unit root test and structural change. data generating process y=zeros(300,1); u=rndn(300,1); i=2; do...

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Unit Root Test and Structural Change

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Page 1: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Unit Root Test and Structural Change

Page 2: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Data Generating Process

• Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1);• i=2;• do until i>200;• Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1];• i=i+1;• endo;

• i=201;• do until i>300;• Y[i,1]=9+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1];• i=i+1;• endo;

Page 3: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Structural Change-An Example

Page 4: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Unit Root Tests

Page 5: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Unit Root Tests

Page 6: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Unit Root Tests

Page 7: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

• Y[i,1]=1*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

• Y[i,1]=0.98*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

• Y[i,1]=0.95*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

• Y[i,1]=0.90*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

• Y[i,1]=0.80*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

Page 8: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

Page 9: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

Page 10: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

Page 11: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

Page 12: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Low Test Power Problem for Unit Root Test

Page 13: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Size Distortion Problem

• Y[i,1]=0.90*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=100

• Y[i,1]=0.90*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; n=1,000

Page 14: Unit Root Test and Structural Change. Data Generating Process Y=zeros(300,1); u=Rndn(300,1); i=2; do until i>200; Y[i,1]=3+0.2*Y[i-1,1]+1*u[i,1]; i=i+1;

Size Distortion Problem