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US Study Tour 2017 Key session take-aways

Niels From

7.10.2017

• This presentation contains a brief high-level summary of the US Study Tour, and minutes from the individual sessions.

• The intention is that this can help facilitate a debriefing in your organisations back home

• The presentations shown during the sessions will be uploaded to the Nordea web site, with the link being emailed to

you in due course

• Douglas Bergner’s remarks Wednesday night will also be made available on the web site

• On (most) individual session minutes in this presentation the respective author has indicated how she/he sees the

session conclusions from a financial market risk sentiment perspective: Risk appetite up/down/neutral

Nordea 2017 US Study Tour – meeting minutes

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Agenda

• High-level summary

• Detroit session minutes from

Nordea representatives

• Washington session minutes from


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• After years of mismanagement, including corruption, Detroit appears to have learned from past mistakes. The city has

embarked on a journey to revive itself.

• Soul and local philanthropy has started a refurbishment-wave of Detroit. With that jobs are moving into Downtown

(urbanisation): Tech-related employers are moving to the region, and small business entrepreneurs are opening up.

• If Detroit is a symbol of the Rust-Belt, the Rust-Belt is also facing brighter times, though it is not thanks to President

Trump’s America Fist policy – the Rust-Belt is part of the global economy, and would suffer from Trump’s protectionism.

• There is an awareness that the traditional Rust-Belt industries cannot spearhead the economic future for the Region in

the same way as they did in the past. Instead focus has to move to green-tech related industries, where the region

stands a chance to leverage on its resources (universities, corporates, old economic wealth, recreational areas, quality

of life), and also focus on reusing the know-how from the traditional industries to develop green tech products.

• This transition is symbolised by the Auto industry, which is finally waking up, acknowledging that it: 1) needs to go

green; 2) needs to collaborate with the Silicon-Valley-type tech companies, creating the car of the future. The challenge

is that the Rust-Belt is not alone with this ambition. The biggest joker is whether their young talent can be retained.

• However, with the US approaching its longest recovery ever, it would have been strange if Detroit/Rust-Belt had not

benefitted. In this is also the risk: History tells that the US will face a recession within the next few years. Coming from

a more vulnerable position than most of the country, how will Detroit, its investors, and the Rust-Belt be hit? In this

regard the amount of residential space under renovation/construction in Detroit appeared risky.

Detroit – conclusions: ‘We are open for business’

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• President Trump: Everybody is frustrated with President Trump, his lack of understanding of political craftsmanship

and his unpredictability. Yet, the political speakers generally thought that he could sit through not only this term, but

even win a second. The key issue is that nobody can see the alternative currently – even the Democrat speaker could

not come up with a convincing answer to her party’s leadership crisis apart from a generation change.

• Public debt: Political paralysis will continue in WDC with the President becoming increasingly distanced to his own

party. A fundamental tax reform has only a slim likelihood, but some tax cuts can become reality. At the same time

Trump may only be able to get through with increased military spending, if he also accepts increased non-military

spending. In sum it does not bode well for public debt. The debt sustainability discussion is back on the agenda.

• Federal Reserve: Unless the data surprises, the Fed appears on track to hike in December, and to continue its steady

hiking path, while reducing its balance sheet. A sharper equity market correction would only disturb this, if it is having

visible adverse macro effects – otherwise the Fed will ignore it (according to Greg Ip). While more candidates are in

the race to become the next Fed chair, Janet Yellen stands a good chance to getting another term – though the game

is open.

• Security policy: There is a clear understanding that a military strike against North Korea is not going to solve the

crisis. Instead the current situation may linger on. Even China has limits to how much it can influence North Korea. The

President’s pressure on Europe to spend more on defence has had an impact. However the US is loosing its position

as the voice of the free world. Europe does not have capacity to take over this role, although the voices of Macron and

Merkel will play a bigger role.

Washington DC – conclusions: Frustration and paralysis

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• The US economy appears to continue growing at a healthy pace for now, and the Fed will continue a predictable

tightening cycle with gradual rate hikes and balance sheet adjustment.

• At the same time Europe is seeing a broadening of its recovery, while also other parts of the world is moving along. In

that sense there is a re-synchronisation of the growth cycles globally

• All of above provides predictability for financial markets and thereby supports risk sentiment for now.

