U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Fort CollinsScience Center

Invasives Species Science Branch

Science and Management Priorities for Mitigating the Impacts of Buffelgrass Invasion

and Novel Fire Regimes in the Sonoran DesertFirst Annual Workshop, May 4-6, 2010 Tucson

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

National Park

Service

Bureau of Land

Management

Forest Service

DepartmentOf Defense

Fish & WildlifeService

ArizonaState LandsDepartment

Arizona State Parks

Arizona DOT

Pima CountyAdministrator

Pima CountyNR, Parks &Recreation

Pima CountyDOT

City ofTucson

Town ofOro Valley

Town ofMarana

Town ofSahuarita

PimaAssociationOf Gov’ts

Responsibility for Public Lands & Right-of-Ways in Pima County

Tohono O’dhamNation

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National MonumentTracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich

How can a DSS help?

Resources are limited Alternative actions are expensive Lag time between actions and results How to get the highest return on investment?

$

Alternative decisions

Inventory - $$$$$Treatment - $$$$$$$$$Maintenance - $$$

Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$Treatment - $$Maintenance - $$$$

OR? Where?

Multiple objectives

Public safetyBiodiversityTourismCost effective

Frid et al. ( in press) Invasive Plants

Science & Management

Buffelgrass SpreadRates at 11 sites

South slope Catalina Mts

Olsson, Betancourt, Marsh & Crimmins, In Review, Journal of Arid Environments

Calibrating Spread

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1988 1998 2008

Year

He

cta

re

s

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1994 2000 2006

Year

Hecta

res

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

0.00

0.05

0.100.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.350.40

0.45

0.50

2002 2005 2008

Year

Hecta

res

Actual (Aaryn)

Simulated (TELSA)

Questions?

What if control could happen in neighboring areas?

What if intensive surveys could be conducted more frequently?

What if budget could be increased? What if treatment effectiveness could be

increased? What would the cost be?

Questions?

How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands?

What if volunteers were not available? What if budgets were interrupted so

treatment would only happen every two years?

Where is the biggest fire risk? Where would the most effective treatment to

reduce fire risk?

Model development process

Biology of species Growth, Spread and Mortality

Management activities Effectiveness Amount Cost

Scenarios Change management actives Change management amounts Change uncertainties

State and Transition Model

Current Buffelgrass Invasion

Based on survey data

Classified into categories listed

Ironwood Land Ownership

Remote = 1 mile from roads

Units here define management actions

Habitat suitability

Classifies landscape into three categories

Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread

Scenarios run

No Management Current Management Double Budget

Manager allocated

Manage everywhere

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

CurrentManagement

NoManagement

DoubleBudget

ManageEverywhere

Mortality-CurrentManagement

Year

Are

a In

vad

ed (

ac)

No Management

No management No mortality

Management InputManagement Activity <5% 5 to

50% >50% >50 partial

Cost Per Acre

Acres Per Yr

Incidental Inventory 1% 50% 90%   $0.06 12,000

Intensive Field Surveys 90% 90% 100%   $0.10 129,000

Vehicle Mounted Spraying 50%* 50%* 50%* 25% $400.00 10

Backpack Spraying (accessible) 50% 50%* 50% 25%* $125.00 200

Volunteer Hand Pulling (accessible & remote) 90% 90% 90% 9% $68.64 40

Follow-up maintenance (volunteer remote) 100% NA NA   $68.64 10

Follow-up maintenance (accessible) 100% NA NA   $112.00 80

Effectiveness by percent cover

*Have updated values not yet incorporated

Current Management

10-yr time step2022-2062

No Management vs Current

Area Invaded

2022 2032 2042 2052 20620

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

No Management Current Management Double Budget Manage Everywhere

Year

Acr

es I

nva

ded

Cost of Treatment over 50 Years

Current Management Double Budget Management Everywhere0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

To

tal

Co

st (

Mil

lio

ns

$) a

fter

50

Yea

rs

Management Efficiency

Current Management Double Budget Manage Everywhere0

20

40

60

80

100

120A

nn

ual

Co

st (

$) p

er A

cre

Pre

ven

ted

NEXT STEPS

Acceptance of DSS as common framework If yes, how do we extend to all jurisdictions? Data and research needs (e.g., suitability,

spread parameters, treatment effectiveness) Consideration of short-term risks (fire) Who will run the models? (consultant, USGS,

agency staff) Usability (software & web user interface) Adoption of spreadsheet for regional planning