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Urban planning and transport sustainability in developing countries compared to industrialized countries
27 October 2012 Wendell Cox Demographia
AGRICULTURE
even with urban expansion, there are
"adequate reserves of cultivatable land
sufficient to feed the planet in perpetuity
• Dimensions of Sustainability • Behavioral Strategies
(Compact City Policies) • Technological Strategies
(Green Technology) • Opportunities & Possibilities
Mendoza River, Argentina
O U T L I N E
WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY
…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
PROBLEM OF ONE DIMENSIONAL
TRANSPORT PLANNING
Manila
Mumbai: Airport East Slum
–The raison d’être of large cities is the increasing return to scale inherent to large labor markets. The cities’ economic efficiency requires, therefore, avoiding any spatial fragmentation of labor markets.
Why Cities Grow (Their Purpose) ALAIN BERTUAD, FORMER WORLD BANK PLANNER
Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE
Chicago
Reduced Minority Unemployment
With Cars U. of California
PRUD’HOMME Mobility Improves
Productivity U. Of Paris
HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves
Productivity
“Time is Money”
• . The cities of developing Africa may have long since become too spatially large for walking to suffice as a principal mode of access without hobbling economic growth and ingraining high levels of poverty.
African Cities are Too Large for Walking ALREADY TOO SPATIALLY LARGE
PRE-REQUISITES TO ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Dimensions of Sustainability
DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY
POVERTY ALLEVIATION Does the strategy contribute to poverty alleviation? COST EFFECTIVE SUSTAINABILITY Can the strategy reduce GHG emissions at a cost within the $50 ceiling per ton?
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY Is the strategy without serious potential for reducing economic growth or increasing poverty? POLITICAL SUSTAINABILITY Is the strategy without serious potential for public rejection or evasion? ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Does the strategy have the potential to achieve the GHG emission reduction objective? OVERALL EVALUATION
POVERTY ALLEVIATION
Rio +20 Declaration
Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.
16 Dhaka
Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED
$0 $5,000
$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Africa
Latin America
Asia
Argentina
GDP/Capita 2000$ United States
W. Europe
Japan
Economies Vary by Extent of Poverty THERE ARE WEALTHY IN ALL NATIONS
Australia
Rio de Janeiro: Rich & Poor
• Few low income central city residents in Boston could reach high growth suburban employment areas within one hour by transit.
–Federal Transit Administration
• Given the strong connection between cars and employment outcomes, auto ownership programs may be one of the more promising options and one worthy of expansion
• –Blumenberg & Waller (Brookings Institution)
Personal Mobility Alleviates Poverty HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS
Houston
• In most cases, the shortest distance between a poor person and a job is along a line driven in a car
– Waller & Hughes (Progressive Policy Institute)
• If automobiles were available to all African American households, the gap between non-Hispanic-white and African-American unemployment would be reduced by nearly one-half.
– Raphael & Stoll (UC-Berkeley)
Personal Mobility Alleviates Poverty HOW PERSONAL MOBILITY EMPOWERS
Portland
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000
$25,000$30,000$35,000
$40,000$45,000
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
WALKING
TRANSIT
AUTO
Mobility Associated with Affluence MORE ACCESS, MORE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Highest GDP/Capita (2005$)
Changsha, China
From OECD Data
COST EFFECTIVE SUSTAINABILITY
Shenyang, China
Cost Effectiveness is Crucial UN IPCC MAXIMUM RANGE PER METRIC TON
Market Less than
$15
McKinsey Average
$17
Above $50 is wasteful Detracts from efforts to reduce GHGs
& unnecessarily reduces employment & economic growth
“What we Don’t Like” GHG Policy
Back To the 17th
Century?
