updating and improvement of the high- resolution … · josé m. baldasano1,2, marc guevara1,...

www.bsc.es

José M. Baldasano1,2, Marc Guevara1, Gustavo Arévalo1, Santiago Gassó1,2, Francesc Martínez1, Gina Ferrer1, Albert Soret1

UPDATING AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION (1km x 1km, 1h) EMISSION

MODEL FOR SPAIN: HERMES V 2.0

1Barcelona Supercomputing Center-Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS)2Environmental Modeling Laboratory, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC)

Barcelona, Spain.

2012 ACCENT-IGAC-GEIA ConferenceEmissions to Address Science and Policy Emission Needs

June 11-13, 2012 Toulouse, France

2

HERMES v 2.0 emission inventory modelThe High-Elective Resolution Modeling Emissions System v 2.0(HERMES v 2.0) estimates the atmospheric emissions with a spatialresolution up to 1 km2 and a temporal resolution of 1 h and generatesresults according to the EEA’s Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution(SNAP), taking 2009 as the reference period. The model updates andimproves the previous HERMES 2004 model (Baldasano et al., 2008)

HERMES v 2.0

HERMES-BOUPEmission inventory specifically

developed for Spain, using mainly bottom‐up approaches

HERMES-DISSNAP sector‐dependent

spatial/temporal disaggregation and speciation of the original annual gridded CEIP‐EMEP emission

Hourly speciatedemissions

3

HERMES v 2.0 conceptual framework AQModelling

HERMES-BOUP system

Inpu

t E

mis

sion

data

forA

QMMEGAN v 2.04

Local SpatialSurrogates Files

Local Temporal profiles

Speciationprofiles

Meshbase

Source-specificspatial database

Source-specifictemporal database

Source-specificspeciatondatabase

Country, comunity & province codes, landuses, cell properties

Point source

inventory

SNAP01/03/04/09 SNAP11SNAP05/06/10 SNAP07

Linear sourceinventory

COPERT-IV

Downscalingof Nationalemissions

SNAP02/08

Areasource

inventory

Others

4

Modules

- Meteorology: WRF-ARWv3.0.1.1, ibc: GFS (NCEP)38 sigma levels; top of the atmosphere 50 hPa

- Emissions:HERMES v 2.0(Europe & Spain)

- Chemistry: CMAQ-CTM v4.5, CBIV, Cloud chem. (aqu.), Aerosol module (AERO4), bc: LMDz-INCA model,15sigma levels

- Mineral dust from Africa:BSC-DREAM8b

-Evaluation: NRT-ground level observations, satellite, ozone soundes

CALIOPE Air Quality Forecasting System for SPAINwww.bsc.es/caliope

5

Main improvements of HERMES v 2.0

Reference period for activity data updated to 2009

Introduction of emissions from biomass combustion in domestic sector

Introduction of the industrial sectors of iron and steel and non-ferrousmetallurgy, besides cement, lime, glass, pulp&paper, fine ceramics and bricks&tiles

Development of a downscaling methodology for the inclusion of SNAP05

Updating to the methodology for on road emissions COPERT IV

Introduction of the emissions from agricultural machinery, besides air and maritime traffic emissions

Introduction of MEGAN v 2.04 model for estimating biogenic emissions

Introduction of selective chemical speciation Carbon Bond 05 (CB05), adding BENZENE and HONO as output species

6

SNAP01, 03, 04 & 09 Point sourcesConsidered over 1500 point sources

Activity data, geographical location and stack height by facility

Emission Factors based on measurements, EMEP/CORINAIR 07, EMEP/EEA 09 & TNO-CEPMEIP 1995

Temporal profiles obtained from national statistics

7

SNAP01, 03, 04 & 09 Point sources

CCAA Number offocus

Emissions(t/year)

AND 205 49382ARA 68 25896AST 52 24855CAN 22 3251CAT 223 38843CEU 9 985CLM 110 15225CYL 86 29165EXT 11 1680GAL 91 20517IBA 56 20820ICA 106 43106MAD 37 5470MEL 19 2996MUR 32 6294NAV 33 5879PAV 112 19599RIO 15 571VAL 360 15560

