UPS Meteorology - AMDAR

• Forecasting Aid – WVSS Data−Fog−Winter Precipitation Types

• Diagnostic Aid/Case Studies−Document Events−Develop New Forecast Techniques

Aircraft N411UP WVSS-II installation pictures at Goodrich during “C” check in May 2004.

System Electronics Box (SEB) (Viewlooking outboard)

Air Sampler (View looking outboard)

Air Sampler (View looking inboard)

Fog Forecasting

-Moisture Increasing with Height

-Inversion/Light Winds

Fog Forecasting

3 hours later…0812z RVR 1000-2800

1254z RVR 600-1000

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05

Moisture decreasing with height

Favors shallow ground fog

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05AC#362 TYS->SDF starting at 29-Mar-2005 03:47:00 with 85 obs

descent sounding ending at 29-Mar-2005 04:25:00S F HHMM lat/lon Alt wd/ws t / td ( RH ) code0 0 0421 38.0370/-85.7060 3300 338°/020 9.0/-1.10 (48.9%) 39302 0 0421 38.0150/-85.7030 3400 338°/020 8.60 0 0422 38.0600/-85.7150 2840 340°/022 10.3/-0.20 (47.9%) 41300 0 0422 38.0820/-85.7220 2400 339°/022 11.5/0.000 (45.0%) 41302 0 0423 38.1000/-85.7270 2040 331°/022 12.2/0.200 (43.5%) 41300 0 0424 38.1150/-85.7340 1710 324°/020 13.0/0.700 (42.8%) 42300 0 0424 38.1320/-85.7370 1360 328°/018 13.8/0.800 (41.1%) 42302 0 0425 38.1640/-85.7490 700 279°/003 11.5/4.700 (62.9%) 54300 0 0425 38.1720/-85.7510 580 130°/002 11.0/5.500 (68.9%) 5730

The First Descent report at 0425z confirmed the model forecasts of a sharp decrease in moisture with height. Furthermore, there was a 3C inversion with 18 knots of wind, indicating still mixy conditions, helping to mix the drier air down to the surface.

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05• Earlier in the day rain had occurred (0.34”), followed by

clearing late in the day.

• Using the UPS Fog Forecasting method, the Crossover temperature was 8.3C, and with expected clear skies, calm winds, and a forecast low temperature of 4C, fog was of some concern.

• Soil temperatures were on the warm side (9C), and BUFKIT ETA output showed good dry advection just off the surface until about 04z, followed by decoupling and possible fog conditions by around 07z.

• Based on the model forecast of moisture decreasing with height, UPS meteorologists forecast ground fog with no operational impact at SDF where, due to runway construction, visibility below 3 miles would have caused significant delays to our Next Day Air inbounds.

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05LOU (Louisville Bowman Field) did report ¼ mile in ground fog, which was patchy across the city, especially in low-lying locations.

SDF never dropped below a sector visibility of 2 ½ miles.

SDF 0356 00000KT 7SM MIFG CLR 08/07 A2978 REMRK A02VIS W 2 1/2 SLP084 T00780072

SDF 0456 00000KT 6SM MIFG CLR 07/07 A2979 REMRK AO2 SLP087 T00720067 401170067

SDF 0556 10003KT 4SM BR CLR 05/04 A2979 REMRK AO2 SLP090 T00500044 10106 20050 51012

SDF 0656 00000KT 5SM BR CLR 06/06 A2981 REMRK AO2 SLP096 T00560056

SDF 0756 00000KT 6SM BR CLR 05/04 A2982 REMRK AO2 SLP100 T00500044

Winter Precipitation Types

SDF 15-16 Feb 2003

RAIN

RAIN

KSDF 151843Z 06015KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC013 01/M01 A3001 RMK AO2 RAB30

METAR KSDF 160156Z 05009G17KT 5SM -PL BR OVC020 M01/M04 A3009 RMK AO2 FZDZE55PLB55 SLP192 P0001 T10111039 =

FZRA, FZDZ, PL

KSDF 160556Z 04009KT 4SM -PL BR OVC018 M03/M04 A3006=

KSDF 160456Z 04010KT 6SM -PL BR OVC020 M02/M04 A3007=

ICE PELLETS

Diagnostic Aid/Case Studies

−Document EventsWhat happened?Why did it happen?

−Develop New Forecast TechniquesWere there clues in the model output?If so, develop forecast techniques to predict the

next event.

SVR Turbulence Incident• 2315z 11Nov02 Approximately 40 nm

East of Louisville.• FL 190-225 Continuous moderate,

occasional severe.• Diverted for maintenance inspection.• Water vapor aircraft with good data.• AIRMET for moderate turbulence FL

180-370 due to windshear in vicinity of upper level jet stream.

