u.s.a. basketball is cruising alow-growth world: one … file7/8/2016 · trump’s shadow alarm...

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VOL. CLXV . . . No. 57,317 © 2016 The New York Times Company SUNDAY, AUGUST 7, 2016 WIESBADEN, Germany The pianist starts his show abruptly, with a wail. The words and music are Arabic, but the pain is clear in any language. “How, God?” he sings, “How could God bring you this scourge?” He is performing for a German audience in a quiet German town with fairy-tale spires. But Aeham Ahmad is thinking of his pulver- ized, starving neighborhood in Syria, where a few years ago, be- fore coming to Germany as a refugee, he embarked on a strange career by playing con- certs in the rubble. He jumps up, bobs his head in an impish little bow, and says by way of introduction: “I’m sorry, I’m not a good piano player. I learned in Syria. It’s not like Mo- zart and Bach, but this is the way we play it.” In a Germany deeply torn be- tween embracing and fearing the million migrants who have ar- rived in the past year, Mr. Ahmad, 27, has set himself the task of putting a human face on his fellow refugees. His aim is to ease their integration and maybe even help the millions more, not least his wife and children, whom he left behind. That mission has become more urgent lately, after Germany was shocked by two separate attacks in which refugees linked to the Is- lamic State tried to kill civilians. Only the assailants died, but the attacks have left many Germans angry, anxious and ready to slam the door shut. There is already talk of accelerated expulsions. Onstage, Mr. Ahmad flatters his listeners, reassures them, owns them. He tells of his flight from bombs, hunger and repression. He sings of minarets and church bells “calling for peace.” He de- clares that “terrorism has no reli- gion,” and that refugees come “to build Germany,” not to harm it. “History will remember that Germany has taken in the Mus- lims,” he declares, then leads them in a singalong of “All My Lit- tle Ducks,” the German equiva- lent of “Mary Had a Little Lamb.” He leaves the hall, as usual, in a shower of hugs and selfies. But the next day in his tiny room in the town of Wiesbaden, he lacerates himself over the role he has honed so well: He is “the good refugee,” making “good Ger- mans” feel good about them- selves. He cannot help seeing a touch of minstrel show in his act. He imagines how he might look Syrian Sings to Germans of Sadness, and Hope By ANNE BARNARD Mr. Ahmad, who travels relentlessly to play, in Marburg in May. ILVY NJIOKIKTJIEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES Aeham Ahmad in 2014 in Yar- mouk, Syria. In Germany, he performs to fight stereotypes. RAMI AL-SAYED/A.F.P. — GETTY IMAGES After a disastrous week of feuds and plummeting poll numbers, Republican leaders have con- cluded that Donald J. Trump is a threat to the party’s fortunes and have begun discussing how soon their endangered candidates should explicitly distance them- selves from the presidential nominee. For Republicans in close races, top strategists say, the issue is no longer in doubt. One House Re- publican has already started air- ing an ad vowing to stand up to Mr. Trump if he is elected president, and others are expected to press similar themes in the weeks ahead. In the world of Republican “su- per PACs,” strategists are going even further: discussing adver- tisements that would treat Mr. Trump’s defeat as a given and urge voters to send Republicans to Congress as a check on a Hilla- ry Clinton White House. The dis- cussions were described by offi- cials familiar with the delibera- tions, several of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity about confidential planning. For now, some of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents are simply hoping to avoid what they see as the taint of association with their standard-bearer. Two members of Congress locked in competitive races made themselves scarce when Mr. Trump arrived in their states on Friday. The two, Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Repre- sentative David Young of Iowa, held events elsewhere. Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania, in a conference call with reporters the same day, was less subtle. “Donald Trump is in a category unto himself,” Mr. Toomey said, predicting that his state’s voters “will make a com- G.O.P. CANDIDATES AIMING TO ESCAPE TRUMP’S SHADOW ALARM ABOUT CONGRESS After Week of Feuding, Party Leaders Shift Their Strategy By JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEXANDER BURNS Continued on Page 17 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES Katie Ledecky, in the pool, and her U.S. teammates after a relay in Rio’s first swimming session. Olympic coverage, SportsSunday. A Round of Applause: The Games Have Begun RIO DE JANEIRO — Every four years, the same questions tend to surface before the Sum- mer Olympics: Will the host city be ready? Is Usain Bolt still the world’s fastest man? And what sort of cushy digs will the United States basketball players find for themselves? The Games are underway, Bolt is back to defend his sprinting ti- tles and, once again, the men’s and women’s basketball players from the United States are avoiding the athletes’ village. Carmelo Antho- ny, Kevin Durant, Diana Taurasi and the rest of their high-profile teammates are staying on a lux- ury cruise ship, docked at a pier on the other side of the city. If the team’s lodging seems standoffish, that is by design. U.S.A. Basketball, the organiza- tion that oversees the national men’s and women’s teams, has shunned the athletes’ village since 1992. The team stayed on a ship at the 2004 Games in Athens, then used hotels in Beijing in 2008 and London in 