us nuclear policy in a changing political environment washington office craig piercy ans washington...
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US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment
US Nuclear Policy in a Changing Political Environment
Washington OfficeWashington Office
Craig PiercyANS Washington Representative
November 20, 2008
“The Monster”A Pessimist’s View
Obama on Nuclear
“I start off with the premise that nuclear energy is not optimal. I am not a nuclear energy proponent.”
Remarks at Town Hall Event, Newton, IA, 12/30/07
What is “safe nuclear power?”
• Containment structures hardened against aircraft impact?
• All spent fuel in dry cask storage?
• More guards, bigger guns?
• Additional fire protection, etc.
Obama on Yucca Mountain
“The selection of Yucca Mountain has failed, the time for debate on this site is over, and it is time to start exploring new alternatives for safe, long-term solutions based on sound science. .”
October 2007 Letter to Sens. Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer
NRC Commissioners
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Svinicki (R)
Jaczko (D)
Lyons (R)
McGaffigan (D)
Klein (R)
*Vertical lines are June 30th of each year
President Obama
Co
mm
issi
on
er
More bad news…• Financial/credit crisis continues…• Waxman ousts Dingell from House Energy and
Commerce Cmte. Chair.• Nuclear approps battles ahead• Senate close to 60 vote supermajority• Loan guarantees delayed/uncertain• Enviro groups challenging NRC DC/COL
processes: North Anna (VA), Victoria (TX), Harris (NC).
• Waste confidence/standard contract?
The US nuclear moratorium1978 last nuclear plant order in US1979 last 2 construction permits issued1993 last operating license issued1995 last 2 orders cancelled
259 Reactors ordered124 Cancelled orders132 Operating licenses issued 28 Plants shut down104 Operating plants today 36 Nuclear Engineering programs terminated
No geological repositoryNo commercial recycling
Access to energy = quality of life
4,000 8,000 12,000
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
0.3
1.0
India
China
Pakistan
Russia
GermanyAustralia
Canada
UKFrance Japan
U.S.
0.6
80% of the world’s population is below 0.8 on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI)
Pessimist’s ViewAssumptions:• Yucca derailed.• Hopes trump realities on climate legislation.• Hill/DOE Bias against federal financial
assistance for new builds.• Risk averse/interventionalist NRC
Result:• 5-10 year delay for new plants.
“The Birds”An Optimist’s View
People are OK with nuclear power…
24
74
49
46
20
40
60
80
1983 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 Apr-2008
Sep-2008
Favor Oppose
Bisconti Research with GfK
… and think we should build more plants
69
47
29
49
0
20
40
60
80
Jun-9
8
Oct
-99
Jan-0
1
Mar
-01
Jul-0
1
Oct
-01
Feb-0
2
Jun-0
2
Oct
-02
May
-03
Oct
-03
Apr-04
Oct
-04
May
-05
Mar
-06
Sep-0
6
Apr-07
Oct
-07
Apr-08
Sep-0
8
Agree Disagree
Bisconti Research with GfK
Obama’s latest comment on nuclear
“We will establish strong annual targets that set us on a course to reduce emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them an additional 80% by 2050.
“Further, we will invest $15 billion each year to catalyze private sector efforts to build a clean energy future. We will invest in solar power, wind power, and next generation biofuels. We will tap nuclear power, while making sure it’s safe. And we will develop clean coal technologies. .” (emphasis added)
Address to the Governors' Global Climate SummitNovember 18, 2008
The Climate is Warming
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WI ND
BI OMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OI L
COAL
LI GNI TE
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WI ND
BI OMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OI L
COAL
LI GNI TE
GHGgCeq/kWh
Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005
low carbon
EPRI PRISM Report
What about the nuclear waste ? “3 yards and no cloud of dust”
Optimist’s View
Assumptions:• Tacit understanding that nuclear
expansion is critical to carbon control.• “Do No Harm” approach to licensing
regulation and finance.• Loan guarantee availability.Result:• Slow initial growth, followed by
acceleration.
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Really smart people with reasonable funding can do just about anything that doesn't violate too many of Newton's Laws!”
— Alan Kay
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses
— Henry Ford
Resources
• www.ans.org
• www.nuclearadvocacynetwork.org/
• neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/