u.s. trade overview 2016

U.S. Trade Overview2016

April 2017

Industry & Analysis’ (I&A) staff of industry, trade and economic analysts devise and implement international trade, investment, and export promotion strategies that strengthen the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. These initiatives unlock export and investment opportunities for U.S. businesses by combining in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis with ITA’s industry relationships.

For more information, visit www.trade.gov/industry

I&A is part of the International Trade Administration, whose mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.

This report was prepared by the Data Analysis team within I&A’s Office of Trade and Economic Analysis. Questions or comments may be directed to:

Natalie SorokaOffice of Trade and Economic AnalysisTrade Policy and Analysis, Industry and AnalysisInternational Trade [email protected] 202.482.5839

The data in this report is current as of the date it was retrieved, and does not reflect any subsequent revisions or updates. See the Source Notes for more information on which releases were used for particular data sets.

http://www.trade.gov/industry

mailto:natalie.soroka%40trade.gov?subject=Trade%20Overview%20Inquiry

Department of Commerce | International Trade Administration

For More Information:

U.S. Trade Statistics:

Local Area Data:

Jobs and Exporters:

Additional Reports and Information:

• TradeStats Express - National and state-level datahttp://tse.export.gov

• Trade Policy Information System - dynamic reports covering national, state, and global trade datahttp://tpis.trade.gov

• Metropolitan Export Series - Export data by metro areahttp://tse.export.gov/metro

• Metro Report - Reports and data for exports from U.S. metropolitan areashttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/metroreport

• State reports - Reports highlighting goods exports, exporters, and foreign investment in each U.S. statehttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/statereports

• Jobs Supported by Exports - National and state-level detail, as well as by destination or product/industryhttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment

• Exporter Database - Characteristics of U.S. goods exportershttp://tse.export.gov/edb

• Reference Information - Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and morehttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/referenceinfo

• Trade Statistics - Access all statistical reports and databaseshttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/tradestatistics

• Trade Policy and Analysis - Home page for Trade Policy and Analysishttp://www.trade.gov/mas/ian

April 2017

http://tse.export.gov










Department of Commerce | International Trade AdministrationApril 2017

Trade and the Global Economy

• Globally, trade accounts for approximately 60% of gross domestic product (GDP).

• Worldwide international trade slowed to 1.7% in 2016, but is projected to rise between 1.8% and 3.1% in 2017.

• In 2016, global GDP growth outpaced trade growth for the first time in fifteen years.

• Since 2011, real U.S. export growth has been near the world average, outpacing the average for all advanced economies.

U.S. accounted for

10%of world exports

• The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for goods.

• Among top U.S. export markets, GDP growth remains subdued, with a mixed outlook for 2017.

Global trade volume grew by

1.7%in 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

China Mexico United Kingdom Euro area United States Canada Japan

Perc

ent c

hang

e (c

onst

ant p

rice

s) Change in GDPTop U.S. Export Markets

2016

2017

2018

Source: IMF WEO

1.9% 1.8%

0.8%

1.4%1.9%

2.5%

0.9%

4.5%

1.8%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

World United States Japan Euro Area Otheradvanced

economies

Emerging Asia Central &Eastern Europe

Latin America Africa & MiddleEastA

vera

ge G

row

th R

ate,

YTD

201

1-YT

D

2016

Goods Export Growth, 2011-2016*Seasonally Adjusted by Volume for Selected Regions

*Latest data available is YTD through November 2016Source: CPB World Trade Monitor

1.8

2.4

2.8 2.7

1.7

3.1

2.22.5 2.4 2.2

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 (P) 2017 (P)

Perc

ent C

hang

e

World GDP and Trade Volume Growth

World goods trade Real GDP

(P) indicates a projected figureSource: WTO

Forecast range


U.S. Trade in 2016

• Exports as a share of GDP fell again in 2016, due to increased personal consumption playing a larger role in U.S. GDP.

• The trade deficit accounted for -2.7% of GDP in 2016, its lowest share since 2009.

• U.S. exports of goods and services decreased 2.3 percent in 2016 to $2.21 trillion, reflecting a decrease in both goods and services exports.

• Imports decreased 1.8 percent to $2.71 trillion reflecting a decrease in goods imports; services imports increased.

• In 2016, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit totaled $502.3 billion, a 0.4 percent increase from the $500.4 billion trade deficit in 2015.

• Goods account for the majority of U.S. trade, generally driving both exporting and importing activity.

