us p3 market summary
TRANSCRIPT
US P3 market summary
October 2020InframationDeals
21
24
4
23
14
6
11
30
9
1213
9
14
10
14
12
5
15
5
2
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
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12
CA
NA
DA
UN
ITE
DK
ING
DO
M
US
A
CA
NA
DA
UN
ITE
DK
ING
DO
M
US
A
CA
NA
DA
UN
ITE
DK
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DO
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US
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CA
NA
DA
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US
A
CA
NA
DA
UN
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US
A
CA
NA
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US
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
US
Dbn
Nu
mb
er o
f de
als
P3 country comparison (M&A, greenfield and refinancing) – since 2014
FY19 Market size: USD 93.56bn
FY18 Market size: USD 94.21bn
CountryRank
1H20
Deal
Value
(USDbn)
Deal
Count
USA 1 10.03 10
IRELAND 2 4.44 1
GERMANY 3 3.96 7
FRANCE 4 1.14 9
BANGLADESH 5 1.13 1
KUWAIT 6 1.00 1
CANADA 7 0.99 2
COLOMBIA 8 0.89 2
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES9 0.81 1
YTD
4
6
9 9
1415
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 2020
Nu
mb
er
of d
ea
ls
US
D b
n
Renewables Power Environment EnergyTelecommunications Transport Social Infrastructure Number of deals
US P3 historic activityIn 2019, the US positioned itself as eleventh in the world ranking by deal value for greenfield P3s.
Eight greenfield P3 deals reached financial close with a total value of USD 1.68bn. Deal value was
lower than in 2018 (USD 5.33bn), when the US positioned itself third in the world ranking. However, as
of 1H20, US now ranks number one in greenfield P3 deal value.
FY18 Greenfield P3: World Market size USD 53.18bn – US Market size USD 5.33bn
FY19 Greenfield P3: World Market size USD 56.45bn – US Market size USD 1.68bn
1H20 Greenfield P3: World Market size USD 28.76bn – US Market size USD 10.03bn
USD 1.5bn University of Iowa Utility System (O&M)
Financial close : March 2020
Equity: : USD 570m, ENGIE (50%),
Meridiam (50%)
Financing: USD 870m (USD 612m private
placement and USD 258 capex facility)
Delivery Model: OM
P3 greenfield projects that closed in 2020
USD 340m Miami-Dade Civil and Probate Courthouse
Financial Close: January 2020
Equity: USD 30m – Plenary NA
Financing: USD 310m Private Placement
Delivery Model: DBFOM
USD 260.9mGilcrease Expressway
Financial Close : January 2020
Equity: Duit Construction (50%), Shimmick
Construction (50%)
Financing: USD 125m in PABs
Delivery Model: BF
USD 157mNew London Harbor Energy Center
Financial close : March 2020
Equity: Ørsted US Offshore Wind,
Eversource Energy, Gateway Terminal
Delivery Model: N/A
USD 125mUniversity of Washington District Station
Building
Financial close : January 2020
Equity: LPC West
Delivery model: N/A
Bowie State University Mixed-Use
Facility
Financial close : March 2020
Equity: Balfour Beatty
Delivery model: N/A
Santa Rosa Junior College Student
Housing
Financial close : March 2020
Equity: Servitas
Delivery model: DBFOM
University of Oregon Eugene
Campus Student Housing
Financial close: September 2020
Equity: Star America/Greystar
Delivery model: N/A
USD 7.3bn JFK Terminal One Expansion
Financial close : June 2020
Equity: Carlyle, JLC, Ullico
Financing: USD 4.1bn term loan, USD
2.7bn equity bridge loan, USD 500m private
placement, USD 300m ancillary credit facility
Delivery Model: N/A
USD 352m Lincoln South Beltway Highway
Financial Close: April 2020
Equity: Hawkins Construction
Financing: USD 237m tax exempt revenue
bonds
Delivery Model: DBF
USD 100mCrystal City Metrorail Station Second
Entrance
Financial close : July 2020
Equity: JBG Smith Properties
Delivery model: N/A
USD 44.4mSan Marcos Public Services Complex
Financial close : September 2020
Equity: Amber Infrastructure, Hunt
Development
Delivery model: N/A
USD 22.6mLincoln Garage and RiverWalk
Financial close : August 2020
Equity: Amber Infrastructure, Hunt
Development
Delivery model: DBFOM
What’s next?