TOTAL 1647 330093

Annual emissions - NOxC.T Andorra-Teruel

(power station)10.003 t/year

0,7%

45,4%

9,3%

11,1%

21,7%

0,6%2,6%

1,3%0,4%4,5%

1,6%0,5%

0,4%

Coke OvenPower StationRefineryCementCogenerationFine CeramicsGlassInorganic Chemistry: Sulfuric AcidLimeNon‐ferrous MetallurgyPulp and PaperSiderurgyTyles and BricksIncinerator

8


CCAA Number offocus

Emissions(t/year)


TOTAL 1647 243207

Annual emissions - SOxC.T. Escucha

(power station)17.861 t SOx / year

0,5%

43,7%

32,6%

3,6%3,3%

2,3% 1,2%3,9%

3,3%

3,0%1,4%

1,1% 0,0%Coke OvenPower StationRefineryCementCogenerationFine CeramicsGlassInorganic Chemistry: Sulfuric AcidLimeNon‐ferrous MetallurgyPulp and PaperSiderurgyTyles and BricksIncinerator

9


CCAA Number offocus

Emissions(t/year)


TOTAL 1647 28010

Annual emissions - PSTAlcoa Inespal S.A.

(aluminium production)862 t PST / year

0,4% 18,9%

10,5%

3,2%

7,2%

5,5%6,9%

3,3%8,6%

28,3%

5,3%

1,8%0,1% Coke Oven

Power StationRefineryCementCogenerationFine CeramicsGlassInorganic Chemistry: Sulfuric AcidLimeNon‐ferrous MetallurgyPulp and PaperSiderurgyTyles and BricksIncinerator

10

SNAP02 – Non-industrial combustionACTIVITY DATA EMISSION FACTORS SPATIAL & TEMPORAL DISAGGREG.

EMEP-

CORINAIR 07 /

EMEP-EEA 09

Residential Population map from Tele

Atlas ® Multinet ® 2011

Commercial Industrial/urban land uses

from CORINE Land Cover 2006 v 15

Annual statistics of fuel

consumptions by type (natural gas,

gasoil C, GLP, fuel oil, coal and

biomass), and sector (residential

and institutional/commercial) at

NUTS level 3Monthly/weekly/hourly profiles by type of

fuel obtained from national statistics

2,9%

3,4%

3,9%

4,4%

4,9%

5,4%

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10

H11

H12

H13

H14

H15

H16

H17

H18

H19

H20

H21

H22

H23

H24

Hourly profiles for natural gas conssumption in weekdays

Enero Febrero Marzo AbrilMayo Junio Julio AgostoSeptiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre

11

SNAP05, 06, 10 Downscaling methodologies

SNAP05 Extraction, port & refinery areas /

location of petrol stations / pipelines

SNAP10 Agricultural CORINE

Land Cover 2006 v15 land uses

Annual emissions reported by

the Spanish National

Emission Inventory (INESP)

at NUTS 2

Specific spatial surrogates /

temporal & speciation profiles

for each SNAP activity

Hourly speciated horizontal

and vertical disaggregated

emissions

SNAP06 Location of industries related

to SNAP06 sector / population map

SNAP05-NMVOC [t/year] SNAP06-NMVOC [t/year] SNAP10-NH3 [t/year]

SNAP07 – On-road traffic

12

Airports EMEP‐EEA 09 / ICAO & FOCA engine emission databasePorts Cooper & Gustafsoon 04Agric. machinery EMEP‐EEA 09

Airports EMEP‐EEA 09 / ICAO & FOCA engine emission databasePorts Cooper & Gustafsoon 04Agric. machinery EMEP‐EEA 09

Traffic flow and average speed data per road stretch obtained from the Spanish measuring equipment network (over 24.000 observation points and 111.000 km of road network considered)Vehicular composition at NUTS level 3 (including specific compositions for the urban areas of Barcelona and Madrid)

• Type of stretch (urban, motorway, road,…)

• IMD (Flow traffic data number of vehicles per day)

• Speed data

• Stretch lenght

• % general vehicle type (light vehicle, heavyduty vehicle, motorcycle)

• Fleet composition Over 60 profiles (per province, type of road…)

• Temporal profile (hourly, weekly, monthly) Over 27.000 profiles

Methodologies for the emission estimation

• COPERT IV Exhaust emissions (hot&cold), evaporative emissions,

tyre/break/road wear

• Pay et al, 2010 Paved road dust resuspension emissions

Specific information associate to each road stretch

13

SNAP07 – On-road trafficTraffic flow and speed data needed for emission estimation obtained by combining the Road Map from Tele Atlas ® Multinet ® 2011 with traffic information from over 24.000observation stations

