www.bea.gov

U.S. International Travel Statistics

OECD Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics

Robert E. YuskavageU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

October 4, 2010

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Overview

▪Background on BEA

▪U.S. travel trends

▪U.S. travel definitions

▪ International guidelines: U.S. conformance

▪U.S. methods for travel estimates

▪U.S. improvement efforts

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BEA’s International Statistics

▪ The International Transactions Accounts (ITAs) summarize transactions between U.S. residents and nonresidents, including goods and services

▪ BEA publishes:▪ Quarterly ITAs for the U.S. and 34 countries

and areas▪ Monthly goods and services statistics jointly

with the U.S. Census Bureau▪ Annual services trade statistics between the

U.S. and 49 countries and areas

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Travel and BEA’s Accounts

▪ Exports and imports of travel services are major components of the ITAs

▪ Included in the quarterly gross domestic product statistics in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

▪ Important components of BEA’s Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts

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Relative Size and Trends

▪ Travel exports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services exports in recent years

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Total Exports of Private Services Travel

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Relative Size and Trends

▪ Travel imports account for about 20 percent of total U.S. services imports in recent years

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Total Imports of Private Services Travel

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Relative Size and Trends

▪Travel as a share of total services trade peaked in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s

▪ It was nearly one-third of exports and imports services trade at that time

▪Travel has consistently generated a surplus in the U.S. balance of payments, which peaked at $30 billion in 2008.

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U.S. Travel Receipts - Top Partner Countries

▪ Canada tops the receipts list in 2009, reflecting its proximity to the United States

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Canada Japan United Kingdom Mexico Germany Brazil France Australia China India

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$

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U.S. Travel Payments - Top Partner Countries

▪ Mexico tops the payments list, reflecting proximity and the popularity of its resorts

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Mexico Canada United Kingdom Japan Italy India Germany China France Spain

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U.S. Travel Definitions

▪U.S. ITAs define travel to include purchases of goods and services by▪ U.S. travelers abroad▪ Foreign travelers in the United States

▪A traveler is a person who stays for a period of less than one year in a country of which he or she is not a resident

▪Passenger fare receipts and payments are a separate category in the ITAs

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International Guidelines: U.S. Conformance

▪ International guidelines recommend including expenditures of students and persons who travel abroad for medical care as travel

▪ BEA is considering updating its travel account to conform to these guidelines.

▪ Guidelines also recommend breaking out travel services by business and personal travel

▪ BEA will investigate whether adequate source data are available to provide this breakout.

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U.S. Methods for Travel Estimates

▪ Travel receipts and payments for Mexico and Canada are obtained directly from those countries (mirror data)

▪ For other countries, travel expenditures are the product of number of travelers and average travel expenditures

▪ Counts of foreign travelers to the U.S. and U.S. residents abroad are obtained from U.S. immigration authorities.

▪ Information from the Survey of International Air Travel (SIAT) is used to estimate the average expenditures of travelers by country of origin and destination▪ The SIAT is conducted monthly either in the departure gate

or on-board scheduled flights departing the United States

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Limitations of Methods

▪ Some aspects of the SIAT data limit its effectiveness for the travel account:▪ Foreign visitors departing the United States

may not accurately recall their travel expenditures

▪ U.S. travelers departing the United States may not be able to anticipate their travel expenditures

▪ Sample sizes are small for countries that are less popular destinations for U.S. travelers or that have few travelers to the United States

▪ The surveys cover a variety of travel-related topics, of which travel expenditures is only one

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Limitations of Methods

▪ Some aspects of the traveler counts data limit their effectiveness for the travel account:

▪ Do not identify the purpose of the visit, i.e. whether business or personal

▪ Cover just the initial destination of the traveler

▪ Include some categories of travelers that should be excluded, such as diplomats

▪ Capture citizens rather than residents as recommended by balance of payments accounting guidelines

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U.S. Improvement Efforts

▪ BEA is developing a methodology that combines▪ New data on expenditures using credit, debit,

and charge cards by U.S. travelers abroad and by foreign travelers in the United States with

▪ Information on the portion of total spending that travelers make using these types of cards.

▪ Credit card transactions can provide▪ Accurate data drawn from business records▪ Coverage of a significant portion of spending by

travelers abroad and in the United States▪ Expenditures by country of origin and destination

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New Survey Instruments

▪ The BE-150, Quarterly Survey of Cross-Border Credit, Debit, and Charge Card Transactions

▪ Collects information on the card transactions of U.S. persons traveling abroad and of foreign persons traveling in the United States

▪ The BE-100, Survey of International Travel Expenditures

▪ One-time survey provides a basis for expanding results from the BE-150 survey to reflect transactions using all means of payment

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Evaluation of Results

▪ Preliminary results indicate that the share of expenditures ranges from 35 to 65 percent across countries, with the average exceeding 50 percent

▪ BEA is reviewing the results to assess how best to combine data from the two new surveys

▪ Some issues for further investigation include:▪ Robustness of the share of expenditures by card▪ Variation across origin and destination countries▪ Coverage of transactions conducted by card

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Conclusion

▪ BEA’s current methodology is sound and has worked well over several decades and business cycle conditions

▪ Some limitations of the source data, however, have raised questions about the reliability of the statistics

▪ BEA has taken steps to address these concerns by▪ Obtaining travel expenditures data directly from credit

card companies and

▪ Obtaining information from travelers about their use of cards for travel expenditures

▪ BEA will evaluate how best to incorporate these new data into the official U.S. travel statistics in the balance of payments accounts