• Apart from geopolitics, one of the biggest risk factors to the points above is debt – irresponsible fiscal policy decisions

in the US can impair markets at some point.

US study trip – conclusions: The financial market perspective

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Agenda






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• Session focus and take-aways – Detroit is the story about a city that once was the wealthiest city in the world, and now struggles to come back to greatness. After many tough years Detroit

is again seeing signs of growth.

– City financials are in good health (budgets are balanced) and has been so for the last 3 years

– Crime rates are significantly down, the small company community is supplemented by bigger / international companies moving to Detroit (example:

Amazon is considering moving to Detroit): Young people again see Detroit as an interesting place to live

– The reason behind the resent turn-around is driven by a number of factors where Mr. Warren highlights the good working environment and willingness to

make decisions amongst the Big Four, which is the Mayor of Detroit (Mr. Duggan), Wayne County Executive (Mr. Warren), Macomb County Executive (Mr.

Hackel) and Oakland County Executive (Mr Patterson)

– The good working environment between the Big Four is credited to a common objective for Detroit as well as to the fact that the four of them have worked

together in various positions in the past, i.e. they know each other

– Detroit seems to be able to get its fair share (and more) of support from the Federal budgets. Mr. Warren’s strategy is two-fold: 1. making sure that when

promises are being made to the Federal government they are also executed upon and 2. Detroit should not ask the Federal government for support on

many projects, they should rather ask for support for fewer but important projects. Mr. Warren highlights the resent investments being made in the bus

system (Q-line) as an example where the Federal government has supported Detroit.

Meeting with Detroit Regional County Executive Mr. Warren Evans, Chief Executive Officer, Wayne County, Michigan

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Impact on risk appetite over next 12 months

Risk on Neutral Risk off

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• Session focus and take-aways – The resent turn-around of Detroit as well as the positive development in Detroit going forward is supported by a number of factors:

− Developed tech- and infrastructure

− Housing situation – cheap and high-quality

− International waterline to Canada

− Q-line (bus system)

− Work force ready to be employed

− Immigrants are welcome in Detroit

− Well-developed school system, including universities

– The main risks for the growth in Detroit not to continue:

− Housing: if house prices rise too fast resulting in people choosing not to move to Detroit

− The people having lived in Detroit throughout the down-turn need to be part / feel part of the up-swing

– Madame President did not see a risk of down- and midtown being developed faster than the rest of Detroit. She sees a spill-over effect where the growth

branches out into the communities outside

– The business case of Detroit is supported aggressively by allowing tax breaks for new companies moving to Detroit. Madame President did not see this as

a problem for future generations having to pay the bill as the tax revenues being generated from the work force accompanying these new companies would

make it balance

– Detroit has been known for having severe drug issues, but after having had a period of coordinated effort against drugs, results show that both drug and

crime rates are down. Another topic related to this is the human trafficking happening in Detroit, which is related to the State of Michigan having a softer

penalties compared to other states – Madame President wants to change this

– Corruption amongst public servants has also been a major concern in the past but since more ‘checks & balances’ have been introduced also this area see

a positive development. As an example the lobbying community now need to be registered in order to do lobbying activities.

Meeting with Detroit City Council President Ms. Brenda Jones, President, Detroit City Council

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• Session focus and take-aways – Detroit was built up during 1900-1950’s to become a leader within automotive, with a booming middle class, housing boom etc. Population peaked in

1950’s with close to 2m citizens.

– Starting from 1967 Detroit experienced one of the biggest downturns in US history; people left the city, leading to inadequate tax base, fewer jobs, swollen

welfare, corrupted government, increased crime. Who left Detroit? The ones who could.

– Several attempts were made to save the city and rebuild it: 1970’s Renaissance center (disaster), 1980’s Riverfront Towers (build in the middle of nowhere,

no one in the buildings), 1990’s Building casinos (nobody came, but local people who spent all their money there) etc.

– Now, over the last 5-6 years a significant rebuilding of Detroit has taken place. A movement started in 2010 with the election of Mayor Dave Bing, who

brought integrity to the office. Then they filed for bankruptcy. Election of Mayor Mike Duggan (ran as a “writing” candidate) who has done a lot for the city.

