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UN/NGO/Donor/Red CrOSS/Government Coordination Meeting

Jakarta, 20 November 2013

AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYICS

Mulyono R. PrabowoPusat Meteorologi Publik, BMKG

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INTRODUCTION• Factor Controlling Weather over Indonesia• Prediction of ENSO, IDM & SST

WEATHER FORECAST• Weekly Weather Outlook• Daily Weather Forecast• Daily Potential Flooding Forecast• Early Warning

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MONTHLY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING PREDICTION • November, December, January

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2013/2014 RAINY SEASON PREDICTION• Prediction of Rainy Season Onset• Prediction of Rainy Season Nature

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INTRODUCTION• Factor Controlling Weather over Indonesia• Prediction of ENSO, IDM & SST

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DM (+)

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2 El Nino

La Nina3

CONTROLLING FACTORS OF RAINFALL OVER INDONESIA

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SST

DM (-)

PhenomenaPrediction: Oct  2013‐Mar 2014

Impact to water vapor supply

Impact to rainfall in Indonesia

El Nino/ Lanina Potential El Nino/Lanina Normal(‐0, 12– (‐0, 5 0 C))

Not significant shift of water vapor to Pacific Ocean

Not significant reduce in rainfall in  central and eastern Indonesia in Oct 2013 ‐Mar 2014

SST Normal s/d warm(27 ‐29 0 C)

Water vapor over Indonesia sufficient

Potential cloud development

Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Normal(‐0, 4–0, 4 0 C)

Not significant shift of water vapor supply to East of Africa

Rainfall over western part of Indonesia tends to normal condition

Note:• Reduction of rainfall due to El Nino is weak embalanced by warm SST over Indonesia• Rainfall during rainy season tends to Normal condition• Source: BMKG (Indo)–NOAA (US)–Jamstec (Japan)– BoM (Aust)

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SST Anomaly and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Anomali SML Indonesia : +0, 17oC

Nino3, 4 : +0.11oC

Dipole Mode : -0.17oC

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian OceanSETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian OceanDMI = Dipole Mode Index

Sea Surface Temperature

Anomali SML Indonesia : +0, 17oC

Nino3, 4 : +0.11oC

Dipole Mode : -0.17oC

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian OceanSETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian OceanDMI = Dipole Mode Index

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PREDICTION OF SST ANOMALY(NCEP, UPDATED 11 NOVEMBER 2013)

Nov 2013

Dec 2013

Jan 2014

Feb 2014

Mar 2014

Apr 2014

November–December 2013, SST in Indonesia tends to normal-warm/significant water supply.

January - April 2014, SST in Indonesia tends to normal/ not significant water supply.

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Jan 2009M

arM

ayJulySep

Nov

Jan 2010M

arM

eiJulSep

Nov

Jan 2011M

ar M

ayJulSep

Nov

Jan 2012M

arM

ayJulSep

Nov

Jan 2013M

arM

ayJulSep

Nov

JanM

ar

Indek

s N

ino

Current NCEP/NOAA Jamstec BoM BM KG

NORMAL

El Nino strong

El Nino ModerateEl Nino Lemah

La Nina Lemah

La Nina ModerateLa Nina strong

Water supply shifts Indonesia Pacific Ocean

Water supply shifts Indonesia Pacific Ocean

BMKG

PREDIKSI ENSO OLEH 3 INSTITUSI INTERNASIONAL DAN BMKG(UPDATE 11 NOVEMBER 2013)

INSTITUSI Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

NCEP/NOAA 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Jamstec 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15

BoM -0.08 -0.15 -0.18 -0.1 -0.05 0.02

BMKG -0.25 -0.26 -0.23 -0.26 -0.27 -0.36

Prediksi ENSO:1. NCEP/NOAA (USA) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal

2. Jamstec (Japan) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal

3. BoM/POAMA (Australia) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal

4. BMKG (Indonesia) Nov13 -Apr14 Normal

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-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-

Jul-10

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-

Jul-11

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-

Jul-12

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-

Jul-13

Sep-

Nov-

Jan-14

Mar-14

Indek

s IO

D

Past Analysis BoM BM KG

NORMAL

DM (+) strong

DM (-) strong

BMKG

PREDICTION OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE(UPDATE 18 NOVEMBER 2013)

Summary:

Prediction of IDM November 2013 – April 2014: Normal/ increase in rainfall in western part of Indonesia is not significant.