Considered over 111.000 km of road network

Traffic observation points

Road map Tele Atlas ® Multinet ® 2011

14

SNAP07 – On-road trafficSpecial characterization of the largest Spanish cities: Barcelona, Madrid,

Valencia, Zaragoza, Bilbao, Sevilla, Malaga

2575 Observation Stations

Specific methodology for large cities without available traffic information

1115 Observation Stations 3198 Observation Stations

y = 0,0012x1,6724R² = 0,9753

0,E+00

1,E+07

2,E+07

3,E+07

4,E+07

0,0E+00 2,0E+05 4,0E+05 6,0E+05 8,0E+05 1,0E+06 1,2E+06 1,4E+06 1,6E+06 1,8E+06 2,0E+06

Dailymileagedriven

[km/day]

Registered vehicles

Registered vehicles ‐ Daily mileage driven per city

Cities with more than25.000 registered vehicles

15

SNAP07 – On-road trafficMore than 27.000 traffic temporal profiles have been used (monthly, weekly

and hourly) discriminating between weekdays and holidays

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hourly profiles ‐Weekday

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hourly profiles ‐ Holiday

Hourly NOx emissions IP domain (4*4 km) february weekday

SNAP08 – Other mobile sourcesACTIVITY DATA EMISSION FACTORS SPATIAL & TEMPORAL DISAGGREG.

Airports EMEP-EEA 09 /

ICAO & FOCA engine emission

databases (74 representative

groups of aircraft considered)

Ports Cooper & Gustafsoon 04

Methodology (9 representative

groups of vessels considered)

Agric. machin. EMEP-EEA 09

Airports Monthly national/international

operations (LTO cycles < 1.000 m) by

airport and type of airplane (47 airports)

Ports Annual national/international

operations and Gross Tonnage by port and

type of ship (46 ports)

Agricultural machin. Machinery census

by type of machine at NUTS level 3

SPATIAL

Airports Airport areas and runways digitalized

Ports Port and maneuvering areas digitalized

Agric. Mach. CORINE Land Cover 06 v.15

TEMPORAL

Airports/Ports Specific monthly/weekly/hourly

temporal profiles obtained from facilities statistics

Agric. Mach. EMEP-EEA 09

01000020000300004000050000600007000080000

Num

ber o

f veh

icles

Agricultural machinery census at NUTS level 3 by type

Agricultural Tractors Harvesters Two‐wheel Tractors

Annual NOx emissions from agriculturalmachinery

16

17

SNAP08 – Other mobile sources

Port emissions distinguished between maneuvering/hotelling activities

Annual SOx emissions Barcelona’sport (1km*1km)

Hourly NOx emissions Barcelona’s airport(4km*4km) per vertical layer

Vertical distribution of the emissions from LTO cycles (<1000 m)

18

SNAP11 – Natural emissions

IP domain (4*4km) – 15feb2011 IP domain (4*4km) – 15jul2011

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1‐1

15‐1

29‐1

12‐2

26‐2

11‐3

25‐3 8‐4

22‐4 6‐5

20‐5 3‐6

17‐6 1‐7

15‐7

29‐7

12‐8

26‐8 9‐9

23‐9

7‐10

21‐10

4‐11

18‐11

2‐12

16‐12

30‐12

Daily emissions [t/day]

Daily Isoprene emissions MEGAN v 2.04 (year 2011)

Implementation of MEGAN v 2.04 in the HERMES v 2.0 code, using meteorological conditions simulated by WRF-ARW

Temporal distribution of the emissions

19

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

140001 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100

109

118

127

136

145

154

163

172

181

190

199

208

217

226

235

244

253

262

271

280

289

298

307

316

325

334

343

352

361

Daily emission

s [t/day]

Total daily emissions for Spain estimated with HERMES v 2.0 model (2011)

NOx NMVOC SOx CO NH3 TSP PM10 PM2.5

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

Weekly variations in primary pollutants

NOx NMVOC SOx CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hourly variations in primary pollutants

NOx NMVOC SOx CO NH3 PM10 PM2,5

Speciation of the emissions HERMES v 2.0 to CMAQ

20

Speciation profiles obtained from SPECIATE 4.2 Database (USEPA, 2008)

