University Entrance Ratesof Ontario Residents:

Regional and Gender Analysis

CUPA Conference (University of Guelph)June 24, 2009

Ian Calvert, Carleton UniversityDave Smith, York University

Outline

• Background and objective• Methodology• Ontario picture 1989 to 2007• Regional and gender analysis 1989 to 2007• Population projections to 2021• New-entrant scenarios to 2021• Discussion• References

Background and Objective

• CESPA* has developed a “flow-through” model as a tool to estimate future undergraduate enrolment at Ontario universities, and associated grant-funding implications

• This model relies on estimates of new, full-time entrants into first year; upper-year enrolments are then projected, as well as Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs) and Basic Income Units (BIUs)

• Objective of this analysis: to estimate new, first-year, full-time entrants by:– Looking at regional population projections, and– Rates at which young adults from those regions enroll

* CUPA Committee on Enrolment Statistics, Projections, and Analysis

Methodology

• Ontario population data and projections:– Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance– Projections based on 2001 census*

• Ontario enrolment data:– Source: Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities– First-year, first-time (at institution), full-time enrolment– Domestic and International students– Direct-entry programs only

• Focus on entrants aged 18 to 20 (direct-entry programs)

• “Entrance rate” = (new, FT, 1st-year) / (18-20 population)

* New projections, based on 2006 census, are anticipated this fall.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Full-time, Grant-Eligible, First-Year Entrantsto Ontario Universities

Age 20

Age 19

Age 18

Source: MTCU User reports (November 1st count). Note: age is calculated as age at end of calendar year of enrolment.COU-CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

18-20 Ontario81%

Other Ontario8%

Other Canada4%

Outside Canada7%

First-Year, Full-time Students in Ontario Universitiesby Geographic Origin: Fall Term 2007

Source -- MTCU; includes grant-eligible and ineligible,first-tim e students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-16

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Total

Males

Females

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

First-year, Full-time Enrolment Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

Total

Females

Males

Source: Ontario Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates by Gender: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

Females

Total

Males

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

Regional Groupings

Southwest:– BRUCE– ELGIN– ESSEX– GREY– HURON– KENT– LAMBTON– MIDDLESEX– OXFORD– PERTH

Central:– BRANT– DUFFERIN– HALDIMAND-NORFOLK– HALIBURTON– HAMILTON– MUSKOKA– NIAGARA– NORTHUMBERLAND– PETERBOROUGH &

VICTORIA– SIMCOE– WATERLOO– WELLINGTON

Regional Groupings

Toronto

GTA excluding Toronto:– DURHAM– HALTON– PEEL– YORK

East:– FRONTENAC– HASTINGS– LANARK– LEEDS & GRENVILLE– LENNOX & ADDINGTON– OTTAWA– PRESCOTT & RUSSELL – PRINCE EDWARD– RENFREW – STORMONT, DUNDAS &

GLENGARRY

Regional Groupings

North:– ALGOMA– COCHRANE – GREATER SUDBURY– KENORA– MANITOULIN– NIPISSING– PARRY SOUND – RAINY RIVER– SUDBURY– THUNDER BAY– TIMISKAMING

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

GTA excl. Toronto

Central

Toronto

East

Southwest

North

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

Ontario Regional Origin of First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18-20

Southwest9%

Central17% Toronto

22%

GTA excl. Toronto

34%

East14%

North4%

Source: MTCU; first-time students (at institution) onlyCUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

1989 2007

Southwest14%

Central18%

Toronto25%

GTA excl. Toronto

23%East14%

North6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Female Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Females

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North

Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time, Male Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Regional Entrance Rates: First-year, FT Students Aged 18-20 from Ontario -- Males

GTA excl. Toronto

Toronto

East

Central

Southwest

North

Note: includes First-tim e (at institution), Full-tim e Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Total

Male

Female

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

Projection of Ontario Population Aged 18 to 20

Other OntarioGTA

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-13

Enrolment Scenarios

• Scenario 1: constant (i.e., entrance rates stay at 2007 levels)

• Scenario 2: rates continue trend of past three years• Scenario 3: rates continue trend of past five years*• Scenario 4: rates continue trend of past ten years*• Scenario 5: rates continue trend of all years (since 1989)*• For each scenario, two variations:

– Provincial entrance rate

– Region/gender entrance rates

* Rates for years 2002 to 2004 have been excluded because of the double cohort

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Entrance Rates: First-year, Full-time Students Aged 18 to 20 from Ontario

GTA

Total

Other Ontario

Note: includes First-time (at institution), Full-time Ontario university students only. Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios

3-year trend

5-year trend

10-year trend

All-year trend

Constant rates

Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

+90%

+40%

+22%

+17%

0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

First Year, FT, 18-to-20 Enrolment Scenarios

5-year trend

10-year trend

Constant rates

Notes: First-time (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estimating rate changes.Region/gender based rates usedSources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

+40%

+22%

0%

50,000

52,500

55,000

57,500

60,000

62,500

65,000

67,500

70,000

72,500

75,000

77,500

80,000

82,500

1st Year, FT, 18-to-20 EnrolmentBased on 5-Yr. Entrance-Rate Trend

Region/gender-based

Using provincial rates

Note: First-tim e (at institution) Ontario university students only. Years 2002 to 2004 excluded when estim ating rate changes.Sources: MTCU (students); Ministry of Finance (population). CUPA (CESPA) 2009-05-31

Southwest8%

Central15%

Toronto22%

GTA excl. Toronto40%

East12%

North3%

First-Year, Full-time Students Aged 18 - 20by Region: Fall Term 2021 (Constant Rate Scenario)

Source: CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

Discussion Points

• What if we close the gender gap?– Constant 2007 female entrance rates applied to males, by

region +16%* enrolment in 2021

• What if we close the regional gap?– Constant 2007 male/female GTA entrance rates applied to

all regions +20% enrolment in 2021

• What if we close the gender and regional gaps?– Constant 2007 GTA female entrance rates +35%

enrolment in 2021

• What other scenarios should we consider?

* relative to Fall 2007 enrolment

… a Final Comment

• Need to differentiate where students come from, and where students enroll

• All Ontario institutions serve students from the GTA• OCAD, Ryerson, Toronto, York and UOIT account for

52% of entrants from the GTA

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (1)

Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school.CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall 2007 New, Domestic, "101" RegistrantsAge 18 to 20 from the GTA, by Institution (2)

Source: OUAC file. Note "101s" are students applying for adm ission while in full -time attendance at an Ontario secondary school .CUPA (CESPA) 2009-06-14

References

• More information on Ontario demographics is available at: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/

• Statistics Canada enrolment projections are available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/81-595-m/81-595-m2007058-eng.htm

• The Council of Ontario Universities has a wide variety of publications available at:http://www.cou.on.ca/_bin/publications/onlinePublications.cfm

• The Association of Universities and Colleges analysis of trends is available at: http://www.aucc.ca/policy/research/index_e.html