u.s. population projections: 2012 to 2060forcpgm/ortman.pdf · u.s. population projections: 2012 to...

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060

Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting

Washington, DCFebruary 7, 2013

Jennifer M. OrtmanPopulation Division


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


2012 National Projections

• First series based on the 2010 Census• Projections of the U.S. population by age,

sex, race, and Hispanic origin• Covers the period from 2012 to 2060

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Overview

• Methodology and assumptions– Mortality– Fertility– Net International Migration

• Highlights from the results

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Making Population Projections

Starting Population

Birthsand

Immigrants

Deathsand

EmigrantsFuture

Population

4


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Mortality Projections

• One series of mortality projections• Three race and Hispanic origin groups

– Non-Hispanic White and Asian or Pacific Islander (API)

– Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)

– Hispanic

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Note: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combined category is used due to the lack of historical data for the current categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander.


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Mortality Projection Methodology

• Life expectancy at birth is projected for each group to 2060– Hispanic life expectancy is projected to

converge to the rate projected for the non-Hispanic White and API population in 2035

• Use Coale-Demeny West model life table to convert life expectancy projections to age-specific mortality rates

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


7

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059

Male Non‐HispanicWhite and API

Male Non‐HispanicBlack and AIAN

Male Hispanic

Female Non‐HispanicWhite and API

Female Non‐HispanicBlack and AIAN

Female Hispanic

Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060

Non‐Hispanic White

and API

Non‐Hispanic Black and

AIAN Hispanic

Non‐Hispanic White

and API

Non‐Hispanic Black and

AIAN Hispanic2009 76.72 71.12 78.80 81.40 77.52 83.682060 83.21 80.37 83.21 87.18 84.72 87.18

Male FemaleLife Expectancy at Birth

Year


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Fertility Projections• One series of fertility projections• Rates for women aged 10 to 54 years• Five race and Hispanic origin groups

– Non-Hispanic • White• Black• American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)• Asian or Pacific Islander (API)

– Hispanic

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Fertility Projection Methodology

• Average the age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) of non-Hispanic White females for 1989-2009

• Assume the ASFRs of all five groups will converge to the average of the ASFRs for the non-Hispanic White group in 2100

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059

Total Non‐Hispanic White Non‐Hispanic BlackNon‐Hispanic AIAN Non‐Hispanic API Hispanic

Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060

Year Total

Non‐Hispanic

White

Non‐Hispanic

Black

Non‐Hispanic

AIAN

Non‐Hispanic

API Hispanic

2009 2.00 1.83 2.03 2.24 1.72 2.552060 1.91 1.83 1.92 2.01 1.78 2.15

Total Fertil ity Rate


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Net International Migration Projections

• Foreign-born immigration (+)• Foreign-born emigration (-)• Net native-born migration (+)

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Foreign-Born Immigration Projections

• Projected as a rate of emigration from sending countries

• Rates calculated for years 1980-2010

• Rates are projected to move toward an ultimate rate

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Emigration Rate = Immigrants to United States

Sending Country Population


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Total Europe, Central Asia,and the Middle East

Asia and Pacific Islands

Non‐Spanish Caribbean andSub‐Saharan Africa

Spanish Caribbean andLatin America

Projected Rates of Emigration from Sending Countries to the United States: 2012 to 2060(Migrants per 1,000 population)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Calculating Projected Foreign-Born Immigrants

• Projected immigrants to the United States were calculated for each year by multiplying the projected emigration rate from sending countries by the projected population within each region.

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Projected U.S.

Immigrants

Projected Emigration

Rate

Projected Sending

Population

= *


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Foreign-Born Emigration Projections• Rates of emigration from the United States

are estimated using a residual method and data from Census 2000 and the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS)

• The rates were produced and applied by age, sex, Hispanic origin, and arrival cohort

• Immigrants who arrived in the past 0-9 years• Immigrants who arrived in the past 10-19 years• Immigrants who arrived 20 or more years ago

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Calculating Projected Foreign-Born Emigrants

• Foreign-born emigration from the United States was projected by applying the emigration rates to the foreign-born population

• The same set of rates, by age, sex, Hispanic origin, and arrival cohort, were used for all projected years

