u.s. economy update - seeking alpha · 2018-02-28 · important regional manufacturing reports....
TRANSCRIPT
U.S.EconomyUpdateFebruary2018
MonthlyUpdateBasedOnLeadingRegionalManufacturingIndices
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WhatIsThisReportAbout?(1/2)
• Thispresentationisdiscussingthelatestresultsofthefivemostimportantregionalmanufacturingreports.• EmpireState,Philadelphia,KansasCity,RichmondandDallas
• Allindicatorsareleadingwhichmeansthatyouareabouttofindoutwhatwecanexpecttohappeninthefuture.TheyevenpredictthenumberoneleadingindicatoroftheUSeconomy:theISMmanufacturingindex.
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WhatIsThisReportAbout?(2/2)
• Imadeanaverageofallindicestogiveyoualessvolatileandmorepreciseoutlook.• Thefollowingtopicswillbediscussed:
• Compositeindex• Neworders• Shipments• Futurecapitalexpenditures• Pricespaid/received
• Notethattheindicatorspresentedwillhaveameaningfulimpactonthesegmenttheyarecovering.• Highercompositeoutlook->strongerGDPgrowth• Highershipments->tailwindfortransportationstocks• Higherpricesreceived->higherCPIinflation
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CompositeIndex
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Afteraslow-downinJanuary,weseethatthecompositeindexhasgainedstrength.Theindexroseto24.2afterhitting20.7inJanuary.ThispointstoastrongISMindexcloseto60.0points.Italsoshowsthatwearenotatthestartofanewgrowthslowingcycleasyouwillseewhenlookingattheotherindicatorsinthispresentation.
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Shipments
Justlikethecompositeindex,weseethatshipmentshavegainedsomemomentuminFebruary.Theindexrosefrom20.2inJanuaryto23.0inFebruary.Thisindicatesfurtherstrengthintheshipmentsindustryandcouldbeastrongtailwindfortransportationstocksoverthenext1-3months.
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NewOrders
AftertakingaratherbighitinJanuary,wearefinallyseeingastronguptick.Neworderssoaredfrom15.5inJanuaryto21.3inFebruary.ThisindicatesthatthelatestISMnewordersreadingof65.4isafairnumberandlikelytobeunchangedinFebruary.ItalsoconfirmsthattheeconomyisstrengtheningagaininFebruary.
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FutureCapitalExpenditures
ThefirstthingIthoughtwhenIlookedatmyupdatedgraphisthatImessedupsomecalculations.However,Ididnot.Futurecapitalexpendituresareactuallyat36.8versus35inJanuary.Thereisnobetterconfirmationofthecurrentgrowthtrend.Weareseeinghighergrowthandthetrendhasnotturnedagainstusasmacrobearshavebeentellingusforafewmonthsnow.
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PricesReceived
Pricesreceivedareaverygoodindicationofrealconsumerpriceindex.NotethatIaddedyear-on-yeargrowthofconsumerprices.InFebruary,wesawafurtheraccelerationfrom22.5to23.5.Thisisanotherindicationthatconsumerpriceswillgomuchhigherfromthispointon.Iwouldnotbesurprisedtoseegrowthbetween3-4%overthenextfewmonths.
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PricesPaid
Afterindicating5%growthinJanuary,wehavereachedthehighestlevelsince2011at45.9points.Thisindicatesalmost10%higherproducerpricesandshouldbeabigdriverbehindevenhigherconsumerpricesgoingforward.Personally,Ihopethatthismonthisjustanoutliergiventhetremendouspressureoncompaniestocutcoststostaycompetitiveinthisenvironment.Otherthanthat,itisprettyobviousthattheinflationaccelerationcallisworkingoutreallywell.
Conclusion
• OfficialISMlikelytohit60.0inFebruary• USeconomyremainsrocksolidwithsupportfromstrongshipments,newordersandfuturecapitalexpenditures.• Consumerandproducerpricesareverylikelygoingtoacceleratefurther• Morepressureongovernmentbondsandsocalled’yieldtrades’likeconsumerstaples• Companieswillincreasinglyhavetoproducemoreefficientlyinordertostaycompetitiveinthisinflationaccelerationenvironment
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TheEnd
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WantToKnowMoreAboutEconomicIndicators?• Article:EstablishASolidMacroViewUsingTheTop-DownMethod• https://seekingalpha.com/article/4033524-establish-solid-macro-view-using-top-method
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