united states department of agriculture national agricultural ...2015 forecast season production...
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12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production - Annual
Grain Stocks
Rice Stocks
Cotton Ginnings
Winter Wheat Seedings
January Crop Production Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
January 12, 2015
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes
Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes
All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil
Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil
Rice Hay Taro (Hawaii)
Hay & Forge All Wheat Hops
Peanuts Barley
Proso Millet Oats
Minor Oil
Sugarcane
Sugarbeets
Tobacco
Pulse Crops
Winter Wheat
Contents
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
December Ag Survey
Survey Type Farmer Reported
Collection Method Mail, Phone, Internet,
Personal Interview
Crops Included Field Crops
States All except HI
Sample Size 83,139
Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 19
Survey Overview
Year Principal Crops Change From
Previous Year
Million Acres
2005 317.6 -4.7
2006 315.6 -2.0
2007 320.4 +4.7
2008 325.6 +5.3
2009 319.0 -6.6
2010 315.4 -3.6
2011 314.3 -1.1
2012 324.3 +10.0
2013 324.9 +0.6
2014 326.8 +1.9
Principal Crops Planted Acreage United States
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
327
309
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
335
340
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Million AcresPrincipal Crops
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Corn
Planted Mil Ac 90.6 -0.3 -5.0
Harvested Mil Ac 83.1 +<0.1 -4.9
Yield Bu/Ac 171 -1.4 +8.2
Production Bil Bu 14.2 -1.3 +2.8
Stocks Bil Bu 11.2 NA +7.2
Crop Unit
171.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2 0 1 4 C o r n Y ie ldB u s h e ls a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s Y e a r
1 5 9 #1 2
2 1 0 #3 3 1 8 7 #
1
1 6 5-2 6
1 4 61 5
.& #.
2 0 0 #3 4
1 3 5 #2
1 7 0-5
2 0 0 #1 9
2 0 0 #2 2
1 8 8 #1 1
1 7 81 4
1 4 92 3 1 5 8
-1 2
1 8 3 #1 0
.& #.
1 7 5 #1 7
.& #.
1 6 1 #6
1 5 6-3
1 8 5 #9
1 8 6 #5 0
1 0 0-1 5
1 7 9 #1 0.& #
.
.& #.
1 5 7 #1 8
1 9 5 #5
1 4 81 1
1 3 2-1 0
1 2 41 4
1 7 6 #2
1 4 72
1 9 02
1 5 4 #8
.& #.
1 1 7-1 2
U .S .1 7 1 .0 #
1 2 .9
# R e c o r d H ig h
N C = N o C h a n g e
1 4 81 1
1 6 8 #1 2
1 4 8 #1 2
1 6 0-1 0
.& #.
1 4 5-9
2 1 5N C
1 4 9 #2
1 5 61 1
1 3 81 1
13.2
12.5
14.3
13.7
14.7
14.1
13.4
11.7
14.7
15.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
Billion BushelsCorn Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun SepUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Planted Mil Ac 83.7 -0.6 +8.9
Harvested Mil Ac 83.1 -0.4 +8.9
Yield Bu/Ac 47.8 +0.6 +8.6
Production Bil Bu 3.97 +0.3 +18.2
Stocks Bil Bu 2.52 NA +17.2
Crop Unit
47.8
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2 0 1 4 S o y b e a n Y ie ldB u s h e ls a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s Y e a r
4 0-3 .5
.& #. 5 0 #
6 .5
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
4 8 #7 .5
4 3 #2
4 0-0 .5
.& #.
5 6 #6
5 6 #4 .5
5 1 .56
3 6-1 4 8
-2
5 7 #8 .5
.& #.
4 66 .5
.& #.
4 3-1 .5
4 2N C
5 2 #6
4 6 .5 #1 0 .5
.& #.
5 40 .5.& #
.
.& #.
4 4 #4 .5
.& #.
4 5-3
4 0 #6 .5
3 4 .54
5 2 .5 #3
2 9-1 .5
.& #.
4 9 #N C
.& #.
3 5 #6 .5
U .S .4 7 .8 #
3 .8
# R e c o r d H ig h
N C = N o C h a n g e
4 5 #4 .5
4 6-0 .5
3 8 .5 #1 3
.& #.
