university of notre dame - timothy-judge.com...1 university of notre dame emba 60616 leadership and...

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University of Notre Dame

EMBA 60616

Leadership and Decision-Making

Timothy A. Judge

South Bend – Cincinnati EMBA Program July25, 2013 (1230 PM – 300 PM)

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EMBA 60616


Please turn in your

Readings Summary for today

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1. Introduction and Goals

2. Ways of Knowing

3. Understanding Yourself and

Others

CLASS #1

Course materials are posted on website:

www.timothy-judge.com

http://www.timothy-judge.com/



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1. July 25 Understanding Yourself and Others

2. July 26 Individual Decision-Making

3. July 27 AM Group Decision-Making

3. July 27 PM Group Decision-Making (cont.)

4. August 16 AM Making Decisions About People…

4. August 16 PM And Motivating Them

5. August 17 AM Leadership

6. August 17 PM Leading the Dark Side

7. Sept 12 In-Class Essay

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Today’s Schedule

12:30-1:00 Introductions, goals, requirements

1:00-1:35 Ways of knowing

1:35-1:40 Action Research Project Discussion

1:40-2:10 Understanding yourself and others

2:10-2:30 Exercise: Values Rummy

2:30-2:55 Personality Feedback Reports

2:55-3:00 Exercise: Retirement Party Visualization

Timing is flexible—we will often run behind!

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Class #1

Section 1

Introduction, Goals,

and Requirements

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Course Requirements Grades

Class Participation 20%

Final In-Class Essay 20%

Personal Development Plan 15%

Action Research Report 15%

Readings Summaries 15%

Collecting No’s Assignment 10%

Graded Exercise 5%

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Course Requirements Significant Dates This Week

July 25 Due: Readings Summaries

July 26 Due: Readings Summaries

July 27 Due: Outline – Action Research Project

Readings Summaries

• For additional significant dates, see website or

syllabus

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• Participation grade is based on:

– Attendance

– Completing exercises, surveys

– Active engagement during class exercises and

discussions

• Please, except in urgent situations and

during breaks, laptop lids down and

smartphones/tablets off

Course Requirements Class Participation – 20%

• September 12, 12:30-3:00 PM

• 4 essay questions

– 2 mostly conceptual

– 2 mostly application

– Completed in class

– Draw in both course concepts and personal

experiences

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Course Requirements Final In-Class Essay – 20%

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• Goal: Develop a plan for putting course

content and feedback to work

• You will be asked to prepare a write-up

based on reports and interviews to develop

a specific improvement plan based on your

learned weaknesses and strengths

• For instructions, see website or handout

• Due September 12

Course Requirements Personal Development Plan – 15%

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• Goal: Your team takes a scientific approach

to apply course methods and content to

address an issue in one of your companies

• 5-page report summarizing the problem and

the team’s collective response


• Pre-approved outline is due this Saturday

July 27

• Report is due by email August 5

Course Requirements Action Research Project – 15%

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• Goal: Learn strategies for making successful

requests of others through a real-life

exercise

• Brief (3 single-spaced pages) write-up

addressing several questions contained in

the assignment


• Due by email August 10

Course Requirements Collecting No’s Assignment – 10%

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• Goal: Practice decision-making/problem-

solving skills in “high stakes” context

• On August 17 you will be paired

with/against a randomly-selected classmate

• For details, see course website

• Grade for this exercise will depend solely

on the points obtained during the exercise

Course Requirements Graded Exercise – 5%

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• Understand the elements of good decision-

making, effective leading, and effective

management

• Use a scientific approach to managing

– Our standard approach to making decisions is

flawed—why, and how can we improve?

• Perhaps the central goal is to provide you

with tools and insights to better understand

yourself and others

Course Requirements Goals of Course

1. What is most important to learn?

2. How can we best learn it?

• This course will require very little

memorization, yet there are 16 precepts I

want burned on your cognitive screen

– Begin to consider the outcome at stake here

…What’s the end goal?

Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills

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• We can begin to put things together:

– What leadership and decision-making skills do

we need? (MODEL 1)

– How can we best enhance skills? (MODEL 2)

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Course Overview Two Models of Management Skills

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Understanding

YOURSELF Do you know yourself? Do

others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding

OTHERS Do you understand others? Do

others understand you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving

YOURSELF What decisions do you make?

