us universities and academic science careers: storm clouds ......storm clouds on the horizon for...
TRANSCRIPT
1 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
US Universities and Academic Science Careers:
Storm Clouds on the Horizon
For Presentation at:
COSEPUP, National Academies of Science:
The Arc of the Academic Research Career: Issues and Implications for U.S. Science
and Engineering Leadership
2 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Acknowledgements / Disclaimers
Gender Differences in Academic Careers joint with:
Shulamit Kahn, Boston University
Future of the Biomedical Workforce joint with:
Bruce Weinberg, Ohio State University
Wally Schaffer and Dorit Zuk, NIH
Ginther and Kahn’s research was funded in part by NIH Grant
R01-AG036820 and Ginther received funding from NSF Grant
SES-0353703.
The use of NSF data does not imply NSF endorsement of the research, research methods, or conclusions contained in this report.
3 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Overview
Examine how academic career path has evolved 1980-2008 • PhD Student production • Academic & Non-Academic employment • Tenured & Tenure track jobs • Non-track jobs
Case study of Biomedical Careers Early academic careers
• How the postdoc affects subsequent career outcomes.
Some thoughts about the challenges facing academic science in the near- and long-term.
4 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Data
Much of this work is based on the 1980-2008 waves of the Survey of Doctorate Recipients. • 2010 wave just became available, but it is not
included in this analysis
Biomedical Data supplemented with information from the BLS’s Occupational Employment Statistics and other sources.
When thinking about Academic Science, important to recognize that each field has a separate labor market.
5 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Data
Science is grouped into four broad categories:
• Life Science Biomedical
Agriculture and Environmental
• Physical Science Chemistry and Physics
Geosciences
Math and Computer Science
• Social Science Psychology & Other Social Sciences
• Engineering
6 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Doctorates Awarded by Field
Since the 1990s, Life Science has awarded the most doctorates (driven by biomedicine). Social science awards a high number of doctorates but growth has been flat. Engineering doctorates awarded since 1980 have more than tripled (Source
1980-2011 Survey of Earned Doctorates).
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Number
DoctoratesAwardedbyField
Engineering LifeSciences PhysicalScience SocScience
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Growth
GrowthinDoctoratesAwardedbyField
7 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Academic and Non-Academic Employment by Field
With the exception of Life Sciences, the majority of US trained doctorates are employed in the non-academic sector (Source 1981-2008 Survey
of Doctorate Recipients).
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
EngineeringEmployment
Non-academic
Academic
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
LifeScienceEmployment
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
PhysicalScienceEmployment
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
SocialScienceEmployment
8 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Academic and Non-Academic Employment Growth
Non-academic employment growth accounts for the majority of jobs for doctorates since the 1980s. (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients).
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
Growth
AcademicEmploymentGrowth
Engineering
LifeScience
PhysicalScience
SocialScience
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
Growth
Non-AcademicEmploymentGrowth
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Growth
GrowthinDoctoratesAwarded
9 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Employment Growth
Academic Employment Growth has been much lower than Non-Academic Employment Growth
However, PhD Production for Life and Physical Sciences has doubled and for Engineering has tripled.
Physical Science and Engineering are producing more PhDs than jobs available in the US
• Are Foreign PhDs returning to home countries?
Life Science PhD and Employment growth are roughly equal
Social Science producing PhD growth less than employment growth
10 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Tenure Track and Non-track Academic by Field
Life Science and Social Science are the largest fields. Growth evident in non-track positions (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients).
.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
EngineeringAcademicEmployment
Non-Track
TenureTrack
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
LifeScienceAcademicEmployment
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
PhysicalSci.AcademicEmployment
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
SocialScienceAcademicEmployment
11 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Tenure Track and Non-track Academic Growth
With the exception of Engineering, Tenure Track Faculty Growth has been essentially flat.
The overwhelming majority of growth has been in non-track academic jobs.
PhD production has outpaced academic employment growth in every field except Social Science. (Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate
Recipients).
.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
Growth
TenureTrackFacultyGrowth1981-2008
Engineering
LifeScience
PhysicalScience
SocialScience
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320062008
Growth
Non-TrackAcademicGrowth1981-2008
12 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
The Academic Labor Market
In academia, Supply of PhDs has outstripped Demand.
