updates to moves heavy duty running exhaust rates: diesel ... · selection order calendar years...
TRANSCRIPT
Updates to MOVES Heavy Duty RunningExhaust Rates: Diesel, Gasoline, and Natural Gas Gurdas S. Sandhu* and Darrell Sonntag
* ORISE participant supported by an interagency agreement between EPA and DOE
MOVES Review Work Group | April 10, 2019 | Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Updates to MY 2010+ Heavy-Duty DieselRunning Exhaust Rates Gurdas S. Sandhu* and Darrell Sonntag
* ORISE participant supported by an interagency agreement between EPA and DOE
MOVES Review Work Group | April 10, 2019 | Ann Arbor, MI, USA
3
Context
• December 20161: presented initial analysis of criteria emission rates for Heavy-Duty (HD) diesel MY2010+ vehicles – Based on Heavy-Duty In-Use Testing (HDIUT) data set – Rates were developed using MOVES2014 fscale values – NOx, HC, CO, and Energy/CO2 were included. PM was not included. – New NOx rates higher due to ineffective control at low temperatures
• December 20171 : Described work on HD MY2010+ fscale values and PM rates – fscale values needed update to better distinguish operating modes – MY2010+ PM rates based on HDIUT are much below MOVES2014 rates
• This Presentation: Rates based on final fscale values and impact on inventory
1. https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-model-review-work-group
4
Heavy-Duty In-use Testing (HDIUT)*
• Each year, US EPA selects a few engine families with production volume ≥1,500 units
• Engine manufacturer contacts customers to recruit vehicles operating in the real-world that have the selected engine family
– Typically, five vehicles are tested for each engine family
– Vehicles have good maintenance history and no malfunction indicators on
– Vehicle mileage within the useful life (110K, 185K, 435K miles for light-/medium-/heavy- heavy-duty, respectively)
• Engine manufacturer conducts emissions measurements and submits 1 Hz data to EPA
– Vehicles are tested “in-use” – that is, doing normal work and operated by regular driver
– Measurements made with instruments certified per 40 CFR 1065
* 40 CFR Part 86 Subpart T: Manufacturer-Run In-Use Testing Program for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines.
5
MY 2010+ HDIUT Data Overview Selection Order Calendar Years 2010 – 2016
Number of Diesel Test Vehicles QA'ed Seconds of Data (Million)
Service NOx FEL Group Total Class 0.20 0.35 0.50
LHDD MHDD HHDD URBU
49 0 15 26 23 9 93 31 35
0 10 0
64 58
159 10
Total 168 64 59 291
Service NOx FEL Group Total Class 0.20 0.35 0.50
LHDD MHDD HHDD URBU
1.17 0.67 2.96
0.46 0.89 0.25
0.30 0.17 1.02
1.47 1.30 4.88 0.25
Total 4.81 1.60 1.50 7.91
• Service Classes: Light-/Medium-/Heavy-Heavy-Duty Diesel (LHDD, MHDD, HHDD) and Urban Bus (URBU)
• Model Years: 2010 – 2015
• Fuels: Diesel and Natural Gas
• Manufacturers: Cummins, Detroit Diesel, Ford, FPT, GM, Hino, Isuzu, Iveco, Navistar, Paccar, Volvo
• Engine Families: 45 Diesel, 2 Natural Gas
FEL – Family Emission Limit (the emission limit, in g/bhp-hr, of all engines in an engine family)
6
Contents
• Updates to fixed mass factor (fscale)
• g/mile rates
• Impact on inventory
7
MY 2010+ Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Fixed Mass Factor (𝒇𝒇𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔𝒔)
8
Background: How 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 is used
Scaled Tractive Power (STP) estimates the tractive power exerted by a vehicle and is scaled (or normalized) by 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠
𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 =𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 + 𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐴2 + 𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴3 + 𝑀𝑀 � 𝑎𝑎 + 𝑔𝑔 � 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 � 𝐴𝐴
𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 =
𝜂𝜂𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑠𝑠 𝜔𝜔𝑠𝑠𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑒𝜏𝜏𝑠𝑠𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑒 − 𝑆𝑆𝑠𝑠𝑙𝑙𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠,𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠
𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠
Used when analyzing HDIUT data Used during MOVES run
In MOVES2014, • RegClass 40 use 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 = 2.06, which is equal to the mass of source
type 32 (light commercial truck) in metric tons
• RegClass 41-48 use 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 = 17.1, which is roughly equivalent to the average running weight in metric tons of all heavy-duty vehicles
RegClass 40: Class 2b trucks with 2 axles and 4 tires (8,500 lbs <GVWR< 14,000 lbs) RegClass 41: Class 2b trucks with at least 6 tires and Class 3 trucks (8,500 lbs <GVWR< 14,000 lbs) RegClass 42, 46, 47, 48: Heavier heavy-duty weight class vehicles (GVWR > 14,000 lbs)
9
Effect of 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠: Vehicle Count
OpMode
Number of Vehicles (n) LHDD (n = 64) MHDD (n = 58) HHDD (n = 159)
fscale fscale fscale 4.00 5.00 6.00
fscale 4.00
fscale 5.00
fscale 6.00
fscale 7.00
fscale 9.00
fscale fscale 10.0 11.0
fscale 12.0
0 64 64 64 64 64 64
58 58 58 58 159 159
159 159 159 159
159 1591 58 58 58 58
11 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
58 58 58 58 159 159 159 159 159 159
159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159
159 159 159 159 159 159
12 58 58 58 58 13 58 58 58 58 14 58 58 58 58 15 58 58 58 58 16 58 58 58 58 21 64 64 64
64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 44 64 42 23 43 22 13
58 58 58 58 159 159 159 159 159 159 154 153 114
159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 154 154 142 122
59 10
159 159 159 159 159 159 153
75 1
22 58 58 58 58 23 58 58 58 58 24 58 58 58 58 25 58 58 58 58 27 58 58 58 58 28 58 58 58 58 29 58 58 46 25 30 58 39 25 14 33 64 64 64
64 64 64 64 64 63 63 62 44 62 41 23 41 23 14
58 58 58 58 159 159 159 154 152 114
159 159 159 159 159 159 154 153 138 122
65 11
159 159 159 152
83 1
35 58 58 58 58 37 58 58 58 58 38 58 58 57 49 39 58 53 43 25 40 53 39 26 14
Analyzed the entire HDIUT dataset with various fscale values to observe their effect on vehicle count, time, and emission rates for criteria pollutants across the OpModes.
Final fscale selected such that the highest power OpModes can be populated without gap-filling but at the same time they are not over-populated by data at the cost of lower power OpModes.
10
Effect of 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠: Time Distribution
OpMode
Number of seconds = OpMode time fraction * 1 million seconds LHDD MHDD HHDD
fscale 4.00
fscale 5.00
fscale 6.00
fscale 4.00
fscale 5.00
fscale 6.00
fscale 7.00
fscale fscale fscale 9.00 10.0 11.0
fscale 12.0
0 41131 358957
41131 358957
41131 358957
36170 36170 36170 36170 18010 18010 18010 297662 297662 297662
18010 2976621 349622 349622 349622 349622
11 46235 24896 14877 11394
8784 20778
46235 29023 16658 12304
8680 14065
46235 32878 18290 12431
8092 9039
32693 32693 32693 32693 37453 37453 37453 24580 25976 27238
9472 9547 9576 5545 5557 5579 3938 3840 3762
10041 8657 7422
37453 28427
9576 5533 3704 6337
12 20755 23825 26630 29346 13 11234 12492 13612 14397 14 8252 9101 9517 9898 15 6688 7014 7142 7000 16 28357 22855 18385 14645 21 45157
16366 24704 25290 21400 28819 15281
5808 3903
45157 22038 31884 28989 21274 25061
8422 2900 1002
45157 28166 38195 30288 19931 18770
5020 1161
40
44291 44291 44291 44291 32325 32325 32325 12785 14388 15951 14276 15457 16513 11401 11865 12272
8967 9058 9085 12410 11927 11767
8660 9619 10875 8905 9822 6562 5861 1127 239
32325 17580 17395 12453
9044 12026 12433
2329 4
22 10132 14200 18827 23955 23 19195 25479 31609 37379 24 21109 27513 32401 34297 25 22136 24498 22647 20428 27 32912 28713 25621 22502 28 18677 15863 13842 10424 29 12105 10075 5243 3550 30 17304 7229 3379 1034 33 42467
75707 86600 52178 21416
7852
55797 110862
79892 31818
6167 1685
73408 131366
67271 12100
1940 135
37996 45307 54057 64727 114214 126216 139731 139109 160667 176144 115050 102440 91446
55279 52010 50633 37885 33033 19207 16174 3344 550
154101 186131
83420 47483
6576 0
35 40077 63649 87949 107234 37 63932 76693 81453 80818 38 56697 58308 51520 44843 39 45255 39067 25466 8307 40 64411 25344 7923 2440
Analyzed the entire HDIUT dataset with various fscale values to observe their effect on vehicle count, time, and emission rates for criteria pollutants across the OpModes.
