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Urban Energy Use and Carbon Emission in Jakarta: Modeling Challenges

by:Charles O.P. Marpaung

Universitas Kristen Indonesia

International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon ModelingFebruary 5-6, 2008, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

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Presentation Outline

IntroductionObjectiveOverview of JakartaEnergy Use and CO2 EmissionConclusions

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Introduction

Population in urban area would increase in the future.Economic activities would also increaseMore energy would be consumed.The contribution of CO2 emission from the urban area would increase.

Great opportunity to reduce CO2 emission in the urban area

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Objective

To examine the energy use and CO2emission in an urban area in a developing country (Jakarta-Indonesia)

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Overview of Jakarta

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Map of Indonesia

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Geographical Map

6o12' South latitude

106o48' East longitude

7 meter above the sea level

Land area: 661.52 km2

Sea area: 6,977.5 km2

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Boundaries/JABODETABEK

BEKasi

TAngerang

BOgorDEpok

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Climate

Seasons:Rainy seasonDry season

Temperature:Highest: 34.1oC (by day)Lowest: 23.5oC (by night)

Humidity:Maximum: 88.0% (by day)Minimum: 23.5% (by night)

Rainfall intensity: 174.8 mm2

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Economic Activities

Manufacturing activities: Northern and Eastern part

Business and office administration activities: Western, Center, and Southern part

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Gross Domestic Regional Product

215.95 227.92238.67 250.33

263.62278.52

295.27312.68

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

GD

RP

con

stan

t pric

e 20

00 (T

rilliu

n R

p.)

AAGR: 5.43%

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GDRP/Capita

26.0227.11

28.16 29.46 30.7732.25

33.9435.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

GD

RP

/Cap

ita (M

illio

n R

p.)

AAGR: 4.62%

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Population

Year Population Population density (per km2)

1999 8,312,200 12,565

2000 8,386,000 12,677

2001 8,396,000 12,692

2002 8,379,000 12,664

2003 8,603,776 13,004

2004 8,725,630 13,187

2005 8,864,519 13,397

2006 8,961,680 13,545

AAGRpopulation = 1.1%

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Primary Energy Supply During 1999-2001

AAGR TPES from 1999 to 2001: 155,033 to 218,197 TJ (19%)

Shares from 2000 to 2001 in: Oil 89.58% to 82.20%

Coal 0.86% to 0.95%

Natural gas 9.56% to 16.85%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1999 2000 2001

Year

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Sup

ply

(TJ)

Oil Coal Natural Gas

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Final Energy Demand During 1999-2001

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1999 2000 2001

Year

Fina

l Ene

rgy

Dem

and

(TJ)

Agriculture Commercial Industrial Residential Transport

AAGR FED from 1999 to 2001: 186,913 to 302,996 TJ (30%)

Shares from 2000 to 2001: Agriculture 0.008% to 0.005%

Commercial 0.93% to 0.68%

Industrial 30.35% to 28.28%

Residential 3.76% to 2.58%

Transport 64.96% to 64.46%

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Total CO2 emissions

25,533

29,738

37,360

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

CO

2 em

issi

on (t

hous

and

tons

)

1999 2000 2001Year

AAGR: 21.1%

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Sectoral Shares to Total CO2 Emission

Industrial from 8.0% to 11.1%

Power from 54.1% to 46.0% http://www.gcp-urcm.org/files/A20080204/Workshop/Power_Emission.pdf

Residential from 2.0% to 1.4%

Transport from 35.5% to 41.2% http://www.gcp-urcm.org/files/A20080204/Workshop/Vehicles.pdf

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1999 2000 2001

Year

CO

2em

issi

on(th

ousa

ndto

ns)

Agriculture Commercial Industrial Power Residential Transport

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Other Indicators

Unit 1999 2000 2001

Per capita energy consumption toe per capita 0.16 0.15 0.16

Energy intensity of GDRP kgoe/1995 US$ 0.18 0.19 0.24

CO2 intensity of GDRP kg/1995 US$ 1.11 1.23 1.47

Per capita CO2 emissions ton per capita 3.07 3.55 4.45

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Strategy for Urban Air Quality Improvement (UAQ-i)

1. Air pollution prevention strategy• Utilization of gas fuel for public transport and industry for at least

5% in 2009• Utilization of bio-fuel at least 2% from the domestic consumption

of oil fuel in 2009 http://www.gcp-urcm.org/files/A20080204/Workshop/Biodiesel_in_Jakarta.pdf

• Increasing the number of urban citizens that give attention to the problem of air pollutions and the improvement efforts as high as 90% in 2020 as compared to in 2007

• Well planned urban de-concentration and development• Integrated transportation system and rationalization of urban land

use• Campaign on responsible use of vehicles• Campaign on responsible on energy conservation and utilization

alternative fuel• Campaign on the improvement of people awareness

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Strategy for Urban Air Quality Improvement (UAQ-i) (cont’d.)

2. Strategy for air pollution control from various sources• The availability of unleaded fuel with the sulfur content of 500

ppm and diesel fuel with the sulfur content of 500 ppm nationally in 2007

• The improvement of average speed of vehicles in big cities and metropolitan cities as high as 25% in 2020

• Decrease of air pollution coming from vehicles as high as 50% in 2020 as compared to the level of pollution in 2007.

• Decreases of air pollution from industrial activities as high as 50% in 2020 as compared to the level of pollution in 2007.

• The improvement of fuel quality• Compliance to the threshold of vehicle emission• Implementation of compliance to emission quality standard for

industrial activities http://www.gcp-urcm.org/files/A20080204/Workshop/Industrial_emission_standard.pdf

• Controlling pollution from other sources

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Strategy for Urban Air Quality Improvement (UAQ-i) (cont’d.)

3. Monitoring of air quality strategy4. Control strategy and mitigation of the health impact5. Strategy strengthening institutions and improvement

of Government capacity

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Conclusions

The share of oil in the primary energy supply is the highest but tend to decrease.The share of transport sector in the final energy demand is the highest (> 64%) and then followed by the industrial sector.The AAGR of total CO2 emission during 1999-2001 is around 21%.The highest contribution of CO2 emission to total CO2emission is from power sector and then followed by the transport sector.

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