While the non-academic sector has absorbed many of these doctorates, given the recent economic crisis and jobless recovery, it is not clear that it will continue to do so.
The gap between Supply and Demand will likely grow larger given the current financial issues facing academic institutions.
13 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Biomedical Research Workforce ACD
Working Group (ACD BMW) Working Group co-chaired by Shirley Tilghman and Sally
Rockey.
Charge
• Develop a model for a sustainable and diverse U.S.
biomedical research workforce that can inform decisions
about training of the optimal number of people for the
appropriate types of positions that will advance science and
promote health.
• Based on this analysis and input from the extramural
community, make recommendations for actions that NIH
should take to support a future sustainable biomedical
infrastructure.
• Reported to the ACD in June 2012.
• http://acd.od.nih.gov/Biomedical_research_wgreport.pdf
• Supplementary Web Site
http://report.nih.gov/investigators_and_trainees/ACD_BWF
13
14 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Biomedical Workforce
Presenting Results from that report and its supplemental material on:
• Salaries
• Job Match
• Research Space
• Early Career Issues
15 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Biomedical Analysis: Field Definitions
Basic Biomedical—(Biochemistry, Bioinformatics, Biological
Sciences, Biomedical Engineering, Biophysics, Biotechnology, Cell
Biology, Developmental Biology/Embryology, Endocrinology, Genetics,
Immunology, Microbiology, Molecular Biology, Neurosciences, Nutritional
Science, Parasitology, Pharmacology, Pharmaceutical Chemistry,
Physiology, Toxicology, Veterinary Medicine, Zoology )
Clinical Sciences (Biometrics and Biostatistics, Environmental
Health, Epidemiology, Exercise Science, Health Sciences, Health
Administration, Nursing, Pharmacy, Public Health, Rehabilitation Services,
Physicians in Academic Medicine)
Behavioral & Social Sciences (Anthropology,
Audiology/Speech Pathology, Demography/Population Studies, Sociology,
Psychology)
Other Life Sciences (Agricultural and Food Sciences,
Environmental Life Sciences
Chemistry
16 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Comparison: Median PhD/Median
Bachelor’s Salary, by Field
Source: NSF SESTAT, prepared for ACD BMW
Early career Biomedical PhDs have the lowest PhD/Bachelor’s
salary ratio
There is no salary difference between fields later in career
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 2006 2008
Med
ian
Ph
D/B
A S
alar
y R
atio
0-9 Years After PhD
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1993 1995 1997 1999 2003 2006 2008
10-25 Years After PhD
Behavioral and Social Sciences Biological Sciences
Chemistry Other Life Sciences
17 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Comparison: Salary Across Broad
Fields by Years of Experience
Years Since
PhD Bio Med Comp
Math Physical
Science Social
Science Engineer
0 51,594 66,804 57,775 55,532 72,992
10 87,766 99,972 94,180 87,853 113,314
30 123,959 109,277 122,148 107,321 133,292
Starting salaries are the lowest in biomedicine, but there is some
catch-up late career.
Engineers have the highest salaries over their careers.
Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, prepared for ACD BMW
18 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Job Match: Relationship between science
and engineering PhD field and occupation
Across S&E PhD fields, 50-80% of graduates are employed in
occupations that closely match their PhD field.
Source: NSF Survey of Doctoral Recipients,
prepared for the ACD BMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008
Biological/LifeSciences
Engineering Math and ComputerScience
Physical Sciences Psychology andSocial Science
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ph
Ds
19 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
70.75
59.29
79.26 77.77 78.64 77.44
55.14 52
73.32 69.38
22.79
31.93
17.32 18.39 16.04 17.23
34.55 37.27
20.02 23.36
6.46 8.78 3.42 3.84 5.32 5.33
10.31 10.73 6.66 7.26
1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008 1997 2008
Biomedical Sciences Clinical Sciences Behavioral and SocialSciences
Chemistry Other life sciences
Closely related Somewhat related Not related
Job Match: Relationship between PhD
Field and Occupation
Source: NSF Survey of Doctoral Recipients,
Prepared for the ACD BMW
Chemistry has the lowest proportion of PhDs working in a closely
related field
Within Life Sciences, Biological Sciences fields have the lowest
proportion of PhDs working in a related occupation.