U.S. exports totaled

$2.21 trillion

in 2016

Exports accounted for

12%of U.S. GDP

-$502.3

$2,209.4

$2,711.7

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Billi

ons

of U

S D

olla

rs

U.S. International Trade

Trade BalanceRecessionTotal ExportsTotal Imports

Source: Census Bureau

-5.6 -5.0 -4.9

-2.7 -3.4 -3.7 -3.5 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7

10.7 11.512.5

11.012.4

13.6 13.6 13.6 13.712.6 12.0

16.2 16.517.4

13.815.8

17.3 17.1 16.6 16.615.4 14.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Shar

e of

U.S

. Gro

ss D

omes

tic

Prod

uct

(GD

P)

Trade as a Share of U.S. GDP

Net Exports Exports ImportsSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis


Top U.S. Export Markets

• Canada was the top U.S. goods export market in 2016, led by sales of vehicles & parts and machinery.

• U.S. goods exports were a record high to 18 countries in 2016.

• Goods exports to Vietnam showed the largest dollar growth, up by $3.1 billion in 2016.

U.S. goods exports to

Vietnam grew

40%in 2016

Source: US Census Bureau

$266.8

$231.0

$115.8

$63.3

$55.4

$49.4

$42.3

$40.4

$34.9

$32.3

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Canada

Mexico

China

Japan

UnitedKingdom

Germany

Korea

Netherlands

Hong Kong

Belgium

Billions of U.S. dollars

Top 10 U.S. Goods Export Markets

43%

3%1%

17%

9%7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Vietnam France Japan Qatar DominicanRepublic

Ireland

Percent Change, 2015-2016

Mill

ions

of U

S D

olla

rs

Top Growth Markets, by Dollar Change

Dollar Change (left)

Percent Change (right)

• Since 2006, U.S. goods exports have grown 42%, with most of this growth occuring with Mexico and China.

• Among the top 30 export markets, goods exports to Vietnam have grown the fastest over the past 10 years, up by more than 800%.U.S. goods

exports have more than

doubledto China since

2006


U.S. Goods Trade

• Goods exports totaled $1.46 trillion in 2016, led by sales of capital goods.• Lower global commodity prices continued to play a significant role in the

decline in U.S. exports in 2016. In addition, U.S. exporters faced headwinds from overall weak global demand and a worldwide trade slowdown.

Goods Exports, 2016

Values shown in billions of US dollars

Source: US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Although U.S. goods exports declined in nominal (price included) values, in real terms (adjusted to remove the impact of prices) they remained flat, with exports of petroleum products, semiconductors, soybeans, natural gas liquids, and corn showing the largest growth.

• U.S. imports of crude oil, by value, decreased 19.5 percent in 2016 to $101.3 billion, entirely due to a decrease in price.

• The average price of a barrel of crude oil was 23.6% less than the 2015 average. This was the lowest annual price since 2004.

Foods, feeds, & beverages

0.53% Industrial supplies

0.33%

Capital goods-0.76%

Automotive-0.04%

Consumer goods0.01%

Other goods0.30%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Perc

enta

ge P

oint

Con

trib

utio

n to

O

vera

ll Re

al E

xpor

t Gro

wth

Contributions to Percent Change in Real Exports and Real Imports of Goods and Services by Type of Product

Capital Goods$519.4

Industrial Supplies$397.8

Consumer Goods$193.6

Automotive$150.0

Foods, Feeds, &

Beverages$130.7

Other Goods$63.2

Goods account for

2/3of U.S. exports

The trade deficit in petroleum

products was the lowest since

1998Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


• Services exports totaled $750.0 billion in 2016, down slightly from the previous year. U.S. services imports increased 2.7% to $501.8 billion.

• Major services export categories in 2016 were travel, for all purposes (a record $207.9 billion); other business services (a record $139.9 billion); charges for the use of intellectual property ($120.3 billion); financial services ($95.1 billion); and transport ($84.7 billion).

Services Exports, 2016

Values shown in billions of US dollars

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

• The U.S. had record exports in several services categories in 2016 including other business services; travel, for all purposes; maintenance & repairs; telecommunications, computer, and information services; and insurance services.

• The U.S. maintained a surplus in services trade in 2016. However, this surplus decreased by 5.5 percent, largely due to higher imports, such as increased travel imports, and lower exports of charges for the use of intellectual property and financial services.

