurundiEthiopiaMorocco

GuatemalaCambodia

IndiaNepal

SenegalGhana

UgandaMauritania

MalawiGambia

Gender parity index in primary GER

1999

2005

Gender parity line

2) More girls in primary school

17 countries achieved gender parity in primary education between 1999 and 2005

In total 63% of countries have achieved gender parity at the primary level

10

2a) More girls in primary school in Pakistan

0.8

0.67

0.57

0.65

0.89

0.82

0.93

0.75

0.63

0.7

0.94

0.72

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Pakistan Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan ICT

2001/2 2005/6

Source: EFA MDA Country Report 2008

11

3) Out-of-school children declining

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Central Asia




Arab States

East Asia/Pacific

South/West Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Out-of school children, million

1999

2005

60% girls in Arab States

66% in South and West Asia

1999: 96 million

2005: 72 million

12

4) Increased attention to quality issues

% of countries that have carried out at least one national

assessment between 1995-99 and 2000-06

24

15

11

15

11

54

69

25

33

55

33

64

44

59

77

65

Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab States

Central Asia

East Asia/Pacific

South/West Asia


N. AmericaW. Europe

CentralEastern Europe

1995-19992000-2006

More and more governments are

carrying out national learning assessments and participating in international and

regional ones

13

5) Increases in national spending on education

50 out of 84 countries outside

North America and Western

Europe increased the share. 18 out of 24 in sub-Saharan Africa

5% annual increase in public

spending on education in sub-

Saharan Africa and South and

West Asia

Countries making significant

progress towards UPE have

generally increased their

spending as a share of GNP

0 2 4 6 8 10

El Salvador

Madagascar

Nepal

Benin

Tajikistan

Mozambique

Mali

Kyrgyzstan

Czech Rep.

Colombia

Burundi

Senegal

Mexico

Ghana

Poland

Hungary

Malawi

Ethiopia

Swaziland

Ukraine

Bolivia

Kenya

Morocco

Lesotho

Public expenditure on education as a % of GNP

1999

2005

14

5a)Public expenditure on Education as % of GNP (Comparison in the region)

Country Public expenditure on

Education as % of GNPRanking: EFA

Development Index

India 3.8 105

Iran 4.7 90

Pakistan 2.4 120

Sri Lanka - -

Maldives 7.5 74

Nepal 3.4 110

Bangladesh 2.4 107

15(Source: Economic Survey (2002-2003) – Finance Division – Government of Pakistan, Page 167, Table 11.5 and Economic Survey of Pakistan 2005-06, and EFA Global Monitoring Report 2008)

5b) Public expenditure on Education as % of GNP in Pakistan since 1995

21.7

2.4

2.12

2.2

1.7

1.9

1.6

2.62

2.34

2.4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1995-9

6

1996-9

7

1997-9

8

1998-9

9

1999-0

0

2000-0

1

2001-0

2

2002-0

3

2003-0

4

2004-0

5

2005-0

6

%

16

6) Aid to education:substantial increases

Total aid includes allocations from budget support and aid to level unspecified

Aid to basic education doubled between 2000 and 2004, benefiting low-income countries, but declined in 2005

Total aid to education

3.3 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.56.3

4.3

7.36.5 6.9

8.29.2

10.7

8.3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cons

tant

200

5 U

S$ b

illio

ns

Low income countries All recipient countries

Total aid to basic education

1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 4.0 2.3

2.8 2.7 2.9 2.94.0

5.13.7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cons

tant

200

5 U

S$ b

illio

ns

Low income countries All recipient countries

173. Major concerns and challenges

18

1) Early childhood care and education:acting on the benefits

Provision of pre-primary

education remains scarce across

sub-Saharan Africa and

Arab States

ECCE programmes improve child well-being and prepare children for school but:

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Arab States

Central Asia

South/West Asia

East Asia/Pacific




GER in pre-primary education (%)

1999

2005

Lack of policies for under 3s

Programmes are not reaching

the poorest and most

disadvantaged children

19

2) Gender inequalities prevail

63% of countries have achieved gender parity in primary education; 37% in secondary education

59 countries have achieved gender parity at both primary and secondary levels

Gender disparities in secondary education are greater than in primary; they favour girls as often as boys

0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Prim.

Sec.

Gender Parity Index in GER

Sub-Saharan Africa

Arab States

South and West

AsiaLatin

AmericaCaribbean

Central and EasternEurope

East Asiaand

Pacific

Central Asia

North AmericaWestern

Europe

20

2a) Gender inequalities prevail in Pakistan and Punjab

Source: EFA MDA Country Report 2008

0.73

0.8 0.84

0.67

0.80.820.77

0.930.89

0.75 0.780.72

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

PakistanPrimary

PakistanSecondary

PunjabPrimary

PunjabSecondary

SindhPrimary

SindhSecondary

2001/2 2005/6

21

3) Geographic disparities

Progress in enrolment has rarely been uniform within countries. Geographic disparities in NER have increased in some countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nig

eri

a

Ken

ya

Eth

iop

ia

Eri

trea

Sen

eg

al

Gu

inea

Mali

Zim

bab

we

Ben

in

Ind

ia

Mau

rita

nia

Gam

bia

Nep

al

Colo

mb

ia

Zam

bia

Eg

yp

t

Nig

er

Bu

rkin

a

Mozam

biq

ue

Ban

gla

desh

Boli

via

Cam

bod

ia

Sou

th A

fric

a

Gh

an

a

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Moro

cco

U.

