using esv for planning, policy, and management of de’s ...€¦ · wildlife condition 70% 35.5...

Using ESV for Planning, Policy, and Management of DE’s Tidal Wetlands

• Amanda Santoni

• NOAA Coastal Management Fellow

• Delaware Coastal Programs

• [email protected]

Amanda Santoni

Environmental Scientist III

Delaware Coastal Programs

Ecosystem Service Project Goals

• Do DE residents want to preserve tidal wetlands, and how much are they WTP?

• Which ecosystem services are priorities and what is the WTP for each?

• Obtain statistics on recreational use.

• Use these values to leverage funding for wetlands protection and management.

• Use priorities to help inform better management of existing wetlands.

Contingent Choice Valuation

• Multiple ecosystem services

• Use & non-use values

• Great for policy implications

• Allows for DE residents to voice how much they would actually pay

Attributes

Attribute No Action Levels

Acres (# of Acres) Loss of 400 acres (-400) -200,0,+200, +400

Cost ($/household/year) $0 $5, $15, $30, $50, $100, $200

Ecological Condition Score 55 out of 100 55,60, 65, 70

Water Quality Score 50 out of 100 50,60,70

Coastal Protection (For # of

houses/businesses)

Loss of protection for 40

houses/businesses (-40)

-40, no change, +40

Public Access No New New, No New

Management Responsibility No Change in ownership and

management

Government buys land,

Government obtains

easement, non-profit buys

land, non-profit obtains

easement, no change

Results: Recreation

Results: Recreation

1. Walking/Hiking

2. Fishing/Shellfish Harvesting

3. Swimming

Results: Recreation

1. Other

2. Other Wildlife Viewing

3. Birdwatching

Estimated Recreational Expenditures

Estimates per year for tidal wetlands

• Fishing: $38 million

• Wildlife viewing: $15 million

• Hunting: $9 million

*Accounted for inflation using CPI inflation

calculator from US Bureau of Labor Statistics

(2015$)

**These values should not be summed

Prior Knowledge

Results: Choice Experiment

Attributes

Per

household/year Per-unit/year

Acres Value Related to Lose 400

Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)

Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)

Acres - Gain 200 100.6 0.17(per acre)


Wildlife Condition Related to 55%

Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)

Wildlife Condition 65% 22.5 2.25(per percentage)


Water Quality Related to 50%

Water Quality 60% 32.4 3.24(per percentage)


Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40

Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)

Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)

New Access 5.1* -

Government buys land -1.73* -

Government obtains easement -6.92* -

Non-profit buys land 3.45* -

Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -


Attributes

Per

household/year Per-unit/year

Acres Value Related to Lose 400

Acres - Lose 200 $33.5 $0.17(per acre)

Acres – no change 92.9* 0.23*(per acre)



Wildlife Condition Related to 55%

Wildlife Condition 60% 14.4* 2.88*(per percentage)



Water Quality Related to 50%



Coastal Protection Related to Lose 40

Coastal Protection – No Change 32.5 0.81(per structure)

Coastal Protection – Gain 40 structures 47.5 0.59(per structure)

New Access 5.1* -

Government buys land -1.73* -

Government obtains easement -6.92* -

Non-profit buys land 3.45* -

Non-profit obtains easement 16.59 -

* Computed based on insignificant (α=0.1) parameter estimates

Scenarios

WTP/household/year Aggregate/year

Small Gain

Lose 200 acres; wildlife 60%$47.9 $16 million

339,046 households in DE

Scenarios


Small Gain


No ∆ From Today

Acres no change; wildlife/water 60%$172.2 $58 million


Scenarios


Small Gain


No ∆ From Today

Acres no change; wildlife/water 60%$172.2 $58 million

Medium Gain #1

Acres no change; wildlife 65%; water 60%;

