Update On Stock Markets

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Post on 19-Jun-2015

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Update on Indian Stock Markets

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  • 1. How to become Bull among Bears ? A presentation by Rajesh Soni Investment Guru Blog http://rajeshsoni.com

2. Current Scenario

  • The Bear has taken the Bull by its horns

3.

  • Humpty Dumpty had a great fall

Sensex & Nifty down 28% since 8 thJanuary 4. The 10 largest falls of the Sensex

  • 1. Jan 21, 2008 --- - 1,408.35 points
  • 2. Mar 17, 2008 --- - 951.03 points
  • 3. Mar 3, 2008 ---- - 900.84
  • 4. Jan 22, 2008 --- - 875.41 points
  • 5. Feb 11, 2008 --- - 833.98 points
  • 6. May 18, 2006 --- - 826.38 points
  • 7. Mar 13, 2008 --- - 770.63 points
  • 8. Dec 17, 2007 --- - 769.48 points
  • 9. Oct 17, 2007 --- - 717.43 points
  • 10. Jan 18, 2007 --- - 687.82 points

5. Reasons for Fall

  • Started with FII Sell off Profit Booking
  • Negative Global clues
  • Domestic cues Ignored

6. Big Daddy is ILL

  • Sub prime Crisis
  • Unemployment on rise
  • Housing Sector Slowdown
  • US Economy in Recession phase
  • Fed Rate cut fails to reimpose confidence

7. Sub-prime Crisis

  • Liquidity issue in Banking System (foreclosures)
  • Higher default rates on loans to high risk borrowers
  • Started with Housing sector Bubble Bursts
  • Housing prices have fallen drastically
  • 1.3 million properties subject to foreclosure
  • Subprimes losses estimated at $ 300 Billion !!!

8. Is US going through recession ?

  • Higher Inflation
  • Slowdown in Industrial Production
  • Negative Job Growth
  • Housing Industry Bubble bursts
  • GDP Growth 0.8% in FY08 (estimates)

9. Trends in US Housing prices 10. Damage Control FEDs Falling Interest Rates Since 12 Months 11. The Indian Story

  • Fear of Sub prime crisis in India
  • Housing Bubble ?
  • Taming Inflation
  • Domestic Consumption Story
  • GDP growth Scenarios
  • IIP- 8.7% growth

12. Markets are Imperfect

  • Fear Factor Current levels look expensive
  • Near term sharp uptrend ruled out
  • Global cues would continue to haunt
  • Domestic cues ignored
  • Wait for Better prices

13. Getting the Bull out of Bear

  • Ignore companies with higher US exposure
  • Identify fundamentally strong companies with focus on domestic consumption
  • Dont get carried away by priceslook for value
  • Avoid Banking sector at current levels
  • Pharma & FMCG are good bets in current scenario
  • Avoid futuristic companies
  • Do staggered Buying
  • Avoid speculative positions

14. Words of Wisdom

  • "You ought to be able to explain why youre taking the job youre taking, why youre making the investment youre making, or whatever it may be. And if it cant stand applying pencil to paper, youd better think it through some more. And if you cant write an intelligent answer to those questions, dont do it."Warren Buffett

15. Words of Wisdom

  • The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means.....that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money's worth for his purchase.Ben Graham

16. Thank You !