us presidential election: the uk and european perspective

The American Presidential Elections

Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL Chancellor & Visiting Professor

University of Kent 10 September 2012

[email protected]

@RobertWorcester

Mobile: 07974 812 723

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mailto:[email protected]

The American Presidential Election

Visiting Professor

and Honorary Fellow

Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL 31 October 2012

[email protected]

@RobertWorcester

King’s College London

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2008

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This is what happened in 2008

Source: www.realclearpolitics.com

Battleground States

270 ELECTORAL VOTES TO WIN

Obama/Biden 53% McCain/Palin 46%

Obama Lead 7

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ObamaState Bush Kerry Other Kerry Lead McCain Obama Other Obama Lead Swing

% % % % % % % % %Alabama 63 37 0 -26 61 39 0 -22 2.0Alaska 61 36 3 -25 60 38 2 -22 1.5Arizona 55 44 1 -11 54 45 1 -9 1.0Arkansas 54 45 1 -9 59 39 2 -20 -5.5 California 44 54 2 10 37 61 2 24 7.0Colorado 52 47 1 -5 45 54 1 9 7.0Connecticut 44 54 2 10 38 61 1 23 6.5Delaware 46 53 1 7 37 62 1 25 9.0Florida 52 47 1 -5 49 51 0 2 3.5Georgia 58 41 1 -17 52 47 1 -5 6.0Hawaii 45 54 1 9 27 72 1 45 18.0Idaho 68 30 2 -38 61 36 3 -25 6.5Illinois 45 55 0 10 37 62 1 25 7.5Indiana 60 39 1 -21 49 50 1 1 11.0Iowa 50 49 1 -1 45 54 1 9 5.0Kansas 62 37 1 -25 57 41 2 -16 4.5Kentucky 60 40 0 -20 58 41 1 -17 1.5Louisiana 57 42 1 -15 59 40 1 -19 -2.0 Maine 45 54 1 9 41 58 1 17 4.0Maryland 43 56 1 13 37 62 1 25 6.0Massachusetts 37 62 1 25 36 62 2 26 0.5Michigan 48 51 1 3 41 57 2 16 6.5Minnesota 48 51 1 3 44 54 2 10 3.5Mississippi 60 40 0 -20 57 43 0 -14 3.0Missouri 53 46 1 -7 49 49 2 0 3.5Montana 59 39 2 -20 50 47 3 -3 8.5Nebraska 66 33 1 -33 57 42 1 -15 9.0Nevada 51 48 1 -3 43 55 2 12 7.5New Hampshire 49 50 1 1 45 54 1 9 4.0New Jersey 46 53 1 7 42 57 1 15 4.0New Mexico 50 49 1 -1 42 57 1 15 8.0New York 40 58 2 18 37 62 1 25 3.5North Carolina 56 44 0 -12 49 50 1 1 6.5North Dakota 63 36 1 -27 53 45 2 -8 9.5Ohio 51 49 0 -2 47 51 2 4 3.0Oklahoma 66 34 0 -32 66 34 0 -32 0.0Oregon 47 51 2 4 41 57 2 16 6.0Pennsylvania 48 51 1 3 44 55 1 11 4.0Rhode Island 39 59 2 20 35 63 2 28 4.0South Carolina 58 41 1 -17 54 45 1 -9 4.0South Dakota 60 38 2 -22 53 45 2 -8 7.0Tennessee 57 43 0 -14 57 42 1 -15 -0.5 Texas 61 38 1 -23 55 44 1 -11 6.0Utah 72 26 2 -46 63 34 3 -29 8.5Vermont 39 59 2 20 31 68 1 37 8.5Virginia 54 46 0 -8 47 53 0 6 7.0Washington 46 53 1 7 41 58 1 17 5.0West Virginia 56 43 1 -13 56 43 1 -13 0.0Wisconsin 49 50 1 1 43 56 1 13 6.0Wyoming 69 29 2 -40 65 33 2 -32 4.0Dist Columbia 9 90 1 81 7 93 0 86 2.5

USA 51 48 1 -3 46 53 1 7 5.0Voting in 2008 45.9% 52.7% 1.3% 6.8% ©

127,142,278 58,421,377 67,066,915 1,653,986 8,645,538 23.11.08

2004 USA Presidential Election Result 2008 USA Presidential Election Result

Analysis by Sir Robert Worcester and Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI, London: [email protected]