.& #.
3 9 .51
.& #.
5 1 #4 .5
4 45
.& #.
3.32
3.65
3.253.17
3.50 3.48
3.313.21
3.50
4.06
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun SepUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
All Cotton
Planted Mil Ac 11.0 +0.2 +6.1
Harvested Mil Ac 9.71 -1.8 +28.7
Yield Lb/Ac 795 +2.8 -3.2
Production Mil Bls 16.1 +1.0 +24.6
Crop Unit
795
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2 0 1 4 A l l C o t to n Y ie ldP o u n d s a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s Y e a r
9 1 01 2 1
1 4 5 38 1 1 9 3 #
6 0
1 7 2 6 #9 8
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
9 1 42 5 3
8 7 64 5
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
8 6 1 #1 0 4 .& #
.
1 1 7 1-5 2
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
1 1 8 3-2 0
1 1 1 7 #1 4 9
.& #.
.& #..& #
.
.& #.
.& #.
8 7 8-4 3
.& #.
1 0 4 9 #2 5 0
.& #.
.& #.
5 7 8-1 3
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
8 9 82 0 7
U .S . 7 9 5
-2 6
# R e c o r d H ig h
.& #.
8 7 52 2
5 8 1-6 5
.& #.
.& #.
1 2 3 9 #2 9 8
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
.& #.
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Sorghum
Planted Mil Ac 7.14 -1.0 -11.6
Harvested Mil Ac 6.40 +3.7 -2.8
Yield Bu/Ac 67.6 +2.3 +13.4
Production Mil Bu 433 +6.0 +10.3
Stocks Mil Bu 229 NA -1.0
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Rice
Planted Mil Ac 2.94 +0.3 +18.0
Harvested Mil Ac 2.92 +0.3 +18.2
Yield Lbs/Ac 7,572 -0.3 -1.6
Production Mil Cwt 221 -<0.1 +16.4
Stocks Mil Cwt 158 NA +18.2
Crop Unit
254
232 233228
245
273
227
236
220
248
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun AugUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
All Hay
Harvested Mil Ac 57.1 -1.0 -1.4
Yield Tons/Ac 2.45 -5.0 +5.2
Production Mil Tons 140 -6.0 +3.6
Stocks Mil Tons 92.1 NA +3.1
Crop Unit
D e c e m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4 H a y S to c k s /P r o d u c t io nP e r c e n t a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s Y e a r
7 1 .22 .3
1 3 .34 .1 8 3 .4
6 .9
2 3 .7-1 .2
5 0 .52 .9
4 7 .1-0 .1
8 2 .42 8 .1
6 8 .5-1 .2
6 8 .3-5 .1
4 6 .1-1 .1
7 4 .11 7 .3
5 4 .9-3 .2
8 0 .3-1 .2
7 45 .2 6 9 .3
-7 .1
6 4 .67 .8
5 5 .8-5 .1
5 5 .1-0 .2
3 8 .8 &N C
7 7 .83 2 .5
6 8-1 3 .7
5 7 .7-1 1 .8
7 7 .53
8 5 .5-0 .6
7 6 .3-0 .75 3
-2 .9
4 5 .72 8 .9
4 5 .2-1 .6
3 6 .3-5 .3
4 9 .3-1 9
6 5 .1-1 .7
9 8 .92 .6
5 7 .2-2 .9
8 3 .34 .9
5 1 .7-1 .4
5 4-1 4 .5
6 0 .91 4 .2
5 9 .6-9 .4
U .S . 6 5 .8
-0 .3
& R e c o r d L o w
N C = N o C h a n g e
9 0-1 .4
7 8 .32 .2
6 3 .9-2 .6
4 9 .73 .9
5 8 .5-7 .6
7 2 .9-6 .5
4 4 .87 .6
8 0 .45 .7
6 0 .8-1 6 .3
6 6 .91 9
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
All Other Hay Mil Tons 78.4 -6.9 +0.7
Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 61.4 -4.8 +7.4
Proso Millet Mil Bu 13.5 NA -26.9
Peanuts Bil Lbs 5.21 +3.3 +24.8
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
Canola Bil Lbs 2.51 -0.4 +13.6
Cottonseed Mil Tons 5.31 +1.1 +26.4
Flaxseed Mil Bu 6.37 NA +89.7
Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 29.0 NA -21.0
Rapeseed Mil Lbs 2.59 NA +33.5
Safflower Mil Lbs 209 NA -0.8
Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.21 -9.7 +9.5
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
