URBANISATION: THREATS & POTENTIAL

•  Hard sustainability limits

•  Sustainable development goals & urbanisation

•  South African agenda

•  Why is sustainable urbanisation so elusive?

•  What is to be done? (Part polemic, part provocation)

PLANETARY LIMITS

Source: Rockstrom, Et Al. 2009

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

The Great Acceleration

•  Temperature •  Population •  CO2 concentration •  GDP •  Loss of tropical rainforest •  Water use •  Species extinction •  Motor vehicles •  Paper consumption •  Fisheries exploited •  Ozone depletion •  Foreign investment

Great Acceleration

6.5 billion

9 billion

2010 2050

World Population

3 billion

7 billion

2010 2050

Urban Population

Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs

1 billion

2010

Informal Urban Population

3 billion

2050

1.5 billion

2010

Middle Class 2050

4 billion

Resilient growth (macro)

Sustainable Development Goals:

2015-2030

Human Development

(education, health & social protection)

GDP, Productivity &

Job Growth

CO2 Emissions Reduction, Resource

Efficiency & Ecosystem

services restoration

Global discussion: SDG Summit; Cop 21; Habitat III

SDG Draft Goals 1.  End poverty in all its forms everywhere 2.  End hunger, achieve food security and

improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

3.  Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

4.  Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

5.  Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

6.  Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

7.  Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

8.  Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

9.  Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

10.  Reduce inequality within and among countries

11.  Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

12.  Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

13.  Make urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

14.  Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

15.  Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

16.  Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

17.  Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

South Africa is closely aligned in thinking

Liveable, safe, resource-efficient cities and towns that are socially integrated, economically inclusive and globally competitive, where residents actively participate in urban life.

2. Integrated transport & mobility

VISION& LEVERS&

3. Integrated sustainable human settlements

STRATEGIC&GOALS&

1. ACCESS

2. GROWTH

3. GOVERNANCE

4. SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION

4. Integrated urban infrastructure

5. Effective land governance & management

6. Inclusive economic development

7. Empowered active citizens

8. Effective urban governance

1. Integrated spatial planning

The IUDF identifies eight levers to effect policy change premised on the belief that (1) spatial planning forms the basis for achieving integrated urban development, which

follows a specific sequence of urban policy actions: (2) integrated transport that informs (3) targeted investments into integrated human settlements, underpinned by (4) integrated infrastructure network systems and (5) efficient land governance, which all together can trigger (6) economic diversification and inclusion, and (7) empowered communities, which in turn will demand (8) deep governance reform to enable and sustain all of the above.

•  Urban Network Strategy, as the basis for Transit Oriented Development

•  Integration Zones for spatially targeted, cross-sectoral public investment

•  Catalytic projects that are results focused, strategically located, integrated, multi-sectoral and partnership-based

Is it possible that we can have all the “right” policies, concepts and plans and still make no impact on the challenges facing the city?

Technocratic Denialism (planning without ‘gees’)

If this proposition holds true, where does it leave us? What do we need to do to truly effect spatial transformation, sustainability & economic inclusion?

•  In 1970-1980s: confluence of deindustrialisation + take-off of urbanisation of black people + a withdrawal of the state from (segregated) public housing provision…

•  Left a disaster for the new government in 1994: large-scale unemployment, informalisation… and a regulatory system that drives structural exclusion and segregation

1980 1990 2000 2006 2010* Primary sector 15.5 13.1 10.8 8.8 3 Secondary sector 27.6 26.0 24.2 23.6 31.2 Tertiary sector 56.9 61.0 64.9 67.6 65.8 Source:(Rustomjee(&(Hanival(2008(&(*CIA(Factbook,(2011.(

•  Low human capital formation due to poor education and health attainments

•  Reinforced by spatial marginalisation which undermine economic and educational attainment and reinforces inwardly focussed ‘ghettos’ of exclusion; a recipe for extreme social violence (reinforced by the RDP/BNG housing programme)

•  Result: Vicious circle of cumulative disadvantage tightly correlated with with race & class

Structure of the Cape Town Economy (CCT 2015)

(CCT 2015)

•  Severe racialised income inequality with no prospect of abatement: Gini: 0.71 (Sweden is 0.23)

•  Close to 40% of population live below the poverty line

•  20% of the population live in informal settings (shacks and backyards)

•  When we grow economically the distributional effects are reinforced and worsened

•  What growth there is, is entrenched in a profoundly unsustainable growth model (cheap energy & sprawl-based)

Total ecological footprint – 128 264 km2 Jurisdictional area – 2 487 km2 Built footprint – 774 km2

Total footprint per capita – 4,28 ha CT GHG emissions: 6.3 t.pa/capita

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Popula4on,&2011&

•  Since the education or policing or economic systems will not be fixed anytime soon, is the incremental tinkering rooted in technocratic confidence, going to make any difference?

•  How do we grow some guts to say and do the hard stuff?

MAJORITY CITY (FLATS)

ELITE CITY (US)

MAJORITY CITY (FLATS)

ELITE CITY

MIXED CITY

Through TOD model…

- Basic service provision - Sites and services - Upgrading - BNG housing - Improved BRT access

- Maintain service standards & enhance infrastructure - Promote new real estate investment

The current model of TOD development boils down to a 20-30 year agenda to lay the basis for real-estate driven urban integration and reconfiguration… Is this good enough?

What would happen if we combine the technocratic certainty with trusting (civil) society to take the lead?

TOD-based integration on speed •  Accelerate TOD investments •  Fast-track rail-based investments •  Integrate and expand mini-bus taxis •  Prioritise NMT •  Address mixed-economy models to include

informal and micro-enterprise sectors

Critical Black Mass •  Criminalize NYMBISM (let’s debate how) •  Pursue social housing through radical infill •  Minimum inclusionary requirements (20%) •  Appropriate land for public housing •  Ensure 20% ‘free’ seats for poor in private & model

C schools •  isiXhosa compulsory subject •  Cross-subsidize free art and culture education for

all linked into society-wide campaigns and festivals to stich the spiritual and cultural fabric of the city.

Majority city agenda

•  Unleash the gees and capability of citizens… even if it feels politically dangerous and risky

•  Focus on youth unemployment and the making of “place” and community as the city’s shared obsession

•  ‘Identity’ and ‘Sustainability’ imperatives provide the entry points and rationale…

PRIDE IN PLACE >

INVESTMENT

VIBRANT PUBLIC SPACE

GOOD SCHOOLS

WORK & INCOME

SAFETY & WELLBEING

Ensure the basics for all

•  By definition this requires a strong society propelled by confident & capable organisations and leaders.

•  Let’s make the investment!

•  We need a systemic model to bring this forth… This is the most important DESIGN challenge for Cape Town

In summary, Cape Town will not become more sustainable, inclusive and economically successful if your personal and professional life (and institutions) are not radically altered. If we cannot achieve critical mass within the middle-class and business communities to drive radical spatial and social change, in concert with the majority city, no amount of planning and investment will make much of a difference…