us market insight webinar series, nacac
TRANSCRIPT
US MARKET INSIGHT WEBINAR SERIES NACAC: State of College Admission
Tuesday, 25 August 2015
11:00 – 12:00 EDT (16:00 – 17:00 GMT)
Technical support:
Questions for presenters:
2
Agenda
- Introductions
- Key findings – State of College Admission
- Methodology
- High school graduation and college enrollment
- Admission strategies
- Factors in the Admission decision
- School counselors and college counseling
- Transfer students
- International education
- US university case study – George Mason University
- Discussion/Q&A
3
In-session features
a) Attendee List
b) Grab Tab
c) Audio Setup
d) Questions Pane
e) Type questions here
f) Webinar details
4
British Council SIEM USA contacts
TAMSIN THOMAS
Higher Education Manager
STEPHANIE BLOCHINGER
Education Officer
Postgraduate recruitment, alumni engagement, Study
abroad & exchange
CHELSEA BRYAN
Education Coordinator
Postgraduate recruitment, Alumni engagement, Study
abroad & exchange
JENNA HARTSELL
Education Coordinator
Undergraduate recruitment
QU TING ZHENG
Education Coordinator
Conference engagement, market intelligence
5
Education UK Roadshow
(Undergraduate)
Direct marketing services
NAFSA Review 2015 CASE
Europe Conference
Creative Industries
(Postgraduate)
2015 NACAC National
Conference
6
Undergraduate Autumn 2015 and beyond
- Autumn 2015 tour
- Chicago: 24-26 September
- NACAC conference: 1-3 October
- Mid-Atlantic: 25-30 October
- New York & New England: 1 – 5 November
- Education UK Counselor Missions (dates TBA)
- Webinars for US counseling professionals
- Guiding your students through undergraduate admissions to
Medicine in the UK – 17 September
7
Our presenters
National Association for College Admission Counseling
Lindsay Addington
Assistant Director of International Initiatives
Melissa Clinedinst
Associate Director of Research
University speaker: George Mason University (VA)
David Burge
Vice President for Enrollment Management
State of College Admission 2014 Report
Data Sources
• NACAC Annual Surveys – Counseling Trends Survey
– Admission Trends Survey
• External Data – US Department of Education IPEDS Data
– US Census Bureau
– Other Education Organizations
2013 Admission Trends Survey – Surveyed 1,241 NACAC member colleges
• NACAC member colleges represent 66% of all accredited, 4-yr, nonprofit, Title-IV participating colleges in the US that grant bachelors degrees
– Received 352 responses (28% response rate) – Survey respondents larger, on average, compared to all colleges;
public survey respondents had slightly lower acceptance rates 2013 Counseling Trends Survey
– Surveyed NACAC member secondary schools plus random sample of all public high schools (10,000 total)
– 729 usable responses – Survey respondents over-representative of private schools; under-
representative of schools with higher proportions of low-income students
Methodology
High School Graduation and College Enrollment
Number of High School Graduates: Actual and Projected
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
19
75
-76
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77
-78
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-80
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Nu
mb
er o
f st
ud
ents
(th
ou
san
ds)
Note: Includes both public and private high school graduates. Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 210.10).
Peak 3.45 million in 2011-12
Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: 1999–00, 2009–10 and 2023–24
(in thousands)
SOURCE: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2013). Digest of Education Statistics. (Table 219.20).
454
648
861
591 557
727
1,105
740
501
674
1,212
778
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Northeast Midwest South West
1999-00(actual)
2009-10(actual)
2023-24(projected)
College Enrollment Rates of Recent High School Completers, by Gender: 1972 to 2012
SOURCE: Digest of Education Statistics. (2013). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 302.10).
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
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72
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Co
llege
En
rollm
ent
rate
(%
)
October of each year
Males Females
NOTE: Enrollment in college as of October each year for individuals ages 16 to 24 who completed high school during the preceding 12 months. High school completers include both diploma and GED recipients.
Applications to College
Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2013
SOURCE: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Annual The American Freshman reports.
61 60 62 63 62 61 62 61 63 64 67 67 67 70 68 71 71 71 74 75 77 79 77 81
9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 19 22 23 25
29 28 32
0
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Per
cen
tage
of
stu
den
ts
Submitted three or more applications Submitted seven or more applications
Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission: 1996 to 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 1996 - 2013.
