unions - through the recession and beyond

8/9/2019 Unions - Through the Recession and Beyond

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Unions Through the

Recession and Beyond

David Coats, Research Fellow,

The Smith Institute


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Summary

Economic prospects

Employment and unemployment

Changing labour market structure Fiscal consolidation and the age of

austerity

Implications for union strategy andgrowth prospects


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UK GDP Growth 1950-2012 (%change on previous year) (Source: HM Treasury)


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Global growth prospects (Source: IMF)


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The recovery could be...

Sluggish...

...jobless...

...and put at risk by rapid fiscalconsolidation (spending cuts)


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The Work Foundation.

Where have jobs been lost

Recession speeds up structural changetotal employment change Apr-June 2008-2009

9%

7%

84%

Manual, unskilled, admin Care and sales Knowledge associated


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A recession of the North, Midlands andWales

:Highest increases in

,Blaenau Gwent Wales

,Swindon South West

,Cannock Chase West Midlands

,Corby East Midlands

,Kingston upon Hull Yorkshire

Also significant rises in thecore

cities outside London


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Skills key determinant of recessionimpact

Places with low skills beingaffected the most

Places with high skills beingaffected the least

Other characteristics affecting

:impact Employment inmanufacturing Financial services

employment outside SEand Greater London


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Unemployment 1979Q4 to 2009Q2ILO measure all those who looked for work in 4 weeks prior to survey and able to start a job in 2 weeks time; claimant count all those on unemployment register in receipt of

unemployment benefit. Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1979 Q4 1981 Q4 1983 Q4 1985 Q4 1987 Q4 1989 Q4 1991 Q4 1993 Q4 1995 Q4 1997 Q4 1999 Q4 2001 Q4 2003 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4

millions,U

K,seasonallyadjusted

ILO measure

Claimant count


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Where will the jobs be in 2020?

Workforce in 2020

15%

33%

52%

Knowledge associated jobs Care and sales Manual, admin, unski lled


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Public and private sector

Private sector: job growth in sectorswhere unions are weak

Structural change continues to exertdownward pressure on unionmembership

Changing employer

attitudes/policies?

Public sector: Cuts, job losses,deteriorating industrial relations?


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Deficits - ( : )eneral Government Fiscal Balances 2003 2014 Source IMF

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

PercentageofGDP

USA

Euro area

Germany

Japan

UK

Major advanced economies


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DebtGeneral Government Net Debt 2003-2014 Source: IMF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Percentage

of USA

EuroArea

Germany

Japan

UK


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Threats

Unions fail to adapt to the changingworld of work?

Structural change accelerates andunion membership plummets?

Public sector trade unionism underthreat?

Change of government and hostilepublic policy?


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Questions

How do you think your union is doing inthe recession?

Should unions be rethinking their

offer to appeal to a more skilled andaspirational workforce?

How can you develop the strategiccapacity to make the best use of the

opportunities? What needs to be done to reshape

employer opinion and establish a newemployment relations consensus?

unions - through the recession and beyond

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