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US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding Evaporation, Runoff, 500 Geopotential Height, T2m(min), T2m(max) – CPC Web Site Updates (Probabilistic) – BAMS Draft in Preparation – Establishing “Application” Collaborations • Florida, Texas • Phase II (August 2012) – Leveraging and Enabling Collaborations – Began 1 August 2012 – Multi-Agency Support – Enhancements – Model Updates – NCAR Data Server (Up by December 1)

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Page 1: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing)

– Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating

– Adding Evaporation, Runoff, 500 Geopotential Height, T2m(min), T2m(max)

– CPC Web Site Updates (Probabilistic) – BAMS Draft in Preparation – Establishing “Application” Collaborations

• Florida, Texas

• Phase II (August 2012) – Leveraging and Enabling Collaborations – Began 1 August 2012 – Multi-Agency Support – Enhancements – Model Updates – NCAR Data Server (Up by December 1)

Page 2: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 3: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 4: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

• http://iri.columbia.edu/~shuhua/mis-html/Reliability_nmme.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/~shuhua/mis-html/Reliability_nmme.html
Page 5: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 6: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

July 1 start DJF SST forecast RPSS

NMME

CFSv2

Page 7: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

July 1 start DJF prec forecast RPSS

NMME

CFSv2

Page 8: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

Jan 1 start JJA prec forecast RPSS

NMME

CFSv2

Page 9: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

CPC Seasonal Prognostic Map Discussion (PMD): “PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS OUTLOOKS FOR JFM THROUGH AMJ 2012 WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON THE NEW NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST (NMME). THE FORECASTS STRONGLY AGREE WITH …”

Page 10: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

Phase 2 NMME

• Continue Experimental Real-Time Predictions

• Enhancing Current NMME Capability – Model Updates: GFDL-CM2.5 (20 km AGCM),

CCSM4, CESM1 • Assess Forecast Quality

– MME Combinations, Model Independence • Sub-Seasonal Assessment

– Forecast Protocol • Improved Data Distribution

– NCAR To Host

Page 11: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

May Initial Conditions 3-Months Lead

Improved Correlation Due to Model Improvement

Page 12: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

May Initial Conditions 3-Months Lead

Improved Correlation Due to Model Improvement and Better Initial Condition?

Page 13: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 14: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 15: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 16: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding
Page 17: US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble · US National ISI Multi-Model Ensemble • Phase I (Continuing) – Added CMC (2 Models), IRI Models Discontinued, GSFC – Updating – Adding

Major Issues

• Getting Data Into NCAR Server • Getting Results From NCAR Server

– Don’t Want to Repeat the CMIP5 Experience

• Prediction and Predictability Research • How to Complete the Transition to

Operations? – Continuing to Update the NMME Models


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