2012. “The boat we’re staying on is very nice, very secluded,” said An- gel McCoughtry, who is playing in her second Olympics. “Let’s be honest — how can our men’s and women’s teams stay in the vil- lage? They would get bombarded, especially the men’s team. They won’t have peace.” The players, particularly the men, are exceedingly well paid as U.S.A. Basketball Is Cruising In Rio. Now, to Take the Court. By ANDREW KEH The U.S. basketball teams are staying on a luxury ship. NIC BOTHMA/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY Continued in SportsSunday, Page 10 One central fact about the global economy lurks just be- neath the year’s remarkable headlines: Economic growth in advanced nations has been weaker for longer than it has been in the lifetime of most peo- ple on earth. The United States is adding jobs at a healthy clip, as a new report showed on Friday, and the unemployment rate is relatively low. But that is happening de- spite a long-term trend of much lower growth, both in the United States and other advanced na- tions, than was evident for most of the post-World War II era. This trend helps explain why incomes have risen so slowly since the turn of the century, especially for those who are not top earners. It is behind the cheap gasoline you put in the car and the ultralow interest rates you earn on your savings. It is crucial to understanding the rise of Donald J. Trump, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the rise of populist movements across Europe. This slow growth is not some new phenomenon, but rather the way it has been for 15 years and counting. In the United States, per-person gross domestic prod- uct rose by an average of 2.2 percent a year from 1947 through 2000 — but since 2001 has aver- aged only 0.9 percent. The econo- mies of Western Europe and Japan have done worse. Over long periods, that shift implies a radically slower rise in living standards. In 2000, per- person G.D.P. — which generally tracks with the average Ameri- can’s income — was about $45,000. If growth in the second half of the 20th century had been as weak as it has been since 2000, that number would have been only about $20,000. To make matters worse, fewer ALow-Growth World: One Key To Persistent Economic Anxiety By NEIL IRWIN In a special section, The Times is publishing an excerpt from “The Underground Railroad” by Colson Whitehead. This Week: A Novel The diaries of a K.G.B. chief shed light on an enduring enigma: What happened to the Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallen- berg, who vanished in 1945? PAGE 6 INTERNATIONAL 4-12 Clues to a World War Mystery Maureen Dowd PAGE 1 SUNDAY REVIEW Continued on Page 14 WASHINGTON — The Syrian military was foundering last year, with thousands of rebel fighters pushing into areas of the country long considered to be government strongholds. The rebel offensive was aided by powerful tank-de- stroying missiles supplied by the Central Intelligence Agency and Saudi Arabia. Intelligence assessments circu- lated in Washington that the Syrian president, Bashar al-As- sad, was losing his grip on power. But then the Russians arrived, bludgeoning C.I.A.-backed rebel forces with an air campaign that has sent them into retreat. And now rebel commanders, clinging to besieged neighborhoods in the divided city of Aleppo, say their shipments of C.I.A.-provided anti- tank missiles are drying up. For the first time since Af- ghanistan in the 1980s, the Rus- sian military for the past year has been in direct combat with rebel forces trained and supplied by the C.I.A. The American-supplied Af- ghan fighters prevailed during that Cold War conflict. But this time the outcome — thus far — has been different. “Russia has won the proxy war, at least for now,” said Michael Kof- man, a fellow at the Woodrow Wil- son Center in Washington. Russia’s battlefield successes in Syria have given Moscow, isolated by the West after its annexation of Crimea and other incursions into Ukraine, new leverage in deci- sions about the future of the Mid- dle East. The Obama administration is now talking with President Vladi- mir V. Putin’s government about a plan to share intelligence and co- ordinate airstrikes against the Is- lamic State and other militant groups in Syria, and Mr. Putin has thus far met his goals in Syria without becoming caught in a quagmire that some — including President Obama — had pre- dicted he would. But even Mr. Obama has ex- pressed wariness about an endur- ing deal with Moscow. “I’m not confident that we can trust the Russians or Vladimir Putin,” Mr. Obama said at a news conference on Thursday. “Whenever you are trying to broker any kind of deal with an individual like that or a country like that, you have got to go in there with some skepticism.” At the same time, some military MILITARY SUCCESS IN SYRIA IS GIVING PUTIN LEVERAGE EDGES U.S. IN PROXY WAR Russia Pushed Its Goals Without Becoming Lost in Quagmire This article is by Mark Mazzetti, Anne Barnard and Eric Schmitt. Continued on Page 9 At a time when the nation grapples with transgender issues, New York police officers face struggles while receiving support from the department. PAGE 22 NEW YORK 22-23 ‘We’re All Cops’ Life has become a series of contradic- tions: Stocked shelves and empty houses; 12 percent unemployment but no one to pick the coffee crop. PAGE 1 SUNDAY BUSINESS After the Bust in Puerto Rico Continued on Page 8 U(DF47D3)W+%!$!_!=!. Senator Mark S. Kirk of Illinois wants to distance himself from Donald J. Trump without alienat- ing Republican voters. Page 16. Squeezed in Illinois The party of Nelson Mandela suffered steep declines in support in nearly all of South Africa’s major urban areas, in- cluding Pretoria, the capital. PAGE 6 A.N.C. Slips in South Africa