Final fscale selected such that the highest power OpModes can be populated without gap-filling but at the same time they are not over-populated by data at the cost of lower power OpModes.
11
Final 𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 for Heavy-Duty MY 2010+
Light Heavy-Duty (LHD)
regClass 41, 42
Medium Heavy-Duty (MHD)
regClass 46
Heavy Heavy-Duty (HHD)
regClass 47, 48 5 7 10
- Base OpMode based emission rates between regClasses with different fscale should not be compared
- regClass 40 and 41 have been merged and are named regClass 41 - Gliders (regClass 49) are modeled with fscale 17.1 because they borrow rates from MY 2000
vehicles, which are not covered by the fscale updates discussed here.
12
MOVES-generated g/mile Rates
- Based on a “typical” MOVES national scale run - Emission rates and activity are based on new fscale values for MY 2010+
13
Guide to g/mile plots for CY2035 20
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
18
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD 20
19
8.00 20
2020
21
7.00 20
22
6.00 20
23
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Age Group
MHD (regC 46)
T&M multiplicative adjustment factor by age
0 – 3
4 – 5
6 – 7
0.083
0.833
1
Age 30 <<< Older Vehicles Age 0
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Age 0
2034
2035
2005
2006
Age 30
MY
g/m
i
14 g/
mi
g/m
i
3.00
2.00
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
2.50
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates
4.50 LHD (8.5K-14K)
8.00
4.00 7.00
3.50 6.00 3.00
5.00
3.00 1.50
2.00 1.00
0.50 1.00
0.00 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 7.00 12.00
6.00 10.00
5.00 8.00
4.00
4.00 2.00
2.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 20
06
2006
20
05
2005
4.00
6.00 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
NOx Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
15 g/
mi
g/m
i
0.02
0.02
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 0.05 0.05
0.04 0.04
0.03 0.03
0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 0.05 0.05
0.04 0.04
0.03 0.03
0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00 20
06
2005
0.02
2006
20
05
0.02 g/m
i g/
mi
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
PM2.5 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
800
900
800
900
16 g/
mi
g/m
i
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates
1400 LHD (8.5K-14K)
1600
1300 1500 1200
1400 1100
1300 1000
700 1000
600 900 500
400 800
2006
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
1400 LHD (14K-19.5K)
2200
1300 2000 1200
1100 1800 1000
1400 700
600 1200 500
400 1000 20
06
2005
20
05
1200
1100
1600 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
CO2 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
17 g/
mi
g/m
i
1.50
2.00
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 4.00 3.50
3.50 3.00
3.00 2.50 2.50
2.00
1.50 1.00 1.00
0.50 0.50
0.00 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 3.50 4.00
3.00 3.50
3.00 2.50 2.50
2.00
1.50 1.00 1.00
0.50 0.50
0.00 0.00 20
06
2005
1.50
2006
20
05
2.00 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
CO Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
18 g/
mi
g/m
i
0.40
0.50
0.40
0.50
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates
1.00 LHD (8.5K-14K)
0.90
0.90 0.80 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.60 0.60
0.30 0.30 0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
0.00 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
0.90 LHD (14K-19.5K)
1.00
0.80 0.90
0.80 0.70 0.70 0.60 0.60
0.30 0.30 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.10
0.00 0.00 20
06
0.40
2006
20
05
2005
0.50
0.40 g/m
i g/
mi
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
THC Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
0.50
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
19
Preliminary Emissions Impact
# Geographic Area Description
1 National Diesel Running Exhaust (All Diesel Vehicles) 2 National Diesel Onroad (All Diesel Vehicles and Processes) 3 National Total Onroad (All Fuels, Vehicles, and Processes)
- The estimated impacts are for this specific emissions rate update only - Based on a “typical” MOVES national scale run
