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Unofficial Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10, 2019 – 10:30 AM Present: Charlotte J. Nash, Jace Brooks, Ben Ku, Marlene M. Fosque Absent: Tommy Hunter 1. County Administration ARC Demographics Mike Alexander, Director of the Atlanta Regional Commission’s Center for Livable Communities, provided demographic information, an overview of the Atlanta Region Plan’s Forecast, Livable Centers Initiative, regional performance measures, and the Regional Housing Strategy. No official action taken.

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Page 1: Unofficial Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10 ... › static › upload › bac › 52 › 2019121… · Transp Race Relations Economy Crime Public Health Public Education

Unofficial

Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10, 2019 – 10:30 AM

Present: Charlotte J. Nash, Jace Brooks, Ben Ku, Marlene M. Fosque Absent: Tommy Hunter

1. County Administration

ARC Demographics Mike Alexander, Director of the Atlanta Regional Commission’s Center for Livable Communities, provided demographic information, an overview of the Atlanta Region Plan’s Forecast, Livable Centers Initiative, regional performance measures, and the Regional Housing Strategy. No official action taken.

Page 2: Unofficial Informal Briefing Minutes Tuesday, December 10 ... › static › upload › bac › 52 › 2019121… · Transp Race Relations Economy Crime Public Health Public Education

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+ 1October 10, 2019 Cherokee County

Gwinnett County 2019

Mike AlexanderDirector, Center for Livable

Communities Atlanta Regional Commission

[email protected]

https://www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update/

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+ 3

www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update

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Videow

ww

.gap

min

der

.org 218 Years of World History in 60 Seconds

Color Code (World Regions)

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1.85

1.78

1.87 1.87

1.791.75 1.75

1.721.66

2.55

2.19 2.18

2.031.97

1.88 1.86 1.83 1.82

2.00

1.80

1.89

1.78

1.69 1.681.65

1.69

1.60

2.96

2.802.73

2.79

2.35

2.152.12 2.09

2.01

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2016 2017

US Fertility

White N.H. Black N.H. Asian Hispanic

The Future: Fertility Trends

Replacement Level

St. Replacement Birth Level 2.1

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Global Aging VIDEO Kodokushi

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Changing Global Growth Patterns

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

Looking to the year 2100 Fertility Rate continues to decline 2.5 to 1.9-Median Age increase to 42 from 31 (2018) from 24 (1950)-Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth-Europe and Latin America are both expected to have declining populations by 2100-Asian population is expected to increase from 4.6 billion in 2020 to 5.3 billion in 2055, then start to decline-In the Northern America region, migration from the rest of the world is expected to be the primary driver of continued population growth-Six countries are projected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth-India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2027-Between 2020 and 2100, 90 countries are expected to lose population-Africa is projected to overtake Asia in births by 2060-The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to have the oldest population of any world region by 2100

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+0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Clayton

Henry

Butts

Douglas

City of Atlanta

DeKalb

Paulding

Rockdale

Coweta

Fayette

Fulton

Cobb

Cherokee

Gwinnett

ARC Region

12.7%

20.5%

21.6%

21.8%

21.8%

23.1%

23.9%

26.9%

28.0%

28.2%

28.6%

29.8%

30.8%

37.8%

28.0%

5.0%

5.5%

2.8%

3.5%

5.1%

3.2%

4.2%

4.7%

4.8%

5.5%

2.8%

7.3%

1.8%

4.5%

4.3%

21.7%

5.3%

3.2%

5.5%

7.5%

8.2%

6.2%

10.2%

4.3%

2.5%

6.5%

7.3%

3.3%

5.3%

7.1%

21.9%

21.3%

25.6%

33.0%

24.0%

19.7%

25.2%

18.5%

22.3%

22.4%

20.9%

10.5%

14.8%

14.5%

18.3%

11.5%

4.3%

4.0%

5.0%

4.7%

6.5%

8.7%

6.2%

9.3%

9.5%

4.4%

7.5%

6.3%

9.8%

7.1%

8.0%

9.3%

12.8%

12.5%

9.5%

9.5%

8.5%

7.5%

8.5%

14.0%

12.0%

9.5%

12.5%

7.0%

9.7%

7.2%

16.3%

8.8%

5.0%

7.3%

10.3%

7.7%

9.7%

10.3%

5.2%

6.7%

9.5%

12.5%

7.3%

8.7%

4.7%

5.0%

9.6%

2.3%

9.5%

9.5%

8.5%

9.7%

5.0%

5.0%

9.2%

5.3%

5.8%

9.0%

7.6%

Transp Race Relations Economy Crime Public Health Public Education Human Services Taxes Other DK

