usda, ars workshop poultry food assess risk model (poultry farm)
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USDA, ARS WorkshopPoultry Food Assess Risk Model
(Poultry FARM)
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A quantitative microbial risk assessment model (QMRA) for Listeria, Salmonella, Campylobacter and chicken meat.
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Predicts the public health impact of chicken meat destined for specific distribution channels and consumer populations
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Packaging
Consumption
Distribution Channel
CookingSafe
Unsafe
To maximize the public health benefit of chicken by ensuring its safety & consumption
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Hazard Identification
Exposure Assessment
Hazard Characterization
Risk Characterization
How many people will get sick and die?
Holistic
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Salmonella (Se)Campylobacter
(Cj)
Initial distribution of pathogens among servings
Listeria (Lm)
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Pathogen levels on chicken meat(mean log MPN/carcass)
Plant A Plant B Plant C Plant D Plant E
Lm 0 0 1.01 0.90 0
Se 0.11 0.17 0.74 0.19 0.48
Cj 3.65 2.37 3.86 4.19 3.45
Waldroup et al. (1992) J. Appl. Poultry Res. 1:226-234.
Cj levels are higher than Lm and Se, which are similar
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Relative differences among pathogens are simulated in Poultry FARM
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PlantPackaging
Contamination
DistributionAbuse
Growth/Death
PreparationContamination
Transfer
CoolingAbuse
Growth/Death
CookingUnder-cooking
Survival
ServingContamination
Transfer
TableConsumption
Dose-response
Predicts how pathogen levels change from farm-to-table
Key: Unit Operation _ Human Action _ Pathogen Event
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Physiological Differences
Se grows, whereas Cj dies at ambient temperatures
Burnette and Yoon (2004) Food Sci. Biotechnol. 13:796-800
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Predictive models can be developed for each pathogen event
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Noresponse
Infection Mildillness
Illness
Determines whether or not an illness occurs
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Depends on the outcome of the interaction between the pathogen, food and host
DiseaseTriangle
Pathogen Host
Food
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Illness Hospital Death
Determines the severity of illness
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There are important differences in severity among pathogens
Outcome Listeria Salmonella Campylobacter
Hospital 92.2% 22.1% 10.2%
Death 20.0% 0.78% 0.1%
Mead et al. (1999) http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/mead.htm
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Illness(C1)
Hospital(C2)
Death(C3)
Severity = C1 + 2C2 + 10C3
Weight factorCases
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Foodborne illness is a random event
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Monte Carlo simulation is a good method for modeling foodborne illness
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A + B = C
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Foodborne illness is a rare event
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Iteration
1
2
3
:
10,000
Discrete
1
0
0
:
0
Pert (0,2,4)
1.8
1.2
0.2
:
2.2
Antilog
63.1
0
0
:
0
Round
63
0
0
:
0
Incidence Extent Pathogen Number
=IF(RiskDiscrete=0,0,RiskPert)
Poultry FARM simulates pathogen-free servings
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Poultry FARM Tour
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Lot A Lot B
Which is higher risk?
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Input Pathogen
A B C D E
Q1Q2Q3
LmSeCj
0.0%16.7%78.1%
0.0%28.1%53.1%
29.2%47.9%90.6%
18.8%24.0%100.0%
0.0%9.4%82.3%
Waldroup et al (1992) J. Appl. Poultry Res. 1:226-234.
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Question A B C D E
Q4 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Q5 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Q6 15% 15% 5% 15% 10%
Q7 20% 20% 10% 20% 10%
Q8 25% 25% 15% 25% 15%
Q9 20% 10% 10% 30% 20%
Q10 35% 10% 15% 35% 35%
Q11 25% 5% 15% 25% 15%
Q12 20% 60% 20% 10% 80%
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QMRA Model = Poultry FARM 3.0
Iterations = 10,000 servings
Simulations = 100
Sampling = Latin Hypercube
Random Number Generator Seed = Random Selection
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Each random number generator seed produces a unique outcome of the
scenario
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A B C D E0
20
40
60
Scenario
Sev
erit
yListeria monocytogenes
AA BB CC DD EE
LmLm
SeSe
CjCj
0%0%
16.7%16.7%
78.1%78.1%
0%0%
28.1%28.1%
53.1%53.1%
29.2%29.2%
47.9%47.9%
90.6%90.6%
18.8%18.8%
24%24%
100%100%
0%0%
9.4%9.4%
82.3%82.3%
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A B C D E0
20
40
60
Scenario
Sev
erit
ySalmonella enterica
AA BB CC DD EE
LmLm
SeSe
CjCj
0%0%
16.7%16.7%
78.1%78.1%
0%0%
28.1%28.1%
53.1%53.1%
29.2%29.2%
47.9%47.9%
90.6%90.6%
18.8%18.8%
24%24%
100%100%
0%0%
9.4%9.4%
82.3%82.3%
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A B C D E0
20
40
60
Scenario
Sev
erit
yCampylobacter jejuni
AA BB CC DD EE
LmLm
SeSe
CjCj
0%0%
16.7%16.7%
78.1%78.1%
0%0%
28.1%28.1%
53.1%53.1%
29.2%29.2%
47.9%47.9%
90.6%90.6%
18.8%18.8%
24%24%
100%100%
0%0%
9.4%9.4%
82.3%82.3%
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A B C D E0
20
40
60
Scenario
Sev
erit
yLm + Se + Cj
AA BB CC DD EE
LmLm
SeSe
CjCj
0%0%
16.7%16.7%
78.1%78.1%
0%0%
28.1%28.1%
53.1%53.1%
29.2%29.2%
47.9%47.9%
90.6%90.6%
18.8%18.8%
24%24%
100%100%
0%0%
9.4%9.4%
82.3%82.3%
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It is important to consider multiple pathogens and post-process risk factors
when assessing food safety
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