53
67 64
73 74 71
74 76
67 73 75 78 75
65
73
64 64 65
32
25 19
16 17 19 18 16
23 20 18 20 18
29
19
26 27 26
15
8 14
11 9 10 8 8 10 7 7 3
7 7 8 10 9 9 0
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Per
cen
tage
of
colle
ges
Number of applicationsincreased
Number of applicationsdecreased
Number of applicationsstayed the same
Trends in Average Acceptance Rate at Four-Year Colleges
69.6
71.4 70.7
71.4
69.8
67.9 68.1
66.5 66.5 66.0
67.1
68.7
69.7 69.0
68.2
67.2 66.3 66.5
65.8
63.7 63.7 63.0 62.8
63.2
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Public Private
Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Trends in Average Yield Rate at Four-Year Colleges
51.4 50.6
49.1 48.9
47.5 48.4
46.2
42.9 42.9 42.6 41.3
39.7
47.8
45.7 45.5 44.2 43.8 44.2
43.3
38.4 38.4
36.4 35.4
34.3
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Public Private
Note: The list of colleges was drawn from the 2002-2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) using the online IPEDS Data Center. For each year of data, institutions were selected using the following criteria: US location, four-year, not-for-profit, baccalaureate degree-granting, and Title-IV participating. Institutions that indicated having open admission policies were then excluded. Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2011-12). US Department of Education, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Admission Strategies
Percentage of Colleges Using Early Admission
Strategies and Wait Lists: Fall 2013
Early Decision
Early Action Wait List
Total 18.3% 32.4% 42.6%
Control
Public 8.9 26.7 35.6
Private 22.9 35.1 45.8
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Percentage of Colleges Reporting Increases in Early Applications
43
37
58 63
49 49 47
38
55 50
56
68
56
80
70
81
65
74 72
62
69
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Early Decision Early Action
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Mean
Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision
8.1%
Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate)
64.0
Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision
53.2
Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate)
86.6
Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges 31.6
Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Mean
Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action
42.4%
Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate)
66.7
Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Action
65.0
Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate)
29.1
Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges 27.9
Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2013
Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2013
Mean Percent Admitted
Total 30.5%
Control
Public 35.2
Private 28.9
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 16.3
50 to 70% 34.5
71 to 85% 46.2
More than 85% --
-- Category included only one institution. NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Factors in the Admission Decision
Factor
Considerable importance
Moderate importance
Limited importance
No importance
Grades in college prep courses 81.5% 10.4% 7.4% 0.7%
Strength of curriculum 63.7 24.8 8.1 3.3
Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) 58.3 29.5 10.0 2.2
Grades in all courses 51.5 37.4 8.9 2.2
Essay or writing sample 22.2 37.8 22.6 17.4
Student’s demonstrated interest 20.1 34.0 23.9 22.0
Counselor recommendation 15.9 43.9 24.7 15.5
Teacher recommendation 15.2 35.3 33.5 16.0
Class rank 14.1 43.9 28.3 13.8
Extracurricular activities 9.6 40.6 33.9 15.9
Interview 7.8 21.2 27.9 43.1
Portfolio 7.5 30.6 32.5 29.5
Subject test scores (AP, IB) 6.4 9.4 34.3 49.8
SAT II scores 6.0 10.9 23.7 59.4
State graduation exam scores 3.4 10.1 28.4 58.2
Work 2.6 17.1 51.3 29.0
Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2013
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
0
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Per
cen
tage
of
colle
ges
Demonstrated Interest
Essay
Class rank
Admission test scores
Grades in all courses
Differences Among Institutions in Admission Factor Rating
Public vs. Private
Private: Essay/writing sample, interview, counselor and teacher
recommendations, extracurricular activities, portfolios, and
demonstrated interest
Enrollment Size
Smaller: Interview, counselor and teacher recommendations,
demonstrated interest, portfolios, and state graduation exam
scores
Selectivity
More Selective: Similar criteria to private and smaller institutions,
in addition to strength of curriculum, work, subject test scores (AP
and IB) and SAT II scores
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
School Counselors and College Counseling
Students Per Counselor at Public Schools
SOURCES: Common Core of Data. Elementary/Secondary Information System (ELSi) tableGenerator. (2011-12) US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2013. .
• In 2011-12, each public school counselor responsible for 475 students, on average
• Five states with ratios higher than 700 students per counselor: AZ, CA, MN, MI, UT
• Counseling Trends Survey data indicate that ratios are higher at public schools
Percentage of Time on College Counseling
Private Schools
52.2
13.2
13.3
9.2
[VALUE].8
4.8 [VALUE].5
Public Schools
23.5
23.5
[VALUE]
14.7
6.5
4.4 [VALUE].5
Collegecounseling
High schoolcourses
Personal needs
Testing
Job counseling
Teaching
SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2013.