P3 deal pipeline
Project UpdateDate Of
Update
West LA Courthouse
and Civic Center
Financial advisors
hired
September
2020
Wilkes-Barre I-81
Reconstruction
PennDOT
announces industry
forum
August
2020
Michigan
Autonomous Vehicle
Corridor
Sidewalk Infra
Partners awarded
DBF contract
August
2020
I-285/I-20 East
Interchange
GDOT issues the
request for
qualifications
July 2020
Delaware River
Bridge
Placed on hold for
reevaluation of
COVID-19 impacts
April 2020
Route 146 Fiber-Optic
Monetization
RIDOT applies for
INFRA grant
February
2020
University of Alabama
Campus Utility
System
Barclays hired as
financial advisor
February
2020
Georgia Interstate
Broadband
Deployment
Project cancelled,
being reevaluated
March
2019
Recent procurement updates
Social infrastructure deep dive
Project State Current status Deal value
Downtown Edmond Mixed-Use
DevelopmentOklahoma
Expressions of
InterestN/A
Indianapolis Airport Hotel
DevelopmentIndiana
Expressions of
InterestN/A
LA Sidewalk and Transit
Amenities Program (STAP)California
Expressions of
InterestN/A
Miami-Dade Dolphin Station
TODFlorida RFP Returned N/A
Rochester (Minnesota) West
Transit VillageMinnesota
Preferred
ProponentN/A
Charlotte Gateway StationNorth
Carolina
Preferred
ProponentUSD 90m
Significant Transit-oriented P3 developments (TODs): Projects that include mixed-use development, including
commercial, office space and residential in mass transit areas
Broadband/Internet P3s
Broadband/Internet
7%
Other60%
TOD13%
University20%
Project State Current status Deal value
Estes Park Broadband
(Colorado)Colorado
Expressions of
InterestUSD 20m
Gilbert Fiber-Optic Network Arizona RFP Returned N/A
Inglewood Broadband P3 CaliforniaTransaction
LaunchN/A
Massachusetts WiFi Access P3Massachus
etts
Transaction
LaunchN/A
North Carolina Rural Broadband
P3
North
Carolina
Shortlisted
ProponentsN/A
Seattle Wireless Internet ProjectWashingto
n
Expressions of
InterestN/A
West Des Moines FTTH
Network P3Iowa
Preferred
ProponentUSD 40m
Projects in the following sectors have been on the rise in the past years. Since the COVID-19 pandemic sent many to work from home, broadband/internet P3 projects have increased due to the importance of widespread coverage. TODs have recently peaked developer interest as they include commercial, retail and residential investment opportunities. University P3 projects have been credited for their success and short lengths in procurement.
Overview
Social infrastructure projects in procurement by sector:
Social infrastructure deep dive (cont.)
Project State StatusDeal value
(USDm)
Cleveland State University Parking P3 Ohio Shortlisted Proponents -
Fresno State University Central Heating and Cooling Plant Modernization P3 California RFP Returned 130
Illinois State University (ISU) Student Housing P3 Illinois Preferred Proponent 100
Institute for Digital Innovation Arlington Campus P3 Virginia Shortlisted Proponents -
Lake Superior State University (LSSU) Housing P3 Michigan Preferred Proponent 30
Louisiana State University (LSU) Central Utility Plant P3 Louisiana Expressions of Interest -
New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) Mixed-Use Student Housing P3 New Jersey Transaction Launch -
North Carolina Central University Housing P3 North Carolina Transaction Launch -
North Carolina State University Division I NCAA Athletics Program North Carolina RFQ returned -
Sam Houston State University Innovation Plaza P3 Texas Preferred Proponent 30
Texas A&M Medical Building & Student Housing P3 Texas Preferred Proponent 546
Texas A&M University Data Center P3 Texas Transaction Launch -
UND Mixed-use Stadium P3 North Dakota Transaction Launch -
University of Hawaii Rental Housing P3 Hawaii Preferred Proponent 110
University of Idaho On-Campus Utility System P3 Idaho Shortlisted Proponents 200
University of Maryland Power Plant Renewal Project P3 Maryland RFQ returned -
University of Minnesota Rochester Campus P3 Minnesota Transaction Launch -
University of North Dakota Mixed Use Space P3 North Dakota Preferred Proponent 130
University of North Texas Energy Conservation P3 Texas RFQ returned -
University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez Campus Facilities P3 Puerto Rico RFP Returned -
University of Southern Maine Residential housing P3 Maine Preferred Proponent 100
UNTS Potential Accomodations P3 Texas Transaction Launch -
University procurements:
University P3 projects that have closed since 2018Santa Rosa Junior College
Student Housing
Financial close: March 2020
Equity provider: Servitas