Swing Analysis: 2008 American Presidential Election 5

Final Polls 2008 6

FINAL POLLS 4.11.08 Foot- Sample Fieldwork OBAMA MCCAIN Others Don't LEAD Vote OBAMA MCCAIN OTHERS LEAD LEAD O-M Obama McCain ALLPolling Organisation note Size End Dates Know Obama w/o DK ERROR SHARE SHARE SHARE POLL

n' % % % % % % % % % ERROR ERROR ERROR ACCURACY# % % % %

1 RasmussenReports 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 46 1 1 6 99 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 19/192 Ipsos/McClatchy 2 760 02-Nov-08 53 46 1 7 100 53% 46% 1% 7% 0 0.0% 0% 0% 53%/46%3 Diageo/Hotline 2 800+ 02-Nov-08 50 45 5 5 95 53% 47% 0% 9% 2 0.5% 0% 1% 100% within4 Pew Research 2 2,995 01-Nov-08 52 46 2 6 100 52% 46% 2% 9% 2 0.5% 1% 0% +/-3%5 Daily Kos/Research 2000 2 1,100 03-Nov-08 51 46 2 1 5 99 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 18/196 Fox News,Opinion Dynamics 2 971 02-Nov-08 50 43 2 5 7 95 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 0.5% 0% 1% 53%/46%7 YouGov/Polimetrix 1,3 31,148 02-Nov-08 51 45 2 2 6 98 52% 46% 2% 6% -1 0.5% 1% 0% 95% within8 NBC/Wall Street Journal 2,5 1,011 02-Nov-08 51 43 1 5 8 95 54% 45% 1% 6% -1 1.0% 1% 1% +/-2%9 American Research Group Inc 2 1,200 03-Nov-08 53 45 1 1 8 99 54% 45% 1% 9% 2 1.0% 1% 1% 11/1910 Democracy Coprs/Greenberg QR 2 1,000 02-Nov-08 53 44 3 9 100 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 53%/46%11 Marist 2 1,011 03-Nov-08 52 43 3 2 9 98 53% 44% 3% 9% 2 1.0% 0% 2% 58% within12 Harris Interactive 2,3 5,210 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2% +/-1%13 IBD/TIPP 2,4 n/a 03-Nov-08 52 44 4 8 100 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%14 CNN/Opinion Research 2 1,011 01-Nov-08 51 43 4 2 8 98 52% 44% 4% 8% 1 1.5% 1% 2%15 ABC/Wash Post 2 2,762 02-Nov-08 53 44 2 1 9 99 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%16 CBS News 2 1,051 02-Nov-08 51 42 2 5 9 95 54% 44% 2% 10% 3 1.5% 1% 2%17 Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby 2 n/a 03-Nov-08 54 43 3 11 100 54% 43% 3% 11% 4 2.0% 1% 3%18 Gallup 2 3,050 02-Nov-08 55 44 1 11 100 55% 44% 1% 11% 4 2.0% 2% 2%19 GWU/Battleground 4 n/a 03-Nov-08 50 48 2 2 100 50% 48% 2% 2% -5 2.5% 3% 2%

AVERAGE 52 44 2 7 98.4 53% 45% 2% 8% 1 1.1% 0.8% 1.3%ELECTION RESULT 53% 46% 1% 7%ELECTION RESULT 52.6% 46.1% 1.3% 6.6% Analysis by Robert Worcester and99.8% counted 66,316,572 58,013,719 1,631,950 8,302,853Turnout 125,962,241 rmw [email protected] Registered Voters, 2 Likely Voters, 3 Internet Panel, 4 Technical details missing from html announcement, 5 Conducted by Hart/New house

Tomasz Mludzinski, Ipsos MORI

2012

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The American Presidential Elections

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Remember the debates?

Think back: who did the Republicans want to beat Obama? 9

John Huntsman

Ron Paul Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin Herman Cain Newt Gingrich

Rick Santorum Michele Bachman

Chronology of the 2012 Election

End September: Romney 23%, Perry 20%, Cain 14%, Gingrich 9% End October: Cain 25%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 10% November 22: Republican Presidential Debate (three state debates prior) End November: Gingrich 33%, Romney 22%, Cain 12%, Paul 10% End December: Gingrich 28%, Romney 24%, Paul 12%, Perry 7%, Santorum 4% January 2: Romney wins Iowa caucus by 8 votes; Santorum close second January 10: New Hampshire primary, January 21: South Carolina primary January 30: Florida primary, February 28: Arizona & Michigan primaries March 6: Super Tuesday, 10 states: ALA, GA, ID, MA, ND, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA. March: 13th, AB, AS, HA, MISS; 17th MO; 18th PR; 20th IL; 24th LA April: DC, MD, WIS, CONN, Del, NY, PA, RI; May: IN, NC, WV, NE, OR, ARK, KE, TX August 27-30: Republican National Convention Sept 3-6: Democratic National Convention

