urban land institute moving cooler – an analysis of transportation strategies for reducing ghg...

Urban Land InstituteMoving Cooler – An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing GHG Emissions

Study Authored: July 2009

ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

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Study Authorship and Governance

Study AuthorCambridge Systematics, Inc. - Specializes in transportation, dedicated to ensuring that transportation investments deliver the best possible results. It is recognized as a leader in the development and implementation of innovative policy and planning solutions, objective analysis, and technology applications. Works to build the capacity of the transportation community to understand and address both sides of the climate change challenge: to develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, and to prepare for the potential effects of climate change on transportation systems.

Moving Cooler Steering CommitteeAmerican Public Transportation Association - Rob PadgetteEnvironmental Defense Fund - Michael ReplogleFederal Highway Administration - April Marchese and John DaviesFederal Transit Administration - Tina HodgesIntelligent Transportation Society of America - Leslie BellasNatural Resources Defense Council - Deron Lovaas and Nathan SandwickShell Oil Company - Miriam ConnerUrban Land Institute - Robert Dunphy, Rachelle Levitt, and Dean SchwankeU.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Ken Adler

Project FacilitationCollaborative Strategies Group, LLC

Objectives

• Assess the potential effectiveness of a wide variety of transportation strategies – under a broad range of different assumptions – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. – Focus was mainly on Travel Activity and Vehicle and System Operations (transportation

network improvements) and less on Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Technologies

• Study does not provide specific recommendations about the direction of transportation and climate change policies.

• Serves as companion study to:– 2007 McKinsey & Company, Conference Board Report, Reducing US Greenhouse Gas

Emissions: How much At What Cost? and;– 2008 Urban Land Institute Report, Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban

Development and Climate Change

Methodology

Develop baseline projecting GHG from 2010 to 2050

Based on the EIA AEO & DOE’s review of CAFE

Develop alternative baseline scenarios given uncertainties (3) + Obama Admin Proposal w/Baseline VMT base line

1. High Fuel Price, Low VMT

2. Low Fuel Price, High VMT

3. High Technology, High VMT

Develop independent strategies to understand the impacts

Develop and examine 6 strategy bundles to understand independencies and associated impacts

Examine each strategy bundle against an aggressive deployment level vs. a maximum level

1. Pricing strategies 2. Land use and smart

growth strategies 3. Non-motorized

transportation strategies

4. Public transportation improvement strategies

5. Regional ride-sharing, car-sharing, commuting strategies,

6. Regulatory strategies7. Operational and

intelligent transportation system strategies

8. Bottleneck relief and capacity expansion strategies, and

9. Multimodal freight strategies

Dimensions: geographic, time frame and intensityLevels: 1. Expanded current

effort, 2. more aggressive

(faster, broader, stronger implementation),

3. maximum effort (comprehensive, rapid, intense implementation)

1. Near term/early results

2. Long term/maximum results

3. Land use/transit/non-motorized transportation

4. System and Driver efficiency

5. Facility Pricing6. Low Cost

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5

Methodology Step 3 – Develop Independent Strategies to Understand the Impacts

• Nearly 50 strategies pertaining to Travel Activity and Vehicle Systems Operations were examined. These were generated from prior impacts of strategies, domestic and internationally, literature reviews, study team discussions.

• 9 categories emerged: – Pricing strategies, – Land use and smart growth strategies, – non-motorized transportation strategies, – public transportation improvement strategies, – regional ride-sharing, car-sharing, commuting strategies,– regulatory strategies– operational and intelligent transportation system strategies– bottleneck relief and capacity expansion strategies, and– multimodal freight strategies

Methodology Step 4 - Develop and examine 6 strategy bundles

• Six strategy bundles emerged that represent a culmination of actions of a common thrust:– Near–term early results – results by 2015– Long-term maximum results – maximize results without regard to cost, scale,

or timeframe of implementation– Land use/transit/non-motorized transportation – focuses on interaction of

urban-area strategies that increase density and encourage mode shifts, shorter trips, and increases walking, biking etc.

– System and driver efficiency – improve multi-modal system efficiency with reduced speeds, driving efficiencies, maximizing use of existing capacity, reducing congestion

– Facility pricing – tolls, congestion pricing, parking fees etc to induce changes in behavior and patterns, coupled with highway capacity expansion and transit service

– Low cost – deploying the most cost effective strategies to gain reductions

Methodology Step 5 – Examine strategy bundle against various deployment levels

• 3 levels of deployments across 3 dimensions were considered: – Dimensions:

• Geographic• Time Frame• Intensity

– Levels: • Expanded current effort• More aggressive (faster, broader, stronger implementation)• Maximum effort (comprehensive, rapid, intense implementation)


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A Comparison of Scope

Focus Area Moving Cooler NPC - FTFReduce VMT E

Reduce GHG – 2005 Baseline

Eby 83%(all sectors)

E by 50%

Transportation System improvements

E

Vehicle fuel efficiency E

Vehicle technological advancement required

E

Fuel processing advancement required

E

Infrastructure advancements required

E

Improve energy security E

Improve economic competitiveness

E


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Analysis Results Summary: Costs and GHG Reductions

Strategy Bundles GHG Reduction (Gt) Implementation Costs - billions

Change in Vehicle Costs - billions

Net Cost per Tonne

Near term early results

7.1 $676 -$3211 -$356

Long term maximum results

7.6 $2611 -$4846 -$293

Land use/transit/non-

motorized transportation

3.8 $1439 -$3270 -$484

System/driver efficiency

5.0 $1870 -$2214 -$69

Facility pricing 1.4 $2371 -$1121 -$891

Low cost 7.5 $599 -$3499 -$387

Summary of Bundle Results2010 to 2050 – Aggressive Deployment


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Analysis Results GHG Reduction

Percent Cumulative GHG Reduction from

Baseline Bundle

Aggressive DeploymentPercent Cumulative GHG Reduction

Maximum DeploymentPercent Cumulative GHG Reduction

2010-2020 2010-2030 2010-2050 2010-2020 2010-2030 2010-2050

Near Term/Early Results 3.7 6.9 10.4 6.6 10.3 13.7

Long Term/Max Results 3.3 7.0 11.3 6.1 11.1 16.0

Land Use/Transit/Non-motorized

1.6 3.3 5.6 3.0 5.8 9.3

System/Driver Efficiency

2.0 4.7 7.3 3.8 6.7 8.9

Facility Pricing 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.0 2.1 2.5

Low Cost 2.6 6.4 11.0 4.7 9.5 14.4

Percent Cumulative Reductions from Baseline(Aggressive and Maximum)2020, 2030, 2050


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Appendix


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Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation


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