USFS Region 1 SAS Analysis of Lake Chemistry, NADP, and IMPROVE data

Jill Grenon and Mark Story, Gallatin NF

• R1 Air Quality Monitoring Program Overview

• Non Parametric Statistical Methods

• Statistical Test Results

• Tentative Conclusions

USFS R1 Wilderness Air Quality Monitoring PlanMark Story - Gallatin NF, Thomas Dzomba - USFS R1/R4 AFA, Jill Grenon - Gallatin NF/MSU2/1/2008

INTRODUCTIONProtection of air quality values is a key component of both the Clean Air Act and Wilderness Act. The USFS Region 1 has 13 designated Wilderness areas. In terms of air quality, seven are designated as Class I Wilderness areas and six are designated as Class II Wilderness Areas. Class l areas in USFS R1 were designated by the Clean Air Act amendments of 1977. The 1977 Clean Air Act amendments assigned the Forest Service an “affirmative responsibility” to protect the Air Quality Related Values (AQRV’s) of Class l areas. Class II areas include all other areas of the country that are not Class I. Class II Wilderness areas are Class II for the Clean Air Act Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) regulations. Air quality protection authority (beyond ambient air quality standards and PSD increments) for Class II Wilderness areas therefore relies primarily upon the Wilderness Act with the air quality values titled Wilderness Air Quality Values (WAQV’s).

Region 1 has been actively monitoring AQRVs and WAQVs since 1989. Formal AQRV monitoring plans for regional Class I Wilderness areas were developed between 1989 and 1996. For Class II Wilderness areas, formal WAQV plans were developed in 2007 and 2008 in accordance with the 10-Year Wilderness Challenge. The following table summarizes the plan development for each Wilderness area; each plan is referenced at the end of this plan and tabulated below.

http://www.fs.fed.us/r1/gallatin/resources/air/

Wilderness Area Class Year of Wilderness designation

Size (acres)

AQRV or WAQV plan Plan date

Bob Marshall (BMW) 1 9/3/1964 1,009,356 Bob Marshall Wilderness Air Quality Related Values Management Plan

6/5/1989

Cabinet Mountains (CMW)

1 9/3/1964 94,272 Air Quality Related Values Management Plan for the Cabinet Mountains Wilderness Area Montana

6/1/1993

Gates of the Mountains (GMW)

1 9/3/1964 28,562 Air Quality Related Values Management Plan for the Gates of the Mountains Wilderness Area

12/31/1994

Wilderness Area Class AQRV or WAQV

AQRV or WAQV values

Bob Marshall (BMW)

1 AQRV visibility, aquatic ecosystems, wildlife

Cabinet Mountains (CMW)

1 AQRV scenery, aquatic ecosystems, vegetation, wildlife

Gates of the Mountains (GMW)

1 AQRV visibility, water, wildlife, flora

Selway-Bitterroot (SBW)

1 AQRV visibility, aquatic ecosystems, soils and geology

Anaconda-Pintler (APW)

1 AQRV scenery and visibility, water quality, wildlife, vegetation, fragrance, wilderness experience

Scapegoat (SGW) 1 AQRV visibility and scenery, water quality, wildlife, vegetation, odor, climate

Mission Mountains (MMW)

1 WAQV visibility and scenery, aquatic ecosystems, vegetation, wildlife

Absaroka- Beartooth (ABW)

2 WAQV visibility and scenery, alpine ecosystems, wildlife

Lee Metcalf (LMW) 2 WAQV visibility and scenery, lakes, wildlife

Great Bear (GBW) 2 WAQV visibility and scenery

Rattlesnake (RW) 2 WAQV visibility and scenery, lakes

Welcome Creek (WCW)

2 WAQV visibility and scenery

Gospel Hump (GHW)