Prediksi IndeksIOD

Institusi Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

BoM -0.21 -0.14 -0.07 0.01 -0.03 0

BMKG -0.35 -0.20 -0.01 0.03 0.01 0.04

Water supply shifts Indonesia East Africa

Water supply shifts Indonesia East Africa

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2013/2014 RAINY SEASON PREDICTION• Prediction of Rainy Season Onset• Prediction of Rainy Season Nature

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PREDICTION OF 2013/2014 RAINY SEASON ONSET

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PREDICTION OF 2013/2014 RAINY SEASON NATURE

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PRAKIRAAN “AWAL” & “SIFAT HUJAN” MUSIM HUJAN 2013/2014 WILAYAH DKI JAKARTA

NO WILAYAH ONSET NATURE

1 Kota Cilegon, Kota Serang, East part of Serang, Central part of Tangerang, Tangerang City, Central and West Jakarta, North part of Jakarta, West part of East Jakarta (ZOM 58)

Oct II ‐ Nop I Normal

2 North Jakarta Utara, East Jakarta Timur/ North part of West Jakarta, Bekasi/west part of North Karawang (ZOM 60)

Oct III ‐ Nop II Above Normal

3 East Jakarta/ South Jakarta, Tangerang City/ South part of Tangerang District, Southeast part of Serang, Lebak, Depok, North and Northeast part of Bogor (ZOM 61)

Sept I ‐ Sept III Normal

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MONTHLY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING PREDICTION • November, December, January

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PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:NOPEMBER 2013

PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:DECEMBER 2013

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PREDICTION OF MONTHLY RAINFALL:JANUARY 2014

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PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING:NOVEMBER 2013

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PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING:DECEMBER 2013

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PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL FLOODING: JANUARY 2014

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WEATHER FORECAST• Weekly Weather Outlook• Daily Weather Forecast• Daily Potential Flooding Forecast• Early Warning

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PROSPEK CUACA SATU MINGGU KE DEPANTGL. 18–24 NOVEMBER 2013

Region 18 - 20 November 2013 21 - 24 November 2013

Jakarta

Cloudy and light rain, except East Jakarta and South Jakarta potentially rainy light/ moderate to heavy between noon/ afternoon-evening

Cloudy and light rain, except for the eastern part of Jakarta, West, South and potentially rainy mild/ moderate in the afternoon/ early-evening

BogorCloudy and light rain-rain potentially moderate to heavy, especially during the afternoon and evening

Cloudy and light rain-rain potentially moderate to heavy, especially during the afternoon and evening

Tangerang

Cloudy with rain potential of mild to moderate intensity with heavy potential in South Tangerang region especially in the afternoon/ evening-night

Cloudy with rain potential of mild to moderate intensity with heavy potential in South Tangerang region especially in the afternoon/ evening-night

BekasiCloudy and mild-moderate rain, with the potential for heavy in South Bekasi area especially in the afternoon/ evening-night

Cloudy and mild-moderate rain, with the potential for heavy in South Bekasi area especially in the afternoon/ evening-night

DepokCloudy and light rain/ moderate to heavy, especially in the afternoon/ early-evening

Cloudy and rainy mild/ moderate to heavy, especially in the afternoon/ early-evening

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PRAKIRAAN CUACA WILAYAH JABODETABEKTGL. 20 NOVEMBER 2013

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PRAKIRAAN CUACA WILAYAH JABODETABEKTGL. 21 NOVEMBER 2013

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PREDICTION OF DAILY RAINFALL FOR DKI JAKARTA21 NOVEMBER 2013

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PREDICTION OF DAILY POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR DKI JAKARTA21 NOVEMBER 2013

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The following UPDATE of weather warning for Jabodetabek date 18 November 2013, based on today's weather radar imagery at 13:30: --1). An increase in activity in the formation of rain clouds that could

potentially brings in moderate to heavy rain accompanied by lightning/ thunder at 14:30 pm in the area of Tangerang, Cengkareng, Kosambi, Kamal, Kapuk, South Tangerang, Pondok Aren, Pamulang, Serpong, Bintaro, South Jakarta, Depok, West Jakarta, Pluit, Ancol and surrounding areas.

--2). This condition is expected to last until 17:30 pm and extends to the area of Tangerang, Pamulang, West Jakarta, Central Jakarta, Priok, Bogor and surrounding areas.

--3). In condition of significant weather conditions continue, there will be update before the valid period ends.

Forecaster on Duty, BMKG.

WEATHER WARNING FOR GREATER AREA OF JAKARTA (JABODETABEK) Via SMS

Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysicswww.bmkg.go.id

Jl.Angkasa I No.2, Kemayoran–Jakarta

Wather Info: 021 6546315/18Earthquake Info : 021 6546316

Thank you…..

BMKG

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Satellite Imagery20 November 2013, 07.00 WIST

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STREAMLINE

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BMKG

Prediksi sebaran hujan Valid : 20/11/2013 00.00 UTC --- 20/11/2013 12.00 UTC

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WHIRLWIND

1. Whirlwind occurs in a certain location at a certain time on a local scale and short time;

2. More whirlwinds occur during the transition season;

3. Time occurrence is more frequent in the afternoon to late evening;

4. Predictability of whirlwind occurrence at a particular time and location is ~1 hour before.

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POTENTIAL HIGH WIND/ WHIRLWIND

NOTE:

Probability   Low  : <20%

Moderate  : >20%

RegionMonth

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

Jakarta Utara Moderate Moderate Low

Jakarta Pusat Moderate Moderate Low

Jakarta Barat Moderate Moderate Low

Jakarta Timur Moderate Moderate Low

Jakarta Selatan Moderate Low Low

Kep. Seribu Moderate Moderate Low

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Track of Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

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Satellite imagery on 07 November 20123, at19.00 WIST

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Tracts of Typhoons

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