us presidential election: the uk and european perspective
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October 31 2012: Professor Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, presented his perspective and predictions for the 2012 US Presidential Election based on the latest polling. The event was held by the Centre for Political and Constitutional Studies, Institute of Contemporary British History at King's College London.TRANSCRIPT
The American Presidential Elections
Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL Chancellor & Visiting Professor
University of Kent 10 September 2012
@RobertWorcester
Mobile: 07974 812 723
1
The American Presidential Election
Visiting Professor
and Honorary Fellow
Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL 31 October 2012
@RobertWorcester
King’s College London
2
2008
3
This is what happened in 2008
Source: www.realclearpolitics.com
Battleground States
270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN
Obama/Biden 53% McCain/Palin 46%
Obama Lead 7
4
ObamaState Bush Kerry Other Kerry Lead McCain Obama Other Obama Lead Swing
% % % % % % % % %Alabama 63 37 0 -26 61 39 0 -22 2.0Alaska 61 36 3 -25 60 38 2 -22 1.5Arizona 55 44 1 -11 54 45 1 -9 1.0Arkansas 54 45 1 -9 59 39 2 -20 -5.5 California 44 54 2 10 37 61 2 24 7.0Colorado 52 47 1 -5 45 54 1 9 7.0Connecticut 44 54 2 10 38 61 1 23 6.5Delaware 46 53 1 7 37 62 1 25 9.0Florida 52 47 1 -5 49 51 0 2 3.5Georgia 58 41 1 -17 52 47 1 -5 6.0Hawaii 45 54 1 9 27 72 1 45 18.0Idaho 68 30 2 -38 61 36 3 -25 6.5Illinois 45 55 0 10 37 62 1 25 7.5Indiana 60 39 1 -21 49 50 1 1 11.0Iowa 50 49 1 -1 45 54 1 9 5.0Kansas 62 37 1 -25 57 41 2 -16 4.5Kentucky 60 40 0 -20 58 41 1 -17 1.5Louisiana 57 42 1 -15 59 40 1 -19 -2.0 Maine 45 54 1 9 41 58 1 17 4.0Maryland 43 56 1 13 37 62 1 25 6.0Massachusetts 37 62 1 25 36 62 2 26 0.5Michigan 48 51 1 3 41 57 2 16 6.5Minnesota 48 51 1 3 44 54 2 10 3.5Mississippi 60 40 0 -20 57 43 0 -14 3.0Missouri 53 46 1 -7 49 49 2 0 3.5Montana 59 39 2 -20 50 47 3 -3 8.5Nebraska 66 33 1 -33 57 42 1 -15 9.0Nevada 51 48 1 -3 43 55 2 12 7.5New Hampshire 49 50 1 1 45 54 1 9 4.0New Jersey 46 53 1 7 42 57 1 15 4.0New Mexico 50 49 1 -1 42 57 1 15 8.0New York 40 58 2 18 37 62 1 25 3.5North Carolina 56 44 0 -12 49 50 1 1 6.5North Dakota 63 36 1 -27 53 45 2 -8 9.5Ohio 51 49 0 -2 47 51 2 4 3.0Oklahoma 66 34 0 -32 66 34 0 -32 0.0Oregon 47 51 2 4 41 57 2 16 6.0Pennsylvania 48 51 1 3 44 55 1 11 4.0Rhode Island 39 59 2 20 35 63 2 28 4.0South Carolina 58 41 1 -17 54 45 1 -9 4.0South Dakota 60 38 2 -22 53 45 2 -8 7.0Tennessee 57 43 0 -14 57 42 1 -15 -0.5 Texas 61 38 1 -23 55 44 1 -11 6.0Utah 72 26 2 -46 63 34 3 -29 8.5Vermont 39 59 2 20 31 68 1 37 8.5Virginia 54 46 0 -8 47 53 0 6 7.0Washington 46 53 1 7 41 58 1 17 5.0West Virginia 56 43 1 -13 56 43 1 -13 0.0Wisconsin 49 50 1 1 43 56 1 13 6.0Wyoming 69 29 2 -40 65 33 2 -32 4.0Dist Columbia 9 90 1 81 7 93 0 86 2.5
USA 51 48 1 -3 46 53 1 7 5.0Voting in 2008 45.9% 52.7% 1.3% 6.8% ©
127,142,278 58,421,377 67,066,915 1,653,986 8,645,538 23.11.08
2004 USA Presidential Election Result 2008 USA Presidential Election Result
Analysis by Sir Robert Worcester and Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI, London: [email protected]
Swing Analysis: 2008 American Presidential Election 5
Final Polls 2008 6
FINAL POLLS 4.11.08 Foot- Sample Fieldwork OBAMA MCCAIN Others Don't LEAD Vote OBAMA MCCAIN OTHERS LEAD LEAD O-M Obama McCain ALLPolling Organisation note Size End Dates Know Obama w/o DK ERROR SHARE SHARE SHARE POLL
n' % % % % % % % % % ERROR ERROR ERROR ACCURACY# % % % %
1 RasmussenReports 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 46 1 1 6 99 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 19/192 Ipsos/McClatchy 2 760 02-Nov-08 53 46 1 7 100 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 53%/46%3 Diageo/Hotline 2 800+ 02-Nov-08 50 45 5 5 95 53% 47% 0% 9% 2 0.5% 0% 1% 100% within4 Pew Research 2 2,995 01-Nov-08 52 46 2 6 100 52% 46% 2% 9% 2 0.5% 1% 0% +/-3%5 Daily Kos/Research 2000 2 1,100 03-Nov-08 51 46 2 1 5 99 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 18/196 Fox News,Opinion Dynamics 2 971 02-Nov-08 50 43 2 5 7 95 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 0.5% 0% 1% 53%/46%7 YouGov/Polimetrix 1,3 31,148 02-Nov-08 51 45 2 2 6 98 