20 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
University Assignable Research
Space, by Field
Source: NSF Survey of Science and
Engineering Research Facilities, -
prepared for the ACD BMW
Assignable space increased for most fields, and in particular
in the biological sciences.
Who filled that research space? Non-track scientists.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Ne
t as
sign
able
sq
uar
e f
ee
t, in
mill
ion
s
Agricultural sciences(1)
Biological sciences(2)
Earth, atmospheric, andocean sciences(4)Engineering
Medical sciences(6)
Physical sciences(7)
Psychology
NIH Doubling Period
21 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Early Careers of Academic Scientists
Many of the changes resulting from the NIH’s the Biomedical Research Workforce Working Group focused on PhD and Postdoctoral training.
Here I present some analysis of the postdoc as well as information on the demand for biomedical researchers.
22 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Training: US Graduate Degrees Awarded, by Field
Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates
Stable production of Chemistry PhDs since 1970 and MDs since 1980
Stable production of Clinical Sciences and Behavioral PhDs since 1998
Increasing production of Biomedical PhDs that coincides with end of NIH
Doubling (1999-2003)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Nu
mb
er
of
MD
s A
war
de
d
Nu
mb
er
of
Ph
Ds
Aw
ard
ed
Basic Biomedical PhDs Behavioral and Social Sciences PhDs Clinical Sciences PhDs
Chemistry PhDs MDs
Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, prepared for the ACD BMW
23 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Training: US PhDs with Postdoctoral
Research Plans
Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, prepared for ACD BMW
Relatively stable percentage of biomedical PhDs planning postdocs since
mid-1980s, even with increasing number of PhDs produced
Increasing number of social sciences PhDs planning postdocs
Jump in percentage of clinical sciences PhDs planning postdocs
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000N
um
be
r o
f P
hD
s P
lan
nin
g P
ost
do
c
Biomedical Sciences
Behavioral and Social Sciences
Chemistry
Clinical Sciences
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ph
Ds
Pla
nn
ing
Po
std
oc
Biomedical Sciences
Behavioral and Social Sciences
Chemistry
Clinical Sciences
24 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Po
std
oct
ora
tes Federal Fellowship
Federal Traineeship
Federal Research Grant
Non-Federal Support
Postdoctorates, by Field and Type of
Support
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000N
um
be
r o
f P
ost
do
cto
rate
s
Biomedical
Behavioral & Social Sciences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Nu
mb
er
of
Po
std
oct
ora
tes Chemistry
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Nu
mb
ers
of
Po
sdo
cto
rate
s
Clinical Science
Field-specific volume of postdocs; only in Chemistry are numbers stable
Field-specific mix of federal and non-federal grant support Source: NSF Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs, prepared for ACD BMW
25 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 2008
Pe
rce
nt
of
Bio
me
dic
al P
hD
s in
Po
std
oct
ora
l R
ese
arch
er
Po
siti
on
s
Survey year
1-2 years since Ph.D
3-4 years since Ph.D
5-6 years since Ph.D
7-8 years since Ph.D
More than 8 years since Ph.D
NIH Doubling
Training: US-Trained Biomedical PhDs in
Postdoctoral Researcher Positions, by Years
Since Degree
Over 60% of Biomedical PhDs started their careers in
postdocs in the 1990s. The percentage taking postdocs fell
during the doubling.
Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, prepared for ACD BMW
26 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Training: Fields with more postdocs
Fields where postdocs are more likely (top 10): genetics developmental biology
Biochemistry molecular biology
immunology cellular biology
Endocrinology biophysics
Microbiology neuroscience
→7 are in the top 10 fields of %PhDs NIH funds as postdocs
Fields where postdocs are less likely: biometrics/stats pharmaceutical science
nursing rehabilitation
kinesiology health science, other
public health environmental health
veterinary medicine health sciences general
→ 9 are in the bottom 10 fields of %PhDs NIH funds as postdocs
Source: NIH ACD BMW report
27 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Biomedical Doctorate Academic
Career Milestones, by Age
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
Ave
rage
Age
PhD First Tenure Track Position First R01 First RPG (incl. K)
Source: NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates and NIH IMPAC II, Prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report
There is a increasing divergence between age at PhD and age at
first R01/RPG for biomedical doctorates
There appears to be a decoupling of tenure track jobs and first NIH
R01/RPG
28 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Age at PhD, First Non-Postdoc Job & First Tenure
Track Job by Broad Field
Gap between age at PhD and age at First Non-Postdoc Job is largest in Life Sciences because of prevalence of postdocs.