Biggest Problem Facing Residents in Metro (Results by County)--MAS 2019

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The Region’s Plan Forecast

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+Source: Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB (Q2, 2018)

Housing Affordability and Transportation Costs

38.9

58.0

74.1

66.164.6

45.2

58.7

63.8

41.6

61.3

5.5

32.8

57.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

% of Homes Affordable to Median Income Household, Q2 2018

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mia

mi

Riv

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ide

Los

An

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Orl

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San

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Atl

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De

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it

Ch

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Po

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San

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Cle

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ork

Ch

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O

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Ho

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Bo

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Bal

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Was

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Percent of Income Spend on Housing + Transportation Costs for Moderate Income HHs

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Neighborhood Home Price Change 2013 to 2018

Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data from 2013 & 2018

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Sales Price Per SQ Ft 2018

Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data 2018

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National Office SpaceMarket totals (CBD and

Suburban)Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net

absorption(Including Subleases)

YTD total net absorption (Including Subleases)

YTD total net absorption (% of

Inventory)

Total vacancy(s.f.)

Total vacancy(%)

Current quarter direct average marketed rent

($p.s.f.)

San Francisco 78,474,725 799,612 2,424,779 3.1% 4,361,570 6% $ 92.59 New York 456,733,421 1,848,372 6,755,285 1.5% 33,249,446 7% $ 85.16 San Francisco Peninsula 29,890,661 758,523 1,545,550 5.2% 3,047,806 10% $ 70.66 Silicon Valley 72,274,038 501,044 4,227,964 5.8% 8,667,271 12% $ 56.64 Oakland-East Bay 52,634,530 187,754 435,547 0.8% 6,553,008 13% $ 49.56 Austin 55,134,649 726,044 2,677,189 4.9% 4,800,713 9% $ 48.39 Los Angeles 188,658,532 810,873 2,695,655 1.4% 25,260,855 13% $ 44.28 Seattle-Bellevue 98,467,553 885,213 2,693,022 2.7% 9,073,968 9% $ 43.99 Washington, DC 336,914,194 341,002 2,554,474 0.8% 53,664,923 16% $ 42.69 Boston 167,667,375 611,028 2,327,213 1.4% 20,070,135 12% $ 41.49 Miami 38,363,936 90,746 341,325 0.9% 5,924,188 15% $ 41.20 Orange County 97,730,884 (88,617) 936,692 1.0% 13,289,158 14% $ 37.39 San Diego 80,150,052 142,214 629,694 0.8% 9,208,611 12% $ 37.20 West Palm Beach 19,762,184 5,423 95,446 0.5% 2,987,529 15% $ 36.87 Fairfield County 41,832,287 160,789 (345,403) -0.8% 9,551,707 23% $ 34.62 North San Francisco Bay 22,180,304 109,945 314,247 1.4% 2,745,061 12% $ 34.53 Fort Lauderdale 21,835,418 209,626 267,956 1.2% 3,036,492 14% $ 34.30 Chicago 248,331,043 908,500 2,264,192 0.9% 38,950,263 16% $ 33.87 Portland 57,899,054 234,761 626,122 1.1% 6,934,130 12% $ 33.37 Nashville 38,493,679 228,955 353,317 0.9% 4,271,135 11% $ 32.64 Houston 169,814,234 428,853 297,915 0.2% 40,192,095 24% $ 31.40 Tampa Bay 37,217,154 242,391 368,674 1.0% 5,116,183 14% $ 30.70 Charlotte 53,119,392 1,000,685 2,587,348 4.9% 6,113,777 12% $ 30.66 Denver 114,552,387 349,945 1,490,968 1.3% 15,497,800 14% $ 30.42 Atlanta 149,058,414 (210,169) 378,905 0.3% 26,866,216 18% $ 29.83 Minneapolis 83,669,585 (114,234) 494,711 0.6% 12,682,877 15% $ 29.07 Dallas 188,894,365 454,377 1,969,021 1.0% 38,955,613 21% $ 28.86