PEC19,4%

PMFINE45,5%

PNO30,2%

PSO43,6%

POA31,3%

PM2,5

PEC

PMFINE

PNO3

PSO4

POA

NO88,6%

NO211,2%

HONO0,2%

NOx

NO

NO2

HONO

ALDX0,6%

ALD21,1%

BENZENE0,4%

ETH3,6% ETHA

3,2%ETOH1,1%

FORM1,8%IOLE

0,2%

ISOP7,9%

MEOH10,7%

OLE3,7%

PAR51,7%

TERP1,9%

TOL1,2%

UNR9,8%

XYL0,9%

NMVOC (CB05)

ALDX ALD2 BENZENE ETH ETHA ETOHFORM IOLE ISOP MEOH OLE PARTERP TOL UNR XYL

21

Rating of the database usedData Attribute Rating System (DARS) method proposed by USEPA (1996)Activity ‐ SNAP sectors Score Information sources

On‐road transport ‐ SNAP07 76,5Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09 ‐ COPERT IV, Pay et al. (2010) Activity data: Spanish Governmental Authorities (Central

Goverment, Autonomous Communities, Provincies and City Councils), Tele Atlas ® Multinet ® 2011, DGT (2009) Meteorological data: WRF simulation for the year 2009

Public power stations ‐ SNAP0101 76,0Emission factors: Spanish National Office of Emission Control for Large Combustion Facilities (OCEM‐CIEMAT) (based on

continous measurements), TNO‐CEPMEIP (1995), EMEP/CORINAIR 07, EMEP/EEA 09 Activity data: UNESA (2009), REE (2009), enviromental authorization by facility

Waste treatment ‐ SNAP09 76,0 Emission factors: AEVERSU (2009), Catalonia's Atmospheric Emission Network (XEAC, 2009), EMEP/EEA 09 Activity data: AEVERSU (2009), OILGAS Enciclopedy (2009), enviromental authorization by facility

Air traffic (LTO cycles < 1000m) ‐ SNAP0805 71,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, USEPA (2005), ICAO&FOCA Engine Emission Database Activity data: AENA (2009)Maritime activities ‐ SNAP0804 65,8 Emission factors: Cooper & Gustafsoon 2004 Activity data: Spanish Port authorities, Entec UK (2007), Corbett et al. (2003)

Cement industry ‐ SNAP030311 & SNAP040612 61,8 Emission factors: Enviromental statment by facility (based on continous measurements), EMEP/EEA 09 Activity data: OFICEMEN (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR

Cogeneration plants ‐ SNAP030103, SNAP030104 & SNAP030105 61,5 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: Spanish Industry Department ‐ Register of energy productors

(2009) , REE (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, E‐PRTR

Coke oven furnaces ‐ SNAP010406 61,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: Spanish Industry Department ‐ Coke's production stadistics (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, E‐PRTR

Processes in petroleum industries ‐ SNAP040101, SNAP040102 & SNAP040103 57,0 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: OILGAS Enciclopedy (2009), enviromental authorization by

facility, E‐PRTRNon‐ferrous metal industry ‐ SNAP030305, SNAP030306, SNAP030322 & SNAP040301 54,3 Emission factors: Enviromental statment by facility (based on continous measurements), EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07

Activity data: BAT (2005), enviromental authorization by facilitySulfuric acid industry ‐ SNAP040401 54,0 Emission factors: EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: FEIQUE (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, E‐PRTRAgricultural machinery ‐ SNAP0806 51,8 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09 Activity data: Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Census Machinery (2009)

Lime industry ‐ SNAP030312 & SNAP040614 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07, TNO‐CEPMEIP 1995 Activity data: ANCADE (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR

Bricks and tiles industry ‐ SNAP030319 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: HYSPALIT (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR

Fine ceramic materials industry ‐ SNAP030320 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: ASCER (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR, ARDAN (2009)

Paper pulp industry ‐ SNAP040602 & SNAP040603 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: ASPAPEL (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR, ARDAN (2009)

Glass industry ‐ SNAP030314 up to SNAP030318 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: ANFEVI (2009), enviromental authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTR, ARDAN (2009)