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 95% within8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 2,5 1,011 02-Nov-08 51 43 1 5 8 95 54% 45% 1% 6% -1 1.0% 1% 1% +/-2%9 American Research Group Inc 2 1,200 03-Nov-08 53 45 1 1 8 99 54% 45% 1% 9% 2 1.0% 1% 1% 11/1910 Democracy Coprs/Greenberg QR 2 1,000 02-Nov-08 53 44 3 9 100 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 53%/46%11 Marist 2 1,011 03-Nov-08 52 43 3 2 9 98 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 58% within12 Harris Interactive 2,3 5,210 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2% +/-1%13 IBD/TIPP 2,4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%14 CNN/Opinion Research 2 1,011 01-Nov-08 51 43 4 2 8 98 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%15 ABC/Wash Post 2 2,762 02-Nov-08 53 44 2 1 9 99 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%16 CBS News 2 1,051 02-Nov-08 51 42 2 5 9 95 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%17 Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby 2 n/a 03-Nov-08 54 43 3 11 100 54% 43% 3% 11% 4 2.0% 1% 3%18 Gallup 2 3,050 02-Nov-08 55 44 1 11 100 55% 44% 1% 11% 4 2.0% 2% 2%19 GWU/Battleground 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 50 48 2 2 100 50% 48% 2% 2% -5 2.5% 3% 2%
AVERAGE 52 44 2 7 98.4 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 1.1% 0.8% 1.3%ELECTION RESULT 53% 46% 1% 7%ELECTION RESULT 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 6.6% Analysis by Robert Worcester and99.8% counted 66,316,572 58,013,719 1,631,950 8,302,853Turnout 125,962,241 rmw [email protected] Registered Voters, 2 Likely Voters, 3 Internet Panel, 4 Technical details missing from html announcement, 5 Conducted by Hart/New house
Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI
2012
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The American Presidential Elections
8
Remember the debates?
Think back: who did the Republicans want to beat Obama? 9
John Huntsman
Ron Paul Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin Herman Cain Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum Michele Bachman
Chronology of the 2012 Election
End September: Romney 23%, Perry 20%, Cain 14%, Gingrich 9% End October: Cain 25%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 10% November 22: Republican Presidential Debate (three state debates prior) End November: Gingrich 33%, Romney 22%, Cain 12%, Paul 10% End December: Gingrich 28%, Romney 24%, Paul 12%, Perry 7%, Santorum 4% January 2: Romney wins Iowa caucus by 8 votes; Santorum close second January 10: New Hampshire primary, January 21: South Carolina primary January 30: Florida primary, February 28: Arizona & Michigan primaries March 6: Super Tuesday, 10 states: ALA, GA, ID, MA, ND, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA. March: 13th, AB, AS, HA, MISS; 17th MO; 18th PR; 20th IL; 24th LA April: DC, MD, WIS, CONN, Del, NY, PA, RI; May: IN, NC, WV, NE, OR, ARK, KE, TX August 27-30: Republican National Convention Sept 3-6: Democratic National Convention
October 3: 1st National Presidential Debate October 11: Vice Presidential Debate October 16: 2nd National Presidential Debate October 22: 3rd National Presidential Debate
November 6: Election Day
10
British elections usual length
Six reasons why I said that Obama will win*
1. The election of the Republican Congress in 2010 2. The improving economy in 2011/12 3. The Republicans are a divided party 4. There will be right-wing Republicans who’ll stay
home 5. Barak Obama is a formidable campaigner 6. Michele is as well
* Warwick University, 11 January 2012
11
N.B. I said that I thought ‘President Obama would win with just over
300 electoral college votes
2012 American election ‘matchups’ January
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman
45
49
47 46
49 48
47
41
43
45
42 41
Obama vs... %
Source: CBS
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47%
2012 American election ‘matchups’ March
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul
49 52
50 50
44
39 43 42
Obama vs... %
Source: Gallup, NBC, Rassmussen
13
Huntsman? GONE Perry? GONE
40
45
50
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12 Day 13 Day 14
Obama
Source: 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Data weighted to national population profile.
