www.bls.gov

U.S. Economy

Keith HallCommissioner

Bureau of Labor StatisticsAugust, 2009

2

-72

-144 -122-160

-137-161

-128-175

-321

-380

-597

-681

-741

-681-652

-519

-303

-443

-247

-900

-750

-600

-450

-300

-150

0

Employment in total nonfarm

Seasonally adjusted in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, August 7, 2009.Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

Over-the-month change, 2008-09

3

Payroll Employmentaverage monthly change

-247

-254

-128

-119

-331

-314

-188

-143

-645

-658

-302

-344

-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0

Total nonfarm

Total private

Goods-producing

Service-providing

July

Last 3 Months

Prior 6 Months

4

Payroll Employmentaverage monthly change

-76

-52

-44

-22

-73

-110

-31

-17

-117

-176

-63

-34

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

Construction

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Transportation andwarehousing

July

Last 3 Months

Prior 6 Months

5

Payroll Employmentaverage monthly change

-13

-38

9

7

-23

-57

6

-17

-46

-138

-38

13

-150 -100 -50 0 50

Financial activities

Professional andbusiness services

Leisure andhospitality

Government

July

Last 3 Months

Prior 6 Months

6

Civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, 1990-2009

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

J an-9

0

Jan-9

1

Jan-9

2

Jan-9

3

Jan-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, August 7, 2009.

7

Total private employment gains and losses, 3-month change, 1990-2009, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Job gains, 3-month change Job losses, Absolute 3-month change

8

Real GDP

Chart 15. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

5.4

1.4

3.2 3.6

0.1

2.11.2

3.03.12.11.7

-1.0

-6.4-5.4

-2.7

1.5

-0.7

2005

-Q2

2005

-Q3

2005

-Q4

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q2

2006

-Q3

2006

-Q4

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q2

2007

-Q3

2007

-Q4

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q2

2008

-Q3

2008

-Q4

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q2P

erce

nt C

han

ge

from

Pri

or Q

uart

er, S

AA

R

9

Consumer Confidence

Chart 26. Measures of Consumer AttitudesJuly 1999 to July 2009

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

1999

-Jul

2000

-Jul

2001

-Jul

2002

-Jul

2003

-Jul

2004

-Jul

2005

-Jul

2006

-Jul

2007

-Jul

2008

-Jul

2009

-Jul

Index

Con

fere

nce

Boa

rd 1

985=

100

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Index

Mic

hig

an 1

966=

100

Conference Board

Michigan

10

Business Investment

Chart 18. Shipments of Core Capital GoodsJune 2007 to June 2009

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Jun-

2007

Aug-200

7

Oct-20

07

Dec-200

7

Feb-20

08

Apr-200

8

Jun-

2008

Aug-200

8

Oct-20

08

Dec-200

8

Feb-20

09

Apr-200

9

Jun-

2009

Per

cent C

han

ge fr

om P

rior

Mon

th

11

New Home Construction

Chart 19. Housing Starts and Building PermitsJune 2007 to June 2009

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2007

-Jun

2007

-Aug

2007

-Oct

2007

-Dec

2008

-Feb

2008

-Apr

2008

-Jun

2008

-Aug

2008

-Oct

2008

-Dec

2009

-Feb

2009

-Apr

2009

-Jun

SA

AR

in th

ousa

nds

Permits

Starts

12

Consumer Prices

Chart 21. Consumer Price IndexUrban Consumers, 12-month percent change

-2.0

-1.00.0

1.0

2.0

3.04.0

5.0

6.0

12-m

onth

per

cent c

han

ge

Core All

13

Producer Prices

Chart 22. Producer Price IndexFinished Goods, 12-month percent change

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2007

-Jun

2007

-Aug

2007

-Oct

2007

-Dec

2008

-Feb

2008

-Apr

2008

-Jun

2008

-Aug

2008

-Oct

2008

-Dec

2009

-Feb

2009

-Apr

2009

-Jun

12-m

onth

per

cent c

han

ge

14

Alternative measures of labor underutilization, seasonally adjusted, 1994-2009

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

J an-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Percent

U-6

U-4U-5

U-2

U-1

U-3 Unemployment rate

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, August 7, 2009.

15

Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, seasonally adjusted, 1990-2009

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

J an-9

0

Jan-9

1

Jan-9

2

Jan-9

3

Jan-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Percent

Blacks or African Americans

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

Whites

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, August 7, 2009.

16

Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, seasonally adjusted, 1990-2009

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

J an-9

2

Jan-9

3

Jan-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jan-0

2

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Less than a high school diploma

High school graduates, no college

Some college or associate degree

Bachelor's degree and higher

Percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, August 7, 2009.

17

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Numbers in thousands

Long-term unemployment, seasonally adjusted, 1948-2009

15 weeksand over

27 weeksand over

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. Additional adjustments to population controls were incorporated into the data in January of various years. These changes can affect comparability with data for prior periods.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, August 7, 2009.

