use of short-term indicators and survey data for ...nov 21, 2014 · the main economic indicators...
TRANSCRIPT
USE OF SHORT-TERM
INDICATORS AND SURVEY
DATA FOR POLICYMAKING:
THE OECD EXPERIENCE
Martine Durand OECD Chief Statistician and Director of
Statistics
2nd IMF Statistical Forum Washington DC - November 18-19, 2014
Outline
1. PROVIDING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC DATA TO INFORM POLICYMAKERS
• Survey data and short-term indicators
• Users within and outside the Organization
• Data Quality
2. OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATORS (CLIs)
• Conceptual considerations
• Leading properties
3. PERFORMANCE of the OECD CLIs
• Before and during the crisis
• Communication strategy
4. CONCLUSIONS
DATA
Short-term economic data provided by
the OECD to inform policy makers
The Main Economic Indicators database (MEI) is an extensive collection of short-term economic indicators
-- including :
Survey data
»Business and Consumer tendency surveys
Short-Term Statistics
»Real indicators
» International trade
»Financial and monetary
»Employment
-- covering :
»OECD countries & key partners from 1960s Survey data and short-term statistics are used to construct the OECD
composite leading indicators
USERS
Users of OECD short-term economic
indicators
Within the OECD, the MEI is used to produce:
• OECD Economic Outlook
• Interim Assessments of the global economic situation
• Economic projections for G20 countries
• Composite Leading Indicators
Outside the OECD
• Economists; Economic and financial sector analysts
• Journalists; media
• Academic researchers
MEI dataset is one of the most visited on the OECD website
Strong demand for monthly Composite Leading Indicators from media and financial sector
DATA QUALITY
Reliability and soundness of OECD
short-term economic indicators
Internationally comparable
Coherent across datasets and over time
Consistent across countries
Compliant with relevant OECD and other international standards
Credible
Official sources
Face validity
Interpretability
Survey and financial indicators are the
most timely
Timeliness of indicators by subject areas Average days, OECD countries
Min Max Mode
(Frequency, %)
TENDENCY SURVEYS 0 30 0
(90.3)
FINANCIAL & MONETARY 0 0 0
(100)
REAL INDICATORS 30 120 90
(64.7)
INTERNATIONAL TRADE 60 90 60
(91.2)
EMPLOYMENT 15 90 75
(50)
Survey indicators generally outperform
other short-term statistics
Survey data
Financial & monetary
Int’l Trade Employment Real
indicators
NO TREND
FORWARD LOOKING
NO REVISION
TIMELINESS
STABILITY of the METHODOLOGY
INTERNATIONAL STANDARD
OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATORS
The OECD System of CLIs
Based on a set of Survey Data and Short-Term Statistics (STS)
Covers a wide range of countries
33 OECD countries + key partners and several zones
Broad brush picture of the short-term economic outlook
Provides early signals of turning points in economic activity
Qualitative indicators
No information on the speed/ strength of the business cycle
PERFORMANCE OF THE OECD CLIS
The aggregate OECD CLI leads by 5
months on average the reference series
(GDP)
GDP above the long-term trend GDP below the long-term trend CLI
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Leading properties of the CLI components
Average leads since the 1960s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Financial and monetary
Business and consumer
tendency surveys
Trade statistics Real Indicators Employment
mo
nth
s
Peak Trough
STS subject areas
Source: MEI, OECD
CLI components for US started
signalling the crisis as early as…
Jan 06 Jan 07
Aug 07
94
96
98
100
102
104
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dwellings started Consumer sentiment indicator Share prices: NYSE composite
GDP peak Oct 07
Source: MEI, OECD
CLIs performance during the Great
Recession for the G7 countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
United States
OECD Total G7 France United Kingdom
Italy Canada Japan Germany
Lead (in months) with respect to the peak in GDP Lead (in months) with respect to the trough in GDP
Source: MEI, OECD
The CLIs provide stable results
85
90
95
100
105
Jan
-2005
Apr-
2005
Jul-
2005
Oct
-2005
Jan
-2006
Apr-
2006
Jul-
2006
Oct
-2006
Jan
-2007
Apr-
2007
Jul-
2007
Oct
-2007
Jan
-2008
Apr-
2008
Jul-
2008
Oct
-2008
Jan
-2009
Apr-
2009
Jul-
2009
Oct
-2009
Jan
-2010
Apr-
2010
Jul-
2010
Oct
-2010
Jan
-2011
Apr-
2011
Jul-
2011
Oct
-2011
Jan
-2012
Apr-
2012
Jul-
2012
Oct
-2012
Jan
-2013
Apr-
2013
Jul-
2013
Oct
-2013
Jan
-2014
Apr-
2014
Jul-
2014
Vintages
Turning points for the US during the Great Recession
Assessing the CLI performance
in real time
Although the CLIs lead turning points in GDP with good stability properties, a delay exits between: • the real date of occurrence of the turning point and
• the date at which it can be really statistically identified
The OECD, in its releases, tries to interpret cautiously the first signal in order to: • Avoid wrong messages (noise)
• Be sufficiently confident about the sort of momentum in growth
Cautious interpretation of the first signal
in real-time October 2007 Press release: “OECD CLIs signal a weakening outlook for most major global economies”
Conclusions
• The OECD produces one of the largest infra-annual economic data collection to inform policy-makers and other users
• Surveys generally outperform STS and thus are very useful in the short-term horizon
• OECD CLIs • Detect turning points in GDP early • Provide stable results • In real-time, the first signal is interpreted cautiously • Good performance for the G7 during the Great Recession
• The demand for such indicators is very high
Thank you !
More information at:
http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/