Romney Romney
Obama
Swing = 0% 42%
43%
46% 47%
http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections/
+4 +4
Republican Convention Democratic Convention
The conventions came...and went; no change
Since then, close, widened, closed, recovered
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
27-A
ug
29-A
ug
31-A
ug
02-S
ep
04-S
ep
06-S
ep
08-S
ep
10-S
ep
12-S
ep
14-S
ep
16-S
ep
18-S
ep
20-S
ep
22-S
ep
24-S
ep
26-S
ep
28-S
ep
30-S
ep
02-O
ct
04-O
ct
06-O
ct
08-O
ct
10-O
ct
12-O
ct
14-O
ct
16-O
ct
18-O
ct
20-O
ct
22-O
ct
24-O
ct
26-O
ct
28-O
ct
30-O
ct
01-N
ov
03-N
ov
05-N
ov
ELEC
TIO
N D
AY
Source: c. 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Source: Reuters/Ipsos
Obama/Biden 50.5%
Q “If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?”
(DK 7%)
P1
3rd
VP
11th
P2
16th
P3
22nd
Romney/Ryan 49.5%
%
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA
Base: 1,074 Registered Voters, Oct. 23-27 On-Line
Somewhat Favourable
18% Somewhat
Unfavourable 18%
Q “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needs of…?”
Mitt Romney, Republican
50%
Mitt Romney, Republican
50% Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
Women (56%) Black Americans (12%)
Base: 117 Registered Voters, Oct. 23-27, On-Line
Don’t know 13%
+84
And looking at some key segments of voters...
Hispanic Americans (8%)
Don’t know 11%
+29
Base: 76 Registered Voters, Oct. 23,-27, On-Line
Independent Party 17% Republican
Party 28%
Don’t know 19%
+15
Democratic
Party 43%
1% 2%
Democratic
Party 84% Republican
Party 16%
Democratic
Party 45%
Ind Party 8%
Other/None 7%
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line
Lean toward
favourable 15%
Somewhat Favourable
18% Somewhat
Unfavourable 18%
Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?”
Mitt Romney, Republican
50%
Don’t know 22%
Mitt Romney, Republican
50%
Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
First Debate Second Debate
Base: 655 Registered Voters, Oct. 17, On-Line
Barack Obama, Democrat
48% Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
Don’t know 19%
+22
+15
But Obama won the second, by 15 points
18.5% swing
Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA
Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line
Somewhat Favourable
18% Somewhat
Unfavourable 18%
Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?”
Mitt Romney, Republican
50%
Don’t know 22%
Mitt Romney, Republican
50% Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
First Debate Second Debate
Base: 655 Registered Voters, Oct. 17, On-Line
Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
Don’t know 19%
+22 +15
And Obama won the third, by 16 points
18.5% swing
Third Debate
Don’t know 22%
Mitt Romney, Republican
31%
0.5% swing
Barack Obama,
Democrat 48%
Barack Obama,
Democrat 47%
+16
Base: 515 Registered Voters, Oct. 23, On-Line
Obama’ 7 point lead today on healthcare steady
Healthcare US Economy
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 13-17, On-Line, update Oct. 23, 2012
Q “In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better plan, policy or approach to… Healthcare?” … the US Economy”
34%
41%
Obama
Romney
13%
12%
None
DK
38%
37%
Obama
Romney
12%
12%
+7* -1%*
*+16% 4 weeks ago, +13% 3 weeks, +7% a week ago
None
DK DK
*+1% 4 weeks ago, +5% 3 weeks, -4% 2 weeks ago
Men +6% Women +10
Men +15% Women - 5%
Which candidate...is...better/stronger on...? 20
Source: Ipsos USA, FW 23-27.10.12, 1,665 RV; 1,291 LV
In your opinion, which candidate has a better policy, plan, approach/which is stronger/... on each of the following...?
