upi/cvoter international election day projections vs. perceptions, 11/5

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Perception_vs_Projection@Nov_3 No State Total ECV Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney 1 Alabama 9 40 57 20% 39% 41% 7% 25% 68% 2 A laska 3 39 57 32% 32% 37% 16% 11% 74% 3 Arizona 11 44 52 11% 37% 51% 7% 13% 80% 4 Arkansas 6 40 55 9% 35% 56% 6% 15% 79% 11 Georgia 16 44 52 14% 51% 36% 5% 31% 64% 13 Idaho 4 38 58 5% 40% 55% 0% 10% 90% 15 Indiana 11 47 51 10% 53% 37% 5% 23% 72% 17 Kansas 6 41 55 14% 49% 38% 11% 22% 68% 18 Kentucky 8 41 55 2% 55% 43% 2% 23% 75% 19 Louisiana 8 40 56 8% 54% 39% 6% 32% 62% 25 Mississippi 6 42 55 13% 44% 44% 9% 22% 69% 26 Missouri 10 46 51 13% 47% 40% 10% 23% 66% 27 Montana 3 44 51 23% 31% 46% 0% 15% 85% 28 Nebraska 5 41 55 15% 46% 39% 4% 23% 73% 35 North Dakota 3 43 53 0% 40% 60% 20% 30% 50% 37 Oklahoma 7 38 60 4% 37% 60% 4% 23% 73% 41 South Carolina 9 43 53 14% 46% 40% 14% 30% 56% 42 South Dakota 3 43 54 0% 70% 30% 0% 40% 60% 43 Tennessee 11 42 55 10% 48% 42% 3% 24% 73% 44 T exas 38 43 53 9% 45% 46% 3% 23% 74% 45 Utah 6 38 57 5% 28% 67% 0% 5% 95% 49 West Virginia 5 42 54 21% 42% 38% 13% 17% 71% 51 Wyoming 3 36 60 9% 64% 27% 9% 36% 56% Regardless of the candidate or party you wish to support; which candidate do you think is going to win the US presidency? Regardless of the candidate you think eventually win the US presidency; which candidate in your opinion will WIN in YOUR OWN state? Percept ion Vs Projec t ions : Findings of UPI/C vot er Poll Sample Size 3633 LV; CATI Dates 15th October to 31st October 2012 UPI/CVOTER Vote Share Projections As On Today State And Electoral College Votes PRO-ROMNEY STATES

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Page 1: UPI/CVoter International election day projections vs. perceptions, 11/5

 

Perception_vs_Projection@Nov_3

No State Total_ECV Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney1 Alabama 9 40 57 20% 39% 41% 7% 25% 68%

2 Alaska 3 39 57 32% 32% 37% 16% 11% 74%

3 Arizona 11 44 52 11% 37% 51% 7% 13% 80%

4 Arkansas 6 40 55 9% 35% 56% 6% 15% 79%

11 Georgia 16 44 52 14% 51% 36% 5% 31% 64%

13 Idaho 4 38 58 5% 40% 55% 0% 10% 90%

15 Indiana 11 47 51 10% 53% 37% 5% 23% 72%

17 Kansas 6 41 55 14% 49% 38% 11% 22% 68%

18 Kentucky 8 41 55 2% 55% 43% 2% 23% 75%

19 Louisiana 8 40 56 8% 54% 39% 6% 32% 62%

25 Mississippi 6 42 55 13% 44% 44% 9% 22% 69%

26 Missouri 10 46 51 13% 47% 40% 10% 23% 66%

27 Montana 3 44 51 23% 31% 46% 0% 15% 85%

28 Nebraska 5 41 55 15% 46% 39% 4% 23% 73%

35 North Dakota 3 43 53 0% 40% 60% 20% 30% 50%

37 Oklahoma 7 38 60 4% 37% 60% 4% 23% 73%

41 South Carolina 9 43 53 14% 46% 40% 14% 30% 56%

42 South Dakota 3 43 54 0% 70% 30% 0% 40% 60%

43 Tennessee 11 42 55 10% 48% 42% 3% 24% 73%

44 Texas 38 43 53 9% 45% 46% 3% 23% 74%

45 Utah 6 38 57 5% 28% 67% 0% 5% 95%

49 West Virginia 5 42 54 21% 42% 38% 13% 17% 71%

51 Wyoming 3 36 60 9% 64% 27% 9% 36% 56%

Regardless of the candidate or party you wish to

support; which candidate do you think is going to

win the US presidency?