18

Comparison with previous recessionspercent employment change

Industry(months)

1945 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007

(8) (11) (10) (8) (10) (11) (16) (6) (16) (8) (8) (19)

Total nonfarm -7.9 -5.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 -3.1 -1.1 -1.2 -4.8

Total private -8.2 -6.0 -3.8 -4.9 -2.8 -2.0 -3.1 -1.6 -3.5 -1.3 -1.8 -5.9

Service-providing -0.6 -1.4 -0.4 -1.5 -0.6 1.5 2.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -2.9

Construction 3.4 -2.7 0.9 -5.5 -3.9 -1.7 -14.3 -5.9 -8.2 -7.5 -1.1 -18.3

Manufacturing -19.9 -9.8 -8.4 -8.6 -5.4 -7.9 -10.2 -5.2 -11.0 -3.2 -6.6 -14.2

Wholesale trade 6.9 -1.8 0.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.5 1.4 -0.3 -2.8 -1.4 -1.9 -6.3

Retail trade 3.2 -1.1 -0.7 -2.6 -2.4 0.6 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -1.7 -1.3 -5.3

Information -8.3 -7.9 -6.0 -6.8 -3.7 -2.5 -4.7 -2.2 -4.7 -0.3 -4.9 -6.6

Financial activities 4.1 1.5 3.2 1.0 1.9 2.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 -0.4 0.6 -6.1

Prof & Bus Services -3.0 -2.7 -1.4 -2.6 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.6 -1.9 -3.8 -8.3

Educ, health services 4.0 0.9 1.4 -0.4 2.3 2.3 4.7 1.9 2.6 3.5 2.6 3.8

Leisure & hosp 2.9 -0.7 -0.3 -1.8 -1.9 1.2 1.3 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -2.7

Other services 3.7 1.0 1.5 -0.4 2.2 2.2 4.5 1.9 2.5 -0.1 2.2 -1.7

Government -6.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.6 2.8 5.1 1.3 -1.2 -0.4 1.8 0.9

19

Change in the Unemployment Rate from the Beginning of Recent Recessions

Change in the Unemployment Rate age 16 and over

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Month

Per

cen

tag

e P

oin

t

1990

2001

Current Period

Note: The NBER announced that the current recession started in December 2007; an endpoint has not yet been determined.

1981-

1974-

20

Construction,over-the-month employment changes,

July 2008 - July 2009, (seasonally adjusted)

-150

-110

-70

-30

10

50

Ju

l-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oc

t-0

8

No

v-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Th

ou

san

ds

Avg. OTMC, Prior 12 Month = -84July '09 = -76

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: Aug 7, 2009 Created by: Christopher Goodman X16556 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: Aug 7, 2009 Created by: Christopher Goodman X16556 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

Construction major component industries,July 2009 over-the-month changes

vs prior 6-month averages,in thousands, seasonally adjusted

-12

-12

-12

-28

-38

-11

-6

-10

-16

-33

Residential buildingconstruction

Nonresidential buildingconstruction

Heavy and civil engineeringconstruction

Residential specialty tradecontractors

Nonresidential specialtytrade contractors

Prior 6-month Avg OTMC. July 2009

22

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: August 7, 2009.Created by: Steve Mance X15484, Ryan Davis X6542, and John Eddlemon X7894 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

Manufacturing over-the-month employment changes, seasonally adjusted, in thousands,

January 2007 - July 2009

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09

July 2009: -52Prior 6-mo. Avg: -172

23

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: June 5, 2009.Created by: Steve Mance X15484, Brett Caillier X6465, and Ryan Davis X6542 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

Manufacturing employment, seasonally adjusted, in thousands,

1941-2009

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.

24

July typically is a shut down month Many plants shut in May and June and remained shut in July,

resulting in a seasonally adjusted employment increase

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: August 7, 2009.Created by: Steve Mance X15484, Ryan Davis X6542, and John Eddlemon X7894 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

Motor vehicles and parts over-the-month employment changes,

seasonally adjusted, in thousands, January 2008 - July 2009

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09

July 2009: +28

25Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: August 7, 2009Created by: Christopher Goodenow X16544 Supervisor: Emily Liddel X16468

-8

-13

-26 -27

-45

-33

-56 -56

-41

-46

-27-29

-13

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL

Financial activities,over-the-month employment changes,

seasonally adjusted, in thousands,July 2008-July 2009

26Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: August 7, 2009Created by: Christopher Goodenow X16544 Supervisor: Emily Liddel X16468

-2

-4

-5

0

0

-13

-9

-4

-10

-5

Credit intermediation

Securities, investments

Insurance carriers

Real estate

Rental and leasing

Financial activities, major component industries,over-the-month employment changes,

seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Jul-09 Prior 6-month avg

Financial activities July OTMC: -13Prior-6 month avg: -43

27Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch, Release Date: August 7, 2009.Created by: Brett Caillier X16465 Supervisor: Laura Kelter X16549

28

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

hourly earnings and CPI-W (1982-84=100)1999-2009

Over-the-year percent changes in average

Seasonally adjusted, percent

Over-the-year percent changes

July 2009 AHE: 2.5

June 2009 CPI-W: -1.7

Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of CES data are preliminary.

Sources: BLS, Consumer Price Indexes program and Current Employment Statistics survey, August 7, 2009.

CPI-W

AHE