Deal value: N/A
Delivery model: DBFOM
Bowie State University Mixed-
Use Facility
Financial close: March 2020
Equity provider: Balfour Beatty
Deal value: N/A
Delivery model: N/A
University of Texas at Dallas-
Northside Phase 4
Financial close: Dec 2019
Equity provider: Star America
Deal value: N/A
Delivery model: N/A
Arizona State University
Student Housing
Financial close: Dec 2019
Equity provider:
Capstone
Deal value: USD 118m
Delivery model: N/A
Michigan State University
GRRC
Financial close: Dec 2019
Equity provider: Health
Innovation Partners
Deal value: USD 85m
Delivery model: N/A
University of South Carolina
Campus Village
Financial close: Oct 2019
Equity provider: EdR Student
Housing
Deal value: USD 460m
Delivery model: DBFOM
University of Texas Dallas-
Northside Phase 3
Financial close: July 2019
Equity provider: Star America
Deal value: USD 38m
Delivery model: N/A
University of Notre Dame
Family-Focused Housing
Financial close: March 2019
Equity provider: Corvias
Deal value: USD 25m
Delivery model: DBFOM
University of NC Wilmington On-
Campus Student Housing
Financial close: Jan 2019
Equity provider: Balfour Beatty
Deal value: USD 144m
Delivery model: N/A
Purdue University Student
Housing
Financial close: Oct 2018
Equity provider: Plenary
Deal value: USD 125m
Delivery model: DBFOM
Western Carolina University
On-Campus Student Housing
Financial close: Sept 2018
Equity provider: Zimmer
Deal value: N/A
Delivery model: DBFO
Delaware State University
Student Housing
Financial close: June 2018
Equity provider: American
Campus Communities
Deal value: N/A
Delivery model: DBFOM
University of Washington
District Station Building
Financial close: Jan 2020
Equity provider: LPC West
Deal value: 125m
Delivery model: N/A
Texas Woman's University
Student Housing
Financial close: April 2018
Equity provider: Balfour
Beatty
Deal value: USD 75.5m
Delivery model: DBFOM
University of Oregon Eugene
Campus Student Housing
Financial close: September
2020
Equity provider: Star
America/Greystar
Delivery model: N/A
Procurement models (since 2014)
BF2%
DBF7%
DBFM7%
DBFO9%
DBFOM71%
DFOM2%
OM2%
US P3 Market:Global P3 Market:
Top grantors in US greenfield market by State*
Potential pipeline of 149 projects (from EOI to Shortlisted proponents):
Other
California
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New York
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Texas
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Number of deals
Pipeline of 45 projects (at preferred proponent):
*since 2014
Other
California
Florida
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan
New York
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Texas
Virginia
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Number of deals
P3 projects expected to come operational
I-95 HOV/HOT Lanes
FC Date: 7/31/2012
I-495 Capital Beltway HOT LaneFC Date: 12/21/2007
IH-635 - LBJ FreewayFC Date: 6/22/2010
Denver FasTracks Eagle P3 (all phases)FC Date: 8/12/2010
North Tarrant Expressway Segments 3A and 3BFC Date: 9/19/2013
Southern Ohio Veterans Highway (Portsmouth Bypass)FC Date: 4/9/2015
SH 288 P3FC Date: 5/9/2016
LaGuardia Airport Terminal B Building P3FC Date: 6/1/2016
Transform 66 P3 (Outside the Beltway I-66)FC Date: 11/9/2017
Michigan I-75 ModernizationFC Date: 11/20/2018
Carlsbad Seawater Desalination PlantFC Date: 12/13/2012
North Tarrant ExpresswayFC Date: 11/25/2009
I-77 HOT Lanes (partial)FC Date: 5/20/2015
Denver Airport Great Hall (Jeppesen Terminal) FC Date: 12/21/2017
Colorado I-70 EastFC Date: 12/21/2017
Purple Line P3FC Date: 6/17/2016
I-395 P3 FC Date: 7/25/2017
2013 20152014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Operational ProjectsProject NameFinancial Close Date
Expected Operational ProjectsProject Name
Financial Close Date
I-95 Fredericksburg ExtensionFC Date: 7/25/2019
Denver FasTracks Eagle (Phase One)FC Date: 8/12/2010
Elizabeth River Tunnels
FC Date: 4/13/2012
Lewis & Clark Bridge
FC Date: 3/28/2013
PA Rapid Bridge ReplacementFC Date: 3/18/2015
LAX APMFC Date: 6/08/2018
North Tarrant ExpresswaySegment 3CFC Date: 8/08/2019
Gilcrease Expressway WestFC Date: 1/30/2020
Goethals BridgeFC Date: 11/08/2013
Brightline Virgin Trains(South Segment)FC Date: 4/18/2019
With the Covid-19 pandemic, States face a projected 30% drop in gas tax and
transportation-related revenue through the next 12 to 18 months, according to the
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). Decline
in sales tax and gas tax revenues is likely to reflect in FY 2021 budgets.