How do you analyze and solve

problems?

How can you better understand:

• Analytical tools to objectively

evaluate decisions?

• Limits of rational decision-

making?

• Cognitive biases so as to

avoid “blind spots”?

Managing/Leading

OTHERS • How do you lead and follow?

• Are there effective methods

and models of leadership from

which you can learn?

• How well do you understand

the dark side of power and

influence?

Making Decisions

ABOUT OTHERS • How can you make more

effective hiring decisions?

• How can you evaluating

those decisions more

effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well

YOURSELF • Can you formulate a plan to

improve your ability to live a

happy and productive life?

Contributing to

ORGANIZATION • Do you leverage your skills

effectively?

• How do you cooperate and

conflict with others?

Motivating

OTHERS • Do you use the most effective

means of motivating others?

• Are there ways to improve

your motivations?

MODEL 1: Model of Effectiveness We Will Follow Throughout Course

Deciding/Solving

WITH OTHERS • How can you better under-

stand -- and thus resist where appropriate -- group pressure –

for conformity?

• How do you decide in group?

• How do you make the most of

your group’s resources?

Do you achieve synergy?

MODEL 2: Process (How) Learning Model We Will Follow

ABSTR

AC

T

CO

NC

RET

E ACTIVE PASSIVE

Experience (in/out class)

Exercises

PDP (Personal Development Plan)

Case studies

Readings

Final In-Class Essay

Collecting No’s

Action research project Class participation

Exercises Readings

PDP Exercises

Case studies Collecting No’s

Collecting No’s

LAISSEZ

FAIRE DO

ING

OBSER

VIN

G FEELING

THINKING

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• Most of what we’ll acquire will be from

taking a few concepts and “working them”

– Class discussions

– Case discussions

– Exercises

– Feedback

– Application-oriented assignments

• Research-to-application focus

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Learning Objectives The Method to Our Madness

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Class #1

Section 2

Ways of Knowing

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Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Managing/Leading







influence?

Making Decisions





effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well




Contributing to


effectively?



Motivating




your motivations?


Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Deciding/Solving



for conformity?





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Learning How to

Better Decide, Manage,

and Lead

Effectiveness!

Understanding

Yourself

Understanding

Others

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Importance of Behavioral Skills Manager’s Challenge

• At the same time that a manager is held

“accountable” by his/her leaders for results,

the manager is “dependent” on the efforts

of others to make these results possible

– The dual pressure of the hard (numbers and

outcomes) and the soft (behavioral skills and

processes) are not always congruent and almost

always difficult

– But the hard and soft have permeable

boundaries

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Is It Just Intuition?

• Intuition is important, but it must be informed

– Why make decisions about people in a manner

any different from other applications?

Whenever I’ve taken risks, it’s been after satisfying

myself that the research and the market studies

supported my instincts. I may act on my intuition--but

only if my hunches are supported by the facts.

– Lee Iacocca

– Good methods = inoculation against fads

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Ways of Knowing What Are Research Methods?

• Research methods describe the processes

used to produce scientific understanding

• Today’s overview

– Usefulness of, and barriers to, scientific method

– Overview of the scientific process

– Criteria for inferring cause

» Covariation

» Experimental design

– Process of generalizing

– Application

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• The problem of induction based on

experience

– Problem of observation: All swans are white

– Problem of inference: Challenger/Columbia

– Problem of observation and inference: Housing

bubble and financial markets crash

• Induction is useful, but needs also to be

accompanied with theories and evidence

that go beyond one’s perceived experience

Why Study Research Methods?

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Ways of Knowing

Intuition Authority Hope and Faith

Personal

Experience Rationalism

Scientific

Method

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The Purposes of Science

Explanation Control

Description Prediction

Four Key Objectives of Science

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Scientific approach is used to study Human

Resources

There are issues with quantifying and

predicting human behavior, but objective

studies provide proofs which can yield

organizational improvements when applied

Statistical analysis is key

See handout “Measurement and Statistical

Issues in Human Resource Management” (also

on website)

Statistical Methodology

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Moneyball

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Criteria for Inferring Cause

Selection Threat History Threat Faulty Design

Eliminate Alternative Explanations

Covariation

Test of Mean Difference Correlation Coefficient

Temporal Precedence

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Covariation Differences in Means

SEX

Number

Mean

Standard

Deviation

Probability

0=Female

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3.51

0.60

0.45

1=Male

225

3.44

0.57

Question: “Do men and women in our company differ in

their commitment to their careers?”