Iron and steel industry ‐ SNAP030203, SNAP030302 % SNAP040202 to SNAP040207 50,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07, TNO‐CEPMEIP (1995) Activity data: UNESID (2009), enviromental

authorization by facility, Spanish Environmental Department ‐ Plan for the assigment of GHG's 08‐12, E‐PRTRNon industrial combustion plants ‐ SNAP02 49,0 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09 Activity data: CORES (2009), Spanish Governmental Authotities

Petroleum refining plants ‐ SNAP0103 47,3 Emission factors: EMEP/EEA 09, EMEP/CORINAIR 07 Activity data: OILGAS Enciclopedy (2009), enviromental authorization byfacility, E‐PRTR, Spanish Economy Department (2003)

Validation of the results obtained

22

Comparisons on total annual emissions estimated with HERMES04 & HERMES v2.0

and reported by the Spanish National Emission Inventory (INESP 2004 & 2009)

0,0E+00

5,0E+05

1,0E+06

1,5E+06

2,0E+06

2,5E+06

3,0E+06

NOx NMVOC SOx CO NH3 PST

Annu

alEm

ission

s[t/year]

HERMES 04 INESP04 HERMES v 2.0 INESP09


23

HERMES v 2.0HERMES 2004

11-F

eb-2

011

10-A

ug-2

011

Hourly NO2 emissions [kmol/h] Annual NOxemissions [t/year]

0,0E+00 2,0E+05 4,0E+05 6,0E+05

SNAP01

SNAP02

SNAP03

SNAP04

SNAP05

SNAP06

SNAP07

SNAP08

SNAP09

SNAP10

SNAP11

INESP09 HERMES v2.0INESP04 HERMES 04


24


11-F

eb-2

011

10-A

ug-2

011

Hourly PM10 emissions [kg/h] Annual PST emissions [t/year]

0,0E+00 3,0E+04 6,0E+04 9,0E+04

SNAP01

SNAP02

SNAP03

SNAP04

SNAP05

SNAP06

SNAP07

SNAP08

SNAP09

SNAP10

SNAP11



25

0,0E+00 4,0E+05 8,0E+05 1,2E+06 1,6E+06

SNAP01

SNAP02

SNAP03

SNAP04

SNAP05

SNAP06

SNAP07

SNAP08

SNAP09

SNAP10

SNAP11



11-F

eb-2

011

10-A

ug-2

011

Hourly NMVOC emissions [kmol/h] Annual NMVOC emissions [t/year]

26

Conclusions (1/2)

This work describes the main elements and results obtained with the HERMES

v2.0 emission model, and compares them with the previous HERMES 2004

model and the Spanish National Emission Inventory (INESP).

The HERMES v2.0 results reproduce the general downward trend observed in

the INESP emissions between 04 and 09 (specially in SOx due to the

replacement of coal by natural gas in the energy sector)

The addition of different emission sources such as biomass burning and

agricultural machinery, among others, has lead to an improvement of the NOx,

CO, and PM background emissions.

The inclusion of the MEGAN v 2.04 model in HERMES v 2.0 has lead to an

increase of biogenic emissions.

27

Conclusions (2/2)

The daily annual emission distribution presents a similar pattern for NOx, PM

and CO, with weekly cycles related to the weekday and weekend road traffic

intensity. CO is also affected by the temporal variations of the MEGAN v 2.04

emissions, which represents more than 10% of the total amount.

The NMVOC increases during the spring and summer due to the temperature

and solar radiation annual cycle.

The hourly emissions of NOx, and PM2.5 shows two peaks related with the

power demand and rush hours, while NMVOC presents a curve with maximum

emissions during the midday due to the high temperature and solar radiation.

28

Future works

Implementation of the HERMES v 2.0 emission model within the CALIOPE air

quality forecasting system for Spain (www.bsc.es/caliope), replacing the actual

HERMES 2004 system.

Future applications of HERMES v 2.0 related to further modelling and policy

purpose for Spain

Inclusion of other sources such as loading/unloading operations in ports or

plaster industry, among others.

Methodological improvements such as the introduction of hourly speed data in

traffic emissions and the calculation of plume rises in point source sectors.

Updating HERMES v 2.0 activity data and methods for the year 2010.

www.bsc.es

Thank you!For further information please contact

[email protected]

29

updating and improvement of the high- resolution … · josé m. baldasano1,2, marc guevara1,...

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