U.S. Services Trade

The U.S. has had a services trade

surplus since

1971Travel$207.9

Other Business Services$139.9

Charges for the Use of IP

$120.3

Financial Services

$95.1

Transport$84.7

Telecomm., Computer, & Information

Services$37.7

Maintenance & Repair$26.3

Government$19.8

Insurance$17.9

Other Business*

Services$5,215.0

Travel*$3,344.0

Maintenance &

Repair*$2,282.0

TCI Services*$1,766.0

Insurance*$740.0

Governm

ent-$462.0

Transport-$2,506.0

Charges for the Use of IP

-$4,350.0

Financial Services-$7,315.0

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Mill

ions

of U

S D

olla

rs

Change in Services Exports by Type of Service, 2015-2016

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Indicates record export value in 2016


Jobs Supported by Exports

U.S. exports supported

11.5 millionjobs in 2015

Africa:229 thousand jobs

Asia & Pacific:3.4 million jobs

Europe:3.1 million jobs

North America*:2.8 million jobs

Middle East:510 thousand jobs

South & Central America**:

1.0 million jobs

Caribbean:469 thousand jobs

• U.S. goods exports supported 6.7 million jobs in 2015 and service exports supported 4.8 million U.S. jobs.

• Each billion dollars of exports supported 5,967 U.S. jobs.• Goods exports from Texas, California, Washington, Illinois, and New York

supported 41% of all U.S. jobs supported by goods exports in 2015.

Jobs Supported by Total Goods Exports,Ten States Whose Goods Exports Supported the Most Jobs

California:706,969 jobs

Indiana:190,511 jobs

New York: 315,221 jobs

Georgia:198,488 jobs

Florida:243,755 jobsTexas:

1,046,549 jobs

Washington:375,009 jobs

Ohio:260,436 jobs

Michigan:270,240 jobs

Illinois:333,674 jobs

• Exports to Canada supported the greatest number of jobs: 1.6 million.• Between 2009 and 2015, the total number of jobs supported by U.S. exports

grew by almost 1.9 million. The largest increases in the number of jobs supported during the time period were supported by exports to China followed by Mexico, Canada, Korea and Brazil.

The number of jobs supported by exports has increased by

1.9 million2009-2015

Source: Hall & Rasmussen, “Jobs Supported by State Goods Exports 2015”

Source: Rasmussen & Xu, “Jobs Supported by Export Destination 2015”


U.S. Exporters

• Nearly 295,000 U.S. companies exported and almost 197,000 imported goods in 2015

• Nearly 98% of these exporters were small- or medium-sized with fewer than 500 employees. SMEs accounted for 97% of identified importers in 2015.

• SMEs were responsible for a third of goods trade (by value) in 2015.Nearly

408,000U.S. companies

exported or imported goods

in 2015

• Most SMEs (59%) only export to a single market, while 74% of large firms

export to multiple countries

• The majority of exporters are non-manufacturing firms such as wholesalers.

• California is home to more than 70,000 SME exporters, the highest among the

50 states. Other top states are Florida, Texas, New York, and Illinois.

Number of Companies by Size

SMEs accounted for

27.4%of overall goods export growth in

2014

Source: Exporter Database

Source: Exporter Database

Large Exporters

6,999

SME Exporters287,835

Large Importers

5,584

SME Importers191,341

Source Notes:

Trade in the Global Economy

U.S. Trade

Top U.S. Export Markets

Jobs Supported by Exports

• Trade Statistics and Outlook, World Trade OrganizationReleased September 2016

• World Economic Outlook, International Monetary FundReleased October 2016

• World Development Indicators, World Bank

Retrieved March 2017

• Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau Released February 2017

• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), Bureau of Economic Analysis Released January 2017

• U.S. Trade in Goods and Services, Bureau of Economic AnalysisReleased February 2017

• Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau Released February 2017

• “Jobs Supported by Exports: 2015 Update,” Chris Rasmussen, International Trade Administration

Released April 2016• “Jobs Supported by State Exports 2015,” Jeffrey Hall and Chris Rasmussen,

International Trade Administration Released May 2016

• “Jobs Supported by Export Destination 2015,” Chris Rasmussen and Susan Xu, International Trade Administration

Released November 2016

U.S. Exporters • “Profile of U.S. Importing and Exporting Companies, 2015,” U.S. Census Bureau

Released April 2017• Exporter Database, International Trade Administration

Released September 2016


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www.trade.gov/mas/ian

The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.

u.s. trade overview 2016

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