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USACE-ERDC Coastal Storm Modeling System
Updates
Chris Massey, PhD Research Mathematician USACE-ERDC Coastal & Hydraulics Lab [email protected]
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ERDC’s Coastal Storm-Modeling System (ERDC CSTORM-MS)
Next Generation Workflow
Not just hurricanes and not just in the Gulf of Mexico.
Expandable and upgradeable system.
Application of high-resolution, highly skilled numerical models in a tightly integrated modeling system with user friendly interfaces
Provides for a robust, standardized approach to establishing the risk of coastal communities to future occurrences of storm events.
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SMS GUI’s
• New GUI for Project Overview
• New GUI for MORPHOS PBL Cyclone Model
• New GUI for CSTORM Coupled Models
• Updated GUI for AdH
• New GUI for WAM Wave Model
•Updated GUI for STWAVE
• Updated GUI for ADCIRC
Through the SMS GUI’s users can setup and execute models as well as visualize model results.
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What’s New
AdH coupling with STWAVE
SEDLIB enhanced with C2SHORE
Time varying bathymetry added to ADCIRC & STWAVE
Time varying ice concentration fields added to ADCIRC, STWAVE, and WAM
Full Morphology Coupling – ADCIRC + STWAVE+(ADH/C2Shore+STWAVE) (Oct 2013)
Working on coupling to GSSHA
ASGS for CSTORM-MS
FEMA-LRE Lake Michigan Storm Water Level Modeling
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Full Morphology Coupling
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ADCIRC
STWAVE T1
STWAVE T1
STWAVE T2
ADH ADH
STWT2 ADH/C2Shore
Information Flow
ADCIRC
STWT1
ADH/C2Shore
ADH/C2Shore
STWT2
ADCIRC
STWT1
ADCIRC
STWT2
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CHL’s Hurricane Sandy Modeling Efforts On Saturday Oct. 27, 2012, ERDC CHL was asked by the New York
District (NAN) through the UROC to provide estimates to potential flooding in the New York City area before 1200 EDT on Monday October, 29, 2012.
Provide potential coastal storm surge estimates using the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC
Provide potential inland flooding estimates using the overland flow model GSSHA
Advisory 20 from Saturday at 0500 EDT
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All estimates carried a disclaimer that the results were not intended to replace the official forecasts from NOAA.
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CHL’s ADCIRC Runs for Sandy
Surge Modeling for Sandy • Used two meshes
• EC2001FIMP Grid • FEMA Region 2 Grid
• Used tidal forcing and the imbedded asymmetric vortex Holland wind/pressure model • Wind model inputs derived from the NHC forecast using the ASGS • Advisories 22 – 31 were simulated • Advisory 26 results sent to NAN.
EC2001FIMP Grid FEMA Region 2 Grid
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Max Elevation (ft MSL)
EC2001FIMP Grid
Advisory 26
Advisory 29
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The Battery, NY Elevation (ft MSL)
EC2001FIMP Grid
UTC Time
Advisory 26
Advisory 29
Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft
UTC Time
UTC Time
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Comparison of Hurricane Sandy Water Elevations (ft MSL) at the NOAA Gauge at
the Battery, NY
Datum Conversions at this Location MSL to NAVD88 subtract 0.21 ft MSL to MLLW add 2.57 ft
UTC Time
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GSSHA New York Models
GSSHA is a gridded, physics-based full hydrology model ► Overland flow, stream flow,
groundwater, vadose zone, storm and tile drains, wetlands, erosion, constituent transport
GSSHA 2D Overland Flow Model used to predict inland flood inundation ► Use time-varying specified head
condition for storm surge 2 Models:
► Central NY Model @75m (right) ► Long Island Model @150m
Rainfall estimated from NWS plots
Storm surge from ADCIRC
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GSSHA Results from Advisory 26
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GSSHA Results from Advisory 26
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GFDL Met Option for ADCIRC
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The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. More detailed GFDL information is available at http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov. 1. Operational Hurricane Forecast 2. Ensemble Hurricane Modeling
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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Moving nested grids that track the center of the storm
Interpolation onto ADCIRC nodes using the fast KDTree search algorithm and inverse weighted distance averaging from the nearest 6 cells.
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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Zoomed
Wind Speed (m/s)
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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Zoomed
Sea Surface Pressure (hPa)
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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GFDL files are text ASCII, with each file containing information for one time record. All fields in a file are written as real numbers with f10.4 format Line 1: Total Number of Grid Points Line 2 – End: U V Temp Mixing
Ratio Accum Precip
Sea Level Pressure
Longitude Latitude Hurricane Hour
Nest Number
m/s m/s K kg/kg cm hPa decimal deg
decimal deg
Nest 1 – Cell Spacing = 0.5 degrees Nest 2 – Cell Spacing = 0.5/3 = 0.1667 degrees Nest 3 – Cell Spacing = 0.5/6 = 0.0833 degrees
Current Operational Model Spacing
New High Res: 0.5/9 = 0.0555 degrees
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GFDL Met for ADCIRC NWS=16
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The ADCIRC fort.22 file for NWS=16 is very similar to that of NWS=15 (Hwind) 1. # Metadata Header 2. WND_MULT – Wind Multiplier Value (Real Number) 3. MAX_EXTRAP_DIST – Maximum Extrapolation Distance (m) (Real Number) 4. CYCLE_TIME, RAMP_VAL, FILE_NAME …
#High Res. GFDL Hurricane Sandy Base 1.0 1.0e+04 0.0 1.0 hrhour90.2012102600 1.0 1.0 hrhour91.2012102600 2.0 1.0 hrhour92.2012102600 3.0 1.0 hrhour93.2012102600 4.0 1.0 hrhour94.2012102600 5.0 1.0 hrhour95.2012102600 6.0 1.0 hrhour96.2012102600 7.0 1.0 hrhour97.2012102600 8.0 1.0 hrhour98.2012102600
CYCLE_TIME – IN HOURS (Real Number) (Time relative to cold start if NWS=16, otherwise relative to hot start time if NWS=-16) RAMP_VAL – (Real Number) (Ramping multiplier) FILE_NAME – (Character 1024)
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ADCIRC Results for GFDL Sandy Forecast 2012/10/25 at 12 UTC