Unit Eight The Art of Smart Guessing

• Glossary

• hire n./v.

• employ

• engage

• hire

• for / on hire

• For Hire

• bog down / bog sth. down / get bogged down---- cause to stuck in mud or wet ground; become unable to make progress.

• get bogged down in details • get bogged down with a lot of work • zero in on---- to aim guns / take aim with guns; f

ocus on• exit entrance • outlet inlet • Screaming is the main outlet for his disappointm

ent.

• mass production• mass appeal• a mass of / masses of• Mass • Balance out----to arrive at a state of equality or harmony;

to keep in a steady position so that it does not fall.• Stroke n. / v. • a stroke of lightning• a stroke of work• a good stroke of business• with a stroke of the pen

• Proper names in the text• Fermi, Enrico (1901—1954)---- Italian-born American ato

mic physicist, won Nobel Prize in physics in 1938. His well-known contribution was the demonstration of the first controlled nuclear chain reaction.

• Fermi problems----The problems used by Fermi to teach his students how to think creatively for themselves and how to obtain approximately correct answer.

• The Mariana Trench---- the deepest seafloor depression in the world, the deepest point on earth, which is estimated to be 36,198 ft (11,033m) deep, located just east of the Mariana Islands near Philippine.

• Stan Mason---- See Page119, Notes 6

• This expository essay can be divided into 3 parts

• Part 1 (para.1—5)

• Part 2(para 6—18)

• Part 3 para.19—20)

• Part 1 (para. 1—5)• Para. 1• be tired with / from • be tired of / be sick of / be weary of / be bored

with(by) • the sameness of her life• her monotonous life • a one-question quiz • She took part in a quiz on TV last night.

• Para 4• (make) a completely wild guess---- a simply

groundless prediction far from being correct. • Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to

come up with the “exactly right” answer?---- Did you get so tied up in these complex math figures that you were unable to give the “exactly right” answer?

• zero in on---- work out; focus on one’s attention• Did you zero in on the two most important problems

——how deep is the Mariana Trench and how fast might a cannonball fall through the water——then hazard a guesstimate?---- Did you focus all your attention on the two most important problems—— how deep is the Mariana Trench and how fast might a cannonball fall through the water—— then make an estimation which may not be exactly right?

• Para 5• To risk an approximation----venture to make

an estimate that is not exactly right but nearly right.

• 1) Why did the author decide on a one-question quiz?

• …to find out how resourceful a thinker, the new hire might be.

• 2) What is the question in quiz?• “How long it will take for the cannonball to reach

the bottom of the Ocean?”

• 3) In para.4 the author raised three questions, point out the question please.

• Q1 Did you make a completely wild guess?• Q2 Did you get too bogged down in the details? Q3 Did you zero in on the two most important

problems (how deep and how fast), then hazard a guesstimate?

• 4) Which question of the three do you think is helpful to solving the problem?

• Q3• ** In part 1, the author describes the one-question

quiz he designed. He presents three different approaches to the answer in the form of questions. The third question provides a clue to the thinker to get nearly correct answer.

• Part 2 (para.6—18)• Para 6• make sure of / make sure that• be sure of / be sure that• be sure to v.• Your best guess will often be the best you

can do.---- Your most reasonable guess will often be the utmost you can do.

• do / try one’s best ---- do / try one’s utmost

• Para. 7• visual display (unit)---- a device which display

s data on a screen • conventional outlets---- traditional shops• Where is the outlet of the lake?• He needs an outlet for his strong feeling.• The cosmetics firm has ten outlets in

Guangzhou

mass merchandisers---- large numbers of

shops or stores

• Para. 8• from around the country---- from all parts of t

he country; from the country all over• marketing consultant---- an expert who gives

advice on marketing• 顾客 guest (travel agency, hotel, restaurant)• customer (shops, stores)• client (banks, lawyer’s offices)

• Para. 9

• What is a Fermi problem?

• A Fermi problem named after Nobel Prize-winning scientist Enrico Fermi, who used problems to teach his students how to think creatively for themselves and how to obtain approximately correct answer.

• Para. 10• piano tuners---- persons who adjust pianos to the

correct pitch / tune • in tune; out of tune• breaking it down---- analyzing it by dividing it into• more manageable questions---- the questions whi

ch are easier to deal with.• assume / suppose • assuming that / supposing that / suppose that…• on the assumption that… • We are working on the assumption that the time o

f death was after midnight. (T)• The law of averages works universally (T)• That makes 50,000 tunings a year.---- Therefore, 5

0,000 pianos are to be tuned each year.

• Para. 12• at all points---- in all respects• at any point---- in any respect • Your mistakes will frequently balance out.---- The effect of your mistakes will frequently be minimized.• Balance out---- keep in a state of balance; offset; counteract• This years profits will balance out our previous losses.

