unit 19 probability of one event presentation 1simple probability presentation 2probabilities...

Unit 19Probability of one event

Presentation 1 Simple Probability

Presentation 2 Probabilities

Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities

Presentation 4 Misconceptions


Simple Probability

Discuss which of the following statements best fit the statement

a.It will snow in New York tomorrow

b.It will rain in Kingston on Saturday

c.You will be late to school tomorrow

d.There will be a hurricane in Jamaica next week

e.Jamaica will win the Men’s 4 x 100m gold medal at the London 2012 Olympic Games

Certain Very Unlikely

Likely Unlikely Very Unlikely

Impossible


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Simple Probability

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Probabilities

a. If you toss a fair coin, what is the probability that it lands HEADS up?

b. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is

What is the probability that is will not rain tomorrow?

c. The probability of the Air Jamaica plane arriving late at Kingston is 0.15

What is the probability of it not being late?

d. A school basketball team play 20 matches a year.

The probability that they win any match isi. What is the probability that they do not win a match?

ii. How many matches can they expect to win a year?

e. It has been estimated that the probability that a person has blue eyes is

Is it true that the probability that a person has brown eyes is ?

0∙85

12

NO



Probabilities







Determining Probabilities

a) When you roll a fair dice, what is the probability of obtaining:

a) A ‘five’,

b) An even number,

c) A ‘four’ or a ‘five’ ?

b) A bag of sweets contains 6 mints and 4 chocolates. One sweet is taken at random from the bag. What is the probability that this sweet is

a) A mint,

b) A chocolate ?



Determining Probabilities







Misconceptions

The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not correct. Explain why.

Misconception 1I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3 times and got 3 Heads.

It is more likely to be Tails than Heads if I spin it again.

Misconception 1I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3 times and got 3 Heads.

It is more likely to be Tails than Heads if I spin it again.

Misconception 2Village United plays Boys Town in the National Premier League.Village United can win, lose or draw, so the probability that Village United will win is ⅓

Misconception 2Village United plays Boys Town in the National Premier League.Village United can win, lose or draw, so the probability that Village United will win is ⅓

Misconception 4It is harder to throw a six than a three with a dice

Misconception 5It is not worth choosing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the Jamaica Lottery as this is less likely to occur than other combinations

Misconception 5It is not worth choosing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in the Jamaica Lottery as this is less likely to occur than other combinations

Misconception 3There are 3 red beads and 5 blue beads in a bag.I pick a bead at random.The probability that it is red is

Misconception 3There are 3 red beads and 5 blue beads in a bag.I pick a bead at random.The probability that it is red is

The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not correct. Explain why.

Misconception 6My Grandfather smoked 20 cigarettes a day for 60 years and lived to be 90, so smoking can’t be bad for you

Misconception 8In Treasure Beach it will either rain or not rain tomorrow.So the probability that it will rain is 0∙5.

Misconception 8In Treasure Beach it will either rain or not rain tomorrow.So the probability that it will rain is 0∙5.

Misconception 7I have thrown an unbiased dice 12 times and not yet got a six.The probability of getting a 6 on my next throw is more than

Misconception 7I have thrown an unbiased dice 12 times and not yet got a six.The probability of getting a 6 on my next throw is more than



Misconceptions






unit 19 probability of one event presentation 1simple probability presentation 2probabilities...

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