The Cost per Ton Removed
Not an Issue Of
Fair Share By
Sector
California High Speed Rail $1,800 to $10,000 PER GHG TON
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
IPCC: Maximum Freeway Performance
Bus/Land Use/Pricing
Rail/Land Use/Pricing
Annual Cost/GHG Tonne Removed
Transit/Land Use Strategies Expensive COST PER TON REMOVED: SAN FRANCISCO
Source: 2035 Plan
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
Economic Growth
is a Necessity
FOR SOCIAL COHESION
• Minimizing Travel Time & Economic Growth – Congestion costs – Productivity
• Research: More Job Access in Fixed Time Means
Better Urban Economic Performance – Prud’homme et al (U. of Paris) – Cervero (U. of California) – Hartgen/Fields (U. of North Carolina) – Cox
Personal Mobility: Increases Economic Growth ACCESS TO LARGER NUMBER OF JOBS
Lisbon
POLITICAL SUSTAINABILITY
Rajendra K. Pachauri CHAIR, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
• Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?" … You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don't have any choice but to use coal.
First world
Europe: Protests Against Austerity ATHENS: 18 OCTOBER 2012
Protests Against Raising Retirement Age FRANCE: 18 OCTOBER 2012
London demonstrations
London: Call for General Strike TUBE CLOSURES: 20 OCTOBER 2012
MUST BE POL ACC
• NO ONE SHOULD THINK THE JOB WIL BE EASY
Political Acceptability is Necessary
36 36
Truncated Freeway: Ciqikou Ancient
Town
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
How to get the best results
MORE & LESS DEVELOPED WORLD
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Billi
ons
World Population: 1950-2100 BY INCOME: ACTUAL AND PROJECTED
More Developed World
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Mill
ions
China Population: 1950-2100
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED
Data from UN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
0.2
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Higher Income World Lower & Middle Income World
Chan
ge in
Pop
ulat
ion:
Bill
ions
Population Growth: 2010-2100
HIGHER INCOME, LOWER & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD
Higher income world: $20,000 & Over
Calculated from UN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
Five Years Ended
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nigeria Niger Congo (Dem. Rep.) South Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Fertility Rate REGION & SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES: 1950-2010
Data from UN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
Autos in All Western Europe & North America MAJORITY OF MOTORIZED TRAVEL IS AUTO IN ALL CITIES
Example PORTLAND
Transit +Cycle+Walk Market Share Down
9% 1980-2011
Assumptions (Simplified) BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES AND THE REALITY
• We shall all have to – Give up our cars & switch to public transport – Move from the suburbs to the urban cores
• Yet no serious research indicates that the likely greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction objectives can be met by these strategies
Behavioural Strategies COMPACT CITY POLICY (DENSIFICATION)
Changing how we live and work Seoul
Urban form policies can have important impacts on local environmental quality, economy, crowding, and social equity, but their influence on energy consumption and land use is very modest; compact development should not automatically be associated with the preferred spatial growth strategy.
R² = 0.8856
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Vehicle Hours/KM2.
Population/ KM2
Hong Kong
Higher Density Means More Traffic Congestion DENSITY & TRAFFIC VOLUMES: INTERNATIONAL
Congestion & Excess GHG Emissions 90 URBAN AREAS: CHANGE 1982-2007
More Research Needed
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
9+ Floors 4-8 Floors <4 Floors Townhouse Detached
Multi-Unit Single Family
Source: Energy Australia Study
Annual GHG Tons/Capita
Study: Multi-Unit GHG Emissions Higher INCLUDING COMMON ENERGY EMISSIONS
No US data HUGE RESEARCH GAP
Sydney
COMPACT CITY PROJECTIONS:
PROBABLY OPTIMISTIC
Suburban Toronto (Newmarket)
Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles
From Downtown Relies on Cars
High Density Outside Core TRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY
Welwyn
Example Average Work Trip Distance
Welwyn Residents 2X Town Diameter
New Towns & Self-Containment (UK) BALANCE ACHIEVED – RESIDENTS WORK ELSEWHERE
Average Work Trip Length: 2001
Rio de Janeiro Favela (Rocinha)
Jobs Housing Balance: Favela in Rio GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO SEE: WCTRS 2013
100% 95%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Population Density Travel per Household
Chan
ge
Densification and Travel HIGHER INCOME, LOWER & MIDDLE INCOME WORLD
Per Ewing & Cervero (2010)
Calculated from UN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
...the prominence given modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.