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C M Y K Yxxx,2016-08-07,A,001,Bs-4C,E2

VOL. CLXV . . . No. 57,317 © 2016 The New York Times Company SUNDAY, AUGUST 7, 2016

WIESBADEN, Germany —The pianist starts his showabruptly, with a wail. The wordsand music are Arabic, but the painis clear in any language.

“How, God?” he sings, “Howcould God bring you thisscourge?”

He is performing for a Germanaudience in a quiet German townwith fairy-tale spires. But AehamAhmad is thinking of his pulver-ized, starving neighborhood inSyria, where a few years ago, be-fore coming to Germany as arefugee, he embarked on astrange career by playing con-certs in the rubble.

He jumps up, bobs his head inan impish little bow, and says byway of introduction: “I’m sorry,I’m not a good piano player. Ilearned in Syria. It’s not like Mo-zart and Bach, but this is the way

we play it.”In a Germany deeply torn be-

tween embracing and fearing themillion migrants who have ar-rived in the past year, Mr. Ahmad,27, has set himself the task ofputting a human face on his fellowrefugees. His aim is to ease theirintegration and maybe even help

the millions more, not least hiswife and children, whom he leftbehind.

That mission has become moreurgent lately, after Germany wasshocked by two separate attacksin which refugees linked to the Is-lamic State tried to kill civilians.Only the assailants died, but theattacks have left many Germansangry, anxious and ready to slamthe door shut. There is alreadytalk of accelerated expulsions.

Onstage, Mr. Ahmad flatters hislisteners, reassures them, ownsthem. He tells of his flight frombombs, hunger and repression.He sings of minarets and churchbells “calling for peace.” He de-clares that “terrorism has no reli-gion,” and that refugees come “tobuild Germany,” not to harm it.

“History will remember thatGermany has taken in the Mus-lims,” he declares, then leadsthem in a singalong of “All My Lit-

tle Ducks,” the German equiva-lent of “Mary Had a Little Lamb.”

He leaves the hall, as usual, in ashower of hugs and selfies.

But the next day in his tinyroom in the town of Wiesbaden, helacerates himself over the role he

has honed so well: He is “the goodrefugee,” making “good Ger-mans” feel good about them-selves. He cannot help seeing atouch of minstrel show in his act.He imagines how he might look

Syrian Sings to Germans of Sadness, and Hope

By ANNE BARNARD

Mr. Ahmad, who travels relentlessly to play, in Marburg in May.

ILVY NJIOKIKTJIEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Aeham Ahmad in 2014 in Yar-mouk, Syria. In Germany, heperforms to fight stereotypes.