2 WAQV visibility and scenery, lakes

monitoring item

BMW SGW CMW SBW APW GMW MMW

Phase 3 Lakes

Upper & Lower Libby Lakes

North Kootenai & Shasta Lakes

IMPROVE visibility

MONT1 & GLAC1* IMPROVE site

MONT1 IMPROVE site

CABI1 & GLAC1* IMPROVE site

SULA1 & SAWT1* IMPROVE site

SULA1 IMPROVE site

GAMO1 IMPROVE site

MONT1 & GLAC1* IMPROVE site

Lichens 12 reference sites – 2002 & 2003, 2010

3 reference sites – 1992, 2010

16 reference sites – 1992 - 1994, 2008

10 reference sites – 1992, 2008

3 reference sites – 2000 - 2001, 2008

4 reference sites – 2002, 2010

NADP Glacier NP MT05 NADP site*

Glacier NP MT05* and Clancy MT07* NADP sites

Glacier NP MT05* and Priest River ExpFst ID02* NADP sites

Lost Trail Pass MT97 NADP site

Lost Trail Pass MT97 NADP site

Clancy MT07* NADP site

Glacier NP MT05 NADP site

Snow Chemistry

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USFS R1 Class I Wilderness Areas AQRV’s

monitoring item

ABW LMW GBW RW WCW GHW

Lakes Twin Island & Stepping Stone Phase 3 lakes

3 lakes (2007) 8 lakes (2007) 5 lakes (2007) 3 lakes (2008)

IMPROVE visibility

YELL2* & NOAB1* IMPROVE sites

YELL1* & NOAB1* IMPROVE sites

GLAC1* IMPROVE site

MONT1 & SULA1 IMPROVE sites

MONT1 & SULA1 IMPROVE sites

SULA1 HECA1* SAWT1* IMPROVE sites

Lichens 2 reference sites – 2008

NADP Yellowstone Pk WY08* NADP site

Lost Trail Pass MT97 and Yellowstone Pk WY08* NADP sites

Glacier NP MT95* NADP site

Lost Trail Pass MT97 NADP site

Lost Trail Pass MT97 NADP site

Lost Trail Pass MT97, Priest River Exp Fst ID02*, Palouse WA24* NADP sites

Snow Chemistry

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USGS snow chemistry sites*

USFS R1 Class II Wilderness Areas WAQV’s

Twin Island Lake Absaroka Beartooth Wilderness

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

ue

q/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

Stepping Stone Lake Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

7/24

/93

7/21

/94

7/13

/95

7/24

/96

7/23

/96

8/01

/97

9/01

/99

7/26

/00

7/22

/01

8/1/

02

7/29

/03

7/28

/04

7/9/

05

7/8/

06

7/6/

07

AN

C u

eq

/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

Upper Libby LakeCabinet Mountain Wilderness

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

7/11

/92

7/12

/94

9/22

/94

7/18

/95

9/07

/95

8/08

/96

8/28

/97

7/28

/98

8/12

/99

9/17

/01

7/24

/02

9/21

/02

7/25

/03

7/11

/04

7/8/

05

7/22

/06

7/13

/07

AN

C u

eq/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

Lower Libby Cabinet Mountain Wilderness

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

AN

C u

eq/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

North Kootenai LakeSelway Bitterroot Wilderness

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

AN

C u

eq/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

Shasta LakeSelway Bitterroot Wilderness

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

AN

C u

eq

/L

ANC

ANC linear trend

Example of an IMPROVE baseline graph

R1 AIR QUALITYBEYOND EXCEL

• Excel limited in statistical powerExcel limited in statistical power

• Used SAS to run non parametric tests to Used SAS to run non parametric tests to test for statistically significant trends in test for statistically significant trends in USFS R1 AQ DataUSFS R1 AQ Data

• Analyzed R1 Lakes, NADP, and IMPROVE Analyzed R1 Lakes, NADP, and IMPROVE data.data.