October 3: 1st National Presidential Debate October 11: Vice Presidential Debate October 16: 2nd National Presidential Debate October 22: 3rd National Presidential Debate

November 6: Election Day

10

British elections usual length

Six reasons why I said that Obama will win*

1. The election of the Republican Congress in 2010 2. The improving economy in 2011/12 3. The Republicans are a divided party 4. There will be right-wing Republicans who’ll stay

home 5. Barak Obama is a formidable campaigner 6. Michele is as well

* Warwick University, 11 January 2012

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N.B. I said that I thought ‘President Obama would win with just over

300 electoral college votes

2012 American election ‘matchups’ January

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38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Huntsman

45

49

47 46

49 48

47

41

43

45

42 41

Obama vs... %

Source: CBS

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47%

2012 American election ‘matchups’ March

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul

49 52

50 50

44

39 43 42

Obama vs... %

Source: Gallup, NBC, Rassmussen

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Huntsman? GONE Perry? GONE

40

45

50

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12 Day 13 Day 14

Obama

Source: 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Data weighted to national population profile.

Romney Romney

Obama

Swing = 0% 42%

43%

46% 47%

http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections/

+4 +4

Republican Convention Democratic Convention

The conventions came...and went; no change





Since then, close, widened, closed, recovered

0

10

20

30

40

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60

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ELEC

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Source: c. 1,000+ interviews with Registered Voters age 18 and over carried out online as part of four-day rolling poll. Source: Reuters/Ipsos

Obama/Biden 50.5%

Q “If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote?”

(DK 7%)

P1

3rd

VP

11th

P2

16th

P3

22nd

Romney/Ryan 49.5%

%

Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA

Base: 1,074 Registered Voters, Oct. 23-27 On-Line

Somewhat Favourable

18% Somewhat

Unfavourable 18%

Q “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needs of…?”

Mitt Romney, Republican

50%


50% Mitt Romney, Republican

33%

Women (56%) Black Americans (12%)

Base: 117 Registered Voters, Oct. 23-27, On-Line

Don’t know 13%

+84

And looking at some key segments of voters...

Hispanic Americans (8%)

Don’t know 11%

+29

Base: 76 Registered Voters, Oct. 23,-27, On-Line

Independent Party 17% Republican

Party 28%

Don’t know 19%

+15

Democratic

Party 43%

1% 2%

Democratic

Party 84% Republican

Party 16%

Democratic

Party 45%

Ind Party 8%

Other/None 7%

Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line

Lean toward

favourable 15%

Somewhat Favourable

18% Somewhat

Unfavourable 18%

Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?”


50%

Don’t know 22%


50%


33%

First Debate Second Debate

Base: 655 Registered Voters, Oct. 17, On-Line

Barack Obama, Democrat


33%

Don’t know 19%

+22

+15

But Obama won the second, by 15 points

18.5% swing

Source: Reuters/Ipsos USA

Base: 1,323 Registered Voters, Oct. 3, On-Line

Somewhat Favourable

18% Somewhat

Unfavourable 18%

Q “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?”


50%

Don’t know 22%



33%

First Debate Second Debate



33%

Don’t know 19%

+22 +15

And Obama won the third, by 16 points

18.5% swing

Third Debate

Don’t know 22%


31%

0.5% swing

Barack Obama,

Democrat 48%

Barack Obama,

Democrat 47%

+16


Obama’ 7 point lead today on healthcare steady

Healthcare US Economy

Source: Reuters/Ipsos Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 13-17, On-Line, update Oct. 23, 2012

Q “In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better plan, policy or approach to… Healthcare?” … the US Economy”

34%

41%

Obama

Romney

13%

12%

None

DK

38%

37%

Obama

Romney

12%

12%

+7* -1%*

*+16% 4 weeks ago, +13% 3 weeks, +7% a week ago

None

DK DK

*+1% 4 weeks ago, +5% 3 weeks, -4% 2 weeks ago

Men +6% Women +10

Men +15% Women - 5%

Which candidate...is...better/stronger on...? 20

Source: Ipsos USA, FW 23-27.10.12, 1,665 RV; 1,291 LV

In your opinion, which candidate has a better policy, plan, approach/which is stronger/... on each of the following...?