RAMI AL-SAYED/A.F.P. — GETTY IMAGES

After a disastrous week of feudsand plummeting poll numbers,Republican leaders have con-cluded that Donald J. Trump is athreat to the party’s fortunes andhave begun discussing how soontheir endangered candidatesshould explicitly distance them-selves from the presidentialnominee.

For Republicans in close races,top strategists say, the issue is nolonger in doubt. One House Re-publican has already started air-ing an ad vowing to stand up to Mr.Trump if he is elected president,and others are expected to presssimilar themes in the weeksahead.

In the world of Republican “su-per PACs,” strategists are goingeven further: discussing adver-tisements that would treat Mr.Trump’s defeat as a given andurge voters to send Republicansto Congress as a check on a Hilla-ry Clinton White House. The dis-cussions were described by offi-cials familiar with the delibera-tions, several of whom spoke onthe condition of anonymity aboutconfidential planning.

For now, some of the party’smost vulnerable incumbents aresimply hoping to avoid what theysee as the taint of association withtheir standard-bearer.

Two members of Congresslocked in competitive races madethemselves scarce when Mr.Trump arrived in their states onFriday. The two, Senator RonJohnson of Wisconsin and Repre-sentative David Young of Iowa,held events elsewhere.

Senator Patrick J. Toomey ofPennsylvania, in a conference callwith reporters the same day, wasless subtle. “Donald Trump is in acategory unto himself,” Mr.Toomey said, predicting that hisstate’s voters “will make a com-

G.O.P. CANDIDATESAIMING TO ESCAPETRUMP’S SHADOW

ALARM ABOUT CONGRESS

After Week of Feuding,

Party Leaders Shift

Their Strategy

By JONATHAN MARTINand ALEXANDER BURNS

Continued on Page 17

DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Katie Ledecky, in the pool, and her U.S. teammates after a relay in Rio’s first swimming session. Olympic coverage, SportsSunday.

A Round of Applause: The Games Have Begun

RIO DE JANEIRO — Everyfour years, the same questionstend to surface before the Sum-mer Olympics: Will the host citybe ready? Is Usain Bolt still theworld’s fastest man? And whatsort of cushy digs will the UnitedStates basketball players find forthemselves?

The Games are underway, Boltis back to defend his sprinting ti-tles and, once again, the men’s andwomen’s basketball players fromthe United States are avoiding theathletes’ village. Carmelo Antho-ny, Kevin Durant, Diana Taurasiand the rest of their high-profileteammates are staying on a lux-ury cruise ship, docked at a pieron the other side of the city.

If the team’s lodging seemsstandoffish, that is by design.U.S.A. Basketball, the organiza-tion that oversees the nationalmen’s and women’s teams, hasshunned the athletes’ villagesince 1992. The team stayed on aship at the 2004 Games in Athens,

then used hotels in Beijing in 2008and London in 2012.

“The boat we’re staying on isvery nice, very secluded,” said An-gel McCoughtry, who is playing inher second Olympics. “Let’s behonest — how can our men’s andwomen’s teams stay in the vil-lage? They would get bombarded,especially the men’s team. Theywon’t have peace.”

The players, particularly themen, are exceedingly well paid as

U.S.A. Basketball Is Cruising

In Rio. Now, to Take the Court.

By ANDREW KEH

The U.S. basketball teams arestaying on a luxury ship.

NIC BOTHMA/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

Continued in SportsSunday, Page 10

One central fact about theglobal economy lurks just be-neath the year’s remarkableheadlines: Economic growth inadvanced nations has beenweaker for longer than it hasbeen in the lifetime of most peo-ple on earth.

The United States is addingjobs at a healthy clip, as a newreport showed on Friday, and theunemployment rate is relativelylow. But that is happening de-spite a long-term trend of muchlower growth, both in the UnitedStates and other advanced na-tions, than was evident for mostof the post-World War II era.

This trend helps explain whyincomes have risen so slowlysince the turn of the century,especially for those who are nottop earners. It is behind thecheap gasoline you put in the carand the ultralow interest ratesyou earn on your savings. It iscrucial to understanding the riseof Donald J. Trump, Britain’s vote

to leave the European Union andthe rise of populist movementsacross Europe.