P3s after Covid-19
Uncertainty about demand-
risk revenues from transit
and toll road projects might
lead to an increase in
availability-based payment
structures.
US P3 historic debt
Bank debt providers by deal value YTD 2016
Rank Company Value (USD m) Deals (#)
1Sumitomo Mitsui Banking
Corporation (SMBC)794 8
2=Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
(MUFG & BTMU)3,627 7
2=Canadian Imperial Bank of
Commerce (CIBC)488 7
4 ING Group (ING) 536 5
5 Santander 604 4
6National Bank of Canada (NBC
/ NBF)264 3
Bond Arrangers by deal count YTD 2016
Rank Company Value (USD m) Deals (#)
1 JP Morgan 1,813 8
2= Citigroup 2,956 7
2= Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) 2,264 7
4Bank of America (BofA
Securities)1,803 6
5= Barclays 2,382 5
5= Goldman Sachs 781 5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TIFIA Private placement PABs Bank Debt
US
D m
YTD
*JFK Terminal One
financing included a
USD 4.1bn term
loan, USD 2.7bn
equity bridge loan
and a USD 300m
ancillary credit
facility
Private activity bonds (PABs) closed since 2016 Project
Amount at
issuance*Coupon Maturity Date Price/Yield Issuance date Trade activity**
SH 288 USD 95.7m 5% 12/31/2055 108.5%/3.9% 5/9/2016
Purple Line USD 100m 5% 3/31/2024 116%/1.9% 6/17/2016
LaGuardia Airport Terminal
BUSD 633m 5.25% 1/1/2050 113%/3% 6/1/2016
Colorado I-70 East USD 60.1m 4% 6/30/2051 101.9%/3.8% 12/21/2017
Denver Airport Great Hall
(Jeppesen Terminal)USD 131.8m 5% 9/30/2049 113%/3% 12/21/2017
I-395 (Virginia) USD 126m 5% 1/1/2040 107.5%/3% 7/25/2017
Michigan I-75
ModernizationUSD 153m 5% 12/31/2043 104%/4% 11/20/2018
LAX Automated People
MoverUSD 353.4m 5% 12/31/2043 112%/3.5% 6/8/2018
Brightline-Virgin Trains All
AboardUSD 1bn 6.5% 1/1/2049 100%/6.5% 4/18/2019
Fredericksburg Extension USD 183.4m 5% 7/1/2049 105.6%/2.5% 7/25/2019
North Tarrant Expressway
Segment 3CUSD 653.8m 5% 6/30/2058 114.7%/3% 8/8/2019
Gilcrease Expressway USD 125m 1.6% 7/6/2023 100%/1.6% 1/30/2020
*facility with highest amount recorded was chosen**percent of price sold over time since issuance date, red line marks 1 March 2020, if there was trading activity since then
➢ In 2016, Trump proposed creating a central role for private investment and potentially public-private partnerships. Wilbur Ross and
Peter Navarro, released a proposal to incentivize the private sector to invest in projects including P3s. However, Trump dialed back
his support for P3s, saying they were “more trouble than they were worth.”