Answer...

Career Commitment

654321

Org

an

iza

tion

al C

om

mitm

en

t

5 .0

4 .5

4 .0

3 .5

3 .0

2 .5

2 .0

1 .5

Covariation Strong Correlation (r=+.53)

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Hours Worked Per Week

100806040200

Car

eer C

omm

itmen

t

6

5

4

3

2

1

Covariation Moderate Correlation (r=+.22)

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Age

706050403020

Hou

rs W

orke

d P

er W

eek

100

80

60

40

20

0

Covariation Weak Correlation (r=+.08)

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Correlations and Causation

• Though correlation is a powerful tool, it is

important to remember that it doesn’t prove

causation

• Correlations can be improperly interpreted

due to

– Spurious correlation (omitted variable)

– Reverse causality

• More on this later

Gender of Applicant Number of Applicants Percent Admitted

Male 2,691 0.45

Female 1,835 0.30

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Interpreting Data

Question: Are college admissions biased

against female applicants?

Men Women

Major # Apps % Admit # Apps % Admit

A 825 0.62 108 0.82

B 560 0.63 25 0.68

C 325 0.37 593 0.34

D 417 0.33 375 0.35

E 191 0.28 393 0.24

F 373 0.06 341 0.07

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Spurious Causation

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The Judge Model Processes Underlying Effective Management

Intuition/

Insight

Systematic

Approach

Experience/

Observation

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Class #1

Section 3

Action Research Project

Discussion

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Class #1

Section 4

Knowing Yourself (and Others)

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Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving



problems?



evaluate decisions?


making?



Managing/Leading







influence?

Making Decisions





effectively?

FUNDAMENTAL APPLIED

INNER

PRIVATE

SELF

Animus

OUTER

PUBLIC

SELF

Persona

Living Well




Contributing to


effectively?



Motivating




your motivations?


Understanding


others know you?

• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Understanding



• Personality

• Values

• Attitudes

Deciding/Solving



for conformity?





45

Outline Knowing Yourself

• Nature v. nurture as causes of who we are

– Behavioral genetics primer

– Evidence: nature v. nurture

– Personality

• Structure of personality—Big Five

– Big Five traits

– Meaning, implications, and importance of traits

• Your personality

– Your personality profile

– Who we are and if/how we can change

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Knowing Yourself Nature v. Nurture

• One of the central ways we can learn more

about ourselves—and others—is to learn about

the general causes of behavior

Are we a product of our environment, or are

we a product of our genes?

• This is an age-old question, but in the past 20

years, a tremendous amount of scientific

evidence has accumulated

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• Socially desirable behaviors

Diet/weight

Exercise/fitness

• Socially undesirable behaviors

Drug use

Smoking

Effects of Environment Comparison of Heredity v. Environment

48 48

Heritability

of Body

Mass Index

(BMI)

Shared

genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

M F M F M F

Hjelmborg et

al. (2008)

10,556 Finn twins

80% 82% 7% 4% 13% 14%

Hur (2007)

888 Korean twins

82% 87% 0% 0% 18% 13%

Schousbo et al.

(2004)

624 Danish twins

65% 61% 5% 8% 30% 31%

Environment Genes and Body Mass Index (BMI)

49 49

Sample Genes Environment Unique

Australia (males) 22.9 20.6 56.6

Australia (females) 31.1 16.4 52.5

Denmark (males) 44.4 4.7 51.0

Denmark (females) 50.1 3.1 46.8

Finland (males) 55.8 6.2 38.0

Finland (females) 61.0 0.0 39.0

Netherlands (males) 68.1 2.7 29.2

Netherlands (females) 50.3 13.3 36.5

Norway (males) 33.6 31.1 35.4

Norway (females) 56.6 0.0 43.4

Sweden (males) 63.9 0.0 36.1

UK (females) 70.5 0.0 29.5

MEAN 51.4 7.5 41.1

Environment Behavioral Genetics Study of Exercise

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Drug Shared

genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

Any 77% 0% 23%

Cannabis 76% 0% 24%

Stimulants 76% 0% 24%

Psychedelics 81% 0% 19%

Opiates 44% 33% 23%

Cocaine 44% 13% 43%

Mean 66% 8% 26%

Source: Kendler et al. (2006) study of 1,386 Norwegian twin pairs

Environment Drug Use

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Study Shared

Genes

Shared

environment

Non-shared

environment

659 American

male twins 64% 19% 17%

434 American

female twins 77% 0% 23%

1063 Australian


851 American


1979 Australian


Environment Smoking

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• Relative to differences in genes, differences