Alignment between the Mayor and the Governor.

– Real Estate development being an important factor in building a sustainable city. Focus on building the downtown and midtown (7.2 square miles), which

facilitates “trade”, companies moving to Detroit, creating jobs, people spending money.

– Development now also taking place outside the city centre (7.2), and is financed with both public an private money a well as money from foundations.

– Today Detroit is still a car city, but with development and engineering taking place, rather than pure manufacturing. As such the growth is more driven by

smaller companies today.

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – Detroit is on the right track, and is in the middle of a huge turnaround. Much has taken place already, but there is more to come (since 2000 $6.6bn has

been invested, and another $2.9bn is committed and is in the pipeline to be invested). There seems to be a willingness from both politicians and from the

private side to focus on solutions rather than fighting against each other.

– Everything else equal, Detroit is expected to continue its journey and be a positive contributor to US economy (also in relative terms).

Detroit’s Future: Real Estate as a Key Driver Mr. Todd Sachse, Founder and CEO, Sachse Construction

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Detroit’s Future – The Financial Component Mr. David Blaszkiewicz, Invest Detroit

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• Session focus and take-aways – Focus on equity in investments and also on the job side of the equation. Invest Detroit does both construction and renovation

– Historically very complex funding structures (e.g. 22 layers in the Westin Cadillac hotel project). These are now simplified.

– Public, private and philanthropic investments focused on the 7.2 sq miles in downtown Detroit

– 80/20 strategy – 80% market rates, 20% affordable rates.

– Invest Detroit look to other cities for inspiration; eg Oakland Philadelphia, and Cincinnati

– Debt ratio in construction investments relatively low (50%)

– Self capturing tax tool allows for tax dollars to be reinvested in city development projects. Tax offsets granted by authorities (tax credits) for when projects

are completed. Credits can be sold up front, hence securing bridge financing

– Nationwide inflow of population into downtowns residents, retail shops, restaurants etc. shooting up. Housing demand studies carried out every two years.

Expected need for at least 5000 residential units in Detroit over the next 2 years

– 8-12 % return on equity on projects. Levels are subsidised by non-profit funds. Non-profit funding is brought in, if projects yield is too low – thus securing

acceptable yields for other investors

– 25 neighbourhoods in Detroit are growing. Focus on areas that attract different kinds of investments

• Conclusion for Financial Markets – Overall positive for the economy in the region. Jobs are created both in projects and in the renovated areas bringing people back to the city. Nationwide,

though, the effect is probably neutral

• Session focus and take-aways – Region was originally populated due to the many natural resources

– Home of many legendary companies and innovation

– Strong educational set-up with upper-end schools and colleges

– If Windsor was included then the region would have the world’s 3rd largest GDP

– Population growth due to immigrants

– Challenges for the region

− Low level of education, high degree of illiteracy

− Brain drain

− Need to clean up the mess from the industrial age

− Ageing infrastructure

− Most racial segregated region in the US

− Lack of entrepreneurship

− Venture capital exported towards the coastal regions

– Opportunities

− Comparison to Berlin – Phoenix from the ashes

− Investment in clean energy and green tech

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – Mr Austin was balanced positive for the outlook for the regions economy and it was crucial that the region cold be able to change the work of yesterday to

the work of tomorrow.

Outlook for the revival of the rust belt Mr John Austin, Michigan Economic Center

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• Session focus and take-aways – Global auto production has recovered with growth of 1.5% LY. Expected growth of 18.5% over next 10 years, of which 70% will come from Emerging Asia

– Baseline outlook for North America is steady. Detroit-3 production will remain stable and hence the market share will drop slowly, but steadily, vs. Asian

producers. Detroit-3 not able to increase production of stronghold SUVs to substitute for weakness in sedans

– Trump’s harsh stance in NAFTA negotiations will not help Detroit-3, it will hamper them

– Economies of scale to become even more important, smaller manufacturers such as BMW to be challenged. Consolidations in the pipeline

– By 2025, full electric vehicles expected to have only a 4.1% global market share. Including hybrids the share is expected to be 34% => internal combution

engines will still dominate

– Autonomous vehicles sales are expected to increase, but perhaps not as fast as expected by Silicon Valley