Little Hope: To Shift People from Cars to Transit EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT
Central Business District (CBD) Jobs SHARE OF METROPOLITAN AREA
CBD Outside CBD
Shanghai
16%
84%
59%
41%
Suburban Transit Access: Slow & Limited EXCEPT TO LARGEST COMMERCIAL CORES: CASE OF PARIS
Jobs Accessible in 1 Hour Not
Accessible
Jobs Accessible
Not Accessible
Auto Transit
Paris
Transit’s “Last Kilometer” Problem ELSEWHERE TRANSIT IS SLOWER FOR MORE TRIPS
Annual Cost: More than gross
annual income of metropolitan area
An auto competitive system for Portland?
800 Meter Metro Grid Required
The Modeling Record HUGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE LIKELY
33%
67%
New Ridership Excess Above Inflation
Calculated from
NTDB data
Most New US $ Goes to Excess Costs 1982-2006: INFLATION ADJUSTED
Tokyo Rail Transit Map
Anthony Downs (Brookings Institution
Economist)
Principle of a
Competitive Land Supply
St. Louis
Economic Principle Rationing (Scarcity) Raises Prices
Economic Research is Virtually Unanimous
Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less
Median House Price/ Median Household Income
CONCERN….
….that in the absence of ample and
accessible land for expansion on the urban
periphery, artificial shortages of residential
land will quickly extinguish any hope
that housing will remain affordable,
especially for the urban poor..."
House Price Escalation: The Big Problem ECONOMICS: SCARCITY INCREASES PRICES
Paul Krugman,
Princeton University 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics
Housing bubble where restricted land use, not where less restrictions No bubble where more suburbanization
Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
1988-2002 Introduction to
4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.
RAW LAND COST DIFFERENCES UK Up to 500 times (Leunig): Same Area
Portland & Auckland: 11 times: Across the Road
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Liberal Markets Compact City Markets
2007 Peak 1980-2000 Average
Median House Price Increases RELATIVE TO HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
Median Multiple: Median House Price/
Median Household Income
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Med
ian
Mul
tiple
Less Restrictive Markets More Restrictive Markets: Outside California More Restrictive Markets: California
1950 – 1970: From Census Bureau 1980-2009: From Harvard University
2010: From Demographia Annual Data Begins at 1980
Housing Affordability 1950-2011 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE
Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Detroit Atlanta
Phoenix Cincinnati Cleveland
Las Vegas Kansas City
Columbus Minneapolis-STP
Indianapolis St. Louis
Pittsburgh Orlando
Dallas-Ft Worth Houston
Nashville Sacramento
Charlotte Riverside-SB Tampa-STP
Virginia Beach Birmingham
Austin Dublin
Chicago Baltimore
Philadelphia Milwaukee
Washington (DC) Denver Miami
Portland Leeds
Seattle Manchester
Montreal Boston
Toronto Los Angeles
Perth Brisbane
San Diego New York Auckland
London Exurbs London (GLA)
Adelaide San Francisco
San Jose Melbourne
Sydney Vancouver Hong Kong
Less Restrictive Land Use Regulation More Restrictive Land Use Regulation
Markets above 1,500,000 population Except in Australia & New Zealand:
Above 1,000,000 population
Housing Affordability & Land Regulation LARGER METROPOLITAN MARKETS
Median Multiple
“Costs of Sprawl-2000”: House Prices REALITY V. PROJECTION: 2000-2025: PER UNIT
-$20,000$0
$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000
2007 2000 2025
Actual Increase Relative to Other Markets (2007$)
Los Angeles
London
Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam
-Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch.
Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth EUROPEAN & US RESEARCH
Higher unemployment in the UK
-Mayo & Angel World Bank
20% less job growth than expected in
metropolitan areas with strongest
land use regulation -Raven Saks
US Federal Reserve Board
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White-Non-Hispanic African American Hispanic
Minority Home Ownership Trails GAP UNLIKELY TO NARROW WITH SMART GROWTH
Technological Strategies
GREEN TECHNOLOGY
Chicago Reducing GHG emissions from how we live and work
http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/data/nBackIssue20080617_01.html
Zero Emission House: Japan 2,100 SQUARE FEET: DETACHED
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1970 2008
VOC CO NOX Driving
Air Pollution & Driving in the US GROSS EMISSIONS AND TOTAL DRIVING: 1970-2008
Figure 79
Calculated from EPA and Federal Highway
Administration data
Caution: This is gross data, not
per mile data
Co-sponsors included: NRDC, EDF, Shell
McKinsey & Conference Board NO RADICAL LIFESTYLE CHANGES NEEDED
…no change in thermostat settings or appliance use, no downsizing of vehicles,
home or commercial space and traveling
the same mileage
…no shift to denser housing
Exurban Manila
Coming to Terms with
Global Urban Expansion
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Coverage Ratio 45 Minutes
Jobs
Acc
essi
ble
Transit in Walking Distance
Mass Transit Coverage Ratio v. Access US METROPOLITAN AREAS: BEST TRANSIT SYSTEMS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Transit (Bus, Urban & Commuter Rail)
2012 Cars & SUVs 2035 Cars & SUVs 2012 Best MPG Car
CO
2 G
ram
s pe
r Pas
seng
er M
ile Calculated from US Department Of Energy, Federal Transit Administration
And ### data
CO2 Emissions: Transit & Automobiles PRESENT AND FUTURE
Figure 86
Better Technology is Already Here MOST EFFICIENT HYBRIDS
Suzhou
European Parliament MPG Requirement 58 MPG BY 2020
Paris: 12 Lane Freeway
AGRICULTURE
even with urban expansion, there are
"adequate reserves of cultivatable land
sufficient to feed the planet in perpetuity
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Other Rural: Open Space Outside the Human Footprint
Rural: Agriculture
Urban Development
Urban & Rural Land: United States 1950-2000
Rural Development
• GHG emissions objectives can only be met by a vibrant economy.
• Behavioural Strategies (compact city policies)
– Focus: Changing behavior (indirect) – Little potential to reduce GHG emissions – Would do so at exorbitant cost – Could seriously damage the economy & increase poverty.
• Technological Strategies (green technology)
– Focus: Reducing GHG intensity of how we live (direct) – Potential to meet virtually any GHG reduction objectives – Much lower cost to the economy.
The Thesis…. IT’S THE ECONOMY…
Shenzhen, China
OPPORTUNITIES & POSSIBILITIES
Potential: Volkswagen: 235 MPG Car LIMITED EUROPEAN MARKETING BEGINS IN 2010
Obama 150 MPG car by 2015
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
EU 2025 Anticipated Standard VW 1-Litre Car 2015 National Standard: Baseline
GHG Intensity: China Opportunities 2010-2050 LIGHT VEHICLES
Pictures/compressed air car
Compressed Air Car: Tata to Build ZERO GHG EMISSION POTENTIAL
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fuel/9619269/British-engineers-produce-amazing-petrol-from-air-technology.html
• Producing gasoline from CO2 – http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/19/science/19carb.html?ref=
science • Alternative Fuels Production by Yeast
– http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16989-yeast-and-bacterium-turned-into-gasoline-factory.html
• Cellulosic ethanol • Plug in vehicles • Green Car Sharing (Paris, London & Austin)
– http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23656098-details/Boris+plans+electric+car+hire+scheme+for+London/article.do
– http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS155367+26-Mar-2009+PRN20090326
• Telecommuting – http://www.itif.org/files/Telecommuting.pdf
Many Opportunities EVIDENCES OF HUMAN INGENUITY
Bosporus-Black Sea
CONCLUSION
Andes, Chile
Manila
POVERTY IS NOT AN OPTION
Conclusion THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESS
• Behavioral strategies could fail – Not environmentally sustainable – Intrusiveness could be devastating to
economic growth and increase poverty – Not economically sustainable – Not necessary
• Technological strategies: has the potential to succeed – Advantage: Allow economic growth & job
creation while meeting GHG objectives
Planners People
Rail Station: Suburban Paris