Statistics

• SAS Institute statistical software was used to run analyses following draft USFS Data Analysis Protocol (DAP) recommendations in coordination with Lori Porth, RMRS Statistician

• Non-parametric test that can work with non-normal distributions and are not affected by errors, gross outliers, or missing data in the data set.

• A trend is detectable and considered significant if it meets our designated alpha level of α = 0.1 also shown as 90% confidence level. Additional confidence levels used were 95 (α = 0.05), 99 (α = 0.01), and 99.9 (α = 0.001). (Salmi et.al 2002).

Statistical Tests Used

• Mann-Kendall- run to see if there were significant trends for each parameter

• Kruskal-Wallace- run to see if seasons in the data set were statistically different

• Seasonal Mann-Kendall-run to look for trends while taking seasonality into account

• Sens slope estimator- magnitude of slope

USFS DAP Protocols

Raw data preparationExploratory data analysis

Sen Slope Estimator Mann-Kendall TestSeasonal Kendall Slope Estimator Seasonal Kendall Test

Slope estimates

Interpretation

p-values

Our Hypothesis

• Ho = Lake chemistry, air chemistry, and visibility show no trend through time

• H1 = Lake chemistry, air chemistry, and visibility are not stable and have either an increasing or decreasing trend over time

R1 AQ Lake data limitations

Mann-Kendall test was used for analysis of lakes. No seasonal data available

More than 10 years of data available but from an array of months

Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness

Bob Marshall Wilderness

Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness

Great Bear Wilderness

Scapegoat Wilderness

Gospel-Hump Wilderness

Anaconda Pintler Wilderness

Cabinet Mountains Wilderness

Mission Mountains Wilderness

Rattlesnake Wilderness

Welcome Creek WildernessGates of the Mountains Wilderness

Lee Metcalf Wilderness

Cabinet Mountain WildernessLower LibbyUpper Libby

Selway-Bitterroot WildernessNorth KootenaiShasta

Absaroka-Beartooth WildernessStepping StoneTwin Island

mg/L Lower Libby Upper Libby N. Kootenai Shasta Stepping Stone Twin IslandANC 99 ↓Cond 95 ↓ 95 ↓NH4NO3 95 ↑pH 99 ↑ 99 ↑SO4 95 ↓CaCl 95 ↓ 99 ↓

Percent confidence level and trend direction in MT Lakes

Lower Libby

Upper Libby

N. Kootenai Shasta

Stepping Stone

Twin Island

ANC -1.48461 -0.79179 -0.29692 -1.15917 -3.02614 -0.87592Conductivity -0.49487 0.14864 -1.28667 -2.1433 -2.03146 0.054827NH4 -0.90038 -0.64412 -0.3669 -1.49129 -0.69452 -0.76874NO3 -0.40423 -0.40017 1.00995 2.16918 -0.75593 0.18182pH 0.49487 0.19844 0.89077 1.22859 2.07846 2.57687SO4 -1.98435 -1.58359 -0.29692 0.55114 -0.19795 1.20439Ca -0.59457 0 -0.3959 1.15917 0.44593 1.0949Cl -1.09005 0 -1.97949 -0.54908 -3.02242 0.21898

Mann-Kendall Z-values for annual lake data

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

pH

Stepping Stone

Twin Island

Trends in Annual Lake pH

Trends in Annual Lake Conductivity

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

uS

/cm

Shasta

Stepping Stone

NADP sites in and around MT

Glacier

Lost Trail Pass

Clancy

Craters of the Moon

Tower Junction

Little Bighorn

NO3 95 ↑ 90 ↑NH4 99 ↑ 99 ↑ 95 ↑ 99.9 ↑ 99.9 ↑ 99 ↑cond 95 ↓ 90 ↑ 99 ↓pHSO4 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 95 ↓Ca 99 ↓ 95 ↑ 95 ↓ 90 ↓Cl 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓Na 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓K 95 ↓ 95 ↑ 99 ↓ 90 ↓Mg 95 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓ 99 ↓