in environment appear to play a minor role

in variability in socially desirable (weight,

exercise, altruism, etc.) and undesirable

(drug use, criminality, infidelity) behaviors

Nature v. Nurture: Summary

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• Why are genes so important to behavior?

• The effect of genes on behavior is

expressed through inherited traits

– Intelligence

– Physiological and neuropsychological

processes (e.g., neurotransmitters: serotonin,

adrenalin, dopamine)

– Personality (of course related to above)

Nature v. Nurture: What Does It All Mean?

54

Personality Definition

• A relatively stable set of traits that

determine an individual’s adjustment to

his/her environment

• Personality is relatively stable in the short-

term, but it does change

• Why measure personality?

– In order to become more effective leaders,

managers, and people, we must first

understand ourselves – and understand others

(what makes others ‘tick’)

55

Structure of Personality

• Research suggests there are five main

aspects of our personalities

– Explains 75% of variability in personality

• This structure is called “Big Five” or “five-

factor model”

– 40-60% heritable; very small (5%) environment

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Neuroticism (emotional adjustment)

– anxious/stressed, depressed/moody

Extraversion

– sociable, dominant, positive emotions

Openness to experience

– creative, perceptive, intellectual, and flexible

Agreeableness

– kind, gentle, trusting, and cooperative

Conscientiousness

– achievement, dependable, orderly, disciplined

Big Five Traits Brief Adjectival Definitions

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Class #1

Section 5

Exercise: Values Rummy

58

Values Rummy Instructions

Break into 5 groups of 5-7 people.

Appoint a dealer. The dealer will deal six cards to each group member

(face down). The dealer will then put the remaining cards face down and

turn one over to start the discard pile.

Object of the game: End up with the cards that best represent your values.

The person to the left of the dealer can either take the top card in the

discard pile or choose a card from the deck. Once a card is chosen, either

that card or one from the hand should be discarded into the discard pile.

The person to the left of this person then plays, and so on, until each person

has played six times.

A wild card can be any value you want it to be; you may only have one

wild card in your hand.

You cannot pick through the discard pile; only the top card may be chosen.

At the end of six rounds, take out a sheet of paper and write the values in

your hand.

59

• Do the values you wrote down reasonably

represent your values?

– Why or why not?

• What was the purpose of the game?

Values Rummy Purpose of Game

60

Class #1

Section 6

Personality Feedback Reports

61

EMBA 60616:


Fall 2013

Personality Feedback Reports

Big Five Traits

Anthony Baerlocher

Professor Timothy A. Judge July 25, 2013


Lee Leprechaun

62

• BFI is one of the—if not the—most widely

used measures of the Big Five traits

• Scores range from 1=very low to 5=very

high

• Scores are normed for class and population

– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm

+100 = one standard deviation above norm

-100 = one standard deviation below norm

Big Five Inventory

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Big Five Inventory

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

Last

Year’s

EMBA

Norm

This

Year’s

EMBA

Norm

Extraversion 3.00 -27.69 -80.38 -67.23

Agreeableness 3.11 -105.35 -126.88 -138.54

Conscientiousness 4.11 54.02 24.92 22.23

Neuroticism 2.75 -44.24 22.14 19.29

Openness 4.00 15.03 41.27 55.88

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• Mini-markers is one of the original measures