R.

Tan

zan

ia

Peru

Mexic

o

Ind

on

esia

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

Geogra

phic

al d

isp

ari

ty pre-Dakar

post-Dakar

22

3a) Geographic disparities in Pakistan

23

4) Minimal attention to adult literacy

Number of illiterate adults

increased in sub-Saharan Africa

and Arab States

75% adult illiterates live

in 15 countries

64% are women

Direct assessments of literacy

skills suggest even greater

challenge

774 million adult illiterates

0 100 200 300 400 500

Central Asia

North America/Western Europe


LatinAmerica/Caribbean

Arab States

East Asia/Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa

South/West Asia

Adult illiterates, million

1985-1994

1995-2004

24

Rest of the w orld29%

Pakistan6%

Nigeria3%

Ethiopia3%

Indonesia2%

Egypt2%

Brazil2%

Bangladesh7%

China11%

India35%

4a) Distribution of Global Illiterate Population

25

4b) Number of Illiterates in Pakistan

Source: Census Reports of Pakistan

%/M%/M

55

17.9 16.7

43.92

26.2

21.7

50.38

42.69

33.59

22.0818.64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 2007

Literacy Rate (10+)

Illiterate Population

26

4c) Literacy Trends in Pakistan

Source: PSLM

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1972 1981 1998 2001 2004 2005 2006

Years

Per

cen

tag

e

Total

Male

Female

25% Gender

gap

18.6% Gender gap

27

5) Indications of poor quality

International and national learning assessments point to relatively low

achievement in core subjects (language and mathematics), especially in

developing countries

Low levels of learning achievement are related to :

socio-economic background rural residence lack of access to textbooks in school, books at home insufficient and inefficient instructional time inadequate physical infrastructure and material resources

More than 60% of countries allocate fewer than 800 yearly hours of

instruction in grades 1 to 6

Survival rate to last grade improving but remains low in sub-Saharan

Africa (63%) and in South and West Asia (79%)

Source: NEC 2006 and Pakistan Education Statistics 04-05

?

?

Primary

Secondary

1,000

200

400

600

800

1,000

Enrolmentclass 1

Enrolmentclass 5

Enrolmentclass 6

Enrolmentclass 10

Secondary

School Certificate

Exam Passed

?

43%

girl

When there are 1,000 pupils in class 1, the number changes (comparison of student numbers)

555

42%

432

42%

219

43%

129

Both

5a) Student Number Transitions in Pakistan

29

6) Teacher shortages

Contract teachers fill gap in francophone sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia. They receive lower salaries and less training than civil-servant teachers

Teaching staff has not kept pace with enrolment increases in sub-Saharan Africa and South

and West Asia

18 million new primary teachers needed by 2015

Pupil/trained teachers ratios above 100 in Afghanistan, Chad, Madagascar, Mozambique and Nepal

30

7) Financial resources remain limited in some countries

34 out of 84 countries decreased the share of GNP to education

since 1999, including some of those countries furthest from the

EFA goals.

24 out of 105 countries allocated less than 3% of GNP to

education.

Several countries allocated less than 10% of total government

spending to education

31

The three largest bilateral donors to

education allocate less than one-third to the

basic level

8) Strong variations in how much donors allocate to the basic level

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.10.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.5

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.8

1.4

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

LuxembourgGreece

SwitzerlandNew Zealand

PortugalIrelandFinland

ItalyAustria

AustraliaSweden

DenmarkBelgium

SpainNorwayCanada

NetherlandsUnited Kingdom

United StatesGermany

JapanFrance

IDBFTI

UNICEFAfDFAsDF

European CommissionIDA

Constant 2005 US$ billion

Total aid tobasic education

Total aid toeducation

32

Other Challenges in Pakistan/Punjab

• Socio-cultural norms: opposition to girls education; need for advocacy and awareness raising campaigns

• Facilities: mostly 2-room schools in rural areas

• Education Governance: role of Federal Ministry?, roles at provincial and district levels?, Accountability and transparency mechanism?

• Politicization of the education system

• Inadequate capacity at local levels in planning, monitoring, utilizing funds to meet targets

• Macro Planning: Sector-wide approach is not followed – “ad

hocism”, and piecemeal approach

• Donor coordination…

334. The Way Forward

34

Five policy priorities

Inclusion Quality Literacy Capacity Development Financing

unesco islamabad august 29, lahore education for all by 2015: will we make it?

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