– Vehicles production with no driver assistance at all to have global market share of around 75% in 2023

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – Slightly positive impact on US economy and financial markets as this significant manufacturing sector still has a large role to play in the future

Meeting on North American Light Vehicle Market Mr. Michael Robinet, Automotive Advisory Solutions, IHS Markit

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• Session focus and take-aways – Very strong US market, 17.4m sales and outlook for 2017/18 is stable forecast of approx. 17m. New technology and new business models are dominating

the future and growing vehicle equipment is increasing costs (today the average car costs USD 35K, which is more expensive than the average family can

afford) but demand is expected to remain strong for the next decade. The industry has been through a huge turnaround, which has been very good for the

business. There is expected fewer cars per household (average 2.4 today) but the overall number will continue to increase due to increasing population.

Global market (overall sales 92.1m) is strong, driven by the Asian region with approx. 25% growth from China and India, US still holds number 2 spot.

– Maga (Make America Great Again):

1. Trade policy (NAFTA) – no job losses within this industry has been caused by NAFTA, which means no impact on current job levels expected only

movement. Mexico is actually the one which has been affected most negatively by NAFTA: 1) Still high unemployment; 2) Moderate economic growth;

3) Wages low; 4) Poverty high. If jobs would increase due to change in NAFTA it would not be the Detroit area, but the Sunbelt, which would benefit.

One thing that NAFTA potentially would impact is tariffs, which would put negotiation at risk – history shows that tariffs never work

2. Regulatory policy – especially fuel economy – is discussed and it seems like regulation will be relaxed a bit

3. Tax – no huge impact expected within this industry

– The problem with cars:

1. Consume 50% gasoline

2. Congest – take up land for parking, roads; currently 1.4bn cars on the road and finally many wasted hours in a car (productivity down)

3. Pollute – number one pollution factor

4. Cars kill – 1.2m deaths yearly (war + murders combined) and is the number one death cause among the age group 15-29

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – Continuing growing market especially the Asian region

– New jobs within new technology not old manufacturing jobs will bring Detroit/rest of the region back on track

– New types of cars

– Focus on Public transportation should/must be discussed more in the future to address both the environmental issues as well as the problems with cars

Make America (n Automotive) Great Again Mr John Sousanis, Managing Director, Wards Automotive

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Agenda






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• Session focus and take-aways – Trump has manged to appeal to the population in a manner no one else has. Most Americans across the political spectrum primarily cares about having a

job, being able to take care of family and envisaging a secure retirement

− Democrats need to address this (and probably find a conservative candidate that can reach across the middle)

− Party leadership has aged – a generational shift is needed

− Current crop of young democrats is being seen as “too narrow”

− The spilt between the wings of the party is very large currently

− There will be a transitional period with some sense of vacuum

– Expectation is that Democrats will win the House of Reps

– Democrats will support a raise of debt ceiling, but not the proposed tax reform. Only a watered down reform is likely to be enacted

– Widely accepted across political spectrum that Affordable Care Act has flaws that Democrats would see addressed via amendments

– Trump has very low support in congress

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – One scenario is that Democrats find a conservative, patriotic, free enterprise oriented candidate whom will be able to challenge Trump in the next election

=> ought to have positive effect on US long term growth and macro economy

– Another scenario is that a populist liberal will be the candidate in which case, Trump is expected to win re-election

– The likelihood that congress finds a way to function properly in near term is low

Issues and Politics in Washington: A Democratic View The Honorable Donna Edwards, Senior Fellow, Brennan Institute of Justice

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• Session focus and take-aways – The republicans do not relate positively to the way Mr. Trump is running his presidency. Mr. Gregg states it is dangerous giving people with extremist or

minority views ‘a big microphone’, as people potentially might confuse the messages from these people as being the common view of all people – this

comment is obviously pointing towards the way Mr. Trump uses social medias for communication of important political issues.

– Mr. Gregg expects a tax bill to be passed. It will not be a big tax reform, but congress will approve a tax bill (cut) before March 2018 in which case it will

have retroactive effect from the beginning of 2018. The tax bill will as usual run for 10 years

– Mr. Gregg believes Mr. Trump will be re-elected. This is primarily because of the democrats not being able to produce a serious candidate to run against

Mr. Trump

– There seem to be a perception in the US that Europe is wrongly accusing global American companies for tax evasion.