of the Big Five traits

– Originally, reduced more than 10,000

adjectives to Big Five core

• Range: 1=very low to 9=very high

• Scores are normed for class and population

– Your score is standardized meaning that: 0 = average relative to norm

+100 = one standard deviation above norm

-100 = one standard deviation below norm

Big Five Mini-Markers

65 65


Raw Score

Popul-ation Norm

Last Year’s EMBA Norm

This Year’s EMBA Norm

Extraversion 5.50 -22.38 -77.23 -53.48

Agreeableness 5.63 -166.67 -100.49 -154.44

Conscientiousness 6.88 32.77 -26.09 -23.25

Neuroticism 4.38 -78.57 38.53 29.64

Openness 7.38 70.78 57.68 48.91

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Other Reports

Big Five Inventory Big Five Mini-Markers

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

Last

Year’s

Norm

This

Year’s

Norm

Raw

Score

Popul-

ation

Norm

Last

Year’s

Norm

This

Year’s

Norm

Extraversion 3.69 -27.50 -16.35 -2.78 7.10 61.92 15.49 30.26

Agreeableness 3.76 -2.23 -68.78 -76.91 6.44 -30.12 -75.99 -86.32

Conscientiousness 4.20 -2.23 -20.81 -34.28 7.75 130.72 8.37 -0.23

Neuroticism 2.38 -34.62 20.43 27.46 3.33 -161.85 0.63 13.59

Openness 3.67 44.30 -12.95 -13.88 7.40 85.04 50.26 44.38

67

Self-Peer Agreement

.01

.41

.26.24

.31.31

.52

.45

.31

.56

.00

.10

.20

.30

.40

.50

.60

Neu

rotic

ism

Extrav

ersio

n

Ope

nnes

s

Agree

ablene

ss

Conscientiousne

ss

Strangers Well-acquainted peers

Source: Watson (1989)

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Self-Other Agreement Class Data

Last Year’s EMBA This Year’s EMBA

BFI Mini-

Markers BFI

Mini-

Markers

Extraversion .60 .59 .55 .57

Agreeableness .35 .26 .48 .57

Conscientiousness .16 .22 .38 .24

Neuroticism .27 -.03 .45 .10

Openness .34 .28 .46 .23

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Big Five Inventory Class v. Population Averages

3.25

3.82 3.73

3.13

3.90

3.54

3.79

4.03

2.59

3.79

3.47

3.84

3.99

2.62

3.72

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

E A C N O

Population Last Year's EMBA This Year's EMBA

70

Big Five Mini-Markers Class v. Population Averages

5.81

7.25

6.49

5.31

6.60 6.50

6.70

7.22

3.96

6.78

6.33

7.20 7.13

3.93

6.92

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

E A C N O

Population Last Year's EMBA This Year's EMBA

3.00 3.11

4.11

2.75

4.00

3.69 3.76

4.20

2.38

3.67

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

E A C N O

Big Five Inventory

Self

Other

71

Self v. Other Averages Compared This Year’s EMBA

3.54

3.79

4.03

2.59

3.79

3.94

4.22

4.44

2.17

3.81

3.47

3.84

3.99

2.62

3.72 3.79

4.18

4.35

2.19

3.81

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

E A C N O

Big Five Inventory

Self-2012

Other-2012

Self-2013

Other-2013

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Self v. Other Averages Compared EMBA 2012 & 2013

6.33

7.20 7.13

3.93

6.92 6.90

7.47 7.69

3.14

7.02

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

E A C N O


Self

Other

73

Self v. Other Averages Compared This Year’s EMBA

74

Interpretations

• Class scores relative to population

– Above population averages on extraversion,

conscientiousness

– Below population averages on neuroticism

– Why the differences?

• Other ratings are consistently more

favorable than self-ratings

– When comparing self–other ratings, how closely

are they aligned? What might explain the

discrepancies?

75

Returning to Your Personality Results How to Use

• Surveys are among the most widely used

and well validated measure--and the most

accepted structure--of personality

• But, no measure is perfect

– Ideally, would average measures across sources

(done for most of you) and over time

• Do these help you understand yourself

better? How you are perceived by others?

– Implications?

– Relevant for Personal Development Plan

76

Class #1

Section 7

Retirement Party Exercise

77

• Readings summaries for Chapters 4 & 6 due

• “Alex Sander” case discussion

• Retirement Party exercise response

discussion

• To Do List before tomorrow

– Read textbook chapters 4 & 6 and write ½ page/each

– Read Alex Sander case and answer questions

– Complete Retirement Party form

– Meet with your team to begin ARP outline

Next Class Individual Decision-Making

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