➢ In February 2018, Trump released an 200bn plan in federal funds to spur USD 1.5trn worth of infrastructure investment over ten
years – some from private sources. The plan failed in Congress, receiving criticism that more funding was required.
➢ In April 2019, President Trump, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi introduced a new
USD 2trn proposal to upgrade US infrastructure.
➢ The plan collapsed in May 2019 after Trump said that an agreement on an infrastructure plan could not be reached until Democrats
end investigations on his administration over allegations of collusion with Russian meddling in the 2016 elections.
➢ On 1 April 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump agreed that a new
emergency relief package should prioritize infrastructure investment.
➢ On 12 May, House Democrats introduced a USD 3trn coronavirus relief package, known as Heroes Act. 30.7 bn of the package
would go to highway and transit agencies and broadband initiatives. On 15 May the House of Representatives passes the relief
package, which is however unlikely to pass a vote in the Senate, facing strong Republican opposition.
➢ On June 19, House Democrats issued a USD 1.5 trillion infra plan which included an increase in private activity bonds (PABs). The
house passed the plan on 1 July.
➢ In early July, Senators Roger Wicker and Michael Bennet proposed legislation to create direct-pay taxable municipal bonds called
American Infrastructure Bonds (AIBs), which would build on the Build America Bonds (BABs) by increasing flexibility.
➢ Later in July, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his “Build Back Better” USD 2trn infra plan, leaving out P3s.
➢ The upcoming November 2020 elections leave the future of infrastructure funding legislation uncertain.
Infrastructure Plan
Trump promises
infra bill
Infra bill
released
Nov 2016 Feb 2018
USD 2trn
plan introduced
April 2019 May 2019
Plan
collapses
April 2020
Covid-19 pandemic
revives talks
June 2020
House Dems pass
USD 1.5trn plan
July 2020
Biden releases
USD 2trn infra plan
Origin Rank Global Rank Company Value (USD m) Deals (#)
1 3 KPMG 8,038 10/224
2= 1 EY 6,330 7/291
2= 2 Macquarie 4,904 7/262
4 5 Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) 3,627 6/183
5= 24Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
(MUFG & BTMU)16,286 5/51
5= 11 Barclays 7,692 5/109
7= 8 Citigroup 11,349 4/124
7= 16= Evercore 1,878 4/83
9= 61= Agentis Capital 5,544 3/19
9= 37= Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4,118 3/34
9= 80= PJ Solomon 1,184 3/13
9= 73= KeyBank Debt and Capital Markets 411 3/16
Financial advisors since 2016
US P3 advisors
US P3 advisors
Origin Rank Global Rank Company Value (USD m) Deals (#)
1 42 Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher 8,535 11/63
2= 161= Nossaman 10,075 8/11
2= 2 Norton Rose Fulbright 8,118 8/543
2= 49= Greenberg Traurig Law (GT Law) 5,759 8/51
5= 3 Allen & Overy (A&O) 14,725 7/464
5= - Hawkins Delafield & Wood 9,072 7/7
5= 11 Ashurst 7,372 7/242
5= 5 White & Case (W&C) 4,649 7/341
9= 13 Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe 19,793 6/213
9= 8 Milbank 13,712 6/296
9= 38 Mayer Brown 2,509 6/71
Legal advisors since 2016
US P3 advisors
Origin Rank Global Rank Company Value (USD m) Deals (#)
1 12 BTY Group 13,008 14/52
2 5 Steer 17,621 9/91
3 7Jacobs Engineering Group
(formerly LeighFisher)7,507 8/64
4= 9 WSP 6,909 5/61
4= 19= Altus Group 3,463 5/28
6= 13 Infrata 15,964 4/48
6= 22 Stantec 2,529 4/25
6= 2 Arup 2,412 4/177
9= 16 AECOM 9,233 3/36
9= 28= Turner & Townsend 4,383 3/16
Technical advisors since 2016
Managing Director
Jonathan Goor
+44 20 3741 1262
Managing Editor
Thomas Williams
+44 20 37 41 1272
Global Head of Research
Dermot McCloskey
+44 20 3741 12 55\
Head of Research, US and Canada
Melis Ogutcu
+1 212 500 7548
Head of Sale Americas
Brett Birman
+1 212 686 3015
Editor Americas
Jon Berke
+1 212 686 2741