– The debt ceiling issue will be handled and Mr. Trump will most likely again turn towards the Democrats for support. In general Mr. Trump is expected to get

more of his policy implemented by negotiating bilateral with different parts of congress.

– There will be no Mexican wall built

Issues & politics in Washington: A Republican View The Honorable Judd Gregg, Opinion Columnist, The Hill

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• Session focus and take-aways – Libertarian focus on a less regulated economy, a competitive and a better economy

− The government should only spend money on things that are covered by the constitution

– Obama administration introduced to much new regulation. The Trump administration has been very successful in using the “Congressional Review Act”

(1996) in rolling back 14 pieces of regulation.

− When asked about if all regulation is bad: Some regulation is needed, but should be compared to the costs.

– The Paris Accord would have had a huge negative effect on the economy, so he is very happy that the US left

− He agreed that green tech needs to be evolved, but it should be driven by the market (demand)

− Climate changes are real and probably also caused by humans, but there is nothing we can do about it

− We don’t have the money to subsidize green tech. They should be able to survive on their own in the market place

– The tax reform is a reform: The current tax bill will be greatly simplified by removing a number of reductions that only benefit the wealthy.

− Expects the House to pass a tax bill in October. But the House is the easy lift. It’s going to be a larger challenge in the Senate as some senators don’t

like Trump.

– We need to run a responsible fiscal policy and we don’t need military spending at current highs

– A huge supporter of free trade and do not agree with the Trump administration on introducing tariffs and do not like the tone from the president (“Get

pissed off at the robots, not the Chinese)

– “Trump is transactional driven and will likely sign anything you put in front of him just so he can claim a victory”

– Bernie Sanders is a crackpot who believes in unicorns and fairy dust

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – There will be a tax reform

– The deregulation path is a great success for the Trump administration

– The tone regarding trade policy is not positive – we need more free trade

The Trump agenda in Washington Mr. Jason Pye, Vice President, Legislative Affairs, FreedomWorks

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• Session focus and take-aways – Rustbelt had local economic stagnation

– Bubble on prices on education – leading to even higher prices and lower output

– State of flux – Americas position in the world is changing

– Competitive threat from East Asia

– Trump was described as a strong communicator – marketeer

– 2 themes from the Trump campaign

− Degrading the opponents

− Vocal on overregulation and the need to deregulate

– Trump’s plan was not a plan but more ideas and a bias

– Was positive on the administration due to hiring of very strong candidates

– Still short staffed in the treasury department

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – Mr Lassman is positive on the opportunities for the US economy due to 3 factors

− Confidence is high

− Available energy

− Capital access and flows

– Trump moving forward on all 3 points

– Deregulation gaining traction and the most important victory for the administration

− Rolled back 18 regulations in 6 months using a rule that had only been used ones previously

Restoring American Competitiveness: The Trump Plan Mr. Kent Lassman, President, Competetive Enteprise Institute

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• Session focus and take-aways – Focus on US relationship with NATO, Europe and Russia.

– Trump has been very vocal and outspoken in his rhetoric about NATO and his expectations to the European countries. The European countries seems to

have understood the message, and now a handful of countries will contribute with the target 2%. Trump’s intense focus has probably helped and had an

impact, however, the pressure on the European countries to contribute more started before Trump starting his presidency.

– Regardless of rhetoric from Trump, US has increased it’s defence spending’s in Europe by USD 1bn during 2017.

– The overall relationship to the European countries is fragmented. Some countries has shown up and is trying to position themselves, while countries as

Germany, France and Turkey are more hesitant.

– Russia is a hot topic and the political turbulence is increasing – every day a new issues seems to pop up. Several sanctions against Russia has been put in

place. Trump is more hesitant and would like to soften this, but it is unlikely he will get it through the political system.

– North Korea: Yet they are not in a position to put together a nuclear weapon, which can reach the US. However the situation is taking out a lot of oxygen

from the defence system. US trying to put pressure on the regime via China, but for the time being China seems hesitant to do something (a concern of Xi

is a huge immigration crisis).

