us commercial banksus commercial banks yardeni research, inc. september 11, 2020 dr. edward yardeni...

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US Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. March 19, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

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Page 1: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

US Commercial Banks

Yardeni Research, Inc.

March 19, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

March 19, 2021 / US Commercial Banks www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Bank Credit 1-2Securities 3-4Loans 5C&I Loans 6Real Estate Loans 7Liabilities 8-9Borrowings 10-11Miscellaneous Banking 12Large Banks 13-15Small Banks 16-18Large & Small Banks 19-21Commercial Bank Capital Proxy 22Large & Small Banks 23-24

Page 3: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

3/10

BANKS: TOTAL CREDIT(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

* Includes loans, leases, and securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-700

-500

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-100

100

300

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700

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1100

1300

1500

1700

-700

-500

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100

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900

1100

1300

1500

1700

3/10

BANKS: TOTAL CREDIT(yearly change, billion dollars)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

At All Banks

Figure 2.

Bank Credit

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Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 4: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-500

0

500

1000

-500

0

500

1000

BANKS: SECURITIES(yearly change, billion dollars) 3/10

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 3.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

0

10

20

-10

0

10

20

3/10

BANKS: LOANS & LEASES(yearly percent change)

Total (2.4)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Bank Credit

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Page 5: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

BANKS: SECURITIES(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

3/10

Total Securities

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.1

.5

.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.52.93.33.74.1

.1

.5

.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.52.93.33.74.1

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: SECURITIES(trillion dollars, sa ratio scale)

3/10

Securities HoldingsUS Treasury & Agency (3.9)Other (1.0)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Securities

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

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0

50

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500

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650

700

750

800

850

900

-150

-100

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0

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800

850

900

3/10

BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES(billion dollars, yearly change)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2212

13

14

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12

13

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17

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19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES(as a percent of bank credit)

3/10

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Securities

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

3/10

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: LOANS & LEASES(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale) Latest (10.4)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-500

0

500

1000

-500

0

500

1000

3/10BANKS: LOANS & LEASES IN BANK CREDIT(yearly change, billion dollars)

Securities

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 10.

Loans

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

3/10

Latest (2.6)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-350

-250

-150

-50

50

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450

550

650

750

850

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

BANKS: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS(yearly change, billion dollars)

3/10

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

C&I Loans

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Page 9: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.53/10BANKS: REAL ESTATE LOANS

(trillion dollars, sa)

Other Residential LoansCommercial Real Estate

Home Equity Loans

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 13.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-200

-150

-100

-50

0

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0

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250

300

3/10

BANKS: REAL ESTATE LOANS(yearly change, billion dollars)

Other Residential Loans

Commercial Real Estate

Home Equity Loans

yardeni.com

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 14.

Real Estate Loans

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Page 10: US Commercial BanksUS Commercial Banks Yardeni Research, Inc. September 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@yardeni.com

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

3/10BANKS: TOTAL LIABILITIES(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2000

-1500

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-500

0

500

1000

1500

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2500

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4000

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-1500

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0

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3500

4000

3/10

BANKS: TOTAL LIABILITIES(yearly change, billion dollars)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

Liabilities

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

182022

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

182022

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: TOTAL DEPOSITS(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

3/10

Latest (16.6)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

BANKS: TOTAL DEPOSITS(yearly change, billion dollars)

3/10

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

Liabilities

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3/10

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS: BORROWINGS*(trillion dollars, sa)

BorrowingBy All Banks (1.8)

* From banks and nonbanks in the US.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

3/10

BANKS: BORROWINGS*(yearly change, billion dollars)

* From banks and nonbanks in the U.S.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

Borrowings

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

3/10

BANKS: BORROWINGS(as a percent of total liabilities)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

3/10

BANKS: BORROWINGS*(as a percent of total liabilities)

Large BanksSmall Banks

* From banks and nonbanks in the US.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Borrowings

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

3/10

BANKS: CASH ASSETS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS(trillion dollars)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