Percent Confidence levels and trend direction of annual mg/L in Region 1 NADP sites

Tower Falls (WY08)mg/L

Little Bighorn (00)

Craters of the Moon (ID03)Clancy (07)

Glacier (05)

Lost Trail Pass (97)

NO3 2.21848 1.0428 0.98946 0.37541 1.82296 1.31364NH4 2.776 2.94304 2.18692 3.464 4.04221 3.00326cond -0.97753 -2.52302 1.93605 -3.14857 -0.92469 -0.54202pH 0.6095 1.004444 -0.78399 0.93872 0.29082 0.4593SO4 -4.17285 -5.4202 0.94743 -4.77498 -4.5706 -2.48132Ca -0.02642 -2.98305 2.41457 -2.54332 -1.50592 -1.66848Cl -2.96487 -5.26105 -0.98946 -5.35882 -3.96433 -3.71614Na -2.72123 -5.15479 -1.36167 -2.96026 -3.77801 -3.08668K -0.42415 -2.49437 2.31796 -3.15635 -1.77758 -1.4614Mg -2.02469 -4.56463 0.25332 -3.79965 -3.20424 -2.92238

Mann-Kendall z-values for annual mg/L at Region 1 NADP sites

mg/L Clancy GlacierLost Trail

PassCraters of the Moon

Little Bighorn Tower Falls

Annual NH4+ at NADP sites

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

mg

/L

 Clancy

 Glacier

Lost Trail

Craters

Tower

LittleBighorn

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

mg

/L

Clancy

Glacier

Craters

Tower

Little Bighorn

Annual Sulfate Concentration at NADP sites

Glacier NADP site percent confidence level and trend

direction

Parameters seasonality winter spring summer fall p-val seasonality winter spring summer fall p valNO3 Yes 99 ↑ 0.000155311 No 0.31207NH4 Yes 99.9 ↑ 1.59E-08 Yes 99 ↑ 90 ↑ 1.3552E-05cond Yes 99 ↑ 95 ↑ 1.97E-07pH Yes 0.00301739SO4 Yes 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 1.13E-07 Yes 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.021266Ca Yes 90 ↓ 90 ↓ 90 ↓ 95 ↓ 2.29E-10 Yes 95 ↓ 95 ↓ 99 ↓ 95 ↓ 8.26E-07Cl No 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.92843 No 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.093112Na No 99 ↓ 95 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.33066 No 99 ↓ 90 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.17718K Yes 95 ↓ 90 ↓ 99 ↓ 1.66E-13 Yes 99 ↓ 95 ↓ 95 ↓ 1.94E-11Mg Yes 99.9 ↓ 99 ↓ 99 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 3.63E-06 Yes 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 99.9 ↓ 0.00659594Inorganic N No 95 ↑ 0.09872

seasonal mg/L seasonal kg/ha

Glacier NADP Spring Trends

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

mg

/L

 NH4 

 NO3 

 SO4 

Glacier NADP Seasonal Sulfate Trends

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

mg

/L

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

Glacier NADP Seasonal Sulfate Trends

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

mg

/L

Winter

Spring

YELL2

ULBE1

SULA1

SAWT1

NOCH1

MONT1

MELA1

JARB1

HECA1

GLAC1

GAMO1

FOPE1

FLAT1

CRMO1

CABI1

IMPROVE SITES

GAMO1

SULA1

MONT1

GLAC1

CABI1

YELL2

Yell2 IMPROVE site on a clear day and on a hazy day

Spectrum Series

dv=0 Bext=10 SVR=390

Spectrum Series

dv=17 Bext=52 SVR=75

IMPROVE Parameter Dictionary

Parameter Definitiongraphical depiction

SO4 sulfateNO3 nitrate

EOMCOrganic Mass from Carbon

ESOIL Fine Soil soilECM Coarse Mass

ELAC

Light Absorbing Carbon

Esea_salt sea salt salt

Rbextsum aerosol extinctions

SVR

Standard Visibility Range

dv deciviewMF PM 2.5MT PM 10

Eexnction coefficient

Key IMPROVE Components

• PM2.5 components measured:– Sulfate (SO4)– Nitrate (NO3)– Organic Carbon (OMC)– Elemental Carbon (EC) also (LAC)– Coarse Particulate Matter (ECM)– Sea Salt– Fine Soils