• Para 14• Elegant---- tasteful; concise• The black, being warmed most by the sun, w

as sunk so low as to be below the stroke of the sun’s rays;---- The black cloth absorbed the heat of the sun most, so, it sank so deep below that the sunrays could not reach it. / The black broadcloth, which was warmed most by the sun, went down so low as to be out of the reach of the sun rays.

• Para. 15• cookware• hardware• software soft wares• ovenware• earthenware• Para. 17• come up with---- put forward; discover

• Para. 18• Fermi would have approved.---- If Fermi had

been alive, he would have approved of Stan Mason’s resourceful way to approximate the answer.

• ** In this part, the author refers to the universal significance of smart guessing and gives an example to show what scientists call a Fermi problem. Then, he defines, explains and illustrates Fermi problem with typical examples.

• Please point out the example of what scientists call a Fermi problem.

• In order to write a marketing plan for a new telephone device, you must know the number of “phone stores” in the United States. The question of phone stores was an example of a Fermi problem..

• In order to explain a Fermi problem, what other examples are mentioned by the writer?

• Three examples: 1. Ask his university students how many piano tuners there were in Chicago. 2. You know black absorbs the most heat, while white reflects the most, what about the other colors in between? Ben Frenklin’s solution was elegant. 3. Where were the microwave’s “hot spots”? Stan Mason developed microwave cookware.

• Part 3 (para.19—20)

• ** In this concluding part, the writer answers the question put forward in the beginning. He not only tells us the calculating process, but also the smart guessing process that help us arrive at an approximately correct answer.

• Exercises • Answer questions• 1. Two reasons. He was tired of asking the same

question during interviews. He intended to find out how resourceful the interviewee might be.

• 2. The best solution is to risk an approximation since there isn’t enough information for you to come up with an exactly correct answer.

• 3. It means a great deal for business or creativity as we need to make decisions when full information does not exist.

• How can you guess the correct answer to the challenging questions?

• 1. possess extensive knowledge of various subjects.

• 2. be imaginative, ingenious, resourceful and able to think creatively.

• 3. make good use of general knowledge and reasoning power to risk an approximation.

• 4. be good at calculations or in mathematics.

• 4. They call them Fermi problems, named after Enrico Fermi, a Nobel Prize winner. He used such problems to teach his students how to make an approximation when relevant information is inadequate..

• 5. It looked like a mushroom cloud. He had followed a smart way, watching unpopped popcorn kernels in the microwave oven, to approximate the hot spots for cooking.

• 6. In decision making, when the necessary relevant information is not available, guessing becomes inevitable. Smart guessing, which is based on approximations, is employed in such cases. This kind of guessing may prove to be effective and fruitful.

• Explain sentences• 1. Did you get so tied up in these complex math figures

that you were unable to give the “exact right” answer.• 2. Did you focus all your attention on the two most

important problems, and then make an estimation which may not be exact right?

• 3. The effect of your mistakes will frequently be minimized.

• 4. The black cloth absorbed the heat of the sun most. So it sank so deep below that the sunrays could not reach it.

• Sentence translation C--E• 1. Don’t let yourself get bogged down in endless exam preparation.• 2. I carefully positioned the flower near the window so that it could

get plenty of sunlight.• 3. No one would hazard a guesstimate of when the dispute would

come to an end.• 4. Although we have spent too much this month, we will get in a lot

more next month. So it will balance out over the period.• 5. He is amazingly inventive and resourceful and plays a major role

in my career.• 6. After the orchestra had tuned up, the conductor stepped up onto

the stage.• 7. Modern military aircrafts use computers to zero in on their targets.• 8. She has come up with a brilliant idea to persuade her boss to

double her income.

• Translate a passage. C—E• A good way of ridding yourself of certain kinds of

dogmatism is to become aware of opinions held in social circles different from your own. If the people and the newspaper seem mad, perverse, and wicked, remind yourself that you seem so to them. In this opinion both parties may be right, but they cannot both be wrong. This reflection should generate a certain caution.

• For those who have enough psychological imagination, it is a good plan to imagine an argument with a person having a different bias. This has one advantage, and only one, as compared with actual conversation with opponents; this one advantage is that the method is not subject to the same limitations of time and space.

• Topics for discussion• 1. Two factors may be taken into consideration:

– 1) whether the guesstimate is a smart guess or a wild one;– 2) whether the task in which one is involved requires accuracy o

r approximation.

• 2. at whether each of the following might be a guess-maker or a guess-avoider.– 1) a great scientist like Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein– 2) a fortune-teller– 3) a politician like George W Bush / Barack Hussein Obama – 4) an artist like Leonado da Vinci– 5) a school teacher– 6)an astronomer