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850

-250

-150

-50

50

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250

350

450

550

650

750

850

3/10

BANKS: NET DUE TO RELATED FOREIGN OFFICES(billion dollars)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

Miscellaneous Banking

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0 3/10LARGE BANKS: BANK CREDIT(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2252

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

3/10

LARGE BANKS: BANK CREDIT(as a percent of total bank credit)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Large Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.53/10LARGE BANKS: TOTAL SECURITIES

(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 27.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

3/10

LARGE BANKS: TOTAL LOANS & LEASES(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Large Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

3/10LARGE BANKS: TOTAL DEPOSITS(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

3/10

LARGE BANKS: BORROWINGS(billion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Large Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.53/10SMALL BANKS: BANK CREDIT

(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2219

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

3/10

SMALL BANKS: BANK CREDIT(as a percent of total bank credit)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

3/10

SMALL BANKS: TOTAL SECURITIES(billion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

3/10SMALL BANKS: TOTAL LOANS & LEASES(trillion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.53/10SMALL BANKS

(trillion dollars, sa)

Total Deposits

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2250

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

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450

500

550

600

3/10

SMALL BANKS: BORROWINGS(billion dollars, sa)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-450

-250

-50

150

350

550

750

950

1150

-450

-250

-50

150

350

550

750

950

1150

3/10

BANK CREDIT(yearly change, billion dollars)

At SmallDomestic Banks*

At LargeDomestic Banks*

* Adjusted for mergers.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-425

-375

-325

-275

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-125

-75

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25

75

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575

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425

475

525

575

3/10

LOANS & LEASES(yearly change, billion dollars)

At SmallDomestic Banks* (353.0)

At LargeDomestic Banks* (-111.6)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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* Adjusted for mergers.

Figure 38.

Large & Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100

-80

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SECURITIES AT BANKS(yearly change, billion dollars)

At LargeDomestic Banks*

At SmallDomestic Banks*

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* Adjusted for mergers. Excluding US government securities.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 39.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-600

-500

-400

-300

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-100

0

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3/10

DOMESTIC BORROWINGS(yearly change, billion dollars)

At Large Domestic Banks*At Small Domestic Banks*

* Adjusted for mergers.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 40.

Large & Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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20003/10

3/10

COMMERCIAL BANKS: CASH ASSETS(billion dollars)

Small BanksLarge Banks

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 41.

Large & Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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2200

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2200

Feb

DOMESTICALLY CHARTERED COMMERCIAL BANKS: CAPITAL PROXY*(billion dollars, sa)

All BanksLarge BanksSmall Banks

* Assets minus liabilities.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 42.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

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40

50

Feb

DOMESTIALLY CHARTERED COMMERCIAL BANKS: CAPITAL PROXY*/ASSETS(billion dollars, sa)

All BanksLarge Banks

* Assets minus liabilities.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Figure 43.

Commercial Bank Capital Proxy

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.58.59.510.5

.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.58.59.5

10.5

3/10

3/10DOMESTICALLY CHARTERED COMMERCIAL BANKS: TOTAL DEPOSITS(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

Large Banks (10.1)Small Banks (5.3)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.1

.5

.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

.1

.5

.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

3/10

3/10

DOMESTICALLY CHARTERED COMMERCIAL BANKS: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

Large Banks (1.3)Small Banks (0.9)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

Large & Small Banks

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.1

.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.13.6

.1

.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.13.6

3/10DOMESTICALLY CHARTERED COMMERCIAL BANKS: US TREASURY & AGENCY SECURITIES(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

Large Banks (2.9)Small Banks (0.9)

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25

0

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Q4

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: ALLOWANCE FOR LOAN & LEASE LOSSES(billion dollars, sa)

3/10Allowance for Losses

All Commercial Banks (212.9)Large Domestic Banks (139.9)Small Domestic Banks (73.4)Provision for Loan & Lease Loses MinusNet Charge-Offs** (262.4)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.** Cumulative change since 1984. All FDIC-insured financial institutions.

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.

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Figure 47.

Large & Small Banks

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