Sugarcane Mil Tons 30.9 -1.0 +0.4
Sugarbeets Mil Tons 31.4 -<0.1 -4.3
All Tobacco Mil Lbs 876 +3.3 +21.1
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 225 -11.1 -1.3
Dry Peas Mil Cwt 17.2 +2.9 +9.8
Dry Beans Mil Cwt 29.2 +1.8 +18.8
Lentils Mil Cwt 3.37 +3.4 -32.9
Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 618 NA +124.7
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
Potatoes, all Mil Cwt 447 +0.9 +2.8
Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 29.6 NA +19.4
Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.69 NA -6.9
Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 2.78 NA -4.9
Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 3.24 NA +4.5
Hops Mil Lbs 71.0 NA +2.5
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2014 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Estimate Season
Stocks
Wheat, All Bil Bu 1.52 NA +3.4
Barley Mil Bu 158 NA -6.9
Oats Mil Bu 62.2 NA +29.5
Crop Unit
2.64
2.38
2.51
2.822.87
3.14
2.86
2.99
2.85
2.62
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15
Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks
United States
Supply Sep Dec Mar JunUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
Winter Wheat Seedings
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Wheat, Winter
Planted Mil Ac 40.5 NA -4.6
Crop Unit
40.5
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
1-12-15
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
2 0 1 5 W in te r W h e a t P la n te d A r e a( 0 0 0 ) A c r e s a n d C h a n g e F r o m P r e v io u s Y e a r
1 9 5-6 0
91 3 9 0
-7 5
4 5 0-1 0
2 5 0 0-2 5 0
.& #.
7 5-5
2 05
3 2 02 0
7 5 0-3 0
5 5 0-1 9 0
3 6 0-3 0
2 4-2
9 4 0 0-2 0 0 6 4 0
1 0
1 3 0-3 0
.& #.
3 3 5-5
.& #.
5 0 0-7 0
4 86
1 5 0-8 0
6 5 0-2 3 0
2 3 0 0-2 0 0
1 7 0 01 5 01 4
-1
.& #.
3 0-3
3 5 0-3 0
1 0 5-1 5
7 7 0-6 0
4 0 0-4 7 0
5 4 0-8 0
5 1 0 0-2 0 0
7 8 03 0
1 9 05
.& #.
1 9 5-3 5
U .S . 4 0 ,4 5 2
-1 ,9 4 7
& R e c o r d L o w
N C = N o C h a n g e
1 4 8 02 7 0
5 0 0-3 0
5 9 0 0-1 0 0
1 2 0 &N C
.& #.
3 0 01 0
1 8 0 01 0 0
7 &-3
2 3 0-6 5
1 4 55
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
Objective Surveys
(Size and Drop) Fruit Maturity Row Count
Survey Type Field Observations Laboratory Tests Field Observations
Crops Included All except
Fallglo tangerines
Oranges excl.
Navels
Non-Valencia
Oranges and
Tangelos
Sample Size 1,695 groves 324 samples 59,992 rows
Collection Period Dec 15-29 Dec 30-31 Dec 30-31
Test Period -- Jan 5-6
Survey Overview Florida Citrus
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
January 2015 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
January Previous Previous
2015 Forecast Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 6.72 -3.5 -0.9
Grapefruit Mil Tons 1.04 +1.0 -1.4
Lemons Thou Tons 888 +5.7 +6.7
Tangelos Thou Tons 36.0 NC -10.0
Tangerines &
MandarinsThou Tons 748 -2.6 +3.0
Crop Unit
USDA-NASS
1-12-15
Release Date Report Title
January 23
Cotton Ginnings
Cattle on Feed
Noncitrus Fruits and Nut - Preliminary
January 29 Peanut Stocks and Processing
Vegetables - Annual
January 30 Agricultural Prices, Cattle, and Sheep and Goats
February 10 Crop Production
February 24 Crop Values
Upcoming Reports
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