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Rents per SF Trends by Submarket: 2010Q1 and 2019Q1

$17.98

$17.98

$18.17

$18.35

$18.36

$18.37

$18.41

$19.16

$19.28

$19.43

$21.07

$21.55

$23.18

$23.69

$24.69

$26.06

$28.48

$28.69

$30.28

$35.92

$35.92

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00

I-20 East/ Conyers

North Clayton Airport

Douglasville

East Cobb

Fayette Coweta

South Clayton/ Henry

Cherokee County

Norcross/ Peachtree Corners

Lawrenceville Lilburn

Kennesaw Town Center

Duluth Suwanee Buford

Chamblee Doraville N Druid Hills

North Fulton/ Forsyth

Decatur

Cumberland Galleria

Central Business District

Central Perimeter

Lower Buckhead

Northside Drive GA Tech

Upper Buckhead

Midtown Pershing Pt

2019 2010Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis

Sou

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Co

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om

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or

Un

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Co

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sin

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01

0

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0Office Net New Space(SF) by Submarket: 2010Q1 to 2019Q1

Top Sub-Markets

-206,601

-205,146

23,698

55,974

105,757

157,056

213,286

213,581

218,885

233,216

236,858

241,663

282,003

295,278

411,645

520,808

658,117

842,142

1,410,572

1,488,752

1,993,669

-500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

Norcross/ Peachtree Corners

CBD ATL

Douglasville

Lower Buckhead

I-20 East/ Conyers

Kennesaw Town Center

South Clayton/ Henry

Lawrenceville/ Lilburn

Chamblee/ Doraville/ N Druid

Fayette Coweta

East Cobb

North Clayton Airport

Cherokee County

Decatur

Cumberland/ Galleria

Northside Drive/ GA Tech

Duluth/ Suwanee/ Buford

Upper Buckhead

North Fulton/ Forsyth

Central Perimeter

Midtown Pershing Point

Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis

ESRI INFOGROUP Data: Atlanta Jobs before EMORY Annexation: 450,620After with Emory:530,784New Daily Population

2018 Total Daytime Population 853,471 Workers 614,905 Residents 238,566

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Rents per SF Trends by Submarket: 2010Q1 and 2019Q1

$17.98

$17.98

$18.17

$18.35

$18.36

$18.37

$18.41

$19.16

$19.28

$19.43

$21.07

$21.55

$23.18

$23.69

$24.69

$26.06

$28.48

$28.69

$30.28

$35.92

$35.92

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00

I-20 East/ Conyers

North Clayton Airport

Douglasville

East Cobb

Fayette Coweta

South Clayton/ Henry

Cherokee County

Norcross/ Peachtree Corners

Lawrenceville Lilburn

Kennesaw Town Center

Duluth Suwanee Buford

Chamblee Doraville N Druid Hills

North Fulton/ Forsyth

Decatur

Cumberland Galleria

Central Business District

Central Perimeter

Lower Buckhead

Northside Drive GA Tech

Upper Buckhead

Midtown Pershing Pt

2019 2010Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis

Sou

rce:

Co

Sta

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ARC DRAFT S16 Forecast (21-County)

5,697,710

8,600,731

3,556,792

4,729,664

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

Population Employment

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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State Growth

Sou

rce:

Wo

od

s a

nd

Po

ole

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120 Years of Growth

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All Metro Counties Series 16 Forecast Draft

VideoSo

urc

e: C

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s, A

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Fo

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16

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County Age Forecasts VIDEO

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2015 – 2050 Population Forecasts by County

45,258 62,181

41,847

138,922 119,050

294,463

76,609

8,662

277,149

51,747 36,703

227,918

462,735 588,919

88,542

152,707

48,116 100,935

24,073 27,428

37,719

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000Total Population Growth

Total Population, 2015 Population Growth, 2015 - 2050

Sou

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AR

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Reg

ion

’s P

lan

Fo

reca

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20

19

) Se

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16

DR

AFT

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Forecast Population

Change, per mi² 2015-2050

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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Industry Snapshot in Atlanta MSA, 2019q1 JobsEQCurrent 10-Year History 10-Year Forecast