Transfer Students
Freshman Apps per Transfer App
Freshman Admits per Transfer Admit
Total 11.6 14.1
Public 5.3 5.4
Private 14.8 18.3
Mean Freshman to Transfer Ratios at Four-Year Colleges: 2012-13
Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013
Transfer Acceptance
Rate
Freshman Acceptance
Rate
Transfer Yield Freshman Yield
Total 62.6 64.7 54.4 32.7
Public 67.7 66.2 61.1 37.2
Private 60.0 64.1 51.3 30.7
Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013
Comparison of Freshman and Transfer Admission Statistics at Four-Year Colleges: 2012-13
More Important Stay the Same Less Important
Total 57.9% 40.5% 1.6%
Public 67.1 31.7 1.2
Private 53.5 44.7 1.8
Four-Year Colleges’ Expectations About Importance of Transfer Recruitment Over Next 3 Years
Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013
Mean Percentage of Newly Enrolled Transfer Students at Four-Year Colleges who Transferred from a Two-Year Institution: 2012-13
Mean
Total 53.2%
Control
Public 66.0
Private 48.3
Total Enrollment
Fewer than 3,000 students 48.2
3,000 to 9,999 56.4
10,000 or more 64.4
Transfer Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50 percent of applicants 43.8
50 to 70 percent 53.3
71 to 85 percent 64.9
More than 85 percent 56.7
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
Transfer Student Recruitment Strategies: 2013
45.2
57.9
67.5
80.2
[VALUE]
96.8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Lead generation
Tailored campus visit programs or visit days
Recruitment events at community colleges
Partnerships with community colleges
College fairs
Information on website
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2013.
International Education
• US is top host country of internationally mobile students at the secondary and tertiary levels.
• More US citizens pursuing full undergraduate degrees abroad.
• Admission officers need to become more globally-focused and knowledgeable to advance in the profession(NACAC Career Paths); same is true for college counselors
US College Counseling and Admission in a Global Context
• In 2013, 48,632 international students were enrolled for a full diploma
International Students at US High Schools
Top countries of origin: • China (32.3%) • South Korea (12%) • Germany (9.8%) • Mexico (3.6%) • Brazil (3.1%)
Top host states: • California (17.6%) • New York (7.8%) • Florida (7.6%) • Massachusetts (7.2%) • Pennsylvania (6.3%)
• Majority (95%) of international students attend private institutions, though efforts increasing at public schools
• Agency-based recruitment was the most prevalent method of recruitment among schools that actively recruit.
376
368
296
290
285
274 235
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Chicago Ft. Lauderdale Minnesota Batlimore Seattle Indiannapolis Baton Rouge
NACAC College Fairs – Fall 2014
Domestic International
International Students at NACAC College Fairs
• Counselors underprepared to work with this growing population • 79% of US counselors felt either “slightly” or “not at all” prepared to
advise international students on financial aid opportunities.
• 69% of US counselors felt either “slightly” or “not at all” prepared to advise international students on taking an English proficiency exam.
• US high schools becoming a source of international
applicants • Are domestic recruiters trained to work with international students?
• How are students being perceived? Evaluated?
Impact on Counseling and Admission
• In 2013-14, 370,724 international students were pursuing UG degrees.
• Majority (65%) of international students attend public institutions, and in 2013-14 70% of students attended just 200 US institutions.
• Agency-based recruitment is occurring at approximately 20% of US institutions
Top countries of origin [UG]: • China (29.8%) • South Korea (9.98%) • Saudi Arabia (7.25%) • Canada (3.75%) • India (3.42%)
Top host states [UG & Grad]: • California (13.73%) • New York (11.2%) • Texas (7.3%) • Massachusetts (5.8%) • Illinois (4.8% percent)
International Students at US Universities
• Retention – campus readiness
• Integration/Engagement
• Budget/Revenue
• Capacity/Displacement
Impact on US Universities
• In 2011-12, 46,500 US students were pursuing degrees abroad; 42% at UG level.
• Top desination countries [UG]: • UK • Canada • New Zealand • France • China • Australia
• Humanities and social sciences were the most popular disciplines studied
US Students Pursuing Degrees Abroad
• Counselors underprepared to work with this growing population • 79% of US counselors felt either “slightly” or “not at all”
prepared to provide information on pursuing degrees abroad.
• 91% of US counselors felt either “slightly” or “not at all” prepared to assist US students with using federal financial aid to attend university abroad.
• Source of competition and collaboration for US institutions.
Impact on Counseling and Admission
• Pathway programs and conditional admission •Government-sponsored outbound mobility
programs • English-medium degree programs in non-
Anglophone countries • Increased capacity in-country •Other countries’ student recruitment efforts
Trends to Watch
University speaker:
David Burge
Vice President for Enrollment
Management
Questions?
51
Save the date! DATE &TIME DESCRIPTION
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NAFSA conference and SAE policy discussion
For more details: www.siem.britishcouncil.org & [email protected]