20
Preliminary Emission Impacts - NOx
0.0 0.3 5
17
36 40
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns NOx
Diesel Running Exhaust Diesel Onroad Total Onroad
2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
21
Preliminary Emission Impacts - PM2.5
Diesel Running Exhaust Diesel Onroad Total Onroad
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns
0
-10
-20
0.0 -0.1 -2PM2.5
-8
-14 -15 -16
-30
-40
-50
-60 2009 2010 2017 2025
Calendar Year 2035 2040 2060
22
Preliminary Emission Impacts - CO2
Diesel Running Exhaust Diesel Onroad Total Onroad
0.0 0.03
-0.1 -0.1
0.1 0.1
0.2
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns CO2
2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
23
Preliminary Emission Impacts - CO %
Cha
nge
in E
miss
ions
Diesel Running Exhaust Diesel Onroad Total Onroad 450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4 8 10 11
CO
2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
24
Preliminary Emission Impacts - THC %
Cha
nge
in E
miss
ions
Diesel Running Exhaust Diesel Onroad Total Onroad 10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50 2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
THC 0.0 0.03
-0.2 -1.0 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6
Calendar Year
Updates to MY 2010+ Heavy-DutyGasoline Running Exhaust Rates Gurdas S. Sandhu* and Darrell Sonntag
* ORISE participant supported by an interagency agreement between EPA and DOE
MOVES Review Work Group | April 10, 2019 | Ann Arbor, MI, USA
26
Context
• Current MY2010+ rates based on old and limited data: – Four MHD gasoline trucks from CRC E-55 program
– EPA’s Mobile Source Observation Database (MSOD), mostly LHD and chassis tests
– Age effects are based on actual data only for the two age groups shown here. No additional T&M assumptions applied.
– No distinction of rates by regClass
Model year Regulatory Age group group class 0-5 6-9
1960-1989MHD 2
LHD2b3 10
1990-1997MHD 1
LHD2b3 33 19
1998-2002MHD 1
LHD2b3 1
27
Background – New Gasoline Test Data
• Three medium heavy-duty gasoline vehicles were tested by EPA. Rates shown here are from on-road PEMS testing overvarious drive cycles, unladen & laden weights, and ACon/off.
• Engines in this dataset: 1. MY 2016/2017 Ford E450, GFMXE06.8BWZ (6.8 L)
2. MY 2015 Isuzu NPR, FGMXE06.0584 (6.0 L), this is a GM engine
3. MY 2017 Ram 3500, HCRXD06.45W0 (6.4 L), this is a Fiat Chryslerengine
• Raw data size: ~489K seconds. After QA: ~412K (~16% removed). After correction for cold-start: ~389K seconds (~5.5% removed).
28
Background – How the Data was Analyzed
• Test data was analyzed with: – road-load (ABC) coefficients for sourceType 52 (single unit short-
haul truck), – vehicle mass as measured – fscale of 5, 7, and 10 to arrive at rates for LHD, MHD, and HHD,
respectively.
• NOx, CO, CO2, and THC rates are from the on-road testing • PM was not measured during on-road testing. PM rates are
based on HD diesel LHD and HHD rates from the HDIUT data. Note that Gasoline MHD based on Diesel HHD.
• Age effects for gases same as gasoline in MOVES2014,while for PM it is same as diesel in MOVES2014.
• Final rates for gases include projected sales weighting
29
MOVES-generated g/mile Rates
- Based on a “typical” MOVES national scale run - Emission rates and activity are based on new fscale values for MY 2010+
1.0
1.0
30 g/
mi
g/m
i
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5
0.5 0.5
0.0 0.0 20
06
2005
1.0
2006
20
05
1.0 g/m
i g/
mi
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
NOx Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
31 g/
mi
g/m
i
0.04
0.02
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 0.04 0.04
0.03 0.03
0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 0.08 0.06
0.07 0.05
0.06 0.04
0.05
0.03 0.02
0.02 0.01
0.01
0.00 0.00 20
06
2005
0.02
2006
20
05
0.03 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
PM2.5 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
- In MOVES2014, age effects for PM were multi-step based on each of the age groups, while gases had age effect for only ages 0-5 and 6+. The new PM rates use diesel age effects from MOVES2014.