METAR KSDF 112356Z 33012KT 10SM SCT250 11/06 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP182 T01060056 10161 20106 53033 =

KLOU 112353Z 34008KT 10SM CLR 11/03 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP183 T01110033 10156 20111 53035=

Mod-SVR

Turbulence

P_alt mb t/td w_dir/w_spd Bng/Rng from gnd pt (ft) (°C) (kts) (nm)

14301 588 -13.7/-23.5 246°/031 89°/017 2301 UTC 15499 560 -16.3/-28.1 249°/032 91°/019 2302 UTC 16670 534 -19.2/-32.0 247°/035 93°/022 2302 UTC 17759 511 -21.3/-31.8 249°/043 96°/024 2303 UTC 18291 500 -21.9/-31.3 247°/050 98°/025 2303 UTC 18799 490 -22.7/-31.1 246°/057 100°/026 2303 UTC 19741 471 -24.5/-32.1 246°/074 104°/027 2303 UTC 21099 445 -25.2/-27.0 239°/079 109°/028 2303 UTC 22192 425 -26.7/-28.1 236°/090 113°/029 2303 UTC 22700 415 -26.7/-29.4 238°/116 116°/030 2304 UTC 22890 412 -27.2/-30.0 236°/118 119°/031 2304 UTC 22959 411 -27.6/-29.2 236°/116 122°/033 2304 UTC 23018 410 -27.3/-28.0 236°/115 125°/034 2305 UTC 23428 403 -29.2/-29.2 237°/116 127°/035 2305 UTC 23576 400 -29.4/-29.4 236°/115 129°/036 2305 UTC 23911 394 -30.2/-30.2 234°/112 130°/037 2306 UTC 24360 387 -30.7/-30.7 235°/113 132°/038 2306 UTC 24859 378 -30.6/-30.6 235°/123 134°/040 2306 UTC 25531 367 -31.3/-31.3 233°/124 136°/042 2307 UTC 26260 356 -33.1/-33.1 233°/124 138°/044 2307 UTC 26870 346 -34.8/-34.8 234°/123 140°/046 2308 UTC 28999 315 -39.5/-40.7 233°/123 152°/067 2311 UTC

SDF Brief Ice Pellet Event 0905Z 16 Nov 00

A brief Ice pellet event affected UPS operations between 0905-0917Z on 16Nov00. No deicing was needed as the intensity was very light and the temperatures were above freezing so that it melted.

KSDF METAR 160956Z 19010KT 10SM FEW055 SCT065 BKN085 06/01 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB05E35PLB05E17 SLP134 P0000 T00560006 = KSDF METAR 160856Z 16005KT 10SM FEW080 OVC120 04/M01 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T00441011 56014 = KSDF METAR 160756Z 16006KT 10SM BKN120 04/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP151 T00391011 =

Model Output: -RAFOUM65 KWNO 160000 OUTPUT FROM NGM 00Z NOV 16 00TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5SDF//502644 -0117 182009 4805000106000583766 -0516 152020 4904030312000727164 00712 132116 4802040118000609078 00206 122214 4708000124000845525 -0710 112415 4407010030000683317 -0116 132914 3904999836000733916 -0317 143016 3200959642000664110 -1818 172909 2700949348000623511 -2221 213113 32009493

SDF ESC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 11/16/00 0000 UTCDAY /NOV 16 /NOV 17 /NOV 18HOUR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12MX/MN 50 33 41 25TEMP 40 40 39 44 47 47 43 42 39 36 34 35 39 40 35 31 29 28 27DEWPT30 31 32 35 38 38 37 35 32 30 29 26 24 23 22 22 22 22 22CLDS SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK CL CL CL CL SCWDIR 17 19 21 23 25 25 26 27 29 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 30 31 19 WSPD 06 09 11 14 15 13 12 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 09 08 05 03 02POP06 10 47 46 9 11 7 5 1 4POP12 59 20 10 5QPF 0/ 1/ 1/1 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0TSV06 0/ 4 3/ 4 4/ 4 3/ 0 1/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 5TSV12 1/ 7 5/ 4 1/ 1 0/ 0PTYPE R R R R R R R R R S S S S S SPOZP 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0POSN 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 11 36 65 73 91 91 88 90SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/1 0/ 0/0CIG 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 7VIS 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 OBVIS N N N N N N N N N N N N N

However, a Water Vapor Descent report showed a deep layer of dry air with wetbulb temperatures below 0C.

A few hours later at 0913Z, a Water Vapor Ascent report showed that between 800-900 mb the wetbulb

temperature was still below freezing.

ILN (Wilmington, Ohio) 12Z Raob, which shows a very similar temperature and moisture structure.

Santa Ana Winds

Pressure Gradient, No WaveStrongest winds Below the Inversion

Cajon Pass

Boundary Layer winds 030-060 degrees

Jet Core West of ONT, Weak or no Santa Ana event

Jet Core East of ONT, Moderate to Strong Santa Ana

event

Mountain Wave

BUR ONT PHX

Jet

Tropopause

Tropopause

Jet Stre

am Front

Mountain Level – 10,000 Ft

Ground Level

Mountain WaveStrongest Wind in and near Stable

Layer

ONT

Santa Ana Winds G78KT