Parameter CABI1 GAMO1 GLAC1 MONT1 SULA1 YELL2SO4 95↓NO3 95↓ 95↓ 95↓

EOMCEsoilECM 90↓ 95↓ 95↓ELAC 90↓salt

Rbext 90↓ 90↓ 90↓SVR 90↑ 99↑ 95↑ 95↑ 95↑DV 99↓ 90↓ 90↓MF 99↓ 95↓ 95↓MT 95↓ 95↓ 95↓

IMPROVE SITES: Annual Trend direction and confidence interval (using α level of significance)

CABI1 GAMO1 GLAC1 MONT1 SULA1 YELL2SO4 -1.2015 0 -2.02916 -0.30038 -1.28119 0.4671NO3 -2.10265 -2.4031 0.76986 -2.40311 1.0899 1.0899EOMC -0.60075 0 -0.34986 -0.30038 -0.6228 -0.6228Esoil 0 0 0.4898 -0.60075 -1.557 -1.557ECM -0.90113 -0.60075 -1.88922 -1.2015 -2.3355 -2.3355Sea_salt 1.50188 0 -0.27988 1.2015 -0.3114 -0.3114Rbext -0.90113 -0.30038 -1.95919 -1.50188 -1.7127 -1.7127SVR 1.50188 1.80225 3.28864 2.10263 2.1798 2.1798dv -1.50188 -1.2015 -2.86882 -1.50188 -1.8684 -1.8684MF -1.2015 -1.2015 -3.00876 -1.50188 -2.3355 -2.3355MT N/A N/A -2.37902 -1.50188 -2.1798 -2.1798ELAC 0 0 -1.95919 -0.60075 -0.7785 -0.7785

Mann-kendall Z-values for Annual IMPROVE sites

Annual Trends in SVR at IMPROVE sites

Annual Trends in SVR at IMPROVE sites

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

km

GAMO1GLAC1MONT1SULA1YELL2

100

150

200

250

300

km

SVR best 20% days withsummerSVR best 20% dayswithout summerSVR worst 20% dayswith summerSVR worst 20% dayswithout summer

YELL2 SVR best and worst days

YELL2 dv 20% best and worst days

02468

101214

dv

dv best 20% days withsummer

dv best 20% days without summer

dv worst 20% dayswith summer

dv worst 20% dayswith out summer

Conclusions• Trend interpretation, particularly cause/effect is difficult and complex

• Lake ANC decrease not statistically validated except at Stepping Stone Lake. The pH increasing trend and decrease in lake cation trends are not readily explainable

• Consistent NH4 increase trend at all of the NADP sites. This may be partially due to increased agriculture emissions such as feedlots in E. Oregon and E. Washington

• NO3 trend increases in lakes and NADP not as consistent as NH4 increase

• Consistent decrease SO4 at NADP sites is consistent with US trends the last 2 decades with reduced industrial sulfate emissions

• Consistent improvement in visibility at most of the IMPROVE sites as expressed in increased SVR, decreased deciviews, and reduced extinction

• 20% best and worst visibility day trends visually correlates well with wildfire emissions.

• More work in interpretation needs to be done before report finalization

• Laurie Porth – RMRS

• Scott Copeland – USFS/CSU Lander

• Greg Bevenger – Shoshone NF • Thomas Dzomba – USFS R1

Danke, Gracias, THANKSDanke, Gracias, THANKS