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
800
400
500
32 g/
mi
g/m
i
1000
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 1000 2000
900 1800
800 1600
700 1400
600 1200
300 600
200 400
100 200
0 0
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 2000 2000
1800 1800
1600 1600
1400 1400
1200 1200
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0 20
06
2006
20
05
2005
1000
800
1000
800 g/m
i g/
mi
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
CO2 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
20
10
33 g/
mi
g/m
i
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 20 40
35
15 30
25
5 10
5
0 0
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 40 60
35 50
30 40
25
15 20
10 10
5
0 0 20
06
2005
20
15
2006
20
05
30 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
CO Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
0.20
0.2
34 g/
mi
g/m
i
0.30
2005
20
05
2006
20
06
2007
20
07
2008
20
08
2009
20
09
MOVES2014 NewRates MHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (8.5K-14K) 0.4 0.60
0.50 0.3
0.40
0.1 0.10
0.0 0.00
MY MY
MOVES2014 NewRates HHD MOVES2014 NewRates LHD (14K-19.5K) 0.60 0.80
0.70 0.50
0.60 0.40
0.50
0.20 0.10
0.10
0.00 0.00 20
06
2006
20
05
2005
0.30
0.20
0.40
0.30 g/
mi
g/m
i
2035
20
35
2034
20
34
2033
20
33
2031
20
31
2032
20
32
2030
20
30
2029
20
29
2028
20
28
2027
20
27
2010
20
10
THC Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
MY MY
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
2017
20
18
2019
20
20
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2025
20
26
2026
20
27
2027
20
28
2028
20
29
2029
20
30
2030
20
31
2031
20
32
2032
20
33
2033
20
34
2034
20
35
2035
35
Preliminary Emissions Impact
# Geographic Area Description
1 National Gasoline Running Exhaust (All Gasoline Vehicles) 2 National Gasoline Onroad (All Gasoline Vehicles and Processes) 3 National Total Onroad (All Fuels, Vehicles, and Processes)
- The estimated impacts are for this specific emissions rate update only - Based on a “typical” MOVES national scale run
36
Preliminary Emission Impacts - NOx
Gasoline Running Exhaust Gasoline Onroad Total Onroad
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns
0
-5
-10
-15
0.0 -0.01 -0.2 -0.8 -1.36 -1.45 -1.44 NOx
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40 2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
37
Preliminary Emission Impacts - PM2.5
Gasoline Running Exhaust Gasoline Onroad Total Onroad
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns
0
-1
-2
0.0 -0.001 -0.05 -0.4
-1.1 -1.3 -1.4
PM2.5
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8 2009 2010 2017 2025
Calendar Year 2035 2040 2060
38
Preliminary Emission Impacts - CO2%
Cha
nge
in E
miss
ions
Gasoline Running Exhaust Gasoline Onroad Total Onroad 2.5
CO2 2.0
1.5 1.14 1.08 1.03
1.0
0.5 0.5
0.04 0.0 0.0
0.8
2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
39
Preliminary Emission Impacts - CO
0.0
-0.01 -0.1
0.3
2 3
4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
% C
hang
e in
Em
issio
ns CO
Gasoline Running Exhaust Gasoline Onroad Total Onroad
2009 2010 2017 2025 2035 2040 2060
Calendar Year
40
Preliminary Emission Impacts - THC %
Cha
nge
in E
miss
ions
6
5 THC
Gasoline Running Exhaust Gasoline Onroad Total Onroad
4
3
2
1
0 0.0
2009
0.005
2010
0.1
2017
0.3
2025
Calendar Year
0.5
2035
0.6
2040
0.7
2060
Updates to MY 2010+ Heavy-DutyNatural Gas Running Exhaust Rates Gurdas S. Sandhu* and Darrell Sonntag
* ORISE participant supported by an interagency agreement between EPA and DOE
MOVES Review Work Group | April 10, 2019 | Ann Arbor, MI, USA
42
Context
• In MOVES2014, the emission rates for MY2010+ CNG bus (regClass 48, sourceType 42) based on – MY 1997-2004 MHD gasoline vehicles adjusted by ratios based on
chassis dynamometer measurements of CNG buses and certificationdata.