This slow growth is not somenew phenomenon, but rather theway it has been for 15 years andcounting. In the United States,per-person gross domestic prod-uct rose by an average of 2.2percent a year from 1947 through2000 — but since 2001 has aver-aged only 0.9 percent. The econo-mies of Western Europe andJapan have done worse.

Over long periods, that shiftimplies a radically slower rise inliving standards. In 2000, per-person G.D.P. — which generallytracks with the average Ameri-can’s income — was about$45,000. If growth in the secondhalf of the 20th century had beenas weak as it has been since2000, that number would havebeen only about $20,000.

To make matters worse, fewer

ALow-Growth World: One Key

To Persistent Economic Anxiety

By NEIL IRWIN

In a special section, The Timesis publishing an excerpt from“The Underground Railroad”by Colson Whitehead.

This Week: A Novel

The diaries of a K.G.B. chief shed lighton an enduring enigma: What happenedto the Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallen-berg, who vanished in 1945? PAGE 6

INTERNATIONAL 4-12

Clues to a World War Mystery Maureen Dowd PAGE 1

SUNDAY REVIEW

Continued on Page 14

WASHINGTON — The Syrianmilitary was foundering last year,with thousands of rebel fighterspushing into areas of the countrylong considered to be governmentstrongholds. The rebel offensivewas aided by powerful tank-de-stroying missiles supplied by theCentral Intelligence Agency andSaudi Arabia.

Intelligence assessments circu-lated in Washington that theSyrian president, Bashar al-As-sad, was losing his grip on power.

But then the Russians arrived,bludgeoning C.I.A.-backed rebelforces with an air campaign thathas sent them into retreat. Andnow rebel commanders, clingingto besieged neighborhoods in thedivided city of Aleppo, say theirshipments of C.I.A.-provided anti-tank missiles are drying up.

For the first time since Af-ghanistan in the 1980s, the Rus-sian military for the past year hasbeen in direct combat with rebelforces trained and supplied by theC.I.A. The American-supplied Af-ghan fighters prevailed duringthat Cold War conflict. But thistime the outcome — thus far —has been different.

“Russia has won the proxy war,at least for now,” said Michael Kof-man, a fellow at the Woodrow Wil-son Center in Washington.

Russia’s battlefield successes inSyria have given Moscow, isolatedby the West after its annexation ofCrimea and other incursions intoUkraine, new leverage in deci-sions about the future of the Mid-dle East.

The Obama administration isnow talking with President Vladi-mir V. Putin’s government about aplan to share intelligence and co-ordinate airstrikes against the Is-lamic State and other militantgroups in Syria, and Mr. Putin hasthus far met his goals in Syriawithout becoming caught in aquagmire that some — includingPresident Obama — had pre-dicted he would.

But even Mr. Obama has ex-pressed wariness about an endur-ing deal with Moscow. “I’m notconfident that we can trust theRussians or Vladimir Putin,” Mr.Obama said at a news conferenceon Thursday. “Whenever you aretrying to broker any kind of dealwith an individual like that or acountry like that, you have got togo in there with some skepticism.”

At the same time, some military

MILITARY SUCCESS IN SYRIA IS GIVING

PUTIN LEVERAGE

EDGES U.S. IN PROXY WAR

Russia Pushed Its Goals

Without Becoming

Lost in Quagmire

This article is by Mark Mazzetti,Anne Barnard and Eric Schmitt.

Continued on Page 9

At a time when the nation grapples withtransgender issues, New York policeofficers face struggles while receivingsupport from the department. PAGE 22

NEW YORK 22-23

‘We’re All Cops’Life has become a series of contradic-tions: Stocked shelves and emptyhouses; 12 percent unemployment butno one to pick the coffee crop. PAGE 1

SUNDAY BUSINESS

After the Bust in Puerto Rico

Continued on Page 8

U(DF47D3)W+%!$!_!=!.

Senator Mark S. Kirk of Illinoiswants to distance himself fromDonald J. Trump without alienat-ing Republican voters. Page 16.

Squeezed in Illinois

The party of Nelson Mandela sufferedsteep declines in support in nearly all ofSouth Africa’s major urban areas, in-cluding Pretoria, the capital. PAGE 6

A.N.C. Slips in South Africa