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – In general the relation between US and Europe is better than one could imagine on the back of the loud rhetoric from Trump towards Europe on the

defence spending’s. With the strained relationship between US and Germany, Macron seems to have obtained the position as the go-to-guy in Europe.

– Congress and the President not aligned on the handling of Russia.

– Not as such any good answers on how to handle North Korea, but threatening North Korea via social media is probably not a clever move.

– The conflict on Syria is not going to be resolved anytime soon. A potential stance from the US could be to take a position outside Syria, and focus on the

protection of the allied instead.

US Relations with Europe and Russia Ms. Lisa Sawyer Samp, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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• Session focus and take-aways – Currently the new tax reforms are behind schedule, right now the House has past the resolution, which leaves the senate to approve, this will then result in

a blueprint approval. But the numbers simply do not make sense and is actually a huge joke, due to the fact that this is essentially just a process approval

not a blueprint and the goal is to get a simple majority tax reforms passed, which do not require a 60% approval. The larger issue is how to implement this?

– 9/11 changed budgets completely going from a surplus to the current deficit. The main driver of the deficit is medical, social security etc., but the largest

concern is actually the accumulation of the deficit – public debt is 77% of the GDP, historical average level is approx.40%. Moreover 60% of the debt is

owned by foreign investors, which means that to some degree the US has lost their independence due to large dependency on foreign investors

– Two main concerns right now on Capital Hill:

1. The importance of passing a new law to raise the debt ceiling, which will require negotiation among the parties. 60 votes are needed and the time

frame is suspended to December 8

2. Defense vs. non-defense (infrastructure, education, TSA, agriculture etc. is currently less than 12% of total spending). A proposal to raise defense

budget by USD 550bn is presented but non-defense budget needs to go in the same direction, the increase in spending on defense can`t be taken

from non-defense

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US - Debt is a tax on new generations

- Deficit will continue to grow

- Dynamic effects will come from tax reforms and focus should be on corporate tax reforms, but it can`t be done without household tax reforms as well

- Interest rates – when they come back to normal levels the number one budget driver will be servicing the interest payments on the debt

- Default should not be an option even though Trump has outlined that default can be a possibility

- Rating agencies are starting to react on the current situation and has started to send signals

The Outlook for U.S. Federal Spending and Debt Mr. G. William Hoagland, Senior Vice President, Bipartisan Policy Center

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• Session focus and take-aways – China’s role on the global scene

− Chinese don’t see western economic systems as the way forward.

− China is NOT socialistic but nationalistic.

− They think and believe that China should have a leading/ central role in global trade. Interesting to note that the TPP is VERY unpopular in the US (only

35% is positive towards it). The US retraction from the global scene is a cheap opening for China to play a larger role.

− Important to remember that on a lot of issues we are able to work with the Chinese.

− The Chinese trade tradition and their view on intellectual property rights will have to change or the global rules for trades will have to be changed to

take account for how China is acting.

– China’s internal challenges

− Stability is key for Xi Jinping and as long as economic and life quality growth is strong, there is strong support for the current leadership. Xi is continuing

to concentrate power and therefore there is a risk of bad decisions being made.

− China has a huge debt and we also see that new debt as a decreasing return in terms of increase in GDP

− As the Chinese get more and more wealthy they start to require more in terms of quality of life. The growing environmental challenges is something that

Xi is focusing on.

− Aging population will become a problem in 20-30 years. One child policy has left China with too few young people

− Nevertheless it is very unlikely that China will suffer a shock in near future. They have the tools, the money and the resolve to deal with any problems.

– China and North Korea

− China don’t see the benefit of doing an economic intervention and they don’t have much political influence on North Korea.

− A war is very unlikely as the US cannot sacrifice x millions of South Korean casualties to keep NYC out of reach of ICBMs carrying nuclear warheads.

− Although very difficult the only solutions is US led negotiations with the North Korean regime

• Conclusions for macro economy and/or financial markets – global or US – No real estate bubble or risk for a Chinese collapse in the near future

– No war on the Korean peninsula

– China will continue to grow to reach the 2020 GDP target

An insider’s perspective on U.S.-China relations Mr. David H. Rank, Former Charge’ d’Affaires US Embassy in Beijing

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Thank you!

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Senior Director, Head of Research Denmark & Global Research

Niels From

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