• June 20171: Presented updates to modeling of CNG vehicles – Allowed modeling of CNG for all heavy-duty source types (41 through 62).
Consistent with MOVES2014, transit bus (sourceTypeID 42) is mapped tourban bus (regClassID 48). However, all other heavy-duty source types aremapped to the heavy heavy-duty regulatory class (regClassID 47).
– New model year groups, where certification data based adjustment ratio isapplied, are 2007-2009 and 2010-2017. MOVES2014 only had the MY 2007-2012 group.
• This Presentation: MY 2010+ rates based on HDIUT data
1. https://www.epa.gov/moves/moves-model-review-work-group
43
Background
• Data – Compressed natural gas (CNG) data from HDIUT
– Total 11 vehicles from 2 engine families - MYs 2011 and 2014, NOx FEL 0.2 g/bhp-hr
– Seconds of data before and after QA: approx. 336K vs 310K (~7% removed in QA)
• Analysis – Results are shown for only HHD (regClass 47). Base emission rates
for Urban Bus (regClass 48) are same as HHD, though the g/milerates can be different due to activity. The comparison of “NewRates” vs MOVES2014 for HHD are similar to Urban Bus.
– Age effects same as MOVES2014
44
MOVES-generated g/mile Rates
- Based on a “typical” MOVES national scale run - Emission rates and activity are based on new fscale values for MY 2010+
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
g/m
i NOx Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0 HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
MY
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
g/m
i PM2.5 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
46
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012 HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
MY
- In MOVES2014, age effects for PM were multi-step based on each of the age groups. The new PM rates use a simplified scheme with steps for ages 0-5 and 6+
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
g/m
i
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
CO2 Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035) 47
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
MY
HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
g/m
i CO Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035)
48
0
10
20
30
40
50 HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
MY
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
g/m
i
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2021
20
22
2023
20
24
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2031
20
32
2033
20
34
THC Running Exhaust Rates (CY2035) 49
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
MY
HHD MOVES2014 NewRates
APPENDIX
51 Sc
aled
Tra
ctiv
e Po
wer
, skW
MOVES Operating Modes (OpMode)
36
30
24
18
12
6
0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 40
Speed: [1–25) mph Speed: [25–50) mph Speed ≥ 50 mph
Idlin
g De
cele
ratin
g
Coas
ting,
STP
< 0
Coas
ting,
STP
< 0
Pulli
ng h
eavy
load
on
posit
ive
grad
e
Urb
an d
rivin
g w
ith m
ediu
m lo
ad
High
way
cru
ising
, no
grad
e
MOVES Operating Mode
52
HD Gasoline: Removing the Effect of Cold Start Criteria Selection
Tim
e (s
econ
ds)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Catalyst Bank1 reaches 790 °F (412 °C) Engine Coolant reaches 180 °F (82 °C)
0 50 100 150 200 250
Test Number (Three HDGVs tested over a range of cycles and soak times)
The on-road MHD gasoline test program included various soak periods, from no soak to overnight soak. Since the gasoline rates update is for hot-running exhaust emissions, an effort was made to remove the seconds of data associated with elevated emissions due to the soak. Two candidate criteria were tested - catalyst temperature and engine coolant temperature - to estimate time to reach “hot-running” status . After comparison, catalyst temperaturewas selected as a better estimator and used to removed the data before catalyst reaches 790 °F (412 °C). Based on the catalyst temperature criteria, ~5.5% or 22,500 seconds (out of 411,600 total) were removed.
53
HD Gasoline: Removing the Effect of Cold Start Results
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
NOx (
g) re
mov
ed
Soak Time (mins)
Soak Time (min)
# of Tests
Avg. Time (sec)1
Avg. Grams of Pollutant Removed
NOx CO2 CO HC 0 109 78 0.2 356 3 0.4 3 6 42 0.02 213 1 0.03
18 6 63 0.1 265 3 0.3 30 6 91 0.8 427 9 0.8 45 8 114 1.9 493 14 1.6 75 5 122 1.8 470 16 1.8
105 7 102 2.3 463 19 1.9 180 4 107 3.0 531 22 2.7 240 2 94 1.1 424 18 1.9 360 1 1 0.00 0 0 0.00 720 48 125 2.0 662 25 3.3
1 Average time for catalyst to reach 412 °C