NAICS Industry EmplAvg Ann Wages LQ Empl Change Ann %

Total Demand Exits Transfers

Empl Growth

Ann % Growth

722 Food Services and Drinking Places 240,125 $19,239 1.09 55,963 2.7% 460,437 188,210 237,829 34,399 1.3%561 Administrative and Support Services 235,102 $40,831 1.33 45,668 2.2% 329,094 124,538 167,465 37,091 1.5%621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 133,586 $65,364 0.90 42,381 3.9% 174,862 63,169 68,562 43,131 2.8%

541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 231,483 $88,868 1.20 39,417 1.9% 259,318 80,519 135,002 43,797 1.7%622 Hospitals 100,022 $62,151 0.85 24,395 2.8% 94,716 39,645 42,096 12,974 1.2%

551 Management of Companies and Enterprises 61,277 $124,803 1.42 20,162 4.1% 65,551 21,667 36,760 7,124 1.1%493 Warehousing and Storage 31,973 $44,140 1.51 15,849 7.1% 51,577 16,425 26,413 8,738 2.4%

512Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 14,824 $61,138 1.76 10,026 11.9% 22,070 8,903 10,920 2,247 1.4%

524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 54,715 $85,350 1.20 9,880 2.0% 61,613 21,539 32,807 7,267 1.3%624 Social Assistance 54,926 $26,566 0.68 9,416 1.9% 88,003 37,149 36,456 14,399 2.4%812 Personal and Laundry Services 48,907 $25,571 1.18 9,172 2.1% 70,317 30,922 31,426 7,969 1.5%445 Food and Beverage Stores 56,962 $24,514 1.00 8,206 1.6% 90,678 39,952 46,713 4,013 0.7%611 Educational Services 220,987 $51,627 0.94 7,979 0.4% 240,314 103,564 111,512 25,238 1.1%452 General Merchandise Stores 59,674 $24,379 1.03 7,360 1.3% 91,723 39,009 47,533 5,181 0.8%441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,999 $54,719 1.06 7,314 2.0% 54,788 19,533 29,677 5,578 1.3%

713Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 27,335 $21,638 0.74 6,419 2.7% 48,893 19,869 24,875 4,148 1.4%

485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 16,790 $35,025 0.89 5,937 4.5% 24,174 12,352 8,688 3,133 1.7%484 Truck Transportation 36,793 $52,011 1.20 5,737 1.7% 43,092 15,864 24,427 2,801 0.7%

518Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 11,614 $135,890 1.78 5,018 5.8% 12,965 3,629 7,139 2,198 1.7%

488 Support Activities for Transportation 18,716 $50,895 1.21 4,847 3.0% 24,086 8,139 12,828 3,119 1.6%

711Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 17,168 $57,964 1.06 4,591 3.2% 23,664 9,777 11,300 2,587 1.4%

999 Unclassified 6,955 $58,909 1.71 4,486 10.9% 9,292 3,527 4,818 947 1.3%531 Real Estate 42,568 $68,563 1.11 3,588 0.9% 50,033 21,247 23,373 5,413 1.2%623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 30,668 $31,531 0.47 3,534 1.2% 43,428 18,746 18,569 6,112 1.8%332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 15,857 $56,365 0.58 3,253 2.3% 17,193 5,779 10,874 540 0.3%

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Industry Snapshot in Gwinnett, 2019q1 JobsEQCurrent 10-Year History 10-Year Forecast

NAICS Industry EmplAvg Ann Wages LQ Empl Change Ann %

Total Demand Exits Transfers

Empl Growth

Ann % Growth

Total - All Industries 399,769 $51,586 1.00 53,765 1.5% 520,664 199,086 265,769 55,810 1.3%

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 36,151 $48,418 0.63 11,365 3.8% 48,258 18,815 19,472 9,971 2.5%

72 Accommodation and Food Services 34,177 $18,443 0.95 7,932 2.7% 64,503 26,261 33,051 5,191 1.4%

56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 34,130 $39,051 1.32 4,893 1.6% 48,333 18,036 24,466 5,830 1.6%

31 Manufacturing 29,531 $67,059 0.89 4,672 1.7% 30,687 11,357 19,388 -58 0.0%

44 Retail Trade 51,826 $33,908 1.24 4,111 0.8% 77,291 31,901 40,357 5,032 0.9%

54Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 31,586 $78,290 1.18 3,905 1.3% 36,162 11,068 18,558 6,535 1.9%