.
25
30
35
40
45
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
Med
ianAge
PhDYear
EngineeringPhD
FirstJob
TenureTrackJob
25
30
35
40
45
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
Med
ianAge
PhDYear
LifeScience
25
30
35
40
45
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
Med
ianAge
PhDYear
PhysicalScience
25
30
35
40
45
19801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006
Med
ianAge
PhDYear
SocialScience
Source 1981-2008 Survey of Doctorate Recipients)
29 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Age at First PhD, First Non Postdoctoral Job, First
Tenure Track Job, for US trained Doctorates
Source: Survey of Earned Doctorates
prepared for ACD BMW
Gap between age at PhD and age at First Non-Postdoc Job is largest in Biomedical Sciences because of postdocs.
30 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Biomedical Job Creation Data
Used data from the Survey of Doctorate
Recipients
Combined with Occupational Employment
Statistics
• Estimated share of PhDs in occupations based
on SDR
• Data available 2002 – 2011
Examined levels and the number of jobs
added each year
OES estimates suggest that the demand
for biomedical PhDs has declined
precipitously
31 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Estimated PhD Employment in Biomedical
Occupations 1993 - 2011
Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients and BLS Occupation Employment Statistics
SDR level of employment is higher (and more accurate)
However, SDR and OES trends are similar in overlapping
years
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1993199519971999200120032005200720092011
Employmen
tLevel
SDR
OES
Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, and BLS Occupational Employment Statistics , Prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report
32 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Change in Biomedical Employment Levels
Compared to Doctorates Awarded 1993 - 2011
Source: NSF Survey of Doctorate Recipients, NSF Survey of Earned Doctorates, and BLS Occupation Employment Statistics, prepared for the NIH ACD BMW report
Since 2003 57,541 PhDs awarded compared to ~27,808 biomedical jobs
created.
In 1997 –small gap between employment & PhDs 71% were working in jobs
closely related to field. In 2008 this number dropped to 60%
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Num
berofjo
bsadd
edorlost
SDREmployment
OESEmployment
USPhDs
USPhDs+ForeignPhDs
33 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Storm Clouds Threaten Higher
Education
• Federal and State Funding for Higher Education is
decreasing.
• Decreases in federal research funding may
result in the US losing a generation of scientists
• Decreases in state funding make education less
affordable shutting out lower-income students.
• Emphasis on measuring the Return on Investment
in Higher Education may lead to unintended
consequences.
• Florida proposal to have differentiated tuition by
major (increasing the price of the humanities)
• Federal Research funding is a public good
34 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Academic Science Faces Additional
Headwinds
• Growth in science PhDs being driven by foreign
students and women
• As other nations build academic science
infrastructure we will lose trained students to
other countries including Korea, China and EU.
• Average K-12 student is not well-prepared for
college courses, let alone more challenging courses
in STEM fields
• Science careers (especially biomedical careers) are
unattractive because of lengthy training period and
uncertain job prospects.
• Science is dominated by white men, whereas the
US population is becoming increasingly diverse.
3
4
35 Donna K. Ginther, Ph.D. September 9, 2013
Conclusions
Tenure Track Academic Jobs are becoming
increasingly scarce
• Academic institutions have hired greater
numbers of non-track PhDs compared with
tenure track PhDs.
PhD production in all fields except Social Science is
growing at a faster rate than academic employment in
those fields.
In many fields, match between degree and
employment has decreased
Taken together, this suggests that the supply of STEM
PhDs exceeds demand in many, but not all fields.
The Postdoc has an important impact on subsequent
career outcomes.