Policy, Plan, Approach Obama Romney Policy Gap Image Attributes Obama Romney Image
Gap Women’s Rights 49% 26% +23 Fun to meet 41% 15% +26 Gay Marriage 43% 25% +18 Likeable 51% 32% +19 The Environment 40% 26% +14 Eloquent 44% 29% +15 Education 42% 31% +14 Understands people 43% 31% +12 American Auto Ind’sty 41% 30% +11 Good person 45% 36% +9 Social Security 39% 31% +8 Presidential 46% 39% +7 Healthcare 43% 49% +8 Represents America 45% 39% +6 Medicare 41% 41% +7 Smart enough for job 45% 40% +5 War on Terrorism 40% 39% +7 Right values 43% 40% +3 Foreign Policy 39% 43% +5 Protect American jobs 42% 40% +2 Iran 35% 41% +5 Tough enough for job 42% 41% +1 Taxes 40% 40% +3 Effective in Wash’ton 38% 39% -1 Immigration 33% 32% +1 Man of faith 31% 45% -14 Small Businesses 40% 39% +1
Israel 31% 33% -2
Jobs and Employment 39% 41% -2 US Economy 31% 36% -5 Federal Deficit 30% 40% -10
Very favourable
34%
Very favourable 21% (+3)
Obama +24 point favourablity rating over Romney after the second debate, up from +10 before debate
Q “Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards…?” President
Barack Obama
Republican Presidential
Candidate Mitt Romney
Source: Reuters/Ipsos
Lean toward
favourable 9%
Lean toward
unfavourable111%
Somewhat Unfavourable
7% Somewhat Favourable
17%
Very unfavourable
22%
Lean toward
favourable 12% (-1)
Lean toward
Unfavourable 16% (+1)
Somewhat Favourable
18% (+1)
Very unfavourable
22% (-8)
48%
52% Somewhat
Unfavourable 11% (+2)
60%
40%
+12 +20
Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 16-20 2012, On-Line
+12 -4
Odds Popular Vote
Somewhat Favourable
18% Somewhat
Unfavourable 18%
Mitt Romney, Republican
50%
Mitt Romney, Republican
50% Mitt Romney, Republican
33%
Seats
Mitt Romney, Republican
23%
+22
Mitt Romney, Republican
48%
Barack Obama,
Democrat
77%
Barack Obama,
Democrat
50%
What Nate Silver is projecting (As of 5:15 am 31.10.12)
http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/
270 TO WIN
Barack Obama,
Democrat
299
Mitt Romney, Republican
239
Where Obama will win (or lose?) (Election 6.11.12)
Lean toward
favourable 15%
Somewhat unfavourable
10%
Somewhat Favourable
18% Somewhat
Unfavourable 18% Mitt Romney,
Republican 50%
http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/
What are the odds now? (10th) (18th) (28) 10.10.12 13.10.12 18.10.12 31.10.12
Ohio 40% 47 50 68%/32% 64%/36% 72%/28% 78%/22% Va. 16% 23 15 56%/44% 41%/59% 50%/50% 62%/38% Fla. 10% 17 3 45%/55% 28%/72% 37%/63% 50%/50% Wis. 8% 6 8 80%/20% 74%/26% 81%/19% 88%/12% Nev. 8% 7 8 69%/31% 73%/27% 73%/27% 83%/17% Iowa 6% 5 6 62%/38% 60%/40% 74%/26% 72%/26% Colo. 5% 5 6 51%/49% 43%/57% 57%/43% 61%/39% New H. 3% 4 3 77%/23% 66%/34% 71%/29% 75%/25%
National 75%/25% 63%/37% 70%/30% 77%/24%
10.10.12
13.10.12
18.10.12
31.10.12
Six talking points for you (attribution not required)
1. Yes, Romney won the first debate, so did Nick! 2. A third of ‘Independents’ won’t vote anyway. (DKDV) 3. 24% of Americans in 2007 said they’d never vote for a
Mormon; dropped now to 12%; no data I can find on those who think they’d never vote for a black man since 1965.
4. 42% of Americans said in 1998 they are ‘born again Christians’; many are ‘Tea Party Types’, natural core voters for the Republican Party.
5. Therefore, will some right-wing Republicans stay home? 6. 12% say they’ve already voted; in all, only 72% of registered
voters say they’ll vote on the day. 7. One American in 25 say they’d rather have a tooth pulled
than watch another debate.
25
6 days to go to November 6th, election day!
Q & A
Thank you!
@RobertWorcester
26
27
Nov. 6 Forecast
Now Barack Obama Electoral Vote Mitt Romney
299 221.1
Barack Obama Chance of Winning Mitt Romney
77.4% 22.6%
+10.7 since 23 Oct -10.7
+9.3 since 23 Oct. -9.3
Barack Obama Popular Vote Mitt Romney
50.4% 48.5% +0.4 since 23 Oct. -0.4
Source: 538: NYT: Nate Silver
State of the Election: Updated 5:15 am on October 31st