48 Transportation and Warehousing 13,450 $49,531 0.75 3,728 3.3% 16,713 6,436 8,635 1,641 1.2%

61 Educational Services 31,698 $42,524 0.97 3,725 1.3% 34,696 14,888 16,030 3,777 1.1%

81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 20,324 $32,711 1.17 3,243 1.8% 27,061 11,166 13,299 2,596 1.2%

23 Construction 31,293 $57,535 1.37 3,017 1.0% 39,145 11,979 21,408 5,758 1.7%

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 8,936 $123,349 1.49 2,908 4.0% 9,749 3,180 5,396 1,172 1.2%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 5,020 $24,779 0.63 1,445 3.5% 8,285 3,383 4,149 753 1.4%

53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 7,702 $58,724 1.12 1,016 1.4% 9,337 3,798 4,518 1,021 1.3%

99 Unclassified 1,140 $45,040 2.65 642 8.6% 1,529 579 791 159 1.3%

21Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 101 $70,131 0.06 70 12.6% 105 34 69 2 0.2%

11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 367 $47,461 0.07 61 1.8% 463 181 238 44 1.1%

22 Utilities 466 $81,939 0.23 -73 -1.4% 501 161 284 56 1.1%

92 Public Administration 7,484 $56,245 0.40 -96 -0.1% 8,053 3,068 4,164 822 1.0%

42 Wholesale Trade 31,205 $70,348 2.05 -249 -0.1% 36,687 12,843 21,237 2,607 0.8%

52 Finance and Insurance 15,012 $75,810 0.95 -715 -0.5% 17,198 5,750 9,315 2,133 1.3%

51 Information 8,170 $88,711 1.04 -1,832 -2.0% 9,052 3,012 5,274 766 0.9%

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Jobs Posting Data

19,231

15,164

10,427

5,699

4,572

3,313

1,590

790

412

205

51

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Norcross, GA

Duluth, GA

Lawrenceville, GA

Suwanee, GA

Buford, GA

Snellville, GA

Lilburn, GA

Dacula, GA

North Metro, GA

Grayson, GA

Alpharetta, GA

The jobs are in the following locations2,616

2,341

2,073

1,899

1,403

1,330

1,304

1,176

1,141

850

809

794

737

642

626

626

593

573

531

528

499

449

440

438

436

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing,…

Retail Salespersons

Customer Service Representatives

Software Developers, Applications

Registered Nurses

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Managers, All Other

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Computer User Support Specialists

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal,…

Accountants

Human Resources Specialists

Sales Managers

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers,…

General and Operations Managers

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative…

Computer Systems Engineers/Architects

Automotive Specialty Technicians

Medical and Health Services Managers

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping…

Food Service Managers

Production Workers, All Other

The jobs are categorized into the following occupations

Sou

rce:

Bu

rnin

g G

lass

/Lab

or

Insi

ght

Oct

ob

er 2

01

9

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Metro Atlanta Employment by Sector

-100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities

Mining

Utilities

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Information

Government

Transportation and Warehousing

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Finance and Insurance

Construction

Other Services, except Public Administration

Accommodation and Food Services

Educational services; private

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Administrative and Waste Management Services

Retail Trade

2015 - 2050 Change in Employment by Industry (sorted by Total Employment in 2015)

2015 Change, 2015 - 2050

As the region ages, it should come as no surprise that the healthcare sector is forecast to grow the most, surpassing the retail sector as the largest by 2050

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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Employment by County

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Employment Forecasts

Total Employment, 2015 Change: 2015-2050

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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+ Note: Does not include Dawson

Employment Forecast GwinnettNAICS Sectors

9,208

9,616

9,351

13,793

15,474

27,900

22,601

29,249

35,453

34,097

33,124

38,454

38,473

35,820

42,938

51,496

59,482

1,447

1,405

2,829

2,923

3,533

(3,720)

4,589

5,872

5,216

6,635

11,004

14,119

27,822

31,622

27,498

20,404

24,751

(10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Utilities

Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities

Mining

Federal Military

Federal Civilian

Educational services; private

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Information

Transportation and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Finance and Insurance