Regardless of the candidate you think eventually win

the US presidency; which candidate in your opinion

will WIN in YOUR OWN state?

Percept ion Vs Projec t ions : Findings of UPI/Cvot er Pol lSample Size 3633 LV; CATI Dates 15th October to 31st October 2012

UPI/CVOTER Vote Share

Projections As On TodayState And Electoral College Votes

PRO-ROMNEY STATES

Page 2: UPI/CVoter International election day projections vs. perceptions, 11/5

 

Perception_vs_Projection@Nov_3

Percept ion Vs Projec t ions : Findings of UPI/Cvot er Pol lSample Size 3633 LV; CATI Dates 15th October to 31st October 2012

 

No State Total_ECV Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney5 California 55 53 42 10% 61% 29% 6% 85% 10%

7 Connecticut 7 54 43 8% 64% 28% 7% 65% 28%

8 Delaware 3 54 42 44% 44% 13% 13% 81% 6%

12 Hawaii 4 58 38 15% 60% 25% 5% 85% 10%

14 Illinois 20 54 42 12% 62% 26% 5% 78% 16%

20 Maine 4 52 44 0% 57% 44% 17% 48% 35%

21 Maryland 10 54 42 15% 56% 29% 7% 79% 13%

22 Massachusetts 11 54 41 8% 63% 29% 6% 81% 13%

23 Michigan 16 52 44 7% 53% 41% 8% 58% 34%

31 New Jersey 14 52 45 14% 46% 41% 9% 72% 19%

32 New Mexico 5 52 46 17% 63% 21% 4% 83% 13%

33 New York 29 54 42 9% 60% 31% 6% 80% 14%

38 Oregon 7 51 44 15% 48% 37% 10% 67% 23%

40 Rhode Island 4 55 41 0% 80% 20% 7% 80% 13%

46 Vermont 3 58 38 8% 67% 25% 8% 67% 25%

48 Washington 12 51 44 11% 47% 42% 10% 75% 15%

PRO-OBAMA STATES

State And Electoral College VotesUPI/CVOTER Vote Share

Projections As On Today

Regardless of the candidate or party you wish to

support; which candidate do you think is going to

win the US presidency?

Regardless of the candidate you think eventually win

the US presidency; which candidate in your opinion

will WIN in YOUR OWN state?

Page 3: UPI/CVoter International election day projections vs. perceptions, 11/5

 

Perception_vs_Projection@Nov_3

Percept ion Vs Projec t ions : Findings of UPI/Cvot er Pol lSample Size 3633 LV; CATI Dates 15th October to 31st October 2012

 

No State Total_ECV Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney Can't Say Obama Romney

6 Colorado 9 50 48 14% 51% 36% 12% 54% 34%

10 Florida 29 48 51 13% 39% 48% 11% 39% 50%

16 Iowa 6 50 48 12% 49% 39% 12% 55% 33%

24 Minnesota 10 50 47 18% 58% 25% 9% 77% 14%

29 Nevada 6 51 46 2% 52% 45% 5% 57% 38%

30 New Hampshire 4 50 48 21% 36% 43% 14% 29% 57%

34 North Carolina 15 46 51 14% 42% 44% 9% 30% 60%

36 Ohio 18 48 47 9% 49% 42% 7% 48% 45%

39 Pennsylvania 20 51 47 13% 50% 37% 9% 61% 30%

47 Virginia 13 49 49 8% 46% 46% 7% 41% 52%

50 Wisconsin 10 51 45 9% 54% 37% 8% 54% 38%

Grand Total : USA 538 49% 48% 11% 50% 39% 7% 51% 42%

TOSS-UP STATES

State And Electoral College VotesUPI/CVOTER Vote Share

Projections As On Today

Regardless of the candidate or party you wish to

support; which candidate do you think is going to

win the US presidency?

Regardless of the candidate you think eventually win

the US presidency; which candidate in your opinion

will WIN in YOUR OWN state?