us/china grain trade trends and challenges
DESCRIPTION
US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges. Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2011. Percent GDP Growth. China: Growing Market Dynamics bring growing opportunities. Population 1.3 billion Rapid rise in incomes Changes in diets - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving LivesDeveloping Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
US/China Grain Trade
Trends and Challenges
Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development
Agricultural Outlook ForumFebruary 24, 2011
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Percent GDP Growth
2008 2009 2010 2011World 1.7 -1.9 3.9 3.5Latin America 4.2 -2.3 5.9 4.4USA 0.0 -2.6 2.8 2.9Canada 0.5 -2.5 3.0 3.2UK -0.1 -4.9 1.8 1.8Japan -1.2 -6.3 2.4 2.1China 9.6 9.1 10.5 9.8India 5.1 6.8 9.1 8.1
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China: Growing Market Dynamics bring growing opportunities
• Population 1.3 billion• Rapid rise in incomes Changes in diets• Middle class to grow to 700 million, 75%
Urban • Per capita income: – TODAY $5,000– SOON $10,000 - $40,000
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China in World Agriculture
• #1 producer of cotton, rice, pork, peanuts, numerous fresh fruits, milk
• #2 producer of corn• #1 importer of soybeans, cotton
Source: USDA/FAS PSD online
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China -Transition and Uncertainty
• Food security concerns• Lack of supply/demand information• Shift from self-sufficiency policy, net exporter
to net importer• Declining corn stocks• Food price inflation
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China Corn Consumption v. Production
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Total Use minus Production
Production
Total Use
Thou
sand
s met
ric to
ns
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China Import Trends
CHINA CORN & DDGS
USGC in the market since 1982
Exported 2.4 MMT DDGS to China
First significant purchases of corn since 1995 DDGS Corn
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
600000
0
2400000
1400000
Exports 2009-2010
20092010
MMT
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China Corn Import Outlook
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
2014/15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
th.m
t. We are Here
?
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China DDGS Imports (Jan-Dec)
2008 2009 20100
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
6,761
655,165
3,164,204
Met
ric to
ns
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China Corn Stocks to UsePrivate estimates
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Commercial Hogs Consume Grains
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Percent of Hogs in Commercial Production Facilities
35%
65%
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Growth of dairy feed is faster than swine, poultry and beef cattle
Dairy Feed Total Feed0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
13.97%
2.18%
Growth Rate
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
U.S. Corn Yield Projections
11.61
13.0614.19
13.12
16.63
18.14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1970
/1971
1973/1
974
1976/1
977
1979/1
980
1982
/1983
1985/1
986
1988/1
989
1991/1
992
1994
/1995
1997/1
998
2000/2
001
2003/2
004
2006/2
007
2009
/2010
2012/1
3
2015/1
6
2018/1
9
2021/2
2
2024/2
5
2027/2
8
2030/3
1
mt/h
a
ActualTrend 1Trend 2Trend 3
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
U.S. Ethanol Production
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2003
/4
2004
/5
2005
/6
2006
/7
2007
/8
2008
/9
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
mill
ion
gallo
ns
GrowthProduction
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
U.S. corn producers’ commitment
• Increase quality and timeliness of market information
• Increase production to meet export needs• We never close. Exports available every day.• Continue to innovate, adapt technology.• Sustain infrastructure to meet world demands.
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
USDA Import Projections
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
China
Other
Western Hemisphere
SEA
Asia
Middle East
North Africa
Europe
mill
ion
met
ric to
ns
113 mmt = 4.45 bbu
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
China Possible
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ChinaOtherWestern HemisphereSEAAsiaMiddle EastNorth AfricaEurope
mill
ion
met
ric to
ns
125 mmt = 4.92 bbu
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
US Corn Outlook
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
ProductionExportsFeed/ResidualFSIDomestic useEnding Stocksm
illio
n bu
shel
s
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Corn outlook plus China
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
ProductionExportsFeed/ResidualFSIDomestic useEnding Stocksm
illio
n bu
shel
s
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Concluding Thoughts
• How much will corn will China import• How much will China’s corn demand impact
US stock to end/use ratio• Impact on corn prices• What about DDGs • Is the US prepared for the impending wave of
demand• How will China manage transition to net
importer?
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving LivesDeveloping Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives
Thank You