Policy, Plan, Approach Obama Romney Policy Gap Image Attributes Obama Romney Image

Gap Women’s Rights 49% 26% +23 Fun to meet 41% 15% +26 Gay Marriage 43% 25% +18 Likeable 51% 32% +19 The Environment 40% 26% +14 Eloquent 44% 29% +15 Education 42% 31% +14 Understands people 43% 31% +12 American Auto Ind’sty 41% 30% +11 Good person 45% 36% +9 Social Security 39% 31% +8 Presidential 46% 39% +7 Healthcare 43% 49% +8 Represents America 45% 39% +6 Medicare 41% 41% +7 Smart enough for job 45% 40% +5 War on Terrorism 40% 39% +7 Right values 43% 40% +3 Foreign Policy 39% 43% +5 Protect American jobs 42% 40% +2 Iran 35% 41% +5 Tough enough for job 42% 41% +1 Taxes 40% 40% +3 Effective in Wash’ton 38% 39% -1 Immigration 33% 32% +1 Man of faith 31% 45% -14 Small Businesses 40% 39% +1

Israel 31% 33% -2

Jobs and Employment 39% 41% -2 US Economy 31% 36% -5 Federal Deficit 30% 40% -10

Very favourable

34%

Very favourable 21% (+3)

Obama +24 point favourablity rating over Romney after the second debate, up from +10 before debate

Q “Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards…?” President

Barack Obama

Republican Presidential

Candidate Mitt Romney

Source: Reuters/Ipsos

Lean toward

favourable 9%

Lean toward

unfavourable111%

Somewhat Unfavourable

7% Somewhat Favourable

17%

Very unfavourable

22%

Lean toward

favourable 12% (-1)

Lean toward

Unfavourable 16% (+1)

Somewhat Favourable

18% (+1)

Very unfavourable

22% (-8)

48%

52% Somewhat

Unfavourable 11% (+2)

60%

40%

+12 +20

Base: 1,491 American Registered Voters, Oct. 16-20 2012, On-Line

+12 -4

Odds Popular Vote

Somewhat Favourable

18% Somewhat

Unfavourable 18%


50%



33%

Seats


23%

+22


48%

Barack Obama,

Democrat

77%

Barack Obama,

Democrat

50%

What Nate Silver is projecting (As of 5:15 am 31.10.12)

http://fivethirtyeight.nytimes.com/

270 TO WIN

Barack Obama,

Democrat

299


239


Where Obama will win (or lose?) (Election 6.11.12)

Lean toward

favourable 15%

Somewhat unfavourable

10%

Somewhat Favourable

18% Somewhat

Unfavourable 18% Mitt Romney,

Republican 50%


What are the odds now? (10th) (18th) (28) 10.10.12 13.10.12 18.10.12 31.10.12

Ohio 40% 47 50 68%/32% 64%/36% 72%/28% 78%/22% Va. 16% 23 15 56%/44% 41%/59% 50%/50% 62%/38% Fla. 10% 17 3 45%/55% 28%/72% 37%/63% 50%/50% Wis. 8% 6 8 80%/20% 74%/26% 81%/19% 88%/12% Nev. 8% 7 8 69%/31% 73%/27% 73%/27% 83%/17% Iowa 6% 5 6 62%/38% 60%/40% 74%/26% 72%/26% Colo. 5% 5 6 51%/49% 43%/57% 57%/43% 61%/39% New H. 3% 4 3 77%/23% 66%/34% 71%/29% 75%/25%

National 75%/25% 63%/37% 70%/30% 77%/24%

10.10.12

13.10.12

18.10.12

31.10.12


Six talking points for you (attribution not required)

1. Yes, Romney won the first debate, so did Nick! 2. A third of ‘Independents’ won’t vote anyway. (DKDV) 3. 24% of Americans in 2007 said they’d never vote for a

Mormon; dropped now to 12%; no data I can find on those who think they’d never vote for a black man since 1965.

4. 42% of Americans said in 1998 they are ‘born again Christians’; many are ‘Tea Party Types’, natural core voters for the Republican Party.

5. Therefore, will some right-wing Republicans stay home? 6. 12% say they’ve already voted; in all, only 72% of registered

voters say they’ll vote on the day. 7. One American in 25 say they’d rather have a tooth pulled

than watch another debate.

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6 days to go to November 6th, election day!

Q & A

Thank you!

[email protected]

@RobertWorcester

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mailto:[email protected]

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Nov. 6 Forecast

Now Barack Obama Electoral Vote Mitt Romney

299 221.1

Barack Obama Chance of Winning Mitt Romney

77.4% 22.6%

+10.7 since 23 Oct -10.7

+9.3 since 23 Oct. -9.3

Barack Obama Popular Vote Mitt Romney

50.4% 48.5% +0.4 since 23 Oct. -0.4

Source: 538: NYT: Nate Silver

State of the Election: Updated 5:15 am on October 31st

us presidential election: the uk and european perspective

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