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Net Native-Born Migration Projections

• Comprised of migration of the native-born population, including migration from Puerto Rico to the United States

• Current estimates of net native-born migration are held constant in the projected years

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


18

725

909

1,140 1,174 1,204 1,215

2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060(In thousands)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


19

15.7

10.1

33.2

1.0

40.0

15.618.6

24.1

1.0

40.7

Non‐HispanicWhite

Non‐HispanicBlack

Non‐HispanicAsian

Non‐HispanicOther Races

Hispanic

2012 2060

Net International Migrants by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total net international migrants)

Other races includes American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, and Two or More Races.


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


Main Findings

The U.S. population is projected to:

• Grow more slowly• Continue aging• Become more diverse

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U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


21Red columns represent population estimates for 1990‐2011.

420

250282 309

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

United States Population: 1990 to 2060

The population is projected to increase from 314 million in 2012 to 420 million in 2060, reaching 400

million in 2051. 400

Numbers (in millions)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


22

0.84

0.50

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060

Annual Percent Change in Total Population: 2012 to 2060


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


23

4,210

2,522

725

4,930

4,039

1,215

Births Deaths Net International Migration

2012 2060

Births, Deaths, and Net International Migration: 2012 and 2060(Numbers in thousands)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


24

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060

Natural Increase Net International Migration

Natural Increase (Births ‐ Deaths) and Net International Migration: 2012 to 2060

Net international migration is projected to overtake natural increase as the primary driver of population growth in 2032.

Numbers (in thousands)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


25

3 2 1 0 1 2 305101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+

Population(in millions)

Males Females

Population by Age and Sex: 2012

Baby Boomers

Age (years)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


26

3 2 1 0 1 2 305101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+


Males Females

Population by Age and Sex: 2035

Baby Boomers

Age (years)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


27

3 2 1 0 1 2 305101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+


Males Females

Population by Age and Sex: 2060Age (years)

Baby Boomers


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


28

3 2 1 0 1 2 305101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+

Population (in millions)

2012 2060

Males Females

Population by Age and Sex: 2012 and 2060

2012 Population = 314 Million2060 Population = 420 Million

Age (years)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


29Dashed lines represent population estimates for 1990‐2011.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Under 18 years 65 years and over

Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: 1990 to 2060

Population (in millions)

The population 65 years and over is projected to become larger than the population under 18 years in 2056.


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


30

24

63

14

21

57

22

Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over

2012 2060

Distribution of Population by Age: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total population)


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


31

42 41 38 38 39 38 37 37

20 20 21 2835 37 36 39

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Youth Dependency Old‐Age Dependency

Total dependency = ((Population under age 18 + Population aged 65 years and over) / (Population aged 18 to 64 years)) * 100. Old‐age dependency = (Population aged 65 years and over / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100. Youth dependency = (Population under age 18 / Population aged 18 to 64 years) * 100.

Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1990 to 2060

62 66

75 75 74 76

61 59


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


32

78

13

1.25.1

0.2 2.4

63

17

69

15

1.58.2

0.36.4

43

31

Whitealone

Blackalone

AIANalone

Asianalone

NHPIalone

Two orMore Races

Non‐Hispanic

White Alone

Hispanic(of any race)

2012 2060

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060(Percent of total population)

AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060

Total population Population under 18 years

Projections of the Percent Minority: 2012 to 2060

The minority population is projected to become the numerical majority of the population under 18 years

in 2018.

Percent of total population

The minority population is projected to become the

numerical majority of the total population in 2043.


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


34

3739

3229

35

29

19

42

27

41 4239 38

4238

25

47

34

Total Whitealone

Blackalone

AIANalone

Asianalone

NHPIalone

Two orMore Races

Non‐HispanicWhite alone

Hispanic(of any race)

2012 2060

Median Age by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060

AIAN=American Indian and Alaska Native; NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander


U.S. CENSUS BUREAU


More Information

Census Bureau Projections Website:http://www.census.gov/population/projections

Contact Information:Jennifer [email protected]

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u.s. population projections: 2012 to 2060forcpgm/ortman.pdf · u.s. population projections: 2012 to...

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