update on the 2016 el niño and its impact on florida weather, mr
TRANSCRIPT
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Brady Smith, AICP, CFM Principal Planner
Tampa Bay
Regional Planning Council
February 8, 2016
El Niño & Expected Florida Severe Weather
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Slides courtesy of:
Dan Noah National Weather Service - Ruskin
El Niño & Expected Florida Severe Weather
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What is El Niño?
Warm Water
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El Niño vs La Niña Jet Stream Location
Jet stream over Florida
with more active weather
Jet stream north of
Florida with less active
weather
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Comparison of Winter Storm Tracks
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Violent Tornadoes in Florida
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Expected Florida River Flood Events per Year
Strong El Nino
Moderate El Nino
Weak El Nino
Neutral Conditions
Weak, Moderate, and Strong La Nina
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Jan 17, 2016 Sarasota F2 Tornado – 127 mph
2 injuries
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Jan 17, 2016 Duette F2 Tornado – 127 mph
2 fatalities, 4 injuries
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El Niño Florida Impact Awareness
Potential for historic El Niño this winter and upcoming spring, even stronger than the 1997/98 El Niño
• increased chances for strong-to-violent tornadoes and tornado outbreaks
• increased chances for episodes of heavy rain and river flooding
Given that the previous eight winters in Florida experienced storminess much below normal, the likely transition to a very active season may come as a surprise to those who are unaware
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February 2, 2007 1 a.m. – 3 a.m. Lake / Volusia Counties
21 fatalities (2 EF3 Tornadoes)
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February 22-23, 1998 11 p.m. – 3 a.m. Osceola / Orange / Seminole Counties
42 fatalities (3 F3 Tornadoes)
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Florida Societal Considerations
Time of Day
Overnight Tornadoes
• Lower perception of threat
• Decreased Awareness (asleep)
• Favored time period
Increasing Vulnerability
1995 2005 2015
• 4.7 million new residents since 1998 outbreak!
• Many unaware of Florida (winter) severe weather risks
• High percentage of mobile homes
• Much lower threshold for damage
• High winter occupancy
• Greater casualty rate
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Public Awareness and Safety
• Monitor local television and radio for severe weather situations
• Have multiple ways to receive timely
weather warnings NOAA Weather radio Wireless Emergency Alert Reverse 911 Smartphone App
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Wireless Emergency Alert
• FCC/FEMA Initiative
• Free
• Available since 2012
• Cell phones auto enrolled
• Limited to 90 characters
• All phones connected to a
tower within the warning
receive message at same
time
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Weather-Ready Nation
NWS Tampa Bay Social Media
http://weather.gov/tampabay
@NWSTampaBay
NWSTampaBay
NWSTampa
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Weather-Ready Nation
Pinellas County El Niño Web Page
@NWSTampaBay
NWSTampaBay
http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/El-Nino.htm