Other Services, except Public Administration

Accommodation and Food Services

State and Local

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Health Care and Social Assistance

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Administrative and Waste Management Services

Retail Trade

Gwinnett Employment Forecast

2,015 Change 2015-2050

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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Forecast Employment

Change, per mi²2015-2050

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT

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Express Lanes and Arterial Capacity Projects

• 140 additional miles ofexpress lane corridors

• 215 arterial capacity projectsadding almost 600 lane- milesto the network

32http://garc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=763e1a5273f740b8a1cef85ea52cc83eLink to View:

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MILES OF NEW SERVICE*

Bus Rapid Transit (Freeway)Bus Rapid Transit (Arterial)Light Rail / StreetcarCommuter Rail

67 miles96 miles30 miles22 miles

* Based on initial planning concepts; subject to change

Transit ExpansionProgram

33http://garc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=763e1a5273

f740b8a1cef85ea52cc83e

Link to View:

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Project Programming by Program Area and Sub-Area6%

22%

59%

13%

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Estimated Investments through 2050

35

Investment Program Areas Percent of Total

Subtotals

MAINTENANCE & MODERNIZATION

Road and Bridge Preservation 28.5% $49.2 Billion

Road System Optimization and Safety 12.3% $21.3 Billion

Transit Operation and Capital Management (All Systems) 18.3% $31.6 Billion

MAINTENANCE & MODERNIZATION SUBTOTAL 59.2% $102.1

Billion

EXPANSION

Managed Lanes 9.4% $16.2 Billion

Interchange and Highway Expansion 6.4% $11.1 Billion

Transit Expansion 6.3% $10.9 Billion

EXPANSION SUBTOTAL 22.1% $38.2 Billion

Investment Program Areas Percent of Total

Subtotals

DEMAND MANAGEMENT

Walking, Bicycling, and LCI 3.0% $5.2 Billion

TDM and Other Programs and Initiatives 2.6% $4.5 Billion

DEMAND MANAGEMENT SUBTOTAL 5.6% $9.7 Billion

OTHER COSTS

Administrative Costs 10.4% $18.0 Billion

Unprogrammed Funding 2.7% $4.7 Billion

OTHER COSTS SUBTOTAL 13.2%$22.7 Billion

TOTAL INVESTMENTS 100% 172.6 Billion

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Transportation Infrastructure Funding

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Estimated Revenuesthrough 2050

Revenue Source Percent of Total SubtotalsFEDERAL

FHWA Formula Funding plus Adjustments 20.2% $34.9 BillionFHWA Discretionary Funding 0.2% $0.3 BillionFTA Formula Funding plus Adjustments 6.0% $10.3 BillionFEDERAL SUBTOTAL 26.4% $45.5 Billion

STATE

Region’s Share of Excise Taxes 26.0% $44.9 BillionRegion’s Share of Lodging Fees 2.5% $4.4 BillionRegion’s Share of Heavy Vehicle Impact Fees 0.2% $0.3 BillionRegion’s Share of Electric Vehicle Registration Fees 0.03% $0.05 BillionRegion’s Share of General Fund Appropriations 0.2% $0.4 BillionSTATE SUBTOTAL 29.0% $50.0 Billion

LOCAL

SPLOST Revenues 8.3% $14.3 BillionT-SPLOST Revenues 4.8% $8.2 BillionMARTA Sales Tax Revenues 14.3% $24.6 BillionMARTA Farebox and Other Revenue 4.2% $7.2 BillionCity and County General Funds 10.4% $18.0 BillionNon-MARTA Transit Agency Revenues 1.6% $2.8 BillionLOCAL SUBTOTAL 43.5% $75.1 Billion

PRIVATE

CIDs and Other Revenue 1.20% $2.0 BillionPRIVATE SUBTOTAL 1.20% $2.0 BillionTOTAL REVENUE 100.00% 172.6 Billion

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Regionally Important Performance Measures

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Regionally Important Performance Measures

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Regionally Important Performance Measures

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Regionally Important Performance Measures

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Regionally Important Performance Measures

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Questions?’ Mike Alexander, AICP

Director,

Center for Livable Communities

Atlanta Regional Commission

[email protected]

http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.org/ http://33n.atlantaregional.com/

https://www.atlantaregionsplan.org/update/