coastal protection lose 0 structures

$180.3 $61 million

Medium Gain #2

Gain 200 Acres; wildlife 65%; water 60%; coastal

protection lose 0 structures

$188.0 $63 million

Large Gain

Gain 400 Acres; wildlife 70%; water 70%; coastal

protection Gain 40 structures; new access

$248.9 $84 million



Attribute-level Coefficient t-statistics p-value

Cost -0.010 -8.91* <0.00001

Acres

Acres - Loss 200 -0.577 -1.89* 0.059

Acres – no change -0.918 -1.6 0.110

Acres - Gain 200 -1.731 -2.04* 0.042

Acres - Gain 400 -2.553 -2.25* 0.025

Wildlife Condition

Wildlife Condition 60% 0.131 1.59 0.112

Wildlife Condition 65% 0.205 2.58* 0.010


Water Quality

Water Quality 60% 0.296 4.34* 0.00002

Water Quality 70% 0.488 6.44* <0.00001

Coastal Protection

Coastal Protection – No Change 0.288 4.04* 0.00006

Coastal Protection – Gain 40

structures 0.415 5.12*

<0.00001

New Access -0.087 -0.92 0.36

Management Options

Government buys land -0.016 -0.17 0.87

Government obtains easement -0.063 -0.69 0.49

Non-profit buys land 0.032 0.35 0.73

Non-profit obtains easement 0.151 1.7* 0.09

Cost * Income(in $1000) 7.11E-06 0.64 0.52

Acres * ln(Age) 0.0003 0.82 0.41

Acres * Education 0.0001 2.15* 0.03

Acres * Income (in $1000) 1.64E-06 0.6 0.55

Acres * New Castle County 0.0005 1.33 0.18

Acres * Sussex County 0.0007 2.14* 0.03

Acres * ln(Distance to wetland (in

kilometers)) 1.62E-05 0.15

0.88

Acres * Recreation 0.0009 3.2* 0.001

Coastal Protection * Close to

wetland (<1 kilometer) 0.0009 0.47

0.64

New Access * Recreation 0.196 1.66* 0.097

# of observations 8,220 (548 individuals)

Log Pseudolikelihood -2511.3147

Pseudo R2 0.1657

Attribute-level Coefficient t-statistics p-value

Cost -0.010 -8.91* <0.00001

Acres

Acres - Loss 200 -0.577 -1.89* 0.059

Acres – no change -0.918 -1.6 0.110

Acres - Gain 200 -1.731 -2.04* 0.042

Acres - Gain 400 -2.553 -2.25* 0.025

Wildlife Condition

Wildlife Condition 60% 0.131 1.59 0.112



Water Quality

Water Quality 60% 0.296 4.34* 0.00002

Water Quality 70% 0.488 6.44* <0.00001

Coastal Protection

Coastal Protection – No Change 0.288 4.04* 0.00006

Coastal Protection – Gain 40

structures 0.415 5.12*

<0.00001

New Access -0.087 -0.92 0.36

Management Options

Government buys land -0.016 -0.17 0.87

Government obtains easement -0.063 -0.69 0.49

Non-profit buys land 0.032 0.35 0.73

Non-profit obtains easement 0.151 1.7* 0.09

Cost * Income(in $1000) 7.11E-06 0.64 0.52

Acres * ln(Age) 0.0003 0.82 0.41

Acres * Education 0.0001 2.15* 0.03

Acres * Income (in $1000) 1.64E-06 0.6 0.55

Acres * New Castle County 0.0005 1.33 0.18

Acres * Sussex County 0.0007 2.14* 0.03

Acres * ln(Distance to wetland (in

kilometers)) 1.62E-05 0.15

0.88

Acres * Recreation 0.0009 3.2* 0.001

Coastal Protection * Close to

wetland (<1 kilometer) 0.0009 0.47

0.64

New Access * Recreation 0.196 1.66* 0.097

# of observations 8,220 (548 individuals)

Log Pseudolikelihood -2511.3147

Pseudo R2 0.1657

• Income, age, and proximity to wetlands did not have a significant effect

on # acres selected.

• Significant effect on # Acres for those who recreate, or have higher

education levels and those from Sussex county.

Results: Validity

Policy Recommendations?

Workshops to determine recommendations

• Allocate funding

• $$ for open space?

• $$ for a new approach?

• Ownership and management

• State/local/federal government

• Non-profit

• Ensure that state policies take into account

the importance of these habitats

• Migration corridors

• Open space acquisition ranking

Thank You!• NOAA Office For Coastal Management

• Tridec Technologies

• Bob Scarborough, Bonnie Arvay, Carl YetterDelaware Coastal Programs, DNREC

• George ParsonsUniversity of Delaware

• Rob JohnstonClark University, Worcester MA

• Pete Wiley, Chris EllisNOAA

• Ian YueNOAA Coastal Management Fellow, Connecticut

• Max Neilsen-Pincus

Portland State University

• Elizabeth SchusterThe Nature Conservancy

• UMCES IAN Image Library

Symbols Courtesy of the Integration and Application Network, University

of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/symbols/)

Questions?

Amanda SantoniEnvironmental Scientist

Delaware Coastal Programs

[email protected]

DemographicsDemographic Survey Sample Delaware Demographics

Gender a (%)

Female 55% 52%

Male 44% 48%

Other/Prefer

not to answer

1% n/a

Age a (%)

18-24 7% 13.%

25-34 14% 16%

35-44 15% 17%

45-54 23% 19%

55-64 20% 16%

65+ 21% 19%

Household Income b ($)

Mean $60,000-$79,999 $78,559

Median $60,000-$79,999 $60,321

Education C (%)

Some High

School

2% 12%

High School

Degree

20% 32%

Some College 38% 27%

Bachelor’s

Degree

23% 18%

Masters,

Professional or

Doctoral Degree

16% 12%

County of Residence d

(%)

Kent 21% 18%

New Castle 49% 60%

Sussex 30% 22%

Process

Public Workshops

Expert Consultations

Existing Data

Experimental Design

Survey Distribution

Data Analysis

Report & Outreach

Pilot Studies

Tidal Wetlands in Delaware

• 25% of Delaware is

wetland

• ~87,000 acres tidal

(~320,000 total)

Tidal Wetlands in Delaware

• Loss of 580 acres estuarine vegetated wetlands 1992-2007 (Tineret al, 2011).

• 92% decrease brackish marsh, 14% increase estuarine open water

under 69 cm SLR (NWF, 2008).

using esv for planning, policy, and management of